So following the draw made yesterday, here's a simulation for how the fourth and fifth round is expected to pan out following a 10000 iteration simulation.
Fourth Round
These numbers show the qualifying chances (first place) via this round, and the chances of qualifying for the fifth round (second place), and of not qualifying for at least the Intercontinental qualifiers (third place).
Group A
First Second Third
Qatar 48.11% 30.80% 21.09%
United Arab Emirates 28.51% 35.84% 35.65%
Oman 23.38% 33.36% 43.26%
Group B
First Second Third
Saudi Arabia 46.41% 36.78% 16.81%
Iraq 41.43% 38.31% 20.26%
Indonesia 12.16% 24.91% 62.93%
Fifth Round
These numbers show the times that countries qualified for the Intercontinental qualifiers if the country didn't qualify automatically in the simulation, and the percentage that it would win/lose the playoff to qualify.
Winner Loser Win % Loss %
Qatar 18.17% 12.63% 58.99% 41.01%
Saudi Arabia 19.25% 17.53% 52.34% 47.66%
Iraq 20.02% 18.29% 52.26% 47.74%
United Arab Emirates 18.90% 16.94% 52.73% 47.27%
Oman 15.91% 17.45% 47.69% 52.31%
Indonesia 7.75% 17.16% 31.11% 68.89%
At Least Intercontinental Qualifiers
This shows the percentage chance in the simulation of the country reaching at least the Intercontinental qualifiers.
ICQ %
Saudi Arabia 83.19%
Iraq 79.74%
Qatar 78.91%
United Arab Emirates 64.35%
Oman 56.74%
Indonesia 37.07%
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