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Saturday, October 16, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (October 2021)

The October window is completed. Time to update the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

Denmark and Germany are already qualified. Several teams underlined their ambitions. Some others made mistakes that could be costly. Below you can see all the consequences in terms of chances to qualify.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).


See here for an explanation and schedule of the qualification process and the simulation results after the September window.


UEFA


First the group stage of the qualification for the World Cup. The teams are ordered by their average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Portugal

88,10

11,90

0,00

0,00

0,00

Serbia

11,90

88,10

0,00

0,00

0,00

Luxembourg

0,00

0,00

52,54

47,46

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

47,46

52,54

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Spain

54,10

40,55

5,35

0,00

0,00

Sweden

45,90

53,68

0,42

0,00

0,00

Greece

0,00

5,77

94,23

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

78,87

21,13

Kosovo

0,00

0,00

0,00

21,13

78,87

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Italy

76,67

23,33

0,00

0,00

0,00

Switzerland

23,33

76,67

0,00

0,00

0,00

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

73,20

20,81

5,99

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

26,80

73,20

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

5,99

94,01

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

France

99,87

0,13

0,00

0,00

0,00

Ukraine

0,01

40,83

42,38

16,78

0,00

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,04

38,97

29,49

31,50

0,00

Finland

0,08

20,07

28,13

51,72

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Belgium

99,82

0,18

0,00

0,00

0,00

Wales

0,18

53,33

46,49

0,00

0,00

Czech Republic

0,00

46,49

53,51

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

91,28

8,72

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

8,72

91,28

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Denmark

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Scotland

0,00

95,41

4,59

0,00

0,00

0,00

Israel

0,00

4,59

73,76

21,65

0,00

0,00

Austria

0,00

0,00

21,65

78,35

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

95,00

5,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

5,00

95,00

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Netherlands

87,20

10,52

2,28

0,00

0,00

0,00

Norway

12,24

53,14

34,62

0,00

0,00

0,00

Turkey

0,56

36,34

63,06

0,04

0,00

0,00

Montenegro

0,00

0,00

0,04

99,80

0,16

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,16

99,75

0,09

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,09

99,91

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Croatia

52,93

47,07

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Russia

47,07

52,93

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Slovakia

0,00

0,00

68,01

31,82

0,17

0,00

Slovenia

0,00

0,00

31,99

67,91

0,10

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,19

76,56

23,25

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,08

23,17

76,75

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

England

99,48

0,52

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Poland

0,52

98,53

0,93

0,02

0,00

0,00

Albania

0,00

0,93

98,17

0,90

0,00

0,00

Hungary

0,00

0,02

0,90

99,08

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Germany

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Romania

0,00

83,35

14,81

1,82

0,02

0,00

North Macedonia

0,00

11,45

51,18

34,79

2,58

0,00

Armenia

0,00

5,11

33,13

59,36

2,40

0,00

Iceland

0,00

0,09

0,88

4,03

95,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00



Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team

PO

nr2

via UNL

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

Wales

99,82

53,33

46,49

39,85

59,97

39,92

Poland

98,53

98,53

0,00

87,89

10,64

89,20

Austria

97,61

0,00

97,61

0,00

97,61

0,00

Czech Republic

97,04

46,49

50,55

17,62

79,42

18,16

Scotland

95,41

95,41

0,00

39,26

56,15

41,15

Serbia

88,10

88,10

0,00

88,10

0,00

100,00

Romania

83,35

83,35

0,00

0,02

83,33

0,02

Switzerland

76,67

76,67

0,00

75,42

1,25

98,37

Sweden

53,68

53,68

0,00

52,72

0,96

98,21

Norway

53,14

53,14

0,00

13,97

39,17

26,29

Russia

52,93

52,93

0,00

48,40

4,53

91,44

Croatia

47,07

47,07

0,00

29,70

17,37

63,10

Spain

45,90

40,55

5,35

38,00

7,90

82,79

Ukraine

40,83

40,83

0,00

0,00

40,83

0,00

Bosnia-Herzegovina

38,97

38,97

0,00

0,02

38,95

0,05

Turkey

36,34

36,34

0,00

20,31

16,03

55,89

Italy

23,33

23,33

0,00

22,76

0,57

97,56

Finland

20,07

20,07

0,00

0,08

19,99

0,40

Portugal

11,90

11,90

0,00

11,90

0,00

100,00

North Macedonia

11,45

11,45

0,00

0,00

11,45

0,00

Netherlands

10,52

10,52

0,00

8,05

2,47

76,52

Greece

5,77

5,77

0,00

4,99

0,78

86,48

Armenia

5,11

5,11

0,00

0,02

5,09

0,39

Israel

4,59

4,59

0,00

0,00

4,59

0,00

Albania

0,93

0,93

0,00

0,22

0,71

23,66

England

0,52

0,52

0,00

0,52

0,00

100,00

Belgium

0,18

0,18

0,00

0,18

0,00

100,00

France

0,13

0,13

0,00

0,00

0,13

0,00

Iceland

0,09

0,09

0,00

0,00

0,09

0,00

Hungary

0,02

0,02

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,00

Slovakia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Slovenia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Germany

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Luxembourg

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Montenegro

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kosovo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Denmark

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

Poland

72,67

[73,75]

13,75

Serbia

70,34

[79,84]

26,12

Switzerland

67,05

[87,45]

13,11

Wales

47,21

[47,30]

4,72

Sweden

45,17

[84,15]

10,91

Spain

40,08

[87,32]

12,71

Russia

37,54

[70,92]

-3,44

Czech Republic

35,62

[36,71]

-5,07

Scotland

31,15

[32,65]

2,94

Croatia

28,60

[60,76]

14,29

Italy

21,79

[93,40]

8,38

Norway

17,96

[33,80]

-9,49

Turkey

17,15

[47,19]

-9,40

Austria

14,33

[14,68]

-5,76

Portugal

10,80

[90,76]

3,32

Romania

9,99

[11,99]

-15,49

Ukraine

9,81

[24,03]

-7,63

Netherlands

7,96

[75,67]

-3,35

Bosnia-Herzegovina

5,21

[13,37]

1,48

Finland

3,44

[17,14]

-5,60

Greece

3,38

[58,58]

0,20

North Macedonia

0,90

[7,86]

-4,40

Israel

0,51

[11,11]

-17,07

England

0,44

[84,62]

0,28

Armenia

0,38

[7,44]

-6,48

Albania

0,23

[24,73]

-3,26

Belgium

0,18

[100,00]

0,11

France

0,09

[69,23]

-1,77

Iceland

0,02

[22,22]

-0,13

Hungary

0,00

[0,00]

-6,04

Slovakia

0,00

[0,00]

-4,15

Slovenia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,68

Germany

0,00

[0,00]

-1,28

Northern Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,40

Luxembourg

0,00

[0,00]

-0,15

Montenegro

0,00

[0,00]

-0,14

Denmark

0,00

[0,00]

-0,05

Bulgaria

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Kosovo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,03

Belarus

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Kazakhstan

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Republic of Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Cyprus

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Georgia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

Switzerland

41,16

[61,39]

5,85

Poland

31,07

[42,75]

2,96

Spain

30,72

[76,65]

10,63

Serbia

30,72

[43,67]

9,21

Sweden

24,62

[54,51]

4,20

Wales

24,31

[51,49]

0,53

Czech Republic

17,87

[50,17]

-4,68

Italy

17,07

[78,34]

6,50

Russia

15,21

[40,52]

-1,32

Croatia

13,73

[48,01]

6,30

Scotland

9,73

[31,24]

-0,09

Portugal

7,64

[70,74]

2,00

Norway

7,18

[39,98]

-4,93

Turkey

6,21

[36,21]

-4,57

Austria

4,95

[34,54]

-2,80

Ukraine

4,89

[49,85]

-4,22

Netherlands

4,60

[57,79]

-2,35

Romania

3,06

[30,63]

-5,12

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,84

[35,32]

0,58

Finland

1,33

[38,66]

-2,59

Greece

1,14

[33,73]

-0,24

England

0,29

[65,91]

0,22

Israel

0,15

[29,41]

-5,56

Belgium

0,15

[83,33]

0,10

North Macedonia

0,14

[15,56]

-1,08

Armenia

0,10

[26,32]

-1,63

France

0,07

[77,78]

-1,37

Albania

0,04

[17,39]

-1,00

Iceland

0,01

[50,00]

-0,04

Hungary

0,00

[0,00]

-2,45

Slovakia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,51

Germany

0,00

[0,00]

-0,73

Slovenia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,51

Northern Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,17

Denmark

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Luxembourg

0,00

[0,00]

-0,03

Montenegro

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02

Kosovo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02

Bulgaria

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Republic of Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Belarus

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Georgia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Cyprus

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

team

nr1

PO

Qtot

diff

Denmark

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,01

Germany

100,00

0,00

100,00

1,09

Belgium

99,82

0,15

99,97

-0,01

France

99,87

0,07

99,94

0,88

England

99,48

0,29

99,77

-0,10

Portugal

88,10

7,64

95,74

-0,76

Italy

76,67

17,07

93,74

0,12

Netherlands

87,20

4,60

91,80

0,84

Spain

54,10

30,72

84,82

2,67

Sweden

45,90

24,62

70,52

13,80

Croatia

52,93

13,73

66,66

-20,01

Switzerland

23,33

41,16

64,49

12,33

Russia

47,07

15,21

62,28

25,71

Serbia

11,90

30,72

42,62

11,98

Poland

0,52

31,07

31,59

3,30

Wales

0,18

24,31

24,49

0,64

Norway

12,24

7,18

19,42

-3,10

Czech Republic

0,00

17,87

17,87

-4,68

Scotland

0,00

9,73

9,73

-0,13

Turkey

0,56

6,21

6,77

-9,55

Austria

0,00

4,95

4,95

-2,80

Ukraine

0,01

4,89

4,90

-4,25

Romania

0,00

3,06

3,06

-6,39

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,04

1,84

1,88

0,53

Finland

0,08

1,33

1,41

-4,76

Greece

0,00

1,14

1,14

-1,88

Israel

0,00

0,15

0,15

-5,57

North Macedonia

0,00

0,14

0,14

-1,19

Armenia

0,00

0,10

0,10

-2,07

Albania

0,00

0,04

0,04

-1,01

Iceland

0,00

0,01

0,01

-0,04

Hungary

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,46

Slovakia

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,19

Slovenia

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,55

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,27

Montenegro

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,06

Luxembourg

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,04

Kosovo

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,02

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



There's in March also a play-out involving the four group numbers 4 in league C of the UEFA Nations League 2020 to decide which two teams remain in league C and which two teams relegate to league D for the next version of the UNL These play-outs are played as two home-and-away play-offs:

To win the play-out:

Estonia

77,81

Kazakhstan

58,88

Moldova

41,12

Cyprus

22,19



CAF

First the qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Algeria

90,29

9,71

0,00

0,00

Burkina Faso

9,71

90,29

0,00

0,00

Niger

0,00

0,00

99,58

0,42

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,42

99,58

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Tunisia

97,37

2,60

0,03

0,00

Equatorial Guinea

2,62

80,39

16,79

0,20

Zambia

0,01

13,06

62,87

24,06

Mauritania

0,00

3,95

20,31

75,74

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Nigeria

88,26

11,18

0,56

0,00

Cape Verde Islands

11,72

76,30

10,92

1,06

Liberia

0,00

3,87

56,14

39,99

Central African Republic

0,02

8,65

32,38

58,95

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Cote d'Ivoire

69,52

30,48

0,00

0,00

Cameroon

30,48

69,34

0,18

0,00

Malawi

0,00

0,18

62,74

37,08

Mozambique

0,00

0,00

37,08

62,92

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Mali

84,72

15,28

0,00

0,00

Uganda

15,28

82,16

2,56

0,00

Kenya

0,00

2,56

71,63

25,81

Rwanda

0,00

0,00

25,81

74,19

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Egypt

98,41

1,59

0,00

0,00

Libya

0,71

62,87

18,23

18,19

Gabon

0,88

26,02

55,66

17,44

Angola

0,00

9,52

26,11

64,37

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

South Africa

53,51

46,49

0,00

0,00

Ghana

46,49

53,05

0,46

0,00

Ethiopia

0,00

0,46

62,33

37,21

Zimbabwe

0,00

0,00

37,21

62,79

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Senegal

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Namibia

0,00

70,20

14,63

15,17

Togo

0,00

24,30

50,80

24,90

Congo

0,00

5,50

34,57

59,93

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Morocco

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

61,63

23,05

15,32

Guinea

0,00

27,85

53,90

18,25

Sudan

0,00

10,52

23,05

66,43

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Benin

43,08

36,90

14,90

5,12

Tanzania

31,55

34,26

29,82

4,37

Congo DR

24,72

22,43

42,84

10,01

Madagascar

0,65

6,41

12,44

80,50



Then the qualification for the play-off round. The top 5 play-off participants are seeded (based on the November 2021 ranking), the other 5 are unseeded. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2).

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Senegal

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

4,75

Morocco

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

18,05

Egypt

18,77

79,64

19,07

98,41

30,06

Tunisia

97,37

0,00

100,00

97,37

4,79

Algeria

90,29

0,00

100,00

90,29

6,62

Nigeria

87,88

0,38

99,57

88,26

-7,13

Mali

0,15

84,57

0,18

84,72

14,18

Cote d'Ivoire

2,76

66,76

3,97

69,52

3,45

South Africa

0,00

53,51

0,00

53,51

8,70

Ghana

2,04

44,45

4,39

46,49

0,81

Benin

0,00

43,08

0,00

43,08

-7,52

Tanzania

0,00

31,55

0,00

31,55

10,48

Cameroon

0,61

29,87

2,00

30,48

0,46

Congo DR

0,00

24,72

0,00

24,72

-1,34

Uganda

0,00

15,28

0,00

15,28

-1,59

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

11,72

0,00

11,72

10,20

Burkina Faso

0,13

9,58

1,34

9,71

-6,45

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

2,62

0,00

2,62

0,59

Gabon

0,00

0,88

0,00

0,88

-3,37

Libya

0,00

0,71

0,00

0,71

-25,60

Madagascar

0,00

0,65

0,00

0,65

-1,62

Central African Republic

0,00

0,02

0,00

0,02

-0,07

Zambia

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,01

-4,96

Kenya

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,62

Guinea

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,40

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-8,23

Ethiopia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-7,48

Namibia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-4,03

Malawi

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,09

Liberia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,00

Rwanda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,97

Zimbabwe

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,03

Angola

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,09

Mozambique

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,82

Congo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,62

Sudan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Mauritania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Niger

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,17

Togo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,10

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


Hosam notifies that the draw for the third round will be on December 18th. That could imply that the December ranking (published December 16th) could be used to seed this draw. In December the Arab Cup will be played and several North African teams participate. This might lead to other seeding rankings, although this tournament is expected to be a friendly tournament for ranking calculation purposes, so match points exchanged in the matches in this tournament will be quite low.

I've made a second set of simulations to determine the effect of using the December ranking as seeding ranking for the third round draw:

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Senegal

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

4,75

Morocco

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

18,05

Egypt

19,83

78,58

20,15

98,41

30,06

Tunisia

97,37

0,00

100,00

97,37

4,79

Algeria

90,29

0,00

100,00

90,29

6,62

Nigeria

86,78

1,48

98,32

88,26

-7,13

Mali

0,14

84,58

0,17

84,72

14,18

Cote d'Ivoire

2,57

66,95

3,70

69,52

3,45

South Africa

0,00

53,51

0,00

53,51

8,70

Ghana

1,76

44,73

3,79

46,49

0,81

Benin

0,00

43,08

0,00

43,08

-7,52

Tanzania

0,00

31,55

0,00

31,55

10,48

Cameroon

1,11

29,37

3,64

30,48

0,46

Congo DR

0,00

24,72

0,00

24,72

-1,34

Uganda

0,00

15,28

0,00

15,28

-1,59

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

11,72

0,00

11,72

10,20

Burkina Faso

0,15

9,56

1,54

9,71

-6,45

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

2,62

0,00

2,62

0,59

Gabon

0,00

0,88

0,00

0,88

-3,37

Libya

0,00

0,71

0,00

0,71

-25,60

Madagascar

0,00

0,65

0,00

0,65

-1,62

Central African Republic

0,00

0,02

0,00

0,02

-0,07

Zambia

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,01

-4,96

Kenya

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,62

Guinea

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,40

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-8,23

Ethiopia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-7,48

Namibia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-4,03

Malawi

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,09

Liberia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,00

Rwanda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,97

Zimbabwe

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,03

Angola

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,09

Mozambique

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,82

Congo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,62

Sudan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Mauritania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Niger

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,17

Togo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,10

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


You can see that f.i. Egypt has in that case a probability of 20% to be seeded in the draw, in comparison with 19% when using the November ranking. As expected the effect on the seeding is only marginal.


I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings. Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team

qualify

diff Q

Senegal

67,50

[67,50]

1,68

Morocco

66,97

[66,97]

11,69

Algeria

65,57

[72,62]

1,93

Tunisia

60,73

[62,37]

0,33

Nigeria

52,67

[59,68]

-9,71

Egypt

42,48

[43,17]

10,89

Cote d'Ivoire

32,79

[47,17]

0,46

Mali

30,80

[36,36]

6,43

Ghana

18,85

[40,55]

-0,91

South Africa

17,97

[33,58]

3,13

Cameroon

12,06

[39,57]

-0,90

Benin

9,41

[21,84]

-3,37

Congo DR

6,04

[24,43]

-1,41

Tanzania

4,78

[15,15]

1,36

Uganda

3,93

[25,72]

-0,70

Burkina Faso

3,62

[37,28]

-3,32

Cape Verde Islands

2,76

[23,55]

2,38

Equatorial Guinea

0,60

[22,90]

0,16

Gabon

0,23

[26,14]

-0,91

Madagascar

0,12

[18,46]

-0,34

Libya

0,11

[15,49]

-5,06

Central African Republic

0,01

[50,00]

-0,01

Guinea

0,00

[0,00]

-2,72

Kenya

0,00

[0,00]

-2,31

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

[0,00]

-1,92

Ethiopia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,45

Zambia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,39

Namibia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,06

Liberia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,66

Rwanda

0,00

[0,00]

-0,56

Malawi

0,00

[0,00]

-0,44

Zimbabwe

0,00

[0,00]

-0,41

Angola

0,00

[0,00]

-0,29

Congo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,18

Mauritania

0,00

[0,00]

-0,13

Sudan

0,00

[0,00]

-0,11

Mozambique

0,00

[0,00]

-0,11

Niger

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Togo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02

Djibouti

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



CONMEBOL

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points,  compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD9):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Brazil

100,00

0,02

0,00

-0,01

Argentina

99,89

1,30

0,11

-0,95

Uruguay

70,58

-7,54

16,73

4,10

Colombia

66,84

5,33

21,64

0,97

Ecuador

40,84

9,38

29,75

4,78

Chile

10,45

5,93

14,54

5,90

Peru

7,64

-2,45

10,28

-3,06

Paraguay

2,62

-12,54

4,84

-12,23

Bolivia

1,06

0,90

1,90

1,27

Venezuela

0,08

-0,33

0,21

-0,77



CONCACAF

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

Mexico

70,41

21,16

7,44

0,84

0,14

0,01

0,00

0,00

USA

20,13

42,80

28,51

6,61

1,53

0,32

0,09

0,01

Canada

9,14

30,84

39,72

13,33

4,57

1,81

0,51

0,08

Panama

0,20

2,75

12,18

35,49

24,53

14,87

7,34

2,64

Costa Rica

0,09

1,39

6,43

18,85

27,35

25,22

13,99

6,68

Jamaica

0,03

0,88

4,24

16,16

23,81

26,19

18,62

10,07

El Salvador

0,00

0,17

1,00

5,09

10,68

18,07

30,95

34,04

Honduras

0,00

0,01

0,48

3,63

7,39

13,51

28,50

46,48



The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 4. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD3):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Mexico

99,01

2,05

0,84

-1,36

USA

91,44

-0,50

6,61

1,09

Canada

79,70

16,70

13,33

-5,55

Panama

15,13

-5,44

35,49

9,96

Costa Rica

7,91

-2,53

18,85

3,27

Jamaica

5,15

1,20

16,16

9,46

El Salvador

1,17

-2,77

5,09

-3,96

Honduras

0,49

-8,71

3,63

-12,91



AFC

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Iran

78,55

20,72

0,64

0,08

0,01

0,00

Korea Republic

20,95

71,03

6,40

1,28

0,32

0,02

Iraq

0,13

4,06

42,81

30,36

15,22

7,42

Lebanon

0,36

3,08

34,44

34,45

20,34

7,33

United Arab Emirates

0,01

0,90

10,47

22,66

41,79

24,17

Syria

0,00

0,21

5,24

11,17

22,32

61,06

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Australia

50,95

29,39

15,48

4,02

0,16

0,00

Saudi Arabia

35,61

33,25

23,96

7,05

0,13

0,00

Japan

11,59

30,26

40,85

15,36

1,74

0,20

Oman

1,80

6,69

17,00

54,39

17,72

2,40

China PR

0,05

0,40

2,47

17,09

58,62

21,37

Vietnam

0,00

0,01

0,24

2,09

21,63

76,03



To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team

qualify

diff Q

win

diff win

Iraq

42,81

-2,25

27,77

[64,87]

-4,55

Japan

40,85

13,65

23,77

[58,19]

10,61

Lebanon

34,44

25,28

10,93

[31,74]

7,48

Saudi Arabia

23,96

-6,83

9,57

[39,94]

0,31

Oman

17,00

-2,11

5,46

[32,12]

1,51

Australia

15,48

2,02

8,76

[56,59]

3,03

United Arab Emirates

10,47

-3,50

5,11

[48,81]

-2,25

Korea Republic

6,40

-13,02

4,98

[77,81]

-10,64

Syria

5,24

-3,99

2,34

[44,66]

-2,18

China PR

2,47

-3,72

0,72

[29,15]

-0,64

Iran

0,64

-2,52

0,52

[81,25]

-2,22

Vietnam

0,24

-3,01

0,07

[29,17]

-0,46



To qualify for the World Cup as number one or two in the group. In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team

WC

diff

Iran

99,27

2,97

Korea Republic

91,98

18,05

Australia

80,34

-0,78

Saudi Arabia

68,86

18,67

Japan

41,85

-14,09

Oman

8,49

-1,46

Iraq

4,19

-17,16

Lebanon

3,44

1,48

United Arab Emirates

0,91

-3,33

China PR

0,45

-1,54

Syria

0,21

-2,01

Vietnam

0,01

-0,80



Pots for the final draw


These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (without IPO's of course) is given:

team

WC

pot1

pot2

pot3

pot4

Qatar

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Brazil

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Belgium

99,97

99,97

0

0

0

France

99,94

99,94

0

0

0

England

99,77

99,77

0

0

0

Argentina

99,89

96,46

3,43

0

0

Italy

93,74

93,74

0

0

0

Spain

84,82

57,44

27,38

0

0

----------------------------

Mexico

99,01

25,36

71,88

1,77

0

Portugal

95,74