________________
Next update: June 24th, 2011.
Only Romania and Estonia can move to a different pot. Albania, although scheduled to play Argentina, are already locked in pot 4 (win or lose).
Romania could still climb to pot 3 with a win against Paraguay tomorrow.
Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 4 with two wins against Chile and Uruguay.
Not very likely to see either happening though.
Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.
Switzerland will be 1 point behind Slovakia (last team in pot 2), while Bulgaria will be 4 points behind Hungary (last team in pot 3).
Montenegro missed a huge opportunity. They could have been in the first pot with a win against Bulgaria, but managed only a draw.
Rank - Team - Points
1 Spain 1588 2 Netherlands 1542 3 Germany 1305 4 England 1146 5 Portugal 1076 6 Italy 1059 7 Croatia 1033 8 Norway 972 9 Greece 959 -------------------------------- 10 France 920 11 Montenegro 915 12 Russia 914 13 Sweden 884 14 Denmark 857 15 Slovenia 833 16 Turkey 820 17 Serbia 797 18 Slovakia 779 -------------------------------- 19 Switzerland 778 20 Israel 771 21 Republic of Ireland 752 22 Belgium 691 23 Czech Republic 670 24 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 25 Belarus 636 26 Ukraine 620 27 Hungary 603 -------------------------------- 28 Bulgaria 599 29 Romania 594 30 Albania 558 31 Georgia 530 32 Lithuania 526 33 Scotland 513 34 Northern Ireland 498 35 Austria 479 36 Poland 474 -------------------------------- 37 Armenia 462 38 Estonia 437 39 Finland 419 40 Cyprus 398 41 Latvia 388 42 Moldova 383 43 FYR Macedonia 338 44 Azerbaijan 282 45 Faroe Islands 273 -------------------------------- 45 Wales 273 47 Liechtenstein 253 48 Iceland 244 49 Kazakhstan 231 50 Luxembourg 213 51 Malta 83 52 Andorra 0 52 San Marino 0
Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Georgia, Lithuania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Estonia, Finland, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino
So this means that Wales are almost certainly in the bottom pot then (with no games to play until the World Cup rankings are decided?)
ReplyDeleteYes, they will certainly be in the bottom pot.
ReplyDelete"Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 4, not 3"
ReplyDelete'Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 3 with two wins against Chile and Uruguay.' That's pot 4, not 3. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks, fixed now.
ReplyDeleteOops, that what you Anon. said.. Sorry. :)
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.goal.com/en-us/news/67/world-cup/2011/06/06/2520394/uefa-announces-qualifying-pots-for-2014-world-cup
Is this mean seedings are already defined?
So if Romania beat Paraguay, Hungary goes down, right? Hopefully it won't happen.
ReplyDeleteI saw the Montenegro-Bulgaria game. I guess we Hungarians can say thanks to Montenegro for not letting the Bulgarians win this one. They would have gone up, too, no?
@Anonymous
ReplyDeleteHere's my answer regarding Goal.com.
Only Estonia and Romania can still move to a higher pot, the other teams are locked.
@Dönci
Yes, you really should say thanks :) Bulgaria would have climbed in the third pot with a win against Montenegro.
This article is a fake, the pots are not official yet, as they will be based on the July FIFA ranking. And the announcement will be done by FIFA, not UEFA, since the World Cup is organized by FIFA.
ReplyDeleteI was sure too it was fake, but as far as I know goal.com is serious site.
ReplyDeleteThis seems to sum Wales' luck up perfectly. A late surge by the Faroes to shoot up hundreds of points in a month to take our (Wales') place.
ReplyDeleteHowever much I look at it I don't want it to be true.
BTW: Walesonline used your site for an article here (uncredited of course!): http://www.walesonline.co.uk/footballnation/football-in-wales/2011/06/08/wales-face-doomsday-scenario-as-world-cup-draw-looms-91466-28845884/
@mirkobolesan
ReplyDeleteI'm not surprised. British papers do this all the time and when I write them about this, they don't answer.
pot for armenia wtf?? so lithunia lose to faroes but stay in pot 4 while armenia drop to pot 5 for losing to russia away??
ReplyDeleteCan you please post the July rankings without friendlies?
ReplyDeleteI guess In UEFA at least the first 20 teams could be in pot 1 without friendlies...
@lev
ReplyDeleteThat's how the system works.
@Amir
I promised it will be a bit later today.
Faroe and Wales have both 273 points and same position 45.
ReplyDeleteWho will be on pot 5 and who on pot 6?
I imagine the possibility of a quite weak group like:
Norway, Montenegro, Belarus, Albania, Faroe, San Marino...
Does Hungary stay in pot 3 if Paraguay-Romania is a draw?
ReplyDelete@Amir
ReplyDeleteHere you go.
July 2011 ranking without friendlies
@Anonymous
As I said, Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.
@Anonymous
ReplyDeleteRomania need to win - any other result means Hungary will be safe in Pot 3.
Lev, away doesn't matter, but still Armenia deserved a higher pot. Edgar, is it possible that Armenia would be in a higher pot if some team will schedule an unsuccesfull friendly. About Goal.com, the news about it was on BBC, CNN and other important news channels ;)
ReplyDeleteYes, it is possible. However, how likely are European teams to play in July?
ReplyDeleteThen shame on BBC, CNN and other important news channels :)
@mirkobolesan
ReplyDeleteI'll say... I wrote to Wales Online and they've included a link to my blog in that article. :)
He he. That draw in Belarus has cost France dear. I won't be laughing if England draw them though. I've watched France dominate England my whole life.
ReplyDeleteIdeal group:
England, Turkey, Hungary, Lithuania, Moldova, San Marino
Hardest group:
England, France, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Cyprus, Wales.
Remember I'm looking at this from an English point of view. Ireland and Scotland will raise their level agaist England, and England have a supreme record against Turkey, best of any nation, have played them 10 times and haven't even conceded a goal while scoring 31 in return. And yes, I rate the Faroe Islands over Moldova. Especially as the Faroe Islands have had a lot of success against other British sides.
'Switzerland will be 1 point behind Slovakia (last team in pot 2), while Bulgaria will be 4 points behind Hungary (last team in pot 4).' That's pot 3. :)
ReplyDeletehi
ReplyDeletethis is sooooo different to how i expected
and NORWAY POT 1!!!!! should be in pot 3!!!
Polish point of view;
ReplyDeleteGrecja, Czarnogóra, Izrael, POLSKA, Wyspy Owcze, San Marino
Norway beat Portugal,Iceland and Cyprus, tied against Denmark and lost to Portugal which is our only loss this year and we also are tied in first in our Euro Qualifying Group. We secured our place in the top pot with a 1-0 win against Lithuania last week
ReplyDeleteNorwegian best group:
ReplyDeleteNorway,Slovenia,Belarus,Lithuania,Faroe Islands,San Marino
Worst:
Norway,France,Czech Republic,Scotland, FYR Macedonia,Iceland
the worst team:
ReplyDeletenorway, slovenia, hungary, albania, faroe & san marino
the best:
spain, france, switzerland, romania, latvia & wales
the biggest coincerdince:
england, france, ireland, scotland, faroe & wales
i think theese 13 'll get through:
ReplyDeletespain holland germany england croatia portugal italy greece france sweden switzerland serbia & russia
almost 10:
denmark slovakia,montenegro turkey ireland slovenia czech rep. belguim norway & romania
edgar
ReplyDeletedo you have an article like this for last year?
Paraguay beat Romania -> Hungary stay in pot 3!
ReplyDeletebare in mind 1 group will only have 5 teams in group 9
ReplyDeletei still think mostly about norway
Paraguay has beaten romania
ReplyDelete(by the way i didn't really mind weather they won or not)
still estonia v uraguay to go remember last time on 25 march estonia won 2-0 it was fluke.
ReplyDeletebest england group:
ReplyDeleteslovenia hungary lithuania faroe & san marino
I'm delighted that they added a link Edgar. You do a lot of hard work on this site, very interesting stuff.
ReplyDeleteSadly it was looking like Wales were to be in the 6th pot for some time. Although I hadn't banked on the Faroes leap frogging us.
ReplyDeleteEdgar, it's my belief that a country like Wales should be organising "winnable" friendlies against teams at their level. And not marquee games such as Croatia, Sweden, Australia etc
And then if our ranking improves, so should the standard of our opposition.
as I said before i'm not welsh. but I agree with Stuart
ReplyDeletei can't belive that no one has commented about Norway apart from me!
Edgar, is it possible that Norway could move to pot 2 in a friendly or something?
Hungary is the 3rd pot :) That is funny. I live in Hungary, I saw the matches against Luxembourg, and San Marino. We played awful :)
ReplyDeleteMy suggestiun is: we need to fix some match against Vatikan, San Marino, Liechtenstein, or Vanautu, Grenada, etc.
And finally we will be the 2nd pot :)
I have a bad dream :)
ReplyDelete1: Netherland
2: Russia
3: Hungary
4: Scotland or Romania
5: Finland
6: Wales
And Hungary will get the 6.th place :)
no -no Hungary wil win FIFA World Cup 2014
ReplyDeleteWill someone explain the Wales/ Faroes disparity? Same points different pot... Don't understand...
ReplyDeleteEdgar explained it in the beginning of the post:
ReplyDelete"Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total."
Faroes have made great ground the past few months.. Great management team headed by Brian Kerr - seem to be a tight hard working team.. a move up to pot 5 would be well deserved..
ReplyDelete@Anonymous
ReplyDeleteI don't understand your question.
@stuart
Yes, that's the proper approach.
@Anonymous
I don't think Norway would agree to play a friendly :)
@Anonymous
Playing against minnows would only hurt your ranking.
edgar which question did u not undestand?
ReplyDeleteHi Edgar
ReplyDeleteTanks for a very interesting blog. I come from the Faroe Islands but study in Denmark. I have informed the Faroese FA and Faroese media about Faroe Islands luck and send a link to your blog.
I tried to make the calculation for the next ranking list before I found your blog. In my calculation Faroe Islands were 3 points behind Wales. I am not a professional in calculation, so I guess and hope your calculation are the right one :)
Jákup Emil
Which date will FIFA announce the next list of FIFA World Ranking?
ReplyDeleteAre there any rules for how fast you can arrange an official friendly match. If there is no rule for that, then Wales could arrange a match against a weak opponent for example from the Caribian really fast. A draw in a friendly would be enough for Wales to past the Faroe Islands in the ranking and end up in pot 5 instead of pot 6.
ReplyDelete30 july is the date when fifa will anounce the next fifa ranking
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html
ReplyDelete29 june is the date
30 july
ReplyDelete@Anonymous
ReplyDeleteI didn't understand this question: "do you have an article like this for last year?"
@Jákup
You're welcome. See here more details regarding the differences between Faroe Islands and Wales.
well an article about the pots for 2012 european cup?
ReplyDeleteYou mean this?
ReplyDeleteEURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (20 November 2009)
A nice mention for your site on the BBC today - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/14143711.stm
ReplyDeleteHaha got to laugh at that article.
ReplyDeleteThe Faroe Islands are lobbying Fifa to include decimal points in their calculations - something which would see them leapfrog Wales into pot five.
Almost like they're being underhanded in trying to have the same criteria for every team...
Thanks - I know about it - John Sinnott sent me the link.
ReplyDeleteIceland POV:
ReplyDeleteNorway, Slovenia, Israel, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands, ICELAND
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteI have a bad dream :)
1: Netherland
2: Russia
3: Hungary
4: Scotland or Romania
5: Finland
6: Wales
And Hungary will get the 6.th place :)
June 14, 2011 1:38 PM
** very close!! now how about some lottery numbers **