Iraq 57.65%
United Arab Emirates 42.35%
Saturday, October 18, 2025
2026 World Cup Qualifying Asia Fifth Round - 10000 Simulations
2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF 10000 Simulations (update 18 October 2025)
Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round.
So it would look like currently Panama, Jamaica and Honduras are slight favorites to win their groups and qualify for the finals, with Costa Rica having the best chances to upset that, followed by Curaçao. Surinam and Guatemala are still in the running for the Intercontinental qualifying spot. Comparing this to the previous simulation El Salvador's chances have dropped significantly.
Group A
Group B
Group C
2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 18 October 2025)
Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.
Qualifying Groups
Group A - Germany and Slovakia swapped with Germany now having the better chances again. Northern Ireland look pretty certain to reach the playoffs.
Group B - Switzerland are odds on favorite to win the group, and further below Kosovo and Sweden swapped places, but Sweden are certain to reach the playoffs no matter what place they finish in the group if the simulations are anything to go by,
Group C - It's a simple two-horse race between Denmark and Scotland.
Group D - France is clear favorite for the finals, and below that Ukraine and Iceland swapped places, with the former now being favorite to grab the playoff spot.
Group E - Spain is still hot favorite to qualify automatically with Türkiye strong favorite for the playoff spot.
Group F - Portugal should qualify automatically, and Hungary are most likely to take the playoff spot.
Group G - The Netherlands should secure the top spot and Poland will then qualify for the playoffs.
Group H - Austria should prevail to take the top spot, but Romania is in the race again for second place, but even if they don't manage that, they're favorites for the playoff spot via the Nations League spot.
Group I - Norway should take the top spot with Italy requiring a huge win against them to stand any chance to not be destined for the playoffs for the third straight time.
Group J - Belgium should qualify automatically and Wales and North Macedonia should fight it out for the playoff place, but both should be pretty certain to qualify for the playoffs via the Nations League if they don't finish runner-up.
Group K - With England having qualified, Albania and Serbia will fight for the runner-up place.
Group L - According to all simulation runs Croatia ends up on top so seems pretty certain to qualify. Below them the Faroe Islands and Montenegro swapped places, but Czechia are still odds on favorite to take the qualifying spot.
NOTE 1: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
Group E
Group F
Group G
Group H
Group I
Group J
Group K
Group L
Croatia 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Czechia 0.00% 98.84% 1.16% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 28.49% 71.51%
Faroe Islands 0.00% 1.16% 98.78% 0.06% 0.00% 1.16% 0.02% 99.98%
Montenegro 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 99.89% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 99.95% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Playoffs
Likelihood
The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.
NOTE 1: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round. And then in brackets are the old percentage from June 2025, and finally the change since last time).
FRnk Grp Playoff Prev Change
Czechia 44 L 100.00% (88.07% +11.93%)
Sweden 40 B 100.00% (90.83% +9.17%)
North Macedonia 65 J 99.85% (93.93% +5.92%)
Wales 34 J 99.63% (90.40% +9.23%)
Northern Ireland 69 A 99.42% (95.62% +3.80%)
Romania 47 H 99.33% (99.32% +0.01%)
Poland 33 G 97.49% (82.09% +15.40%)
Türkiye 26 E 96.72% (68.23% +28.49%)
Italy 9 I 86.23% (70.69% +15.54%)
Hungary 37 F 79.31% (55.38% +23.93%)
Scotland 38 C 75.10% (38.95% +36.15%)
Slovakia 46 A 70.41% (43.09% +27.32%)
Ukraine 27 D 70.03% (52.47% +17.56%)
Kosovo 84 B 70.01% (20.53% +49.48%)
Albania 61 K 68.05% (27.72% +40.33%)
Moldova 156 I 53.07% (59.18% -6.11%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 75 H 42.52% (67.15% -24.63%)
Serbia 36 K 32.02% (70.75% -38.73%)
Iceland 74 D 27.34% (42.57% -15.23%)
Denmark 20 C 24.90% (28.85% -3.95%)
Germany 10 A 24.89% (50.43% -25.54%)
Slovenia 51 B 23.25% (32.71% -9.46%)
Ireland 62 F 17.82% (20.05% -2.23%)
Norway 29 I 13.77% (23.62% -9.85%)
Austria 24 H 8.62% (10.19% -1.57%)
San Marino 210 H 4.32% (15.19% -10.87%)
Spain 1 E 3.10% (5.16% -2.06%)
Switzerland 17 B 2.86% (12.63% -9.77%)
France 3 D 2.65% (2.90% -0.25%)
Netherlands 6 G 2.51% (8.73% -6.22%)
Armenia 104 F 2.42% (20.49% -18.07%)
Faroe Islands 127 L 1.16% (0.11% 1.05%)
Belgium 8 J 0.52% (12.58% -12.06%)
Portugal 5 F 0.46% (4.92% -4.46%)
Georgia 70 E 0.18% (22.05% -21.87%)
Israel 78 I 0.02% (6.28% -6.26%)
Luxembourg 97 A 0.02% (3.06% -3.04%)
Andorra 172 K 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Azerbaijan 123 D 0.00% (2.17% -2.17%)
Belarus 103 C 0.00% (1.22% -1.22%)
Bulgaria 91 E 0.00% (5.07% -5.07%)
Croatia 11 L 0.00% (11.87% -11.87%)
Cyprus 125 H 0.00% (0.08% -0.08%)
England 4 K 0.00% (1.37% -1.37%)
Estonia 130 I 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Finland 72 G 0.00% (9.15% -9.15%)
Gibraltar 200 L 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Greece 48 C 0.00% (31.49% -31.49%)
Kazakhstan 115 J 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Latvia 139 K 0.00% (0.30% -0.30%)
Liechtenstein 206 J 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Lithuania 146 G 0.00% (0.04% -0.04%)
Malta 166 G 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Montenegro 81 L 0.00% (0.32% -0.32%)
Results
The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.
NOTE 1: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Los-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.
NOTE 2: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
NOTE 3: *** For Israel and Luxembourg due to the small number of samples the numbers are slightly exaggerated and not to be trusted.
FRnk Grp Win-Fin Lose-Fi Win-Sem Los-Sem Playoff
France 3 D 64.15% 17.74% 81.89% 18.11% 2.65%
Portugal 5 F 63.04% 19.57% 82.61% 17.39% 0.46%
Spain 1 E 62.58% 22.90% 85.48% 14.52% 3.10%
Belgium 8 J 55.77% 28.85% 84.62% 15.38% 0.52%
Netherlands 6 G 53.39% 23.51% 76.89% 23.11% 2.51%
Italy 9 I 51.13% 24.56% 75.69% 24.31% 86.23%
(Israel *** 78 I 50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 50.00% 0.02%)
Germany 10 A 46.32% 26.68% 73.00% 27.00% 24.89%
Switzerland 17 B 40.21% 25.87% 66.08% 33.92% 2.86%
Denmark 20 C 39.28% 28.35% 67.63% 32.37% 24.90%
Austria 24 H 35.85% 30.39% 66.24% 33.76% 8.62%
Türkiye 26 E 35.50% 28.96% 64.46% 35.54% 96.72%
Ukraine 27 D 33.84% 29.64% 63.49% 36.51% 70.03%
Serbia 36 K 33.17% 30.07% 63.24% 36.76% 32.02%
Poland 33 G 30.50% 30.60% 61.09% 38.91% 97.49%
Norway 29 I 30.14% 27.67% 57.81% 42.19% 13.77%
Wales 34 J 28.98% 26.63% 55.61% 44.39% 99.63%
Czechia 44 L 28.49% 29.80% 58.29% 41.71% 100.00%
Hungary 37 F 27.39% 29.45% 56.84% 43.16% 79.31%
Slovakia 46 A 26.86% 28.87% 55.73% 44.27% 70.41%
Scotland 38 C 25.43% 27.20% 52.64% 47.36% 75.10%
Sweden 40 B 25.25% 23.44% 48.69% 51.31% 100.00%
Slovenia 51 B 21.89% 25.85% 47.74% 52.26% 23.25%
Romania 47 H 20.11% 22.71% 42.83% 57.17% 99.33%
Ireland 62 F 17.51% 21.83% 39.34% 60.66% 17.82%
North Macedonia 65 J 14.38% 21.27% 35.65% 64.35% 99.85%
Albania 61 K 13.64% 22.19% 35.83% 64.17% 68.05%
Iceland 74 D 12.73% 21.65% 34.38% 65.62% 27.34%
Northern Ireland 69 A 12.67% 20.44% 33.11% 66.89% 99.42%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 75 H 12.58% 21.26% 33.84% 66.16% 42.52%
Georgia 70 E 11.11% 16.67% 27.78% 72.22% 0.18%
Armenia 104 F 9.09% 21.90% 30.99% 69.01% 2.42%
Kosovo 84 B 7.87% 18.68% 26.55% 73.45% 70.01%
Faroe Islands 127 L 1.72% 18.10% 19.83% 80.17% 1.16%
Moldova 156 I 1.62% 10.89% 12.51% 87.49% 53.07%
San Marino 210 H 0.46% 2.31% 2.78% 97.22% 4.32%
(Luxembourg *** 97 A 0.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 0.02%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Andorra 172 K n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Azerbaijan 123 D n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Belarus 103 C n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Bulgaria 91 E n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Croatia 11 L n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Cyprus 125 H n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
England 4 K n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Estonia 130 I n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Finland 72 G n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Gibraltar 200 L n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Greece 48 C n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Kazakhstan 115 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Latvia 139 K n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Liechtenstein 206 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Lithuania 146 G n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Malta 166 G n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Montenegro 81 L n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%Overall Qualifying
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify. In brackets are previous percentages from September 2025, and the change since then).
NOTE 1: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
NOTE 2: The first separation shows the 12 likely group winners. The next group shows those still in with a chance of qualifying, and the final groups shows the list of countries that according to the simulation no longer have a chance to qualify.
Frnk Grp Qual NotQual Prev Change
Croatia 11 L 100.00% 0.00% (93.47% +6.53%)
England 4 K 100.00% 0.00% (99.43% +0.57%)
Portugal 5 F 99.83% 0.17% (97.38% +2.45%)
Belgium 8 J 99.77% 0.23% (91.00% +8.77%)
France 3 D 99.05% 0.95% (98.78% +0.27%)
Spain 1 E 98.84% 1.16% (98.12% +0.72%)
Netherlands 6 G 98.83% 1.17% (95.03% +3.80%)
Switzerland 17 B 98.29% 1.71% (87.66% +10.63%)
Austria 24 H 93.65% 6.35% (92.32% +1.33%)
Norway 29 I 90.38% 9.62% (83.14% +7.24%)
Germany 10 A 86.64% 13.36% (73.42% +13.22%)
Denmark 20 C 84.88% 15.12% (71.82% +13.06%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Italy 9 I 57.86% 42.14% (57.86% 0.00%)
Scotland 38 C 44.00% 56.00% (32.34% +11.66%)
Slovakia 46 A 43.80% 56.20% (55.75% -11.95%)
Türkiye 26 E 37.44% 62.56% (27.21% +10.23%)
Poland 33 G 32.24% 67.76% (32.15% +0.09%)
Wales 34 J 29.24% 70.76% (35.14% -5.90%)
Czechia 44 L 28.49% 71.51% (34.38% -5.89%)
Ukraine 27 D 26.27% 73.73% (19.07% +7.20%)
Sweden 40 B 25.25% 74.75% (36.30% -11.05%)
Hungary 37 F 22.18% 77.82% (19.25% +2.93%)
Romania 47 H 20.65% 79.35% (20.98% -0.33%)
North Macedonia 65 J 14.51% 85.49% (19.53% -5.02%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 75 H 14.12% 85.88% (18.57% -4.45%)
Northern Ireland 69 A 12.60% 87.40% (14.24% -1.64%)
Serbia 36 K 10.62% 89.38% (23.11% -12.49%)
Albania 61 K 9.28% 90.72% (4.23% +5.05%)
Kosovo 84 B 8.37% 91.63% (4.58% +3.79%)
Slovenia 51 B 5.09% 94.91% (13.57% -8.48%)
Iceland 74 D 3.56% 96.44% (6.73% -3.17%)
Ireland 62 F 3.12% 96.88% (5.17% -2.05%)
Moldova 156 I 0.86% 99.14% (0.99% -0.13%)
Armenia 104 F 0.22% 99.78% (1.88% -1.66%)
Faroe Islands 127 L 0.02% 99.98% (0.01% +0.01%)
Georgia 70 E 0.02% 99.98% (4.53% -4.51%)
San Marino 210 H 0.02% 99.98% (0.03% -0.01%)
Israel 78 I 0.01% 99.99% (1.27% -1.26%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Andorra 172 K 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Azerbaijan 123 D 0.00% 100.00% (0.11% -0.11%)
Belarus 103 C 0.00% 100.00% (0.46% -0.46%)
Bulgaria 91 E 0.00% 100.00% (0.46% -0.46%)
Cyprus 125 H 0.00% 100.00% (0.01% -0.01%)
Estonia 130 I 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Finland 72 G 0.00% 100.00% (1.74% -1.74%)
Gibraltar 200 L 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Greece 48 C 0.00% 100.00% (25.58% -25.58%)
Kazakhstan 115 J 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Latvia 139 K 0.00% 100.00% (0.02% -0.02%)
Liechtenstein 206 J 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Lithuania 146 G 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Luxembourg 97 A 0.00% 100.00% (1.18% -1.18%)
Malta 166 G 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Montenegro 81 L 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Wednesday, October 15, 2025
2026 World Cup Seeding Pots (update 15 October 2025)
So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the 28 November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, given simulation yet to be published but run for the purposes of this determination, what the seeding pots will likely look like.
NOTE 1: This doesn't include matches still to be scheduled or not yet in my database. For example, Brazil's friendlies are still TBD, but I'll post updates if there's any expected changes because of such matches.
NOTE 2: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted 23 October 2025 ranking (see http://www.football-rankings.info/2025/10/fifa-ranking-october-2025-sneak-peak.html).
2 Argentina 1872.43 0 0.00
3 France 1870.00 0 7.29
4 England 1834.12 0 9.82
5 Portugal 1785.17 0 7.17
6 Netherlands 1768.67 0 8.71
7 Brazil 1758.85 0 0.00
8 Belgium 1743.17 0 3.16
9 Italy 1727.01 0 9.86
10 Germany 1724.09 0 10.79
11 Croatia 1716.88 0 6.73
12 Morocco 1710.11 0 0.00
13 Colombia 1700.71 0 4.99
14 Mexico 1685.75 0 3.23
15 Uruguay 1677.62 0 0.04
16 United States 1676.88 0 3.39
17 Switzerland 1666.81 0 13.49
18 Denmark 1654.25 2 13.23
19 Senegal 1650.61 0 0.00
20 Japan 1647.65 -1 2.31
21 Iran 1618.28 0 0.00
22 Austria 1597.52 2 10.54
23 South Korea 1596.62 -1 2.70
24 Ecuador 1591.74 -1 2.03
25 Australia 1584.02 0 0.00
26 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01
27 Canada 1559.10 1 4.47
28 Ukraine 1557.47 -1 2.11
29 Panama 1540.88 2 12.66
30 Russia 1539.47 -1 8.52
31 Wales 1529.82 3 11.01
32 Norway 1525.99 -2 -3.93
33 Egypt 1525.31 0 0.00
34 Hungary 1520.71 3 15.80
35 Poland 1519.42 -2 -4.42
36 Algeria 1510.26 0 0.00
37 Serbia 1506.27 -1 -1.57
38 Nigeria 1505.96 3 10.57
39 Costa Rica 1501.74 6 18.00
40 Scotland 1494.27 -2 -9.93
41 Côte d'Ivoire 1491.78 0 0.00
42 Paraguay 1491.50 -3 -6.65
43 Tunisia 1490.80 0 0.00
44 Romania 1490.66 3 10.52
45 Sweden 1487.73 -5 -9.26
46 Czechia 1487.00 -2 2.32
47 Slovakia 1482.80 -1 -0.55
48 Greece 1480.38 0 7.39
49 Slovenia 1471.72 2 8.79
50 Qatar 1461.60 0 0.00
51 Cameroon 1460.26 3 6.55
52 Peru 1459.52 -3 -4.52
53 Venezuela 1459.14 -3 -4.13
54 Mali 1455.78 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1452.35 0 0.00
56 Chile 1442.93 0 -4.00
57 South Africa 1427.77 0 0.00
58 Saudi Arabia 1427.37 0 0.00
59 Iraq 1426.42 -2 -2.28
60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1422.09 0 0.78
61 Albania 1401.07 0 -0.27
62 Burkina Faso 1398.05 0 0.00
63 Honduras 1392.04 1 -4.19
64 Jamaica 1387.16 4 19.99
65 Ireland 1386.62 -4 -14.56
66 North Macedonia 1383.46 -1 -7.15
67 United Arab Emirates 1382.21 0 2.28
68 Jordan 1380.87 0 0.00
69 Northern Ireland 1375.39 0 9.12
70 Georgia 1372.88 0 6.95
71 Finland 1366.67 1 6.40
72 Cape Verde Islands 1364.26 0 0.00
73 Ghana 1356.40 0 0.00
74 Iceland 1344.72 0 -0.12
75 Israel 1333.06 3 8.48
76 Bolivia 1329.54 0 -5.01
77 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1325.36 -2 -16.01
78 Gabon 1321.25 -1 -8.66
79 Oman 1312.32 0 0.00
80 Guinea 1305.22 0 0.00
81 Montenegro 1297.09 0 -0.79
82 Curaçao 1290.50 0 -5.02
83 Uganda 1287.75 0 0.00
84 New Zealand 1281.44 0 -4.08
85 Syria 1276.67 1 3.95
86 Kosovo 1271.72 -1 -13.02
87 Haiti 1269.49 1 1.17
88 Zambia 1268.60 0 0.00
89 Angola 1267.45 0 0.00
89 Bahrain 1267.16 0 0.00
91 Benin 1259.39 0 0.00
92 Equatorial Guinea 1254.37 0 0.00
93 El Salvador 1251.20 2 3.44
94 China 1249.06 0 0.00
95 Bulgaria 1247.19 -4 -15.88
96 Guatemala 1245.19 0 3.68
97 Thailand 1240.18 0 4.82
98 Palestine 1230.55 0 0.00
99 Trinidad and Tobago 1227.56 1 -2.35
100 Mozambique 1227.53 0 0.00
101 Tajikistan 1224.93 1 4.72
102 Luxembourg 1212.45 -4 -19.35
103 Belarus 1202.09 0 -10.69
104 Kyrgyzstan 1201.22 0 0.00
105 Armenia 1196.30 -1 -8.40
106 Madagascar 1193.48 0 0.00
107 Lebanon 1190.64 3 5.95
108 Vietnam 1189.51 3 5.89
109 Tanzania 1187.08 0 0.00
109 Niger 1187.00 0 0.00
111 Kenya 1185.55 0 0.00
112 Comoros 1180.18 0 0.00
113 Mauritania 1179.20 0 0.00
114 Libya 1177.77 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1168.41 3 6.88
116 Kazakhstan 1165.96 -1 -2.51
117 Namibia 1162.80 0 0.00
118 Gambia 1162.12 0 0.00
119 Sudan 1157.11 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Sierra Leone 1149.10 0 0.00
122 Indonesia 1144.73 0 0.00
123 Togo 1140.35 0 0.00
124 Cyprus 1133.50 1 -3.93
125 Azerbaijan 1132.97 -2 -9.28
126 Faroe Islands 1129.95 1 -2.46
127 Zimbabwe 1125.52 0 0.00
128 Estonia 1118.08 1 -4.17
129 Rwanda 1117.87 0 0.00
130 Surinam 1116.12 -4 -19.77
131 Guinea-Bissau 1108.09 0 0.00
132 Congo 1105.96 0 0.00
133 Malawi 1105.34 0 0.00
134 India 1104.52 2 7.87
135 Kuwait 1098.33 0 0.00
136 Nicaragua 1091.86 -4 -14.97
137 Philippines 1090.95 4 9.51
138 Turkmenistan 1087.52 4 9.43
139 Liberia 1085.00 0 0.00
140 Botswana 1084.56 0 0.00
141 Central African Republic 1083.57 0 0.00
142 Latvia 1077.75 -3 -6.51
143 Dominican Republic 1073.54 0 0.00
144 Lesotho 1065.24 0 0.00
145 Burundi 1060.22 0 0.00
146 Ethiopia 1055.36 0 0.00
147 Hong Kong 1052.01 1 -0.53
148 Lithuania 1051.43 -2 -4.14
149 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
150 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
151 New Caledonia 1042.62 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1041.53 0 0.00
153 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
154 Fiji 1035.11 0 0.00
155 Singapore 1031.02 0 0.53
156 Puerto Rico 1020.07 0 0.00
157 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1012.73 -2 -7.47
159 Eswatini 1010.52 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Afghanistan 991.18 0 -0.01
163 Myanmar 990.76 0 0.01
164 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
165 Grenada 986.38 0 0.00
166 South Sudan 978.70 0 0.00
167 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 972.68 0 0.00
168 Malta 971.71 -2 -7.48
169 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
170 Cuba 965.20 0 0.00
171 Bermuda 964.13 -3 -12.62
172 Andorra 949.58 0 -5.52
173 Maldives 945.02 0 -9.51
174 Taiwan 938.21 0 -9.43
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Mauritius 915.51 0 0.00
178 Chad 913.87 0 0.00
179 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
180 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
181 Nepal 902.44 -1 -6.88
182 Dominica 901.37 0 0.00
183 Bangladesh 886.19 0 -7.87
184 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
185 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
186 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
187 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
188 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
189 São Tomé and Príncipe 871.17 0 0.00
189 Laos 871.16 -1 -5.89
191 Bhutan 867.86 -2 -8.70
192 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
193 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
194 Sri Lanka 857.35 -1 -4.82
195 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
196 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
197 Djibouti 847.89 0 0.00
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.55 -1 -4.72
200 Pakistan 833.14 -1 -3.95
201 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
202 Somalia 818.59 0 0.00
203 Gibraltar 818.03 -2 -5.29
204 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.33 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 799.83 0 -2.16
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 765.41 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00
211 San Marino 726.15 0 -1.79
From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:
Second seeds would then be:
Third seeds would then be:
Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):