2026 World Cup Qualifying Inter-confederation Playoffs - 10000 Simulations

Following today's draw, here's the result of the simulation run.

NOTE: the "SimWin" represents the percentage of the 10000 simulation runs that the team won the match. The "win %" represents what percentage of the time the team won when it reached the final.

Pathway 1

Semi Final

                      SimWin
Jamaica               77.78%
New Caledonia         22.22%

Final

                      SimWin   Win %
Democratic Rep Congo  59.45%
Jamaica               36.00%   46.33%
New Caledonia          4.55%   20.41%

Pathway 2

Semi Final

                      SimWin
Bolivia               67.90%
Surinam               32.10%

Final

                      SimWin   Win %
Iraq                  63.26%
Bolivia               28.48%  41.94%
Surinam                8.26%  25.74%