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Saturday, September 25, 2021

FIFA ranking: October 2021 probable ranking

The FIFA October international match window starts October 4th. All confederations except OFC are still in full swing qualifying mode for the World Cup next year in Qatar. 


CONMEBOL and CONCACAF have a resp. two and one day extension to be able to accommodate 3 match days. CONCACAF plays MDs 4-6 in the octogonal. In South America the postponed match day 5 from March is played, besides MDs 11 and 12.

A big question mark hangs above the suspended match Brazil - Argentina from September: where is the room in the match calendar to resume/replay this match ?

In Europe also the Nations League 2021 Finals will be played in Italy with the four group winners of league A: France, Italy, Belgium and Spain. 

CAF and AFC continue their qualification group stage with MDs 3 and 4.


In Asia also the home-and-away stage 3 play-offs in the qualification of the Asian Cup of Nations 2023 are played between Indonesia and Chinese Taipei and between Guam and Cambodia. Both winners qualify for the final qualification round: a group stage with 6 groups of 4 teams, starting in January next year and drawn this October. The 6 group winners and 5 best runners-up qualify for the continental showpiece, together with the 12 teams (+ Qatar) already qualified for the current final Asian World Cup qualification round.

Then there is also a regional championship played in South Asia.

And big news: prime OFC-team New Zealand will participate in a friendly 3 team tournament in Bahrain with Curacao and the host. Those will be their first official matches in almost two years.


Here is the probable October 2021 ranking, to be published on October 21st.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 157 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 162 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.


pos Oct

team

pts Oct

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Belgium

1846,94

0

14,61

2

Brazil

1832,61

0

20,88

3

England

1763,10

0

7,66

4

France

1758,64

0

4,33

5

Argentina

1751,55

1

26,24

6

Italy

1749,03

-1

13,30

7

Mexico

1684,72

2

18,53

8

Portugal

1681,73

-1

6,83

9

Spain

1675,60

-1

1,92

10

Denmark

1668,98

0

10,49

11

USA

1664,11

2

21,01

12

Netherlands

1652,01

-1

3,81

13

Germany

1642,47

1

14,67

14

Uruguay

1638,16

-2

-7,26

15

Switzerland

1633,56

0

10,83

16

Croatia

1621,34

1

13,09

17

Sweden

1618,69

1

12,66

18

Colombia

1607,30

-2

-11,10

19

Senegal

1564,95

1

9,58

20

Peru

1558,79

1

10,01

21

Iran

1557,52

1

19,44

22

Wales

1554,27

-3

-9,32

23

Chile

1545,68

0

9,15

24

Poland

1541,66

0

9,84

25

Tunisia

1537,80

0

10,93

26

Japan

1529,90

0

9,44

27

Ukraine

1527,40

0

7,33

28

Serbia

1527,34

0

11,37

29

Czech Republic

1515,73

2

20,95

30

Algeria

1509,04

0

10,42

31

Morocco

1504,81

2

11,58

32

Nigeria

1502,38

2

10,01

33

Austria

1501,09

-4

-3,73

34

Australia

1490,18

-2

-3,81

35

Russia

1484,95

2

9,52

36

Korea Republic

1476,60

0

-2,81

37

Paraguay

1473,81

-2

-10,50

38

Norway

1471,62

1

9,86

39

Hungary

1461,15

1

4,22

40

Turkey

1460,53

1

5,09

41

Romania

1451,49

1

-0,31

42

Scotland

1451,37

3

15,73

43

Egypt

1447,85

5

13,23

44

Qatar

1442,73

-1

-3,10

45

Slovakia

1441,66

-7

-20,93

46

Costa Rica

1439,77

-2

1,48

47

Greece

1434,83

-1

-0,60

48

Canada

1432,33

3

16,10

49

Republic of Ireland

1425,59

1

6,89

50

Northern Ireland

1425,30

-3

-9,76

51

Ghana

1424,87

2

13,57

52

Cote d'Ivoire

1424,12

2

13,56

53

Saudi Arabia

1420,01

3

13,67

54

Venezuela

1419,29

-5

-14,85

55

Cameroon

1418,21

3

13,75

56

Finland

1416,22

-1

9,30

57

Ecuador

1416,15

-5

1,06

58

Mali

1412,39

3

15,87

59

Iceland

1409,86

1

12,54

60

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1402,13

-3

-3,17

61

Burkina Faso

1400,56

1

6,74

62

Honduras

1380,08

1

8,47

63

Slovenia

1377,46

1

7,00

64

Jamaica

1370,24

-5

-32,15

65

Congo DR

1370,11

2

4,94

66

Bulgaria

1362,03

4

8,10

67

South Africa

1361,97

6

13,37

68

Iraq

1358,40

4

9,57

69

Albania

1349,87

-3

-18,86

70

United Arab Emirates

1349,72

-1

-8,12

71

El Salvador

1349,60

-6

-20,13

72

Montenegro

1346,19

-1

-6,64

73

North Macedonia

1343,19

1

-2,28

74

Panama

1341,93

-6

-16,84

75

China PR

1333,90

0

-0,62

76

Guinea

1329,83

0

3,74

77

Cape Verde Islands

1327,66

0

13,47

78

Oman

1315,38

0

3,56

79

Israel

1305,76

1

-4,57

80

Curacao

1304,13

-1

-6,27

81

Benin

1295,37

1

4,56

82

Syria

1286,92

-1

-9,83

83

Uganda

1285,48

3

5,63

84

Zambia

1285,24

1

5,05

85

Uzbekistan

1285,08

-1

2,81

86

Gabon

1272,33

2

5,72

87

Haiti

1268,05

0

0

88

Bahrain

1260,87

3

9,56

89

Bolivia

1260,02

-6

-23,63

90

Congo

1253,16

2

5,35

91

Jordan

1248,77

2

3,13

92

Belarus

1246,09

-2

-8,72

93

Armenia

1244,93

-4

-17,47

94

Luxembourg

1234,13

0

-10,42

95

Kyrgyzstan

1230,60

3

0

96

Lebanon

1225,37

1

-8,24

97

Vietnam

1222,92

-2

-21,17

98

Georgia

1218,88

-2

-21,99

99

Palestine

1211,32

0

0

100

Trinidad and Tobago

1207,94

1

0

101

Madagascar

1206,26

-1

-4,93

102

Cyprus

1205,42

1

2,77

103

India

1192,51

4

11,06

104

Mauritania

1189,67

0

-10,93

105

Kenya

1189,24

-3

-15,88

106

Kosovo

1186,19

3

9,91

107

Sierra Leone

1177,71

1

0

108

Namibia

1175,54

-2

-9,58

109

Guinea-Bissau

1175,03

-4

-11,58

110

Estonia

1171,53

1

-2,91

111

Korea DPR

1169,96

1

0

112

Libya

1161,71

-2

-13,23

113

Tajikistan

1157,77

5

0

114

Faroe Islands

1148,94

0

-11,45

115

Thailand

1148,63

7

0

116

Zimbabwe

1147,34

-3

-13,57

117

New Zealand

1146,89

4

-2,54

118

Azerbaijan

1146,87

-1

-11,59

119

Malawi

1146,25

-4

-13,56

120

Niger

1145,75

-1

-10,42

121

Mozambique

1144,85

-5

-13,74

122

Guatemala

1141,94

1

3,54

123

Kazakhstan

1137,70

-3

-13,48

124

Philippines

1131,93

1

0

125

Antigua and Barbuda

1131,08

1

0

126

Sudan

1127,17

1

-3,74

127

Central African Republic

1126,25

-3

-10,00

128

Rwanda

1123,74

0

-5,63

129

Turkmenistan

1117,60

1

0

130

Angola

1112,40

-1

-5,72

131

Comoros

1112,00

2

0

132

Equatorial Guinea

1111,07

-1

-5,05

133

Tanzania

1110,80

-1

-4,57

134

Togo

1085,59

2

-5,36

135

Latvia

1084,88

0

-7,57

136

Ethiopia

1079,37

-2

-13,37

137

St. Kitts and Nevis

1077,76

1

0

138

Suriname

1077,57

1

0

139

Lithuania

1073,03

-2

-9,17

140

Solomon Islands

1072,78

0

0

141

Burundi

1070,95

0

0

142

Kuwait

1065,31

0

0

143

Nicaragua

1064,32

0

0

144

Lesotho

1057,62

1

0

145

Myanmar

1057,44

1

0

146

Eswatini

1054,14

1

0

147

Hong Kong

1053,39

1

0

148

Gambia

1053,18

1

0

149

Botswana

1051,59

1

0

150

Liberia

1047,46

-6

-13,47

151

Yemen

1046,26

1

0

152

Afghanistan

1045,34

1

0

153

Andorra

1038,88

3

5,61

155

New Caledonia

1035,12

0

0

156

Malaysia

1034,87

-2

-5,94

154

Maldives

1035,77

4

7,47

157

Dominican Republic

1029,42

0

0

158

Chinese Taipei

1017,78

-7

-28,56

159

Tahiti

1014,27

0

0

160

Singapore

1000,35

0

0

161

Fiji

996,27

0

0

162

Barbados

995,94

0

0

163

Vanuatu

995,62

0

0

164

Papua New Guinea

990,55

0

0

165

Indonesia

985,61

10

28,56

166

South Sudan

982,84

-1

0

167

Bermuda

982,43

-1

0

168

Grenada

974,03

-1

0

169

Nepal

969,14

-1

-1,81

170

Belize

967,42

-1

0

171

Mauritius

964,94

-1

0

172

Puerto Rico

962,77

0

0

173

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

960,71

0

0

174

Guyana

958,87

0

0

175

Cambodia

958,50

3

8,24

176

St. Lucia

953,45

0

0

177

Malta

951,71

-6

-11,45

178

Montserrat

950,71

-1

0

179

Cuba

946,86

0

0

180

Chad

935,00

1

0

181

Moldova

933,81

-1

-6,49

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Dominica

916,72

0

0

184

Mongolia

916,68

0

0

185

Laos

912,07

1

0

186

Bhutan

910,96

1

0

187

Djibouti

905,83

-2

-6,74

188

Brunei Darussalam

903,90

2

0

189

Liechtenstein

903,76

-1

-7,18

190

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

903,31

1

0

192

American Samoa

900,27

0

0

191

Bangladesh

900,43

-2

-6,41

193

Samoa

894,26

0

0

194

Timor-Leste

879,43

0

0

195

Somalia

873,71

0

0

196

Cayman Islands

873,64

0

0

197

Pakistan

866,81

1

0

198

Gibraltar

863,17

-1

-4,53

199

Seychelles

862,84

0

0

200

Tonga

861,81

0

0

201

Aruba

859,22

0

-0,75

202

Bahamas

858,50

0

0

203

Eritrea

855,56

1

0

204

Guam

850,25

-1

-8,24

205

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,84

1

0

206

Sri Lanka

835,18

-1

-11,36

207

US Virgin Islands

816,13

0

0

208

British Virgin Islands

812,94

0

0

209

Anguilla

792,34

0

0

210

San Marino

782,71

0

-8,46


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

9 comments:

  1. After Egypt double win against Libya and Nigeria loss against CAR , what’s Nigeria October ranking will be?

    ReplyDelete
  2. That was indeed a hard blow for Nigeria's ranking, the unexpected loss to CAR cost them 25 points.
    In the October ranking Nigeria will have 1478 points (currently spot 36) and Egypt will have 1449 points (currently spot 42).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are there a possibility for Egypt to overcome these 29 points in the next international Fifa date ?

      Delete
  3. there is any chance for egypt to get 5th african ranking before draw with nigeria qualifying

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ed
    If it was possible to classify Egypt and Nigeria in the month of December, if the play-off draw was held in December (Egypt will participate in the Arab Cup - Qatar)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hello ,

    New Tunisia , Morocco and Algeria ranking pls .

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Ed, may you please tell us the points that Egypt and Nigeria will have after the next two games?
    Angola Vs Egypt (W/tie/Lose) (?/?/?)
    Egypt Vs Gabon (W/tie/Lose) (?/?/?)
    Liberia Vs Nigeria (W/tie/Lose) (?/?/?)
    Nigeria Vs Cape Verde (W/tie/Lose) (?/?/?)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hey guys, I understand you are curious but please be patient. I will publish about new simulations and the final preview of the October ranking in the weekend.
    The preview of the November ranking follows shortly after that.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The sensible thing to do with the (remainder of the) Brazil v Argentina match is simply not to play it, assuming both teams will qualify. There is already one outstanding match with no place for it in the official calendar (the AFC fourth round playoff, to be played as a single game in a neutral location in May/June), so in the hugely unlikely event that Brazil v Argentina affects the eventual outcome of the CONMEBOL qualifiers, I'm sure they'll find a way to jam it in around the same time...

    ReplyDelete