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Sunday, September 12, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (September 2021)

All confederations except OFC are now busy with their main group qualification stage.

  • UEFA finish their group stage in November. The 10 group winners qualify. The play-offs between the 10 group runners-up and the best 2 group winners from the Nations League 2020-2021 (finished third or lower in their group) for the remaining 3 berths are scheduled for March 2022, to be played as 3 knock-out paths with each path consisting of 2 single semi-finals and a single final.
  • CAF finish their group stage in November. The 10 group winners qualify for stage 3: 5 home-and-away play-offs, to be played in March 2022. The 5 winners of stage 3 qualify. In January 2022 the postponed African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played in Cameroon. The match schedule for this tournament is known and included in these simulations.
  • CONMEBOL finish their group stage in March. Top 4 qualifies, number 5 goes to the interconfederational play-offs, to be staged in the second week of the June 2022 window. The date for the draw of the pairing of confederations in these IPO's is yet unknown.
  • CONCACAF finish their group stage in March. Top 3 qualifies, number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs.
  • AFC finish their group stage in March. Numbers 1 and 2 of both groups qualify, numbers 3 of both groups play a single play-off in the first week of the June 2022 window to determine the AFC number 5, which goes to the interconfederational play-offs.
  • OFC's qualification format is still unknown. They will probably start (and finish) their qualification in the January 2022 window. Their final top dog goes to the interconfederational play-offs.


The draw for the groups in the final tournament in Qatar is currently scheduled to take place in April 2022, so after all group stages are finished but before all four participants in the IPO's are known. This draw will be completely seeded based on the FIFA ranking, with Qatar as host automatically placed in pot 1. It is yet unclear which ranking will be used for the seeding and even if it's possible to perform the draw in April while 2 berths are still vacant. 


FIFA could apply the principle that the IPO-winners are seeded on the highest ranked team in each IPO, but for that the confederation pairing needs to be known and the main drawback of this approach is that in the IPO's highly ranked teams like Colombia or Japan might participate, so that the winner of an IPO might be seeded for the draw in pot 2 for instance, while the eventual winner of the IPO might be the other lower ranked team, possibly even a 'pot 4' team.

Another option is to perform the draw after the June 2022 window. Then all 32 qualifiers are known, but maybe FIFA needs the seven months time between April and the start of the World Cup in November for the organisation and production of all merchandise and June will simply be too late for them. Again, FIFA has currently scheduled the draw in April while it already is known for at least a year that the IPO's could only be scheduled in June 2022.


Which seeding ranking to use for the draw ? Logically that will be the April 2022 ranking after the qualification group matches for all confederations are finished. This implies however that the European and African play-offs also will be included. In comparison, last time around for the seeding of the draw for Russia 2018 FIFA used the ranking of October 2017, this was the ranking without the European play-offs, the IPO's and the final group matches in Africa which were all played in November 2017.

Also in case of a postponed draw in June, still the April ranking could be used to seed the teams of course.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the UEFA Nations League Finals next month, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).


UEFA


First the UEFA Nations League Final Four, played in October in Italy. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May:

to win a semi-final

Italy

82,08

12,07

Belgium

73,33

17,68

France

26,67

-17,68

Spain

17,92

-12,07


to win the UNL

Italy

58,87

20,43

Belgium

27,57

-1,38

France

8,65

-11,82

Spain

4,91

-7,23


Then the qualification for the World Cup. First the group stage. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Portugal

90,86

9,14

0,00

0,00

0,00

Serbia

9,13

89,41

1,46

0,00

0,00

Luxembourg

0,01

1,45

65,52

30,89

2,13

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

25,14

48,82

26,04

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

7,88

20,29

71,83

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Spain

62,06

35,02

2,92

0,00

0,00

Sweden

36,30

57,06

6,55

0,09

0,00

Greece

1,64

7,84

81,05

8,50

0,97

Kosovo

0,00

0,08

7,59

65,00

27,33

Georgia

0,00

0,00

1,89

26,41

71,70

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Italy

83,05

16,79

0,16

0,00

0,00

Switzerland

16,85

80,28

2,69

0,18

0,00

Northern Ireland

0,10

2,39

61,27

35,46

0,78

Bulgaria

0,00

0,54

35,75

62,65

1,06

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,13

1,71

98,16

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

France

97,62

2,38

0,00

0,00

0,00

Ukraine

0,04

41,46

34,03

22,73

1,74

Finland

2,25

36,83

35,73

20,19

5,00

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,09

19,07

26,18

39,55

15,11

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,26

4,06

17,53

78,15

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Belgium

99,93

0,07

0,00

0,00

0,00

Czech Republic

0,00

59,95

39,71

0,34

0,00

Wales

0,07

39,87

59,08

0,98

0,00

Belarus

0,00

0,11

1,09

66,26

32,54

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,12

32,42

67,46

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Denmark

99,95

0,05

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Scotland

0,04

57,68

32,25

10,03

0,00

0,00

Israel

0,01

39,46

46,69

13,83

0,01

0,00

Austria

0,00

2,81

21,04

75,86

0,29

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,27

94,68

5,03

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

5,02

94,97

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Netherlands

84,01

13,62

2,35

0,02

0,00

0,00

Norway

10,41

41,47

45,97

2,15

0,00

0,00

Turkey

5,54

44,46

47,99

2,00

0,01

0,00

Montenegro

0,04

0,45

3,68

91,04

4,79

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,01

4,77

93,18

2,04

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

2,02

97,96

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Croatia

79,24

19,39

1,26

0,11

0,00

0,00

Russia

20,04

68,87

9,62

1,47

0,00

0,00

Slovakia

0,68

7,71

49,92

39,64

1,98

0,07

Slovenia

0,04

4,01

38,56

52,97

3,81

0,61

Cyprus

0,00

0,01

0,03

1,80

51,00

47,16

Malta

0,00

0,01

0,61

4,01

43,21

52,16

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

England

99,80

0,19

0,01

0,00

0,00

0,00

Poland

0,18

82,04

12,68

5,10

0,00

0,00

Hungary

0,01

8,63

45,98

45,38

0,00

0,00

Albania

0,01

9,14

41,33

49,52

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

98,73

1,27

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

1,27

98,73

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Germany

98,18

1,64

0,17

0,01

0,00

0,00

Romania

1,27

59,38

27,99

10,00

1,36

0,00

Armenia

0,44

19,39

31,86

40,22

8,09

0,00

North Macedonia

0,11

18,52

36,23

35,22

9,92

0,00

Iceland

0,00

1,07

3,75

14,55

80,25

0,38

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,38

99,62


Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team

PO

nr2

via UNL

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

Wales

99,93

39,87

60,06

17,35

82,58

17,36

Czech Republic

98,77

59,95

38,82

1,36

97,41

1,38

Austria

98,26

2,81

95,45

1,57

96,69

1,60

Serbia

89,41

89,41

0,00

39,20

50,21

43,84

Poland

82,04

82,04

0,00

81,76

0,28

99,66

Switzerland

80,28

80,28

0,00

29,04

51,24

36,17

Russia

68,87

68,87

0,00

62,88

5,99

91,30

Romania

59,38

59,38

0,00

45,83

13,55

77,18

Scotland

57,68

57,68

0,00

54,83

2,85

95,06

Sweden

57,06

57,06

0,00

25,06

32,00

43,92

Turkey

44,46

44,46

0,00

43,75

0,71

98,40

Norway

41,47

41,47

0,00

40,93

0,54

98,70

Ukraine

41,46

41,46

0,00

5,68

35,78

13,70

Israel

39,46

39,46

0,00

33,20

6,26

84,14

Spain

37,94

35,02

2,92

6,51

31,43

17,16

Finland

36,83

36,83

0,00

0,61

36,22

1,66

Croatia

19,39

19,39

0,00

19,07

0,32

98,35

Armenia

19,39

19,39

0,00

18,44

0,95

95,10

Bosnia-Herzegovina

19,07

19,07

0,00

0,57

18,50

2,99

North Macedonia

18,52

18,52

0,00

12,50

6,02

67,49

Italy

16,85

16,79

0,06

5,45

11,40

32,34

Netherlands

13,62

13,62

0,00

13,60

0,02

99,85

Hungary

11,05

8,63

2,42

8,44

2,61

76,38

Portugal

9,14

9,14

0,00

6,64

2,50

72,65

Albania

9,14

9,14

0,00

8,92

0,22

97,59

Greece

7,84

7,84

0,00

3,12

4,72

39,80

Slovakia

7,71

7,71

0,00

7,64

0,07

99,09

Slovenia

4,27

4,01

0,26

3,40

0,87

79,63

Northern Ireland

2,39

2,39

0,00

0,07

2,32

2,93

France

2,38

2,38

0,00

0,17

2,21

7,14

Germany

1,64

1,64

0,00

1,64

0,00

100,00

Luxembourg

1,45

1,45

0,00

0,04

1,41

2,76

Iceland

1,07

1,07

0,00

0,03

1,04

2,80

Bulgaria

0,54

0,54

0,00

0,00

0,54

0,00

Montenegro

0,46

0,45

0,01

0,42

0,04

91,30

Kazakhstan

0,26

0,26

0,00

0,00

0,26

0,00

England

0,19

0,19

0,00

0,19

0,00

100,00

Belarus

0,11

0,11

0,00

0,00

0,11

0,00

Kosovo

0,08

0,08

0,00

0,00

0,08

0,00

Belgium

0,07

0,07

0,00

0,03

0,04

42,86

Denmark

0,05

0,05

0,00

0,05

0,00

100,00

Cyprus

0,01

0,01

0,00

0,01

0,00

100,00

Malta

0,01

0,01

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May (after MD3).

Poland

58,92

[71,82]

20,05

Switzerland

53,94

[67,19]

9,55

Serbia

44,22

[49,46]

7,16

Wales

42,49

[42,52]

5,47

Russia

40,98

[59,50]

19,79

Czech Republic

40,69

[41,20]

16,10

Sweden

34,26

[60,04]

8,50

Scotland

28,21

[48,91]

12,72

Norway

27,45

[66,19]

11,50

Spain

27,37

[72,14]

5,65

Turkey

26,55

[59,72]

-8,59

Romania

25,48

[42,91]

18,18

Austria

20,09

[20,45]

-24,50

Israel

17,58

[44,55]

12,22

Ukraine

17,44

[42,06]

-5,25

Croatia

14,31

[73,80]

-4,59

Italy

13,41

[79,58]

-6,16

Netherlands

11,31

[83,04]

-13,67

Finland

9,04

[24,55]

2,16

Portugal

7,48

[81,84]

-1,99

Armenia

6,86

[35,38]

-2,58

Hungary

6,04

[54,66]

-23,79

North Macedonia

5,30

[28,62]

-7,55

Slovakia

4,15

[53,83]

-5,85

Bosnia-Herzegovina

3,73

[19,56]

0,79

Albania

3,49

[38,18]

0,86

Greece

3,18

[40,56]

0,61

France

1,86

[78,15]

-1,56

Slovenia

1,68

[39,34]

-7,14

Germany

1,28

[78,05]

-9,34

Northern Ireland

0,40

[16,74]

-0,16

England

0,16

[84,21]

-9,83

Iceland

0,15

[14,02]

-5,09

Luxembourg

0,15

[10,34]

0,09

Montenegro

0,14

[30,43]

-0,88

Belgium

0,07

[100,00]

-9,73

Denmark

0,05

[100,00]

-2,33

Bulgaria

0,04

[7,41]

0,02

Kosovo

0,03

[37,50]

-0,01

Belarus

0,01

[9,09]

-0,23

Kazakhstan

0,01

[3,85]

-0,03

Republic of Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,27

Cyprus

0,00

[0,00]

-0,19

Georgia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,09

Azerbaijan

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Lithuania

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00


The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May (after MD3).

Switzerland

35,31

[65,46]

8,76

Poland

28,11

[47,71]

8,36

Wales

23,78

[55,97]

2,94

Czech Republic

22,55

[55,42]

11,19

Serbia

21,51

[48,64]

3,98

Sweden

20,42

[59,60]

6,44

Spain

20,09

[73,40]

4,26

Russia

16,53

[40,34]

8,26

Norway

12,11

[44,12]

5,33

Turkey

10,78

[40,60]

-5,74

Italy

10,57

[78,82]

-3,58

Scotland

9,82

[34,81]

4,28

Ukraine

9,11

[52,24]

-3,32

Romania

8,18

[32,10]

5,95

Austria

7,75

[38,58]

-10,99

Croatia

7,43

[51,92]

-1,61

Netherlands

6,95

[61,45]

-9,52

Israel

5,71

[32,48]

4,21

Portugal

5,64

[75,40]

-0,93

Finland

3,92

[43,36]

1,13

Hungary

2,45

[40,56]

-10,46

Armenia

1,73

[25,22]

-0,54

Slovakia

1,51

[36,39]

-1,90

France

1,44

[77,42]

-0,91

Greece

1,38

[43,40]

0,52

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,26

[33,78]

0,17

North Macedonia

1,22

[23,02]

-2,00

Albania

1,04

[29,80]

0,35

Germany

0,73

[57,03]

-5,56

Slovenia

0,51

[30,36]

-2,13

Northern Ireland

0,17

[42,50]

-0,01

England

0,07

[43,75]

-6,27

Belgium

0,05

[71,43]

-7,47

Iceland

0,05

[33,33]

-1,52

Denmark

0,04

[80,00]

-1,33

Luxembourg

0,03

[20,00]

0,03

Montenegro

0,02

[14,29]

-0,18

Kosovo

0,02

[66,67]

0,02

Bulgaria

0,01

[25,00]

0,01

Republic of Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,10

Belarus

0,00

[0,00]

-0,06

Georgia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,03

Cyprus

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02

Lithuania

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Azerbaijan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00


Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May (after MD3).

team

nr1

PO

Qtot

diff

Denmark

99,95

0,04

99,99

1,95

Belgium

99,93

0,05

99,98

4,46

England

99,80

0,07

99,87

8,16

France

97,62

1,44

99,06

2,28

Germany

98,18

0,73

98,91

10,84

Portugal

90,86

5,64

96,50

3,24

Italy

83,05

10,57

93,62

4,50

Netherlands

84,01

6,95

90,96

17,22

Croatia

79,24

7,43

86,67

24,95

Spain

62,06

20,09

82,15

-2,41

Sweden

36,30

20,42

56,72

12,75

Switzerland

16,85

35,31

52,16

0,65

Russia

20,04

16,53

36,57

-7,55

Serbia

9,13

21,51

30,64

-0,12

Poland

0,18

28,11

28,29

0,96

Wales

0,07

23,78

23,85

-7,31

Czech Republic

0,00

22,55

22,55

9,56

Norway

10,41

12,11

22,52

6,79

Turkey

5,54

10,78

16,32

-33,79

Scotland

0,04

9,82

9,86

3,08

Romania

1,27

8,18

9,45

5,51

Ukraine

0,04

9,11

9,15

-6,22

Austria

0,00

7,75

7,75

-12,95

Finland

2,25

3,92

6,17

1,05

Israel

0,01

5,71

5,72

4,09

Greece

1,64

1,38

3,02

0,92

Hungary

0,01

2,45

2,46

-17,31

Slovakia

0,68

1,51

2,19

-8,72

Armenia

0,44

1,73

2,17

-7,50

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,09

1,26

1,35

-0,04

North Macedonia

0,11

1,22

1,33

-9,16

Albania

0,01

1,04

1,05

0,17

Slovenia

0,04

0,51

0,55

-5,91

Northern Ireland

0,10

0,17

0,27

0,02

Montenegro

0,04

0,02

0,06

-0,33

Iceland

0,00

0,05

0,05

-3,36

Luxembourg

0,01

0,03

0,04

0,02

Kosovo

0,00

0,02

0,02

-0,01

Bulgaria

0,00

0,01

0,01

0,01

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,17

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,16

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,11

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,04

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


CAF


First the qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Algeria

83,67

15,90

0,43

0,00

Burkina Faso

16,16

82,53

1,28

0,03

Niger

0,17

1,56

97,36

0,91

Djibouti

0,00

0,01

0,93

99,06

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Tunisia

92,58

6,58

0,73

0,11

Zambia

4,97

58,56

27,81

8,66

Equatorial Guinea

2,03

29,42

46,47

22,08

Mauritania

0,42

5,44

24,99

69,15

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Nigeria

95,39

4,29

0,31

0,01

Liberia

3,00

56,00

33,94

7,06

Cape Verde Islands

1,52

36,49

49,52

12,47

Central African Republic

0,09

3,22

16,23

80,46

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Cote d'Ivoire

66,07

28,71

4,64

0,58

Cameroon

30,02

55,28

11,09

3,61

Malawi

3,09

9,93

52,33

34,65

Mozambique

0,82

6,08

31,94

61,16

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Mali

70,54

19,64

7,88

1,94

Uganda

16,87

44,19

24,51

14,43

Kenya

9,62

22,40

42,71

25,27

Rwanda

2,97

13,77

24,90

58,36

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Egypt

68,35

22,78

7,91

0,96

Libya

26,31

47,08

23,14

3,47

Gabon

4,25

22,55

46,77

26,43

Angola

1,09

7,59

22,18

69,14

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

South Africa

44,81

38,92

13,22

3,05

Ghana

45,68

38,14

11,95

4,23

Ethiopia

7,48

16,01

46,11

30,40

Zimbabwe

2,03

6,93

28,72

62,32

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Senegal

95,25

4,38

0,37

0,00

Namibia

4,03

59,07

31,64

5,26

Congo

0,62

29,63

47,73

22,02

Togo

0,10

6,92

20,26

72,72

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Morocco

81,95

13,19

4,52

0,34

Guinea-Bissau

8,23

40,45

41,95

9,37

Guinea

9,40

37,87

34,84

17,89

Sudan

0,42

8,49

18,69

72,40

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Benin

50,60

28,17

17,09

4,14

Congo DR

26,06

36,89

24,23

12,82

Tanzania

21,07

26,56

39,68

12,69

Madagascar

2,27

8,38

19,00

70,35


Then the qualification for the play-off round. The top 5 play-off participants are seeded (based on the November 2021 ranking), the other 5 are unseeded. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in April (before MD1).

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Nigeria

95,34

0,05

99,95

95,39

7,86

Senegal

95,25

0,00

100,00

95,25

0,04

Tunisia

92,58

0,00

100,00

92,58

19,35

Algeria

83,67

0,00

100,00

83,67

0,07

Morocco

81,95

0,00

100,00

81,95

-1,13

Mali

2,22

68,32

3,15

70,54

12,20

Egypt

23,42

44,93

34,26

68,35

-2,26

Cote d'Ivoire

11,88

54,19

17,98

66,07

2,46

Benin

0,02

50,58

0,04

50,60

13,27

Ghana

6,10

39,58

13,35

45,68

-18,16

South Africa

0,19

44,62

0,42

44,81

22,55

Cameroon

4,68

25,34

15,59

30,02

-2,27

Libya

0,00

26,31

0,00

26,31

19,83

Congo DR

0,11

25,95

0,42

26,06

-14,97

Tanzania

0,00

21,07

0,00

21,07

15,03

Uganda

0,02

16,85

0,12

16,87

-7,90

Burkina Faso

2,48

13,68

15,35

16,16

0,05

Kenya

0,00

9,62

0,00

9,62

-3,16

Guinea

0,06

9,34

0,64

9,40

0,42

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

8,23

0,00

8,23

5,03

Ethiopia

0,00

7,48

0,00

7,48

3,49

Zambia

0,02

4,95

0,40

4,97

-13,66

Gabon

0,00

4,25

0,00

4,25

-11,30

Namibia

0,00

4,03

0,00

4,03

2,04

Malawi

0,00

3,09

0,00

3,09

-0,32

Liberia

0,00

3,00

0,00

3,00

1,12

Rwanda

0,00

2,97

0,00

2,97

-1,14

Madagascar

0,00

2,27

0,00

2,27

-13,33

Zimbabwe

0,00

2,03

0,00

2,03

-7,88

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

2,03

0,00

2,03

-1,44

Cape Verde Islands

0,01

1,51

0,66

1,52

-7,66

Angola

0,00

1,09

0,00

1,09

-6,27

Mozambique

0,00

0,82

0,00

0,82

0,13

Congo

0,00

0,62

0,00

0,62

-1,57

Sudan

0,00

0,42

0,00

0,42

-4,32

Mauritania

0,00

0,42

0,00

0,42

-4,25

Niger

0,00

0,17

0,00

0,17

-0,12

Togo

0,00

0,10

0,00

0,10

-0,51

Central African Republic

0,00

0,09

0,00

0,09

-1,32

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings. Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in April (before MD1):

team

qualify

diff Q

Senegal

65,82

[69,10]

-6,74

Algeria

63,64

[76,06]

-1,96

Nigeria

62,38

[65,39]

0,31

Tunisia

60,40

[65,24]

11,80

Morocco

55,28

[67,46]

-2,29

Cote d'Ivoire

32,33

[48,93]

1,47

Egypt

31,59

[46,22]

-2,34

Mali

24,37

[34,55]

3,81

Ghana

19,76

[43,26]

-8,46

South Africa

14,84

[33,12]

8,46

Cameroon

12,96

[43,17]

0,33

Benin

12,78

[25,26]

4,19

Congo DR

7,45

[28,59]

-2,98

Burkina Faso

6,94

[42,95]

-0,50

Libya

5,17

[19,65]

4,09

Uganda

4,63

[27,45]

-1,07

Tanzania

3,42

[16,23]

2,75

Guinea

2,72

[28,94]

0,54

Kenya

2,31

[24,01]

0,05

Guinea-Bissau

1,92

[23,33]

1,39

Ethiopia

1,45

[19,39]

0,86

Zambia

1,39

[27,97]

-3,97

Gabon

1,14

[26,82]

-2,29

Namibia

1,06

[26,30]

0,71

Liberia

0,66

[22,00]

0,33

Rwanda

0,56

[18,86]

0,07

Madagascar

0,46

[20,26]

-1,97

Equatorial Guinea

0,44

[21,67]

-0,10

Malawi

0,44

[14,24]

-0,08

Zimbabwe

0,41

[20,20]

-1,68

Cape Verde Islands

0,38

[25,00]

-1,83

Angola

0,29

[26,61]

-0,96

Congo

0,18

[29,03]

-0,18

Mauritania

0,13

[30,95]

-0,80

Sudan

0,11

[26,19]

-0,77

Mozambique

0,11

[13,41]

0,01

Niger

0,04

[23,53]

0,02

Central African Republic

0,02

[22,22]

-0,17

Togo

0,02

[20,00]

-0,05

Djibouti

0,00

[0,00]

0,00


CONMEBOL


The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points,  compared to the previous simulations in January (after MD4):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Brazil

99,98

0,94

0,01

-0,62

Argentina

98,59

12,02

1,06

-5,77

Uruguay

78,12

6,50

12,63

0,64

Colombia

61,51

24,32

20,67

1,92

Ecuador

31,46

-17,83

24,97

8,02

Paraguay

15,16

-0,61

17,07

5,04

Peru

10,09

1,49

13,34

5,07

Chile

4,52

-13,37

8,64

-4,51

Venezuela

0,41

-13,30

0,98

-9,87

Bolivia

0,16

-0,16

0,63

0,08


CONCACAF


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

Mexico

60,45

27,04

9,47

2,20

0,61

0,21

0,02

0,00

USA

30,51

44,00

17,43

5,52

1,76

0,54

0,22

0,02

Canada

7,48

19,32

36,20

18,88

9,73

5,22

2,32

0,85

Panama

1,04

4,88

14,65

25,53

22,05

15,55

10,91

5,39

Costa Rica