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Saturday, October 16, 2021

FIFA ranking: October 2021 final preview

FIFA will publish the October ranking this Thursday October 21st. This final preview contains 161 matches, out of 165 matches played since September 13th. 


Only today's final of the South Asian Championship between India and Nepal to be played yet for this ranking.


Resulting points and positions for both teams will be:

India

Nepal

pts

pos

pts

pos

win India

1182,73

106

971,42

169

PSO win India

1181,48

106

973,92

169

PSO win Nepal

1180,23

106

975,17

168

win Nepal

1177,73

106

976,42

168


Elo predicts a straight win for India.


Two teams drop to a new low:

Moldova (181 - 177 in November 2020)

Guam (206 - 205 in November 2004)


Best movers:

10 - New Zealand, Indonesia
9 - Central African Republic


Worst movers:

-11 - Northern Ireland
-7 - Chinese Taipei
-6 - Mozambique, Liberia


Best movers in the top 50:

7 - Saudi Arabia
4 - Morocco, Russia, Egypt


Worst movers in the top 50:

-3 - Uruguay, Peru, Austria, Paraguay, Hungary, Qatar

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

pos Oct

team

pts Oct

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Belgium

1832,33

0

0

2

Brazil

1820,36

0

8,63

3

France

1779,24

1

24,93

4

Italy

1750,52

1

14,79

5

England

1750,16

-2

-5,28

6

Argentina

1738,79

0

13,48

7

Spain

1687,66

1

13,98

8

Portugal

1681,73

-1

6,83

9

Mexico

1672,86

0

6,67

10

Denmark

1668,98

0

10,49

11

Netherlands

1652,01

0

3,81

12

Germany

1642,47

2

14,67

13

USA

1639,42

0

-3,68

14

Switzerland

1633,80

1

11,07

15

Uruguay

1625,67

-3

-19,75

16

Colombia

1618,76

0

0,36

17

Sweden

1618,69

1

12,66

18

Croatia

1608,84

-1

0,59

19

Wales

1566,77

0

3,18

20

Senegal

1564,95

0

9,58

21

Chile

1546,26

2

9,73

22

Iran

1545,02

0

6,94

23

Poland

1542,20

1

10,38

24

Peru

1534,06

-3

-14,72

25

Serbia

1527,34

3

11,37

26

Ukraine

1527,12

1

7,05

27

Tunisia

1525,30

-2

-1,57

28

Japan

1517,69

-2

-2,77

29

Morocco

1513,00

4

19,77

30

Algeria

1509,04

0

10,42

31

Czech Republic

1503,23

0

8,45

32

Austria

1501,09

-3

-3,73

33

Russia

1497,45

4

22,02

34

Australia

1489,88

-2

-4,11

35

Korea Republic

1489,10

1

9,69

36

Nigeria

1478,18

-2

-14,19

37

Norway

1471,62

2

9,86

38

Paraguay

1461,28

-3

-23,03

39

Turkey

1460,53

2

5,09

40

Slovakia

1454,16

-2

-8,43

41

Romania

1451,76

1

-0,04

42

Scotland

1451,37

3

15,73

43

Hungary

1449,08

-3

-7,85

44

Egypt

1448,78

4

14,16

45

Costa Rica

1439,53

-1

1,24

46

Qatar

1437,73

-3

-8,10

47

Greece

1434,83

-1

-0,60

48

Canada

1432,34

3

16,11

49

Saudi Arabia

1432,21

7

25,87

50

Venezuela

1431,51

-1

-2,63

51

Republic of Ireland

1430,59

-1

11,89

52

Ghana

1424,87

1

13,57

53

Cote d'Ivoire

1424,12

1

13,56

54

Cameroon

1418,21

4

13,75

55

Ecuador

1416,93

-3

1,84

56

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1414,92

1

9,62

57

Mali

1412,39

4

15,87

58

Northern Ireland

1412,21

-11

-22,85

59

Jamaica

1407,72

0

5,33

60

Finland

1403,96

-5

-2,96

61

Burkina Faso

1400,56

1

6,74

62

Iceland

1397,49

-2

0,17

63

Albania

1374,33

3

5,60

64

Slovenia

1364,96

0

-5,50

65

South Africa

1361,97

8

13,37

66

El Salvador

1361,38

-1

-8,35

67

Congo DR

1357,61

0

-7,56

68

Honduras

1355,17

-5

-16,44

69

Panama

1354,34

-1

-4,43

70

Bulgaria

1350,11

0

-3,82

71

United Arab Emirates

1349,42

-2

-8,42

72

Iraq

1346,20

0

-2,63

73

Montenegro

1346,19

-2

-6,64

74

North Macedonia

1343,19

0

-2,28

75

China PR

1334,20

0

-0,32

76

Cape Verde Islands

1327,62

1

13,43

77

Oman

1315,38

1

3,56

78

Bolivia

1309,75

5

26,10

79

Guinea

1309,15

-3

-16,94

80

Israel

1305,76

0

-4,57

81

Curacao

1299,13

-2

-11,27

82

Uganda

1297,43

4

17,58

83

Benin

1282,34

-1

-8,47

84

Uzbekistan

1279,73

0

-2,54

85

Syria

1274,72

-4

-22,03

86

Haiti

1268,05

1

0

87

Zambia

1260,79

-2

-19,40

88

Gabon

1260,39

0

-6,22

89

Armenia

1257,17

0

-5,23

90

Jordan

1254,12

3

8,48

91

Bahrain

1250,92

0

-0,39

92

Lebanon

1250,08

5

16,47

93

Georgia

1243,88

3

3,01

94

Luxembourg

1234,13

0

-10,42

95

Belarus

1233,59

-5

-21,22

96

Kyrgyzstan

1230,60

2

0

97

Congo

1228,16

-5

-19,65

98

Vietnam

1222,92

-3

-21,17

99

Madagascar

1218,76

1

7,57

100

Palestine

1211,32

-1

0

101

Trinidad and Tobago

1207,94

0

0

102

Mauritania

1202,17

2

1,57

103

Cyprus

1192,92

0

-9,73

104

Kenya

1189,24

-2

-15,88

105

Estonia

1184,03

6

9,59

106

India

1182,73

1

1,28

107

Sierra Leone

1177,71

1

0

108

Namibia

1175,54

-2

-9,58

109

Guinea-Bissau

1175,03

-4

-11,58

110

Korea DPR

1169,96

2

0

111

New Zealand

1161,84

10

12,41

112

Libya

1161,74

-2

-13,20

113

Kosovo

1161,19

-4

-15,09

114

Tajikistan

1157,77

4

0

115

Central African Republic

1150,45

9

14,20

116

Faroe Islands

1148,94

-2

-11,45

117

Thailand

1148,63

5

0

118

Zimbabwe

1147,34

-5

-13,57

119

Azerbaijan

1146,87

-2

-11,59

120

Malawi

1146,25

-5

-13,56

121

Niger

1145,75

-2

-10,42

122

Mozambique

1144,85

-6

-13,74

123

Guatemala

1141,94

0

3,54

124

Sudan

1139,67

3

8,76

125

Kazakhstan

1137,46

-5

-13,72

126

Equatorial Guinea

1135,52

5

19,40

127

Philippines

1131,93

-2

0

128

Antigua and Barbuda

1131,08

-2

0

129

Angola

1124,33

0

6,21

130

Tanzania

1123,84

2

8,47

131

Turkmenistan

1117,60

-1

0

132

Comoros

1112,00

1

0

133

Rwanda

1111,79

-5

-17,58

134

Togo

1110,59

2

19,64

135

Lithuania

1097,80

2

15,60

136

Latvia

1084,88

-1

-7,57

137

Ethiopia

1079,37

-3

-13,37

138

St. Kitts and Nevis

1077,76

0

0

139

Suriname

1077,57

0

0

140

Solomon Islands

1072,78

0

0

141

Burundi

1070,95

0

0

142

Kuwait

1065,31

0

0

143

Nicaragua

1064,32

0

0

144

Lesotho

1057,62

1

0

145

Myanmar

1057,44

1

0

146

Eswatini

1054,14

1

0

147

Hong Kong

1053,39

1

0

148

Gambia

1053,18

1

0

149

Botswana

1051,59

1

0

150

Liberia

1046,53

-6

-14,40

151

Yemen

1046,26

1

0

152

Afghanistan

1045,34

1

0

153

Andorra

1038,88

3

5,61

154

New Caledonia

1035,12

1

0

155

Malaysia

1034,87

-1

-5,94

156

Maldives

1030,92

2

2,62

157

Dominican Republic

1029,42

0

0

158

Chinese Taipei

1017,78

-7

-28,56

159

Tahiti

1014,27

0

0

160

Singapore

1000,35

0

0

161

Fiji

996,27

0

0

162

Barbados

995,94

0

0

163

Vanuatu

995,62

0

0

164

Papua New Guinea

990,55

0

0

165

Indonesia

985,61

10

28,56

166

South Sudan

982,84

-1

0

167

Bermuda

982,43

-1

0

168

Grenada

974,03

-1

0

169

Nepal

971,42

-1

0,47

170

Cambodia

970,42

8

20,16

171

Belize

967,42

-2

0

172

Mauritius

964,94

-2

0

173

Malta

964,21

-2

1,05

174

Puerto Rico

962,77

-2

0

175

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

960,71

-2

0

176

Guyana

958,87

-2

0

177

St. Lucia

953,45

-1

0

178

Montserrat

950,71

-1

0

179

Cuba

946,86

0

0

180

Chad

935,00

1

0

181

Moldova

933,81

-1

-6,49

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Dominica

916,72

0

0

184

Mongolia

916,68

0

0

185

Laos

912,07

1

0

186

Bhutan

910,96

1

0

187

Bangladesh

907,84

2

1,00

188

Djibouti

905,83

-3

-6,74

189

Brunei Darussalam

903,90

1

0

190

Liechtenstein

903,63

-2

-7,31

191

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

903,31

0

0

192

American Samoa

900,27

0

0

193

Samoa

894,26

0

0

194

Timor-Leste

879,43

0

0

195

Somalia

873,71

0

0

196

Cayman Islands

873,64

0

0

197

Pakistan

866,81

1

0

198

Gibraltar

863,17

-1

-4,53

199

Seychelles

862,84

0

0

200

Tonga

861,81

0

0

201

Aruba

859,22

0

-0,75

202

Bahamas

858,50

0

0

203

Eritrea

855,56

1

0

204

Sri Lanka

840,11

1

-6,43

205

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,84

1

0

206

Guam

838,33

-3

-20,16

207

US Virgin Islands

816,13

0

0

208

British Virgin Islands

812,94

0

0

209

Anguilla

792,34

0

0

210

San Marino

782,71

0

-8,46



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

13 comments:

  1. FIFA excluded 4 matches that I included:
    2021-09-24 El Salvador - Guatemala 0-2, friendly
    2021-09-26 Nepal - Oman 2-7, friendly
    2021-09-30 Egypt - Liberia 2-0 friendly
    2021-10-01 Curacao - Aruba 7-1, friendly (ABCS Tournament)

    FIFA included 3 matches that I excluded:
    2021-10-06 Sierra Leone - South Sudan 1-1, friendly (4 nations tournament in Morocco)
    2021-10-09 Sierra Leone - Gambia 2-1, friendly (4 nations tournament in Morocco)
    2021-10-12 Gambia - South Sudan 2-1, friendly (4 nations tournament in Morocco)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ed, yes, at least the Egypt match makes sense as they used 10 substitutes in that match.

      But I have another issue. You've mentioned in the past that you have the exact same numbers as FIFA, but I think you're being a bit liberal with the truth there. For Antigua and Barbuda and Zambia there are differences that I can't explain. When I rebase my numbers to yours I get the following differences (Antigua and Barbuda already for the previous ranking, but since they didn't play this time for simplicity I look at the latest ranking):

      Antigua and Barbuda:

      My own program and your spreadsheet come up with
      1260.793 (rounded to three digits), but FIFA mention 1260.8 their website. This isn't exactly the same. Logically we should both have 1260.79 and not 1260.8(0).

      Zambia:

      My own program and your spreadsheet come up with 1131.075 (rounded to three digits), but FIFA mention 1131.07. Logically therefore we should both have 1131.08 and not 1131.07 like FIFA does.

      So I think you should mention such discrepancies.

      Delete
    2. Morocco reserve team also played in that touranement, won 3 games, were their games included in the fifa ranking

      Delete
    3. No, Morocco's matches in that friendly tournament were not included.

      Delete
    4. Hi Ed,- has FIFA explained why the matches other than EGY-LIB were excluded? - some registration failure, or what....?

      Delete
    5. I don't actively search for the reasons why a match is excluded. It could be more than 6 substitutes, use of a non-FIFA approved ref, an agreement between the teams in the match, anything really.
      One thing is clear though: FIFA never explains her acts :)

      Delete
    6. Hi Ed , where do you find the list of included and excluded games ? ( if this is a thing you wanna keep to yourself, I understand completely )

      Delete
    7. There is no such list from FIFA. See here for my sources.

      Delete
  2. To be exact: I have ATG at 1131,07503 and ZAM at 1260,7927. FIFA has ATG at 1131.07 and ZAM at 1260.80.

    With regard to ATG: this discrepancy of 0.01 point I've seen since the August 2021 ranking. If you round their points tally normally to two decimals you would get 1131.08. I've earlier found that FIFA sometimes rounds not normally when it's about rounding x.50 to integers or rounding x.xx50 to two decimals. In all the years that I calculate the ranking points myself (since 2007) I've found them rounding those specific cases sometimes upwards and sometimes downwards. There doesn't seem to be a strict rounding rule they are applying in this case. So this discrepancy is for me totally explainable and that's why I don't mention it.

    With regard to ZAM: this October ranking is the first time that I see a 0.01 point difference for Zambia. For them two manual corrections were made earlier: one in February 2020 about the then excluded match CIV-ZAM of 19 Jun 2019 and one in December 2020 about the then excluded match ETH-ZAM of 22 Oct 2020. You can find those manual corrections mentioned in my sheet.
    Because at the time of the determination of the magnitude of the manual corrections the FIFA ranking was still given in integer numbers, these manual corrections implicitly carry a small degree of uncertainty with them. It is for me therefore plausible that the manual correction term should be slightly adapted, so that the points tally of Zambia on two decimals is correct again. For me this discrepancy is explainable and I will make the slight adjustment in the manual corrections for Zambia soon.

    So to conclude: I see both discrepancies of 0.01 point, I think they are both explainable and that one of the two can and shall be mended. Is this enough mentioning for your taste :) ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Such a long reply without any new facts. I think you could just have kept it short and said that indeed the numbers were not exact and that for the previous two rankings there were two teams where the ranking poiints were in fact *not* exact.

      Delete
  3. I wrote an elaborate reply in order for you to try to understand. It's a pity you don't.
    You don't even read my reply thoroughly: 'that for the previous two rankings there were two teams where the ranking poiints were in fact *not* exact.' That is completely *not* what I said.
    From now on I will reply to you with one-liners 'for better communication'.

    ReplyDelete
  4. This 0.01 for Zambia is very strange. I think that the problem started when FIFA tried to revert October 2020 ZAM/ETH/SDN matches in November (but there were no decimal points in official ranking). In next published rankings it was ok.
    I was trying to recalculate 2020/2021 rankings but I didn't find solution.
    I'm still curious about this November 2020 reverting.. and why only one ETH/ZAM match was excluded.
    I make calculations in database with many decimal digits and
    this difference that it is between [+0,0023 , +0,0123] keeps my eyes awake and it's only seen for ZAM.
    This small difference could be the connected with draw BEN/ZAM match 2021-06-08. Maybe some ZAM matches or ZAM's rivals' matches were disordered (as two matches of one team as I remember).
    No more ideas...

    ReplyDelete