That's the craziest draw I ever witnessed, and I had to wait until around 02:15 local time to before I saw the full results. So what does it all mean? Well, after adapting my software to be able to deal with the combinations for third place I've been able to run the first simulation, but it's not ideal yet. For now I base first/second/third/fourth place on points, goal difference and goals scored, and otherwise the latest FIFA ranking. For now I don't take into account results/goals between the teams tied on points, and while I also record yellow/red cards in my archive and could therefore try to model which teams would be most likely to ranking higher/lower due to those, for now I take neither into account.
For the playoffs, I've assumed the winners as suggested by the http://www.football-rankings.info/2025/11/2026-world-cup-qualifying-uefa-playoffs.html and http://www.football-rankings.info/2025/11/2026-world-cup-qualifying-inter.html posts.
I'll publish the full data later given that there's a lot of data and not that much time, but for now here's the data that I can easily and quickly publish. Obviously there'll also be updates between now and June 2026, with intermediate match results and FIFA rankings likely to have an effect on the simulation, especially the upcoming 2025 Africa Cup of Nations which is likely to see positive changes with respect to the favorites Morocco and Senegal.
Winner
Spain 11.21% (repeat winner)
Argentina 10.82% (repeat winner)
France 10.26% (repeat winner)
England 7.48% (repeat winner)
Portugal 5.31%
Brazil 4.93% (repeat winner)
Netherlands 4.44%
Belgium 4.40%
United States 3.33%
Germany 3.28% (repeat winner)
Croatia 3.22%
Morocco 3.13%
Italy 2.99% (repeat winner)
Colombia 2.59%
Mexico 2.46%
Uruguay 2.32% (repeat winner)
Senegal 1.84%
Denmark 1.70%
Japan 1.63%
Switzerland 1.56%
Iran 1.19%
South Korea 1.11%
Ecuador 1.01%
Australia 0.90%
Türkiye 0.88%
Austria 0.86%
Canada 0.74%
Ukraine 0.64%
Egypt 0.49%
Norway 0.48%
Panama 0.38%
Scotland 0.33%
Côte d'Ivoire 0.32%
Algeria 0.32%
Paraguay 0.26%
Tunisia 0.22%
Qatar 0.18%
Uzbekistan 0.17%
Saudi Arabia 0.14%
Iraq 0.13%
South Africa 0.13%
Cape Verde Islands 0.06%
Ghana 0.05%
Democratic Rep Congo 0.03%
Haiti 0.03%
Jordan 0.02%
New Zealand 0.02%
Curaçao 0.01%
Group Winner
Argentina 69.85%
Spain 66.45%
France 62.78%
England 54.35%
Belgium 51.65%
Portugal 50.33%
Germany 50.21%
Brazil 48.55%
Netherlands 46.07%
United States 40.99%
Mexico 40.81%
Italy 38.71%
Morocco 37.60%
Colombia 34.85%
Croatia 32.04%
Denmark 29.24%
Ecuador 28.81%
Iran 28.07%
Switzerland 27.91%
Japan 26.97%
Uruguay 24.98%
Canada 23.46%
Australia 22.99%
South Korea 21.71%
Turkiye 21.56%
Senegal 20.94%
Egypt 17.14%
Côte d'Ivoire 16.66%
Ukraine 16.29%
Austria 15.83%
Paraguay 14.46%
Scotland 11.83%
Norway 11.13%
Tunisia 10.67%
Panama 10.63%
Algeria 10.05%
Qatar 9.92%
Uzbekistan 8.27%
South Africa 8.24%
Democratic Rep Congo 6.55%
Iraq 5.15%
Saudi Arabia 5.13%
Curaçao 4.32%
Jordan 4.27%
Cape Verde Islands 3.44%
New Zealand 3.14%
Ghana 2.98%
Haiti 2.02%
Qualify from Group
"Qual" represents the percentage in the simulation that the country qualified for the round of 32, "elim3" represents the percentage in the simulation that the country finished in third place and didn't qualify for the round of 32, and "elim4" represents the percentage in the simulation that the country finished in last place in the group, thus being eliminated after just 3 matches.
Qual Elim3 Elim4
Spain 96.91% 1.18% 1.91%
Argentina 96.35% 1.19% 2.46%
France 94.83% 1.77% 3.40%
England 93.99% 2.38% 3.63%
Brazil 92.55% 3.35% 4.10%
Portugal 92.12% 2.76% 5.12%
Belgium 91.81% 3.09% 5.10%
Germany 91.55% 2.83% 5.62%
Morocco 89.81% 4.13% 6.06%
Netherlands 86.78% 3.90% 9.32%
Colombia 85.23% 5.35% 9.42%
Croatia 85.19% 5.70% 9.11%
Mexico 84.41% 4.66% 10.93%
Uruguay 84.30% 6.05% 9.65%
United States 83.36% 4.36% 12.28%
Italy 82.72% 4.63% 12.65%
Iran 82.24% 6.58% 11.18%
Ecuador 80.21% 6.66% 13.13%
Denmark 76.57% 6.93% 16.50%
Senegal 75.41% 8.46% 16.13%
Switzerland 75.09% 6.37% 18.54%
Japan 73.67% 7.44% 18.89%
Austria 70.86% 10.26% 18.88%
Egypt 69.97% 10.70% 19.33%
Canada 69.53% 8.05% 22.42%
South Korea 68.97% 8.12% 22.91%
Australia 67.72% 7.66% 24.62%
Côte d'Ivoire 66.25% 11.14% 22.61%
Türkiye 65.43% 7.78% 26.79%
Scotland 62.87% 14.13% 23.00%
Ukraine 60.29% 9.50% 30.21%
Algeria 59.72% 13.28% 27.00%
Panama 57.78% 14.59% 27.63%
Norway 56.72% 12.97% 30.31%
Paraguay 54.48% 9.21% 36.31%
Tunisia 47.90% 10.52% 41.58%
Uzbekistan 46.30% 13.83% 39.87%
Qatar 43.96% 9.65% 46.39%
Saudi Arabia 43.40% 17.22% 39.38%
Democratic Rep Congo 41.09% 13.32% 45.59%
South Africa 40.26% 10.08% 49.66%
Iraq 37.68% 12.16% 50.16%
Jordan 35.42% 12.92% 51.66%
Cape Verde Islands 33.94% 17.00% 49.06%
Curaçao 30.04% 11.32% 58.64%
Ghana 27.42% 12.95% 59.63%
New Zealand 25.29% 10.32% 64.39%
Haiti 21.61% 11.55% 66.84%
Final Matchups
Argentina v Spain 2.72%
Argentina v France 2.16%
England v Spain 1.83%
England v France 1.63%
France v Spain 1.27%
France v Portugal 1.12%
Brazil v France 1.11%
Portugal v Spain 1.08%
Brazil v Spain 1.06%
Argentina v Belgium 1.05%
Argentina v Netherlands 0.99%
Spain v Uruguay 0.83%
France v Morocco 0.82%
Argentina v England 0.78%
Argentina v Germany 0.77%
Argentina v Brazil 0.76%
Repeat/New Winner
Given the numbers above, and given that only 8 countries have ever won the World Cup (Brazil (5), Germany/West Germany (4), Italy (4), Argentina (3), France (2), Uruguay (2), Spain (1), England (1)), the simulation suggests:
Repeat Winner: 53.29%
New Winner: 46.71%
Obviously Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United States (surprisingly, probably because they're playing at home) and Croatia have the biggest chances to be that new winner, and Morocco are the most likely to break the Europe/South America stranglehold. In terms of dark horses, you have to look at Norway whose chances in the simulation are limited due to their FIFA ranking, with their recent rise (43rd to 29th place since last year) probably set to continue, or will it?
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