So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like. There might of course be minor changes from friendly matches that will still be planned for October/November 2025.
NOTE 1: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted 23 October 2025 ranking. That ranking follows on from the 18 September 2025 ranking.
Pos Country Points +/- +/-
1 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92
2 France 1882.22 0 7.01
3 Argentina 1872.43 0 0.00
4 England 1834.23 0 9.87
5 Portugal 1797.38 0 6.88
6 Brazil 1768.93 0 0.00
7 Netherlands 1768.67 0 8.71
8 Belgium 1755.18 0 2.93
9 Croatia 1729.04 0 6.43
10 Italy 1727.15 0 10.00
11 Germany 1724.20 0 11.30
12 Morocco 1710.22 0 0.00
13 Colombia 1697.47 0 1.66
14 Mexico 1693.44 0 3.01
15 United States 1681.62 0 3.23
16 Switzerland 1679.16 1 13.08
17 Uruguay 1677.72 -1 0.16
18 Denmark 1654.26 2 12.96
19 Senegal 1650.61 0 0.00
20 Japan 1646.15 -1 2.25
21 Iran 1626.66 0 0.00
22 Austria 1621.88 0 9.86
23 South Korea 1596.47 0 2.62
24 Ecuador 1583.90 0 2.09
25 Australia 1579.11 0 0.00
26 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01
27 Canada 1558.93 1 4.39
28 Ukraine 1557.43 -1 2.07
29 Panama 1552.98 0 12.44
30 Norway 1535.74 0 -4.10
31 Serbia 1530.36 0 -2.15
31 Wales 1530.07 5 11.01
33 Egypt 1525.66 0 0.00
34 Russia 1524.71 1 3.76
35 Poland 1519.42 -2 -4.42
36 Costa Rica 1513.24 4 17.19
37 Sweden 1511.61 -3 -10.14
38 Algeria 1510.26 0 0.00
39 Hungary 1508.72 3 16.31
40 Slovakia 1506.37 -2 -1.50
41 Czechia 1499.23 -2 2.23
42 Nigeria 1495.14 0 0.00
43 Greece 1491.79 4 6.58
44 Côte d'Ivoire 1491.78 0 0.00
45 Tunisia 1491.23 0 0.00
46 Paraguay 1483.20 0 -6.40
47 Scotland 1482.85 -4 -9.08
48 Qatar 1473.80 0 0.00
49 Slovenia 1471.29 3 8.63
50 Peru 1469.50 -1 0.18
51 Romania 1468.07 3 11.45
52 Cameroon 1466.47 0 0.00
53 South Africa 1459.90 0 0.00
54 Venezuela 1459.14 -3 -4.13
55 Mali 1455.54 0 0.00
56 Uzbekistan 1450.31 0 0.00
57 Chile 1437.72 0 -3.94
58 Iraq 1428.69 0 0.00
59 Saudi Arabia 1427.37 0 0.00
60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1421.32 0 0.00
61 Jamaica 1410.14 3 18.32
62 Burkina Faso 1397.65 0 0.00
63 Jordan 1395.54 0 0.00
64 Ireland 1386.51 -3 -14.67
65 North Macedonia 1383.79 0 -7.06
66 Honduras 1380.61 0 -3.41
67 United Arab Emirates 1379.94 0 0.00
68 Cape Verde Islands 1376.37 0 0.00
69 Georgia 1372.88 1 6.95
70 Albania 1372.00 -1 0.33
71 Finland 1366.61 0 6.33
72 Ghana 1356.67 0 0.00
73 Northern Ireland 1351.36 1 9.69
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1337.21 -1 -16.58
75 Israel 1332.82 2 8.25
76 Iceland 1332.74 -1 0.40
77 Gabon 1329.91 0 0.00
78 Montenegro 1321.53 1 -1.24
79 Bolivia 1319.68 -1 -4.88
80 Guinea 1317.72 0 0.00
81 Oman 1300.11 0 0.00
82 Zambia 1293.32 0 0.00
83 Uganda 1287.75 0 0.00
84 Syria 1276.36 1 3.65
85 New Zealand 1271.59 -1 -4.01
86 Haiti 1269.46 1 1.42
87 Curaçao 1267.63 -1 -3.48
88 Angola 1267.19 0 0.00
88 Bahrain 1267.16 0 0.00
90 Equatorial Guinea 1266.34 0 0.00
91 El Salvador 1263.16 1 2.59
92 Benin 1259.38 0 0.00
93 China 1249.06 0 0.00
94 Bulgaria 1247.19 -3 -15.88
95 Guatemala 1244.57 1 3.36
96 Thailand 1239.84 1 4.47
97 Kosovo 1235.90 -2 -11.57
98 Palestine 1230.55 0 0.00
99 Mozambique 1227.53 0 0.00
100 Trinidad and Tobago 1227.52 0 -1.79
101 Tajikistan 1224.93 1 4.72
102 Luxembourg 1212.80 -4 -19.48
103 Belarus 1202.09 0 -10.46
104 Kyrgyzstan 1201.22 0 0.00
105 Armenia 1196.18 -1 -8.52
106 Comoros 1192.40 0 0.00
107 Lebanon 1190.64 3 5.95
108 Vietnam 1189.51 3 5.89
109 Tanzania 1188.70 0 0.00
110 Namibia 1187.36 0 0.00
111 Kenya 1185.55 0 0.00
112 Madagascar 1181.22 0 0.00
113 Mauritania 1179.20 0 0.00
114 Libya 1178.00 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1168.41 1 6.88
116 Gambia 1162.12 0 0.00
117 Sudan 1157.11 0 0.00
118 Kazakhstan 1153.42 0 -2.30
119 Togo 1152.85 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Niger 1149.78 0 0.00
122 Sierra Leone 1149.10 0 0.00
123 Indonesia 1144.73 0 0.00
124 India 1140.46 3 6.89
125 Zimbabwe 1138.19 0 0.00
126 Azerbaijan 1132.77 -2 -9.48
127 Guinea-Bissau 1132.73 0 0.00
128 Malawi 1130.34 0 0.00
128 Estonia 1130.27 -2 -4.44
130 Cyprus 1121.85 0 -3.26
131 Rwanda 1118.42 0 0.00
131 Congo 1118.36 0 0.00
133 Turkmenistan 1110.99 2 8.90
134 Kuwait 1100.38 0 0.00
135 Surinam 1092.68 -2 -18.38
136 Nicaragua 1091.82 -2 -15.20
137 Philippines 1090.95 3 9.51
138 Latvia 1090.25 -1 -6.44
139 Central African Republic 1083.57 0 0.00
140 Faroe Islands 1080.61 -1 -1.97
141 Hong Kong 1075.84 2 10.80
142 Dominican Republic 1073.54 0 0.00
143 Botswana 1072.06 0 0.00
144 Burundi 1060.22 0 0.00
145 Lithuania 1051.43 0 -4.14
146 Yemen 1048.83 4 8.70
147 Liberia 1048.03 0 0.00
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 New Caledonia 1042.62 0 0.00
150 St. Kitts and Nevis 1041.53 0 0.00
151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
152 Fiji 1035.11 0 0.00
153 Ethiopia 1030.76 0 0.00
154 Lesotho 1020.14 0 0.00
154 Puerto Rico 1020.07 0 0.00
156 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
157 Afghanistan 1015.06 0 -0.60
158 Moldova 999.05 0 -7.15
159 Eswatini 998.40 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Myanmar 991.35 1 0.60
163 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
164 Singapore 982.77 -4 -10.80
165 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00
166 Grenada 978.40 0 0.00
167 Malta 971.78 -1 -7.48
168 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
169 South Sudan 966.20 0 0.00
170 Bermuda 964.06 -2 -13.04
171 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 962.43 0 0.00
172 Maldives 945.02 0 -9.51
173 Taiwan 938.74 0 -8.90
174 Andorra 937.26 0 -5.67
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Chad 913.87 0 0.00
178 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
179 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
180 Mauritius 902.78 0 0.00
181 Nepal 902.44 -2 -6.88
182 Dominica 901.37 0 0.00
183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
184 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
185 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
186 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
187 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
188 Bangladesh 874.67 -3 -6.89
189 Laos 871.16 -1 -5.89
190 Bhutan 867.86 -1 -8.70
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
195 Djibouti 847.89 0 0.00
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.17 0 0.00
197 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
198 Timor Leste 835.55 -1 -4.72
199 Sri Lanka 833.70 -1 -4.47
200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
201 Somalia 818.59 0 0.00
202 Gibraltar 818.42 -2 -4.94
203 Pakistan 808.98 0 -3.65
204 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.33 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 799.97 0 -2.13
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 768.50 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00
211 San Marino 725.89 0 -1.88
From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:
1) United States (certain, hosts)
2) Mexico (certain, hosts)
3) Canada (certain, hosts)
4) Spain (UEFA Group E Winner)
5) France (UEFA Group D Winner)
6) Argentina (CONMEBOL #1)
7) England (UEFA Group K Winner)
8) Portugal (UEFA Group F Winner)
9) Brazil (CONMEBOL #5)
10) Netherlands (UEFA Group G Winner)
11) Belgium (UEFA Group J Winner)
13) Croatia (UEFA Group L Winner)
Second seeds would then be:
13) Germany (UEFA Group A Winner)
14) Morocco (CAF Group E Winner)
15) Colombia (CONMEBOL #3)
16) Switzerland (UEFA Group B Winner)
17) Uruguay (CONMEBOL #4)
18) Denmark (UEFA Group C Winner)
19) Senegal (CAF Group B Winner)
20) Japan (AFC Group C Winner)
21) Iran (AFC Group A Winner)
22) Austria (UEFA Group H Winner)
23) South Korea (AFC Group B Winner)
24) Ecuador (CONMEBOL #2)
Third seeds would then be:
25) Australia (AFC Group C Runner Up)
26) Panama (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)
27) Norway (UEFA Group I Winner)
28) Egypt (CAF Group A Winner)
29) Algeria (CAF Group G Winner)
30) Côte d'Ivoire (CAF Group F Winner)
31) Tunisia (CAF Group H Winner)
32) Paraguay (CONMEBOL #6)
33) Qatar (if they qualify as AFC Fourth Round Group Winner)
34) South Africa (CAF Group C Winner)
35) Uzbekistan (AFC Group A Runner Up)
36) Saudi Arabia (if they qualify as AFC Fourth Round Group Winner)
Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):
- Jordan (AFC Group B Runner Up)
- Cape Verde Islands (CAF Group D Winner)
- Ghana (CAF Group I Winner)
- New Zealand (Oceania Winner)
- 4 x UEFA Playoff Winners (assuming the highest ranked teams of the November 2025 ranking: Italy? Türkiye? Ukraine? Serbia? With Wales, Poland, Sweden and Hungary being the next highest ranked teams)
- 2 x CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner (assuming the highest ranked teams, two from: Jamaica? Honduras? Costa Rica? El Salvador? Curaçao? Haiti? Surinam?)
- 0 x AFC qualifier (assuming Qatar and Saudi Arabia win their respective groups and will therefore be seeded in the third group above, otherwise from: Iraq? United Arab Emirates? Oman? Indonesia?)
- 2 x Intercontinental Playoff Winners
Notable changes are of course that Croatia are now predicted to make it as one of the top seeds, with Germany dropping to pot 2, Ecuador reaching pot 2 and Australia dropping to pot 3.
It is still very odd that CAF or FIFA haven't announced how they are handling the World Cup qualifying runners-up table in light of one of the groups being a team short. If they are going down the path of not counting results against the 6th-placed teams, this will surely have an impact. In the interests of transparency, this should really be announced before the final double-matchdays next week.
ReplyDeleteReally? You find it odd? ;-) This type of behavior has been prevalent especially when it has concerned FIFA in the past. Saying that, not that I've looked into it, but there's also probably not too many general meetings planned where all members are present to be able to make such decisions. The cynical among us will think that they don't hurry with such decisions as publishing a particular rule will probably make them very unpopular. If they decide just before the draw the controversy will probably be overshadowed by the draw and then more difficult to challenge.
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