Friday, September 28, 2012

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 October.

Lost of movement in the top 10 - only Spain and Germany keep their places. Colombia and Greece replace Croatia and Denmark in the top 10. England slip to 5th. Portugal up to 3rd.

Colombia return to the top 10 after 10 years - they were 9th in July 2002 and they will be 9th in October.

Central African Republic break into the top 50 for the first time ever. They were 202nd in August 2010.

Montserrat leave the bottom of the ranking in style, after defeating British Virgin Islands 7 - 0. They will climb at least 25 places.

The Irish press and FIFA ranking

In my August 2012 preview, posted on 20 July 2012, there was a list of games removed from FIFA's list of "A" matches. Among them, a 0 - 0 draw between Hungary and the Republic of Ireland, played on 4 June 2012.

Last week I received an e-mail from Irish reader who wanted to know about the impact this removal would have on Ireland's FIFA ranking. Apparently, a reporter from the Irish Daily Star discovered two months later that this friendly had disappeared from

Enjoy these fine pieces of journalism, well documented of course, about the FIFA ranking and the seeding for the FIFA World Cup final tournament.

Friday, September 21, 2012

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (21 September 2012)

Next update: October 2012.

Updated to include missing 11 September matches. Thanks Ed!

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (21 September 2012)

Next update: October 2012

Includes matches up to and including 20 September 2012.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

2015 UEFA European Under-21 Championship qualifying seeding (21 September 2012)

Next update: 19 October 2012.

As soon as the 2013 play-offs conclude we'll have the final coefficients for the 2015 qualifying round draw. The 2013 qualifying round draw took place on 3 February 2011, so I think the draw for the 2015 preliminaries will take place in late January / early February 2013.

Going by the 2013 procedure, there will be 4 pots of 10 teams and one of 12 teams.

2016 UEFA European Under-21 Championship - possible format

Yes, 2016, not 2015. The 2015 edition will be hosted by the Czech Republic (more on this in my next post).

The 2015 edition will be the last U21 tournament before the competition reverts to even numbered years the following summer.

UEFA moved the tournament to odd years starting from 2007 "to allow it to step out of the shadow of the UEFA European Football Championship and the FIFA World Cup.". It seems being in the shadow is just fine :)

2013 UEFA Under-21 final draw seeding (21 September 2012)

The final draw will take place on 28 November.

These are the play-off matches to be played on 12 and 16 October.

Spain (holders) v Denmark
Italy v Sweden
Czech Republic v Russia
Slovakia v Netherlands
Germany v Switzerland
England v Serbia
France v Norway

I'm not Dutch, really!

I'm not Dutch, really!

I've seen two articles in the Norwegian and Icelandic press mentioning the "the experts from in the Netherlands" and "Dutch football statistics site".

I'm pleased they did mention the source of their information (unlike the Scottish Daily Record - they keep forgetting), but there are two problems.

Friday, September 14, 2012

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 preview (II)

Next update: 28 September 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 October.

FIFA have removed the deadline information - it used to be on Thursday before the release of the rankings. I will still use it for this month, then I will most likely move the deadline for the calculation to Saturday.

15 matches left - only one of them involving team in the top 100: Brazil vs. Argentina on 19 September. Couple of friendlies and continental qualifiers. 15 teams involved in these matches and this an overview of minimum/maximum points and highest/lowest ranking possible for them:

Friday, September 7, 2012

2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (7 September 2012)

An update of the February 2012 post.

The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).

Points are awarded in this fashion:

7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage

Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.

Victor Piturca playing the blame game

Romania returned in September to their worst ever ranking - 57th.

This is what Victor Piturca, the national team manager, had to say about it:

"We're below Estonia because of the matches played two years ago, when I wasn't in charge. Lately, the national team gained points and it will keep on climbing. Since I've returned as manager, we have only lost to Belgium and Slovenia. The numbers prove this."

That's wrong (and I'm not a fan of Razvan Lucescu - the previous manager).

Confusion in Indian football (II)

Different manager, same lack of knowledge about the rankings.

India's chief football coach Wim Koevarmans said that India must play on dates designated by world body FIFA for friendlies if they want to go up in international rankings.

That's sort of an urban myth. Plenty of teams play friendlies outside of the designated FIFA dates and their matches still count for the ranking calculation.

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 probable ranking

Next update: Sometime next week.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results we could see Barbados jump 40 or more spots, Northern Ireland and Cyprus 30 or more, Bulgaria and Israel 20 or more, while Luxembourg could drop more than 40 places, with Iceland dropping around 26 places.

In the top 50, Scotland, Norway and Panama could jump 10 or more places, while Hungary, Ukraine and Algeria could do the opposite.

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 preview

Next update: Sometime next week.

Includes matches up to 6 September.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 October.

England's 3rd place adventure will most likely end - even if they win both their matches (against Moldova and Ukraine). Uruguay, Argentina and Portugal could all reach a higher total, dropping England to a probable 6th place.

Most points dropped (best case scenario):

-39 - Congo
-38 - Thailand
-35 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
-31 - Italy
-30 - Qatar
-30 - St. Kitts and Nevis
-25 - Fiji
-24 - Chad
-21 - Madagascar
-18 - Korea DPR

September 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference 

South Sudan 197 128 69
Syria 148 86 62
Mauritania 204 164 40
Finland 96 58 38
Cyprus 135 98 37
Bulgaria 89 53 36
Moldova 141 107 34
Cuba 147 114 33
Fiji 155 122 33
Indonesia 168 138 30