Football Rankings: June 2025

Sunday, June 22, 2025

2026 World Cup Qualifying CAF 10000 Simulations

Here's the simulations for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying for CAF.

Group A

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Egypt 94.43% 5.56% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Burkina Faso 5.53% 82.59% 10.57% 1.20% 0.11% 0.00%

Sierra Leone 0.04% 10.21% 54.05% 26.36% 9.22% 0.12%

Guinea-Bissau 0.00% 1.02% 25.13% 44.11% 28.49% 1.25%

Ethiopia 0.00% 0.62% 10.21% 27.91% 59.52% 1.74%

Djibouti 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.42% 2.66% 96.89%

Group B

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Senegal 62.53% 32.61% 4.83% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%

Democratic Rep of Congo 33.77% 50.90% 15.04% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00%

Sudan 3.70% 16.36% 74.98% 4.89% 0.07% 0.00%

Togo 0.00% 0.13% 4.45% 58.70% 25.98% 10.74%

Mauritania 0.00% 0.00% 0.64% 25.11% 45.13% 29.12%

South Sudan 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 10.98% 28.82% 60.14%

Group C

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

South Africa 87.60% 10.39% 1.65% 0.31% 0.05% 0.00%

Nigeria 8.58% 47.06% 28.52% 10.59% 4.09% 1.16%

Benin 2.58% 29.11% 35.10% 18.95% 9.97% 4.29%

Rwanda 0.99% 9.11% 18.81% 33.47% 26.58% 11.04%

Lesotho 0.18% 2.59% 7.57% 17.98% 33.25% 38.43%

Zimbabwe 0.07% 1.74% 8.35% 18.70% 26.06% 45.08%

Group D

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Cameroon 52.50% 41.02% 5.81% 0.67% 0.00% 0.00%

Cape Verde Islands 45.90% 44.69% 8.00% 1.40% 0.01% 0.00%

Angola 0.77% 7.25% 45.99% 40.79% 4.63% 0.57%

Libya 0.83% 6.94% 38.31% 47.01% 6.06% 0.85%

Mauritius 0.00% 0.10% 1.63% 8.12% 68.15% 22.00%

Eswatini 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 2.01% 21.15% 76.58%

Group E

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth

Morocco 99.96% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Tanzania 0.02% 59.79% 24.28% 12.13% 3.78%

Zambia 0.00% 16.45% 32.10% 33.59% 17.86%

Niger 0.00% 15.34% 27.93% 30.89% 25.84%

Congo 0.02% 8.38% 15.69% 23.39% 52.52%

Group F

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Côte d'Ivoire 78.93% 20.78% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Gabon 20.96% 75.89% 3.07% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%

Burundi 0.11% 2.93% 54.21% 31.54% 11.21% 0.00%

Kenya 0.00% 0.30% 30.99% 43.23% 25.15% 0.33%

Gambia 0.00% 0.10% 11.44% 24.98% 61.35% 2.13%

Seychelles 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 2.29% 97.54%

Group G

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Algeria 93.46% 5.80% 0.65% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Mozambique 4.90% 60.09% 21.64% 10.27% 3.10% 0.00%
Uganda 1.27% 20.24% 38.72% 26.40% 13.32% 0.05%
Guinea 0.21% 8.77% 23.33% 37.92% 29.51% 0.26%
Botswana 0.16% 5.10% 15.66% 25.28% 53.71% 0.09%
Somalia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.35% 99.60%

Group H

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Tunisia 90.60% 8.82% 0.57% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Equatorial Guinea 9.10% 75.34% 13.61% 1.73% 0.22% 0.00%
Namibia 0.30% 12.30% 59.70% 21.51% 6.18% 0.01%
Malawi 0.00% 2.26% 16.46% 43.08% 37.38% 0.82%
Liberia 0.00% 1.28% 9.65% 33.57% 55.14% 0.36%
São Tomé and Príncipe 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 1.08% 98.81%

Group I

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Ghana 80.03% 14.99% 4.37% 0.61% 0.00% 0.00%
Mali 10.65% 38.99% 30.76% 18.17% 1.43% 0.00%
Comoros 7.33% 26.66% 32.39% 29.53% 4.09% 0.00%
Madagascar 1.99% 18.95% 30.11% 40.94% 8.00% 0.01%
Central African Republic 0.00% 0.41% 2.37% 10.74% 83.05% 3.43%
Chad 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 3.43% 96.56%
So that would mean that Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Morocco, Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Tunisia and Ghana should qualify for the 2026 World Cup outright, and that the best 4 from Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Gabon, Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea and Mali will qualify for the second round where one of those teams will qualify for the Intercontinental playoffs.

2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF 10000 Simulations

Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round.

Group A

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Panama 69.32% 19.59% 8.38% 2.71%

El Salvador 16.40% 37.24% 29.18% 17.18%

Guatamala 9.83% 28.13% 35.46% 26.58%

Surinam 4.45% 15.04% 26.98% 53.53%

Group B

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Jamaica 50.42% 28.47% 16.15% 4.96%

Curaçao 26.41% 32.43% 29.09% 12.07%

Trinidad and Tobago 20.13% 30.54% 33.09% 16.24%

Bermuda 3.04% 8.56% 21.67% 66.73%

Group C

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Costa Rica 52.04% 26.61% 15.22% 6.13%

Honduras 24.80% 32.08% 27.60% 15.52%

Haiti 18.57% 28.52% 31.85% 21.06%

Nicaragua 4.59% 12.79% 25.33% 57.29%

That should mean that Panama, Jamaica and Costa Rica qualify for the finals, and two of El Salvador, Curaçao and Honduras qualify for the Intercontinental playoffs, but to be honest there's not much to separate the second place teams in each group, and it would maybe only take one big performance for the successful second placed teams.

2026 World Cup Seeding Pots

So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like.

NOTE 1: This ranking doesn't include matches from the 2026 World Cup qualifying groups that are still to be determined, notably the AFC fourth round, and it doesn't include matches from the African Nations Championship for which the fixtures still haven't been released.

NOTE 2: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted (23?) October 2025 ranking. That ranking follows on from predicted (18?) September and 10 July 2025 rankings.

Pos Country Points +/- +/-

1 Argentina 1895.54 0 0.00
2 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92
3 France 1882.31 0 7.16
4 England 1834.25 0 9.85
5 Portugal 1797.98 0 6.86
6 Brazil 1786.60 0 0.00
7 Netherlands 1780.38 0 8.21
8 Belgium 1755.36 0 2.93
9 Germany 1746.95 0 10.09
10 Croatia 1729.07 0 6.43
11 Italy 1727.11 0 9.95
12 Mexico 1710.68 0 0.00
13 Morocco 1708.00 0 0.00
14 United States 1698.80 0 0.00
15 Colombia 1692.10 0 0.00
16 Uruguay 1686.15 0 0.00
17 Switzerland 1679.98 0 13.57
18 Denmark 1665.38 0 12.31
19 Senegal 1651.51 0 0.00
20 Japan 1635.91 0 0.00
21 Iran 1631.48 0 0.00
22 Austria 1622.00 0 9.72
23 Panama 1587.99 3 11.44
24 South Korea 1578.62 0 0.00
25 Australia 1578.57 0 0.00
26 Canada 1578.28 0 0.00
27 Ecuador 1575.33 0 0.00
28 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01
29 Ukraine 1568.89 0 1.63
30 Sweden 1557.55 0 0.46
31 Egypt 1538.01 0 0.00
32 Wales 1535.08 3 10.91
33 Norway 1533.21 -1 -3.99
34 Serbia 1530.36 -1 -2.12
35 Algeria 1524.70 0 0.00
36 Hungary 1519.53 3 15.72
37 Russia 1514.54 0 0.00
38 Costa Rica 1512.95 4 16.22
39 Poland 1505.16 -2 -3.91
40 Côte d'Ivoire 1504.01 0 0.00
41 Czechia 1499.50 0 1.75
42 Nigeria 1499.36 0 0.00
43 Tunisia 1495.63 0 0.00
44 Greece 1491.75 1 6.29
45 Cameroon 1491.35 0 0.00
46 Slovakia 1484.26 0 -0.14
47 Peru 1481.51 0 0.00
48 Mali 1479.84 0 0.00
49 Romania 1478.68 2 11.15
50 Paraguay 1476.31 0 0.00
51 Scotland 1471.91 -3 -8.29
52 Venezuela 1465.02 0 0.00
53 South Africa 1459.86 0 0.00
54 Qatar 1459.85 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1449.12 0 0.00
56 Slovenia 1447.46 -1 -2.99
57 Saudi Arabia 1432.61 0 0.00
58 Chile 1425.99 0 0.00
59 Democratic Republic of Congo 1424.95 0 0.00
60 Iraq 1417.04 0 0.00
61 Jamaica 1408.68 2 17.63
62 Ireland 1398.13 -1 -14.85
63 Burkina Faso 1390.16 0 0.00
64 Jordan 1387.75 0 0.00
65 North Macedonia 1385.97 -3 -9.44
66 United Arab Emirates 1379.86 0 0.00
67 Georgia 1372.90 1 6.95
68 Albania 1370.70 -1 0.34
69 Finland 1366.51 1 6.11
70 Honduras 1360.81 -1 -2.82
71 Cape Verde Islands 1354.55 0 0.00
72 Northern Ireland 1351.53 2 9.67
73 Ghana 1344.50 0 0.00
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1337.13 -2 -16.32
75 Iceland 1332.97 0 0.38
76 Israel 1330.27 0 5.69
77 Montenegro 1321.58 0 -1.20
78 Gabon 1317.66 0 0.00
79 Oman 1312.83 0 0.00
80 El Salvador 1312.35 0 0.49
81 Bolivia 1307.24 0 0.00
82 Guinea 1295.34 0 0.00
83 Angola 1293.88 0 0.00
84 New Zealand 1286.05 0 0.00
85 Zambia 1280.34 0 0.00
86 Syria 1277.79 0 3.64
87 Uganda 1273.53 0 0.00
88 Bahrain 1266.96 0 0.00
89 Equatorial Guinea 1265.88 0 0.00
90 Benin 1259.07 0 0.00
91 Curaçao 1251.46 1 -2.85
91 Mozambique 1251.30 0 0.00
93 China 1249.06 0 0.00
94 Bulgaria 1247.19 -4 -15.88
95 Haiti 1244.87 0 2.18
96 Thailand 1239.87 1 4.51
97 Palestine 1236.41 0 0.00
98 Tanzania 1221.52 0 0.00
99 Tajikistan 1221.40 2 4.77
100 Namibia 1215.11 0 0.00
101 Kosovo 1212.99 -2 -11.04
102 Luxembourg 1211.99 -4 -19.62
103 Trinidad and Tobago 1211.29 0 -1.14
104 Kyrgyzstan 1208.57 0 0.00
105 Guatemala 1203.36 1 4.79
106 Belarus 1201.95 -3 -10.31
107 Comoros 1192.01 0 0.00
108 Lebanon 1190.76 1 5.95
109 Vietnam 1189.45 1 5.88
110 Kenya 1187.22 0 0.00
111 Mauritania 1176.56 0 0.00
112 Armenia 1173.16 -1 -7.73
113 Madagascar 1172.71 0 0.00
114 Sudan 1162.78 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1156.43 7 7.12
116 Indonesia 1154.55 0 0.00
117 Libya 1154.15 0 0.00
118 Kazakhstan 1153.52 -3 -2.30
119 Togo 1152.12 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Zimbabwe 1150.03 0 0.00
122 Gambia 1149.86 0 0.00
123 Sierra Leone 1148.95 0 0.00
124 India 1140.09 1 6.89
125 Guinea-Bissau 1132.92 0 0.00
126 Estonia 1131.70 -2 -4.63
127 Niger 1126.54 0 0.00
128 Congo 1123.11 0 0.00
129 Azerbaijan 1120.98 -2 -9.16
130 Turkmenistan 1115.34 2 8.87
131 Cyprus 1110.08 -1 -3.00
132 Malawi 1107.04 0 0.00
133 Rwanda 1106.47 0 0.00
134 Kuwait 1098.87 0 0.00
135 Latvia 1092.61 0 -4.03
136 Philippines 1090.89 3 9.45
137 Central African Republic 1087.58 0 0.00
138 Faroe Islands 1080.64 0 -1.97
139 Nicaragua 1078.33 -3 -15.58
140 Dominican Republic 1076.78 0 0.00
141 Hong Kong 1073.07 3 10.95
142 Botswana 1071.59 0 0.00
143 Lithuania 1065.98 0 -1.53
144 Burundi 1059.72 0 0.00
145 Surinam 1058.58 -4 -16.73
146 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
147 Liberia 1048.14 0 0.00
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 Fiji 1043.44 0 0.00
150 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1035.92 0 0.00
153 Ethiopia 1030.64 0 0.00
154 Puerto Rico 1020.55 0 0.00
155 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
156 Afghanistan 1017.39 0 -0.65
157 Lesotho 1014.41 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1000.56 0 -7.23
159 Eswatini 998.02 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Myanmar 991.38 1 0.65
163 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
164 Singapore 986.35 -4 -10.95
165 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00
166 Grenada 979.91 0 0.00
167 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 967.19 0 0.00
169 Bermuda 962.80 -2 -13.64
170 Malta 956.89 0 -7.25
171 South Sudan 953.77 0 0.00
172 Maldives 942.21 0 -9.45
173 Taiwan 941.89 0 -8.87
174 Andorra 935.69 0 -5.66
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
178 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
179 Mauritius 902.98 0 0.00
180 Nepal 902.42 -2 -7.12
180 Chad 902.16 0 0.00
182 Dominica 901.33 0 0.00
183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
184 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
185 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
186 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
187 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
188 Bangladesh 874.32 -3 -6.89
189 Laos 870.70 -1 -5.88
190 Bhutan 867.86 -1 -8.70
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
195 Djibouti 848.01 0 0.00
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.22 0 0.00
197 Sri Lanka 836.56 0 -4.51
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.50 -1 -4.77
200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
201 Gibraltar 822.51 -1 -5.00
202 Somalia 818.84 0 0.00
203 Pakistan 809.10 0 -3.64
204 Bahamas 807.40 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.22 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 800.03 0 -2.10
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 766.83 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 759.54 0 0.00
211 San Marino 729.01 0 -1.35

From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:

1) United States (certain, hosts)

2) Mexico (certain, hosts)

3) Canada (certain, hosts)

4) Argentina (CONMEBOL #1)

5) Spain (UEFA Group E Winner)

6) France (UEFA Group D Winner)

7) England (UEFA Group K Winner)

8) Portugal (UEFA Group F Winner)

9) Brazil (CONMEBOL #2)

10) Netherlands (UEFA Group G Winner)

11) Belgium (UEFA Group J Winner)

12) Germany (UEFA Group A Winner)

Second seeds would then be:

13) Croatia (UEFA Group L Winner)

14) Morocco (CAF Group E Winner)

15) Colombia (CONMEBOL #6)

16) Uruguay (CONMEBOL #3)

17) Switzerland (UEFA Group B Winner)

18) Denmark (UEFA Group C Winner)

19) Senegal (CAF Group B Winner)

20) Japan (AFC Group C Winner)

21) Iran (AFC Group A Winner)

22) Austria (UEFA Group H Winner)

23) Panama (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)

24) South Korea (AFC Group B Winner)

Third seeds would then be:

25) Australia (AFC Group C Runner Up)

26) Ecuador (CONMEBOL #4)

27) Egypt (CAF Group A Winner)

28) Norway (UEFA Group I Winner)

29) Algeria (CAF Group G Winner)

30) Costa Rica (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)

31) Côte d'Ivoire (CAF Group F Winner)

32) Tunisia (CAF Group H Winner)

33) Cameroon (CAF Group D Winner)

34) Paraguay (CONMEBOL #5)

35) South Africa (CAF Group C Winner)

36) Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iraq/United Arab Emirates/Oman/Indonesia (highest AFC Fourth Round Winner)

Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):

- Ghana (CAF Group I Winner)

- Jordan (AFC Group B Runner Up)

- New Zealand (Oceania Winner)

- Uzbekistan (AFC Group A Runner Up)

- 4 x UEFA Playoff Winners (assuming the highest ranked teams of the November 2025 ranking: Italy? Türkiye? Ukraine? Sweden? With Wales, Serbia, Hungary and Poland being the next highest ranked teams)

- 1 x CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner (assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, one from: Jamaica? Honduras? El Salvador? Curaçao? Haiti?)

- 1 x AFC qualifier (again assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, from: Saudi Arabia? Iraq? United Arab Emirates? Oman? Indonesia?)

- 2 x Intercontinental Playoff Winners

With the crucial 3-0 for Norway against Italy, it looks like Italy is up against it to be one of the top seeds because they'll be a fourth seed if they don't finish top of their group, and if they overturn the group they will probably only be a second seed. It looks like Croatia and Morocco will be hoping for slip ups from Belgium and Germany but it looks like both have a comfortable lead.

2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 22 June 2025)

Qualifying Groups

Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying. A few things have changed with respect to the previous post in April 2025 following the March matches.

For Groups A-F obviously very little has changed because while points have been exchanged with the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations finals and friendlies, matches in those groups haven't yet been played.

For Groups G-L there's been some significant changes however, most notably in Groups G and I. In Group G the Netherlands will be feeling good about their chances after they saw their biggest rivals lose away to Finland, and in Group I Norway's 3-0 win at home to Italy have reversed the pre-Group predictions with Norway now being favorite to win the group meaning Italy would most likely be destined for the playoffs yet again, having lost the last two times they were in that predicament in 2022 and 2018. In Group H Austria's two wins has increased their chances to win the group, in Groups J, K and L Belgium, England and most significantly Croatia's chances have increased to win the group and qualify directly.

NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.

Group A

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Germany 68.75% 22.28% 6.95% 2.02% 31.25% 82.76% 17.24%

Slovakia 21.65% 42.62% 23.68% 12.05% 42.62% 33.17% 66.83%

Luxembourg 5.65% 19.22% 30.15% 44.98% 19.22% 7.30% 92.70%

Northern Ireland 3.95% 15.88% 39.22% 40.95% 88.57% 13.71% 86.29%

Group B

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Switzerland 48.83% 30.16% 16.51% 4.50% 30.16% 60.57% 39.43%

Sweden 30.55% 33.36% 26.10% 9.99% 68.88% 50.57% 49.43%

Slovenia 17.76% 28.29% 36.97% 16.98% 28.29% 24.00% 76.00%

Kosovo 2.86% 8.19% 20.42% 68.53% 8.19% 3.47% 96.53%

Group C

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Denmark 50.81% 28.60% 16.40% 4.19% 29.38% 61.85% 38.15%

Greece 25.08% 32.46% 31.20% 11.26% 32.46% 33.72% 66.28%

Scotland 22.04% 31.94% 33.44% 12.58% 33.35% 30.19% 69.81%

Belarus 2.07% 7.00% 18.96% 71.97% 7.00% 2.68% 97.32%

Group D

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

France 84.40% 13.37% 2.07% 0.16% 15.60% 93.83% 6.17%

Ukraine 12.17% 56.12% 25.09% 6.62% 56.12% 30.61% 69.39%

Iceland 3.18% 24.27% 49.80% 22.75% 24.27% 6.50% 93.50%

Azerbaijan 0.25% 6.24% 23.04% 70.47% 6.24% 0.56% 99.44%

Group E

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Spain 81.04% 14.94% 3.30% 0.72% 18.96% 91.98% 8.02%

Türkiye 13.79% 48.21% 26.15% 11.85% 48.21% 30.05% 69.95%

Georgia 3.36% 22.22% 38.15% 36.27% 22.22% 6.80% 93.20%

Bulgaria 1.81% 14.63% 32.40% 51.16% 14.63% 3.47% 96.53%

Group F

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Portugal 71.87% 20.07% 6.73% 1.33% 28.13% 85.56% 14.44%

Hungary 18.38% 43.76% 27.11% 10.75% 44.21% 32.36% 67.64%

Ireland 8.11% 26.51% 41.58% 23.80% 26.51% 12.83% 87.17%

Armenia 1.64% 9.66% 24.58% 64.12% 9.66% 2.21% 97.79%

Group G

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Netherlands 89.67% 8.66% 1.63% 0.04% 0.00% 8.71% 94.15% 5.85%

Poland 8.20% 55.88% 34.06% 1.81% 0.05% 56.00% 25.15% 74.85%

Finland 2.12% 34.86% 59.64% 3.35% 0.03% 34.86% 6.45% 93.55%

Lithuania 0.01% 0.56% 4.21% 70.32% 24.90% 0.56% 0.03% 99.97%

Malta 0.00% 0.04% 0.46% 24.48% 75.02% 0.04% 0.01% 99.99%

Group H

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Austria 72.06% 19.50% 7.74% 0.70% 0.00% 19.50% 78.60% 21.40%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 20.74% 45.20% 31.50% 2.56% 0.00% 45.20% 25.48% 74.52%

Romania 6.99% 33.82% 53.77% 5.41% 0.01% 92.91% 28.29% 71.71%

Cyprus 0.21% 1.48% 6.98% 89.36% 1.97% 1.48% 0.26% 99.74%

San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 1.97% 98.02% 26.69% 0.02% 99.98%

Group I

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Norway 68.33% 30.14% 1.53% 0.00% 0.00% 31.67% 75.33% 24.67%

Italy 30.35% 59.77% 9.32% 0.55% 0.01% 60.06% 61.23% 38.77%

Israel 1.31% 9.91% 82.03% 6.09% 0.66% 10.18% 2.36% 97.64%

Moldova 0.01% 0.04% 2.65% 20.74% 76.56% 66.37% 1.25% 98.75%

Estonia 0.00% 0.14% 4.47% 72.62% 22.77% 0.14% 0.02% 99.98%

Group J

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Belgium 78.47% 15.87% 5.18% 0.48% 0.00% 16.11% 86.64% 13.36%

Wales 13.60% 48.01% 35.46% 2.93% 0.00% 86.40% 38.85% 61.15%

North Macedonia 7.75% 34.68% 53.00% 4.56% 0.01% 91.40% 18.76% 81.24%

Kazakhstan 0.18% 1.44% 6.35% 88.98% 3.05% 1.44% 0.24% 99.76%

Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 3.05% 96.94% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Group K

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

England 91.24% 8.35% 0.41% 0.00% 0.00% 8.76% 95.94% 4.06%

Serbia 8.43% 68.48% 18.81% 4.18% 0.10% 68.80% 28.85% 71.15%

Albania 0.30% 19.46% 63.32% 16.20% 0.72% 19.46% 3.40% 96.60%

Latvia 0.03% 3.68% 16.91% 72.81% 6.57% 3.68% 0.15% 99.85%

Andorra 0.00% 0.03% 0.55% 6.81% 92.61% 0.03% 0.00% 100.00%

Group L

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Croatia 82.14% 14.66% 3.03% 0.17% 0.00% 14.77% 88.42% 11.58%

Czechia 15.11% 69.58% 14.63% 0.68% 0.00% 84.89% 35.05% 64.95%

Montenegro 2.68% 15.03% 71.76% 10.49% 0.04% 15.03% 4.22% 95.78%

Faroe Islands 0.07% 0.73% 10.52% 83.86% 4.82% 0.73% 0.10% 99.90%

Gibraltar 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 4.80% 95.14% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Playoffs

Likelihood

The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round.

FRnk Grp Playoff
Romania 45 H 92.91%
North Macedonia 67 J 91.40%
Northern Ireland 71 A 88.57%

Wales 29 J 86.40%

Czechia 39 L 84.89%

Sweden 28 B 68.88%

Serbia 31 K 68.80%

Moldova 154 I 66.37%

Italy 9 I 60.06%

Ukraine 25 D 56.12%

Poland 34 G 56.00%

Türkiye 27 E 48.21%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 45.20%

Hungary 37 F 44.21%

Slovakia 46 A 42.62%

Finland 69 G 34.86%

Scotland 44 C 33.35%

Greece 40 C 32.46%

Norway 38 I 31.67%

Germany 10 A 31.25%

Switzerland 20 B 30.16%

Denmark 21 C 29.38%

Slovenia 51 B 28.29%

Portugal 7 F 28.13%

San Marino 210 H 26.69%

Ireland 60 F 26.51%

Iceland 74 D 24.27%

Georgia 68 E 22.22%

Austria 22 H 19.50%

Albania 66 K 19.46%

Luxembourg 91 A 19.22%

Spain 2 E 18.96%

Belgium 8 J 16.11%

France 3 D 15.60%

Montenegro 73 L 15.03%

Croatia 11 L 14.77%

Bulgaria 85 E 14.63%

Israel 78 I 10.18%

Armenia 102 F 9.66%

England 4 K 8.76%

Netherlands 6 G 8.71%

Kosovo 97 B 8.19%

Belarus 98 C 7.00%

Azerbaijan 119 D 6.24%

Latvia 138 K 3.68%

Cyprus 129 H 1.48%

Kazakhstan 113 J 1.44%

Faroe Islands 141 L 0.73%

Lithuania 143 G 0.56%

Estonia 121 I 0.14%

Malta 169 G 0.04%

Andorra 173 K 0.03%

Gibraltar 196 L 0.00%

Liechtenstein 205 J 0.00%

Results

The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Los-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.

NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                       FRnk Grp  Win-Fin  Lose-Fi  Win-Sem  Los-Sem  Playoff
France                    3   D   60.45%   21.35%   81.79%   18.21%   15.60%
Spain                     2   E   57.70%   21.36%   79.06%   20.94%   18.96%
England                   4   K   53.65%   24.89%   78.54%   21.46%    8.76%
Netherlands               6   G   51.44%   23.88%   75.32%   24.68%    8.71%
Italy                     9   I   51.42%   26.56%   77.97%   22.03%   60.06%
Belgium                   8   J   50.71%   25.51%   76.23%   23.77%   16.11%
Portugal                  7   F   48.67%   25.17%   73.84%   26.16%   28.13%
Germany                  10   A   44.83%   26.56%   71.39%   28.61%   31.25%
Croatia                  11   L   42.52%   29.99%   72.51%   27.49%   14.77%
Switzerland              20   B   38.93%   30.24%   69.16%   30.84%   30.16%
Denmark                  21   C   37.58%   31.35%   68.92%   31.08%   29.38%
Türkiye                  27   E   33.73%   30.39%   64.12%   35.88%   48.21%
Austria                  22   H   33.54%   31.90%   65.44%   34.56%   19.50%
Ukraine                  25   D   32.86%   33.02%   65.88%   34.12%   56.12%
Hungary                  37   F   31.62%   31.80%   63.42%   36.58%   44.21%
Poland                   34   G   30.27%   30.82%   61.09%   38.91%   56.00%
Serbia                   31   K   29.68%   31.99%   61.67%   38.33%   68.80%
Wales                    29   J   29.22%   27.63%   56.85%   43.15%   86.40%
Sweden                   28   B   29.07%   26.28%   55.34%   44.66%   68.88%
Slovakia                 46   A   27.03%   27.43%   54.46%   45.54%   42.62%
Greece                   40   C   26.62%   29.05%   55.67%   44.33%   32.46%
Malta                   169   G   25.00%   25.00%   50.00%   50.00%    0.04%
Scotland                 44   C   24.44%   29.24%   53.67%   46.33%   33.35%
Czechia                  39   L   23.49%   27.71%   51.20%   48.80%   84.89%
Romania                  45   H   22.93%   25.58%   48.51%   51.49%   92.91%
Norway                   38   I   22.10%   26.87%   48.97%   51.03%   31.67%
Slovenia                 51   B   22.06%   26.16%   48.21%   51.79%   28.29%
Ireland                  60   F   17.80%   24.78%   42.59%   57.41%   26.51%
Albania                  66   K   15.93%   23.69%   39.62%   60.38%   19.46%
Georgia                  68   E   15.48%   21.96%   37.44%   62.56%   22.22%
Estonia                 121   I   14.29%   14.29%   28.57%   71.43%    0.14%
Iceland                  74   D   13.68%   22.83%   36.51%   63.49%   24.27%
Finland                  69   G   12.42%   21.86%   34.28%   65.72%   34.86%
North Macedonia          67   J   12.05%   21.16%   33.21%   66.79%   91.40%
Bulgaria                 85   E   11.35%   18.66%   30.01%   69.99%   14.63%
Northern Ireland         71   A   11.02%   20.01%   31.03%   68.97%   88.57%
Bosnia and Herzegovina   70   H   10.49%   20.77%   31.26%   68.74%   45.20%
Israel                   78   I   10.31%   20.63%   30.94%   69.06%   10.18%
Montenegro               73   L   10.25%   20.76%   31.00%   69.00%   15.03%
Belarus                  98   C    8.71%   18.29%   27.00%   73.00%    7.00%
Luxembourg               91   A    8.58%   19.15%   27.73%   72.27%   19.22%
Kosovo                   97   B    7.45%   18.93%   26.37%   73.63%    8.19%
Armenia                 102   F    5.90%   19.67%   25.57%   74.43%    9.66%
Azerbaijan              119   D    4.97%   16.19%   21.15%   78.85%    6.24%
Kazakhstan              113   J    4.17%   16.67%   20.83%   79.17%    1.44%
Faroe Islands           141   L    4.11%   15.07%   19.18%   80.82%    0.73%
Lithuania               143   G    3.57%   21.43%   25.00%   75.00%    0.56%
Cyprus                  129   H    3.38%   14.19%   17.57%   82.43%    1.48%
Latvia                  138   K    3.26%   11.96%   15.22%   84.78%    3.68%
Moldova                 154   I    1.87%    9.94%   11.81%   88.19%   66.37%
San Marino              210   H    0.07%    2.21%    2.29%   97.71%   26.69%
Andorra                 173   K    0.00%   33.33%   33.33%   66.67%    0.03%
Gibraltar               196   L      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Liechtenstein           205   J      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Not sure what happened to Malta in this simulation run, out of 4 times that they qualified, they won the final once and lost the final once, which is very surprising...
Overall Qualifying
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify.
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                      FRnk Grp     Qual  NotQual
England                  4   K   95.94%    4.06%
Netherlands              6   G   94.15%    5.85%
France                   3   D   93.83%    6.17%
Spain                    2   E   91.98%    8.02%
Croatia                 11   L   88.42%   11.58%
Belgium                  8   J   86.64%   13.36%
Portugal                 7   F   85.56%   14.44%
Germany                 10   A   82.76%   17.24%
Austria                 22   H   78.60%   21.40%
Norway                  38   I   75.33%   24.67%
Denmark                 21   C   61.85%   38.15%
Italy                    9   I   61.23%   38.77%
Switzerland             20   B   60.57%   39.43%
Sweden                  28   B   50.57%   49.43%
Wales                   29   J   38.85%   61.15%
Czechia                 39   L   35.05%   64.95%
Greece                  40   C   33.72%   66.28%
Slovakia                46   A   33.17%   66.83%
Hungary                 37   F   32.36%   67.64%
Ukraine                 25   D   30.61%   69.39%
Scotland                44   C   30.19%   69.81%
Türkiye                 27   E   30.05%   69.95%
Serbia                  31   K   28.85%   71.15%
Romania                 45   H   28.29%   71.71%
Bosnia and Herzegovina  70   H   25.48%   74.52%
Poland                  34   G   25.15%   74.85%
Slovenia                51   B   24.00%   76.00%
North Macedonia         67   J   18.76%   81.24%
Northern Ireland        71   A   13.71%   86.29%
Ireland                 60   F   12.83%   87.17%
Luxembourg              91   A    7.30%   92.70%
Georgia                 68   E    6.80%   93.20%
Iceland                 74   D    6.50%   93.50%
Finland                 69   G    6.45%   93.55%
Montenegro              73   L    4.22%   95.78%
Bulgaria                85   E    3.47%   96.53%
Kosovo                  97   B    3.47%   96.53%
Albania                 66   K    3.40%   96.60%
Belarus                 98   C    2.68%   97.32%
Israel                  78   I    2.36%   97.64%
Armenia                102   F    2.21%   97.79%
Moldova                154   I    1.25%   98.75%
Azerbaijan             119   D    0.56%   99.44%
Cyprus                 129   H    0.26%   99.74%
Kazakhstan             113   J    0.24%   99.76%
Latvia                 138   K    0.15%   99.85%
Faroe Islands          141   L    0.10%   99.90%
Lithuania              143   G    0.03%   99.97%
Estonia                121   I    0.02%   99.98%
San Marino             210   H    0.02%   99.98%
Malta                  169   G    0.01%   99.99%
Andorra                173   K    0.00%  100.00%
Gibraltar              196   L    0.00%  100.00%
Liechtenstein          205   J    0.00%  100.00%