Sunday, February 18, 2024

OFC Cup of Nations 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number three in this series of simulation reports: Oceania.


The OFC Cup of Nations 2024 is the first continental final tournament in 8 years. The 2020 edition was first postponed and later in 2021 completely cancelled because of the strict COVID-19 measures in the Pacific island area. New Zealand was appointed to host that version.


The 2024 version now is hosted in Vanuatu and will be played from 15 to 30 June 2024. A separate qualification stage in March is played in Tonga between the four lowest ranked OFC-nations in the December 2023 ranking. This to decide one team that qualifies for the group stage proper.

Of the 4 lowest ranked teams American Samoa withdrew, so a single round robin group stage is played between Samoa, Cook Islands and host Tonga.


The group stage in June consists of two groups of four teams. The composition of the groups has been drawn last month.

After the group stage a knock-out stage follows with (cross) semi-finals between the numbers one and two from each group, a third place play-off and the final.
Also a fifth and a seventh place play-off is scheduled, between respectively the numbers three of each group and the numbers four of each group.


The complete tournament schedule is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


First the qualification group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:

qualification group

1st

2nd

3rd

avg

Samoa

36,11

33,40

30,49

1,94

Cook Islands

33,50

33,33

33,17

2,00

Tonga

30,39

33,27

36,34

2,06



That promises to be a tight affair, according to elo :)


Then the group stage of the final tournament with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

New Zealand

71,27

19,20

7,04

2,49

1,41

Solomon Islands

14,41

34,21

29,05

22,33

2,59

New Caledonia

7,13

23,83

32,68

36,36

2,98

Vanuatu

7,19

22,76

31,23

38,82

3,02

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Fiji

42,65

32,99

23,58

0,78

1,82

Tahiti

35,76

36,69

26,46

1,09

1,93

Papua New Guinea

21,46

29,85

45,35

3,34

2,31

Cook Islands

0,08

0,18

1,86

31,38

Samoa

0,05

0,26

2,29

33,51

Tonga

0,00

0,03

0,46

29,90



Then the knock-out stage. 
First the probabilities to qualify for the semi finals, the 5th place play-off and the 7th place play-off:

team

SF

po5

po7

New Zealand

90,47

7,04

2,49

Fiji

75,64

23,58

0,78

Tahiti

72,45

26,46

1,09

Papua New Guinea

51,31

45,35

3,34

Solomon Islands

48,62

29,05

22,33

New Caledonia

30,96

32,68

36,36

Vanuatu

29,95

31,23

38,82

Samoa

0,31

2,29

33,51

Cook Islands

0,26

1,86

31,38

Tonga

0,03

0,46

29,90



Then the probabilities to qualify for the final and 3rd place play-off. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals:

team

Final

Po3

New Zealand

79,47

[87,84]

11,00

[12,16]

Solomon Islands

32,80

[67,46]

15,82

[32,54]

Fiji

22,81

[30,16]

52,83

[69,84]

Tahiti

19,28

[26,61]

53,17

[73,39]

New Caledonia

18,48

[59,69]

12,48

[40,31]

Vanuatu

17,42

[58,16]

12,53

[41,84]

Papua New Guinea

9,73

[18,96]

41,58

[81,04]

Cook Islands

0,01

[03,85]

0,25

[96,15]

Samoa

0,00

[00,00]

0,31

[100,00]

Tonga

0,00

[00,00]

0,03

[100,00]



And the probabilities to win the OFC Nations Cup (and succeed the last champ New Zealand) or to become the tournament number three. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final or po3 respectively:

team

Winner

po3-w

New Zealand

62,02

[78,04]

8,64

[78,55]

Solomon Islands

12,06

[36,77]

9,82

[62,07]

Fiji

6,47

[28,36]

26,83

[50,79]

Vanuatu

6,02

[34,56]

7,18

[57,30]

New Caledonia

5,76

[31,17]

6,92

[55,45]

Tahiti

5,43

[28,16]

24,99

[47,00]

Papua New Guinea

2,23

[22,92]

15,52

[37,33]

Cook Islands

0,01

[100,00]

0,04

[16,00]

Samoa

0,00

[00,00]

0,05

[16,13]

Tonga

0,00

[00,00]

0,01

[33,33]



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. I=10 for FIFA World Series?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, they are just friendlies, played inside a FIFA match window. At least, that's what I expect.

      Delete