Saturday, May 31, 2025

FIFA Ranking - July 2025 - Expected Ranking

Hi everyone, with a lot of tournament activity to happen in the coming days and weeks here's a prediction for how things might end up in terms of the 10 July FIFA ranking. The biggest shift is likely to happen in the Americas where the United States, Mexico, Canada and Panama are expected to gain most points and positions. In Europe Spain are expected to gain the most points, but they're still relatively far behind Argentina. In fact, most of the top 20 are expected to gain points this time around.

  1   Argentina                        1898.12     0    11.96
  2   Spain                            1869.99     0    15.36
  3   France                           1862.95     0    10.24
  4   England                          1823.36     0     4.16
  5   Brazil                           1789.53     0    13.49
  6   Netherlands                      1758.12     0     5.68
  7   Portugal                         1755.53     0     5.46
  8   Belgium                          1748.62     0    12.86
  9   Italy                            1727.42     0     9.11
 10   Germany                          1717.78     0     0.79
 11   Croatia                          1707.51     0     8.85
 12   United States                    1703.73     4    54.91
 13   Morocco                          1698.76    -1     4.52
 14   Mexico                           1696.92     3    49.97
 15   Uruguay                          1695.23    -2    15.74
 16   Colombia                         1679.20    -3     0.16
 17   Japan                            1665.71    -2    13.07
 18   Iran                             1648.88     0    11.49
 19   Senegal                          1630.06     0    -0.26
 20   Switzerland                      1625.23     0     0.48
 21   Denmark                          1621.29     0     3.76
 22   Austria                          1591.24     0    11.03
 23   South Korea                      1587.08     0    12.15
 24   Canada                           1576.04     6    44.46
 25   Ecuador                          1570.68    -1     2.73
 26   Ukraine                          1562.10    -1     2.29
 27   Panama                           1558.36     6    40.71
 28   Australia                        1554.14    -2    -0.41
 29   Türkiye                          1543.33    -2    -8.14
 30   Sweden                           1535.47    -2    -0.57
 30   Serbia                           1535.42     1    11.51
 32   Wales                            1529.20    -3    -6.37
 33   Poland                           1527.40     1    10.04
 34   Egypt                            1518.79     0     0.00
 35   Russia                           1518.55     0     2.28
 36   Algeria                          1508.75     0     1.59
 37   Hungary                          1505.74     0     2.39
 38   Norway                           1494.80     0    -2.37
 39   Greece                           1492.90     1     3.08
 40   Czechia                          1492.40    -1     0.97
 41   Côte d'Ivoire                    1490.81     0     3.55
 42   Nigeria                          1485.50     1     4.16
 43   Scotland                         1484.66     1     4.36
 44   Slovakia                         1481.52     2     3.74
 45   Tunisia                          1478.56     4     4.46
 46   Venezuela                        1477.54     1     0.70
 47   Romania                          1474.38    -2    -4.84
 48   Cameroon                         1472.05     2     6.33
 49   Costa Rica                       1469.80     5    10.67
 50   Slovenia                         1469.76     1     7.10
 51   Chile                            1466.62     1     4.71
 52   Peru                             1464.97   -10   -18.50
 53   Mali                             1464.72     0     4.49
 54   Paraguay                         1462.35    -6   -13.59
 55   South Africa                     1455.30     1    10.29
 56   Qatar                            1448.25    -1    -8.33
 56   Uzbekistan                       1448.22     1    11.20
 58   Saudi Arabia                     1432.37     0    13.41
 59   Ireland                          1412.80     1     0.57
 60   Democratic Republic of Congo     1404.96     1    -1.63
 61   Iraq                             1404.54    -2    -8.85
 62   Jordan                           1400.25     0    11.09
 63   Jamaica                          1394.47     0     7.81
 64   Burkina Faso                     1383.94     0    -1.13
 65   United Arab Emirates             1380.40     0    -2.30
 66   North Macedonia                  1378.54     1     2.96
 67   Georgia                          1375.26     1     2.21
 68   Albania                          1373.29    -2    -2.66
 69   Honduras                         1354.48     6    20.98
 70   Bosnia and Herzegovina           1349.11     0    -1.74
 71   Cape Verde Islands               1346.67     1     2.30
 72   Finland                          1346.55    -3   -13.24
 73   Northern Ireland                 1345.91    -2    -2.75
 74   Ghana                            1333.33     2     0.20
 74   Iceland                          1333.02     0    -3.53
 76   Montenegro                       1332.32    -3    -5.04
 77   Israel                           1326.56     1     4.78
 78   Oman                             1325.33    -1     1.42
 79   Gabon                            1315.92     0     6.10
 80   El Salvador                      1311.04     1    10.23
 81   Guinea                           1292.89     1     0.26
 82   Bolivia                          1290.71    -2   -17.41
 83   Zambia                           1290.18     5    13.84
 83   Haiti                            1290.16     0    -1.38
 85   Bulgaria                         1289.34     0     0.31
 86   Angola                           1288.46     1     8.91
 87   Bahrain                          1280.06    -3    -9.94
 88   New Zealand                      1278.97    -2    -5.71
 89   Uganda                           1274.28     0     0.45
 90   China                            1261.37     4    10.42
 91   Syria                            1260.82     2     7.01
 92   Equatorial Guinea                1256.51     0     0.76
 93   Luxembourg                       1255.13    -2    -6.76
 94   Curaçao                          1248.99    -4   -15.79
 95   Thailand                         1247.07     4    12.76
 96   Mozambique                       1242.71     0     3.37
 97   Benin                            1238.97    -2    -1.48
 98   Kosovo                           1237.75    -1    -0.63
 99   Belarus                          1237.24    -1     1.88
100   Palestine                        1223.91     1    -0.75
101   Tajikistan                       1215.04     3    11.62
102   Kyrgyzstan                       1208.03     1     2.35
103   Armenia                          1204.73    -1    -3.58
104   Comoros                          1203.24     0     0.11
105   Trinidad and Tobago              1195.15    -5   -34.37
106   Vietnam                          1194.85     3    11.01
107   Namibia                          1194.31     1     2.02
108   Tanzania                         1193.26    -1    -2.77
109   Lebanon                          1184.94     3     6.99
110   Mauritania                       1183.81     0     4.26
111   Kenya                            1178.53     0     0.00
112   Guatemala                        1178.19    -6   -18.92
113   Sudan                            1173.60     1     0.01
114   Kazakhstan                       1165.23    -2   -12.43
115   Madagascar                       1159.90     0    -2.96
116   Libya                            1155.19     0     0.00
117   Zimbabwe                         1153.48    -1    -7.03
117   Azerbaijan                       1153.00     2     2.37
119   Togo                             1145.73     1    -3.77
120   Sierra Leone                     1140.06     0     0.00
121   Niger                            1139.77     1    -3.47
122   North Korea                      1138.97    -4   -14.41
123   India                            1138.34     4     6.31
124   Congo                            1136.31     0     0.00
125   Estonia                          1130.95    -4   -13.52
126   Indonesia                        1130.08    -3   -12.84
127   Gambia                           1126.45    -1    -6.97
128   Rwanda                           1125.47     2    -1.89
129   Guinea-Bissau                    1124.58    -1    -3.70
130   Nicaragua                        1122.43     3     8.15
131   Cyprus                           1119.44    -3    -8.77
131   Malawi                           1119.26     1     0.91
133   Malaysia                         1110.54    -2   -13.03
134   Kuwait                           1098.87     0   -13.25
135   Central African Republic         1097.54     0    -4.26
136   Surinam                          1097.11     1     0.50
137   Botswana                         1095.50    -1    -5.70
138   Faroe Islands                    1089.74     3     4.62
139   Burundi                          1086.70     1     0.37
140   Latvia                           1081.66    -2   -10.83
141   Lithuania                        1081.65     2     9.09
142   Dominican Republic               1076.38    -3   -10.83
143   Turkmenistan                     1067.40    -1    -8.73
144   Liberia                          1061.52     0    -6.78
145   St. Kitts and Nevis              1060.92     0    -4.07
146   Ethiopia                         1060.62     0     0.00
147   Philippines                      1053.85    -2    -9.16
148   Solomon Islands                  1045.58     0     0.00
149   Fiji                             1043.44     0     0.00
150   New Caledonia                    1039.55     0     0.00
151   Lesotho                          1037.44    -3    -8.91
151   Guyana                           1037.11     1    -0.80
153   Moldova                          1028.41     1    -2.96
154   Hong Kong                        1026.79    -1    -6.26
155   Eswatini                         1019.16     0    -3.71
155   Tahiti                           1019.04     0     0.00
157   Singapore                        1012.29     4    10.03
158   Yemen                            1008.75     0    -8.81
159   Puerto Rico                      1005.67    -2   -13.31
160   Antigua and Barbuda              1004.67    -1    -6.30
161   Myanmar                          1004.06     1     8.85
162   Afghanistan                      1001.37    -2    -7.01
163   Maldives                          995.64     1     9.22
164   Vanuatu                           991.59     0     0.00
165   Taiwan                            988.83     1     8.99
166   Bermuda                           987.24     2     9.71
167   Cuba                              980.63     0     0.92
168   St. Vincent and the Grenadines    979.63     4    13.58
169   St. Lucia                         978.49    -4    -7.23
170   South Sudan                       975.60     0     0.00
171   Papua New Guinea                  969.17     0     0.00
172   Malta                             964.99    -3   -11.37
173   Grenada                           954.91     1     0.46
174   Andorra                           954.06    -1    -3.35
175   Barbados                          944.67     1    11.38
176   Nepal                             943.37    -1     7.08
177   Chad                              929.56     0     4.43
178   Belize                            916.85     1    -2.40
179   Mauritius                         915.33    -1    -6.28
180   Cambodia                          910.21     1    -2.47
181   Bhutan                            906.56     1    -0.24
182   Montserrat                        904.54    -2    -9.71
183   Dominica                          901.33     1     1.33
184   Brunei                            898.00     1     4.65
185   Bangladesh                        894.01    -2   -10.15
186   American Samoa                    883.17     0     0.00
187   Mongolia                          879.75     0     0.00
188   Cook Islands                      877.53     0     0.00
189   Samoa                             876.41     0     0.00
190   Macao                             865.29     0     0.00
190   Laos                              865.23    -1   -11.17
190   São Tomé and Príncipe             865.09     3     0.01
193   Djibouti                          861.31    -1    -4.44
194   Eritrea                           855.56     0     0.00
195   Cayman Islands                    853.37    -4   -13.34
196   Aruba                             848.82    -1   -14.76
197   Tonga                             835.64     0     0.00
198   Gibraltar                         835.18    -1    -8.02
199   Somalia                           832.13     0     0.00
200   Timor Leste                       830.47    -2    -9.06
201   Pakistan                          829.41    -2    -8.85
202   Guam                              823.08     0     0.00
203   Seychelles                        820.71     0     0.00
204   Sri Lanka                         820.36    -3   -13.42
205   Liechtenstein                     811.68     1    -2.18
206   Bahamas                           807.40    -1   -11.18
207   Turks and Caicos Islands          803.98     0     0.00
208   US Virgin Islands                 779.71     0     0.00
209   British Virgin Islands            766.81    -1   -13.48
210   Anguilla                          759.56     0    -9.75
211   San Marino                        738.24     0    -3.12

FIFA Ranking - July 2025 - Expected Results

Below are the point exchanges for matches that have already been played, and the expected results. For the COSAFA Cup matches please don't expect too much from the predictions because for now my software doesn't handle situation very well yet where countries send their "A" ("B") teams.

Actual Results

Date                                                 Tournament                     I   R     WExp     Pts1
2025-04-17 Anguilla v British Virgin Isl Friendly 2025 5 X 0.49 0.05
2025-04-20 Anguilla v British Virgin Isl Friendly 2025 5 1 0.49 2.55
2025-05-03 Gambia v Algeria African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 X 0.19 1.54
2025-05-03 Malawi v South Africa African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 1 0.22 3.89
2025-05-08 Dominica v Barbados Friendly 2025 5 X 0.47 0.16
2025-05-09 Algeria v Gambia African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 1 0.81 0.97
2025-05-11 Dominica v Barbados Friendly 2025 5 X 0.47 0.16
2025-05-11 South Africa v Malawi African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 1 0.77 1.14
2025-05-20 St. Kitts & Nevis v St. Vincent & Gren Friendly 2025 5 2 0.59 -2.97
2025-05-25 St. Vincent & Gren v St. Kitts & Nevis Friendly 2025 5 1 0.41 2.94
2025-05-27 Trinidad and Tobago v Jamaica Friendly 2025 5 2 0.35 -1.77
2025-05-28 Nigeria v Ghana Friendly 2025 5 1 0.64 1.81
2025-05-28 Oman v Lebanon Friendly 2025 5 1 0.64 1.82
2025-05-29 Malaysia v Cape Verde Islands Friendly 2025 5 X 0.30 1.00
2025-05-29 St. Vincent & Gren v British Virgin Isl Friendly 2025 5 X 0.68 -0.89

Expected Results

Date                                                 Tournament                     I   R     WExp    Win    Draw    Loss   PW1    PL1    PW2    PL2
2025-06-01  Puerto Rico v Nicaragua                  Friendly 2025                   5  2     0.41   2.95    0.45   -2.05                           
2025-06-02 Tunisia v Burkina Faso Friendly 2025 10 1 0.58 4.15 -0.85 -5.85
2025-06-03 Malaysia v Cape Verde Islands Friendly 2025 10 2 0.30 6.98 1.98 -3.02
2025-06-04 Bangladesh v Bhutan Friendly 2025 10 X 0.50 5.03 0.03 -4.97
2025-06-04 Barbados v Aruba World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.57 10.85 -1.65 -14.15
2025-06-04 Bermuda v Cayman Islands World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.60 9.88 -2.62 -15.12
2025-06-04 Dominica v British Virgin Isl World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.61 9.63 -2.87 -15.37
2025-06-04 Germany v Portugal UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 X-PL 0.47 13.29 0.79 0.00 7.04 0.79 5.46 0.00
2025-06-04 Grenada v Bahamas World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.63 9.28 -3.22 -15.72
2025-06-04 Mauritius v Zimbabwe COSAFA Cup 2025 10 2 0.29 7.14 2.14 -2.86
2025-06-04 Montserrat v Belize World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.50 12.62 0.12 -12.38
2025-06-04 South Africa v Mozambique COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.69 3.15 -1.85 -6.85
2025-06-04 St. Vincent & Gren v Anguilla World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.91 -4.59 -17.09
2025-06-04 Thailand v India Friendly 2025 10 1 0.60 4.03 -0.97 -5.97
2025-06-05 Algeria v Rwanda Friendly 2025 10 1 0.81 1.89 -3.11 -8.11
2025-06-05 Angola v Namibia COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.58 4.17 -0.83 -5.83
2025-06-05 Australia v Japan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.41 14.83 2.33 -10.17
2025-06-05 Bahrain v Saudi Arabia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.38 15.53 3.03 -9.47
2025-06-05 Belarus v Kazakhstan Friendly 2025 10 1 0.56 4.45 -0.55 -5.55
2025-06-05 Cambodia v Tajikistan Friendly 2025 10 2 0.25 7.53 2.53 -2.47
2025-06-05 Chile v Argentina World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.16 20.90 8.40 -4.10
2025-06-05 Ecuador v Brazil World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.31 17.24 4.74 -7.76
2025-06-05 Georgia v Faroe Islands Friendly 2025 10 1 0.75 2.49 -2.51 -7.51
2025-06-05 Hong Kong v Nepal Friendly 2025 10 1 0.59 4.08 -0.92 -5.92
2025-06-05 Indonesia v China World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.40 15.05 2.55 -9.95
2025-06-05 Iraq v South Korea World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.35 16.25 3.75 -8.75
2025-06-05 Kuwait v Palestine World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.16 2.66 -9.84
2025-06-05 Malawi v Lesotho COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.57 4.29 -0.71 -5.71
2025-06-05 Mali v Democratic Republic Congo Friendly 2025 10 1 0.55 4.49 -0.51 -5.51
2025-06-05 North Korea v Kyrgyzstan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.45 13.75 1.25 -11.25
2025-06-05 Oman v Jordan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.44 14.01 1.51 -10.99
2025-06-05 Paraguay v Uruguay World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.31 17.15 4.65 -7.85
2025-06-05 Qatar v Iran World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.33 16.67 4.17 -8.33
2025-06-05 Singapore v Maldives Friendly 2025 10 X 0.52 4.85 -0.15 -5.15
2025-06-05 Spain v France UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 X-PW 0.50 12.45 0.00 0.00 6.20 0.00 6.30 0.05
2025-06-05 Sri Lanka v Brunei Friendly 2025 10 2 0.44 5.57 0.57 -4.43
2025-06-05 United Arab Emirates v Uzbekistan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.45 13.80 1.30 -11.20
2025-06-06 Antigua and Barbuda v Cuba World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.75 -0.75 -13.25
2025-06-06 Bulgaria v Cyprus Friendly 2025 10 1 0.65 3.50 -1.50 -6.50
2025-06-06 Burkina Faso v Zimbabwe Friendly 2025 10 1 0.70 3.03 -1.97 -6.97
2025-06-06 Cameroon v Uganda Friendly 2025 10 1 0.68 3.24 -1.76 -6.76
2025-06-06 Colombia v Peru World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 8.02 -4.48 -16.98
2025-06-06 Curaçao v St. Lucia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.74 6.38 -6.12 -18.62
2025-06-06 Czechia v Montenegro World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.64 8.91 -3.59 -16.09
2025-06-06 Equatorial Guinea v Gambia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.61 3.85 -1.15 -6.15
2025-06-06 Estonia v Israel World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.34 16.60 4.10 -8.40
2025-06-06 Gabon v Guinea-Bissau Friendly 2025 10 1 0.67 3.33 -1.67 -6.67
2025-06-06 Gibraltar v Croatia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.04 24.10 11.60 -0.90
2025-06-06 Guatemala v Dominican Republic World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.60 9.95 -2.55 -15.05
2025-06-06 Guinea v Niger Friendly 2025 10 1 0.64 3.60 -1.40 -6.40
2025-06-06 Hungary v Sweden Friendly 2025 10 X 0.47 5.31 0.31 -4.69
2025-06-06 Ireland v Senegal Friendly 2025 10 2 0.30 6.98 1.98 -3.02
2025-06-06 Kosovo v Armenia Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.71 -0.29 -5.29
2025-06-06 Luxembourg v Slovenia Friendly 2025 10 2 0.32 6.84 1.84 -3.16
2025-06-06 Mauritania v Central African Rep Friendly 2025 10 1 0.57 4.26 -0.74 -5.74
2025-06-06 Morocco v Tunisia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.70 3.04 -1.96 -6.96
2025-06-06 Nicaragua v Guyana World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.57 10.63 -1.87 -14.37
2025-06-06 North Macedonia v Belgium World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.20 19.98 7.48 -5.02
2025-06-06 Norway v Italy World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.30 17.51 5.01 -7.49
2025-06-06 Poland v Moldova Friendly 2025 10 1 0.87 1.34 -3.66 -8.66
2025-06-06 Russia v Nigeria Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.70 -0.30 -5.30
2025-06-06 Scotland v Iceland Friendly 2025 10 1 0.63 3.65 -1.35 -6.35
2025-06-06 South Africa v Tanzania Friendly 2025 10 1 0.72 2.77 -2.23 -7.23
2025-06-06 Sudan v Liberia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.60 4.00 -1.00 -6.00
2025-06-06 Surinam v Puerto Rico World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.58 10.60 -1.90 -14.40
2025-06-06 Trinidad and Tobago v St. Kitts & Nevis World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.65 8.63 -3.87 -16.37
2025-06-06 Venezuela v Bolivia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.66 8.59 -3.91 -16.41
2025-06-06 Wales v Liechtenstein World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.94 1.47 -11.03 -23.53
2025-06-06 Zambia v Comoros COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.57 4.30 -0.70 -5.70
2025-06-06 Zambia v Togo Friendly 2025 10 1 0.62 3.77 -1.23 -6.23
2025-06-07 Albania v Serbia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.36 15.96 3.46 -9.04
2025-06-07 Andorra v England World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.04 24.12 11.62 -0.88
2025-06-07 Anguilla v El Salvador World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.11 22.21 9.71 -2.79
2025-06-07 Aruba v Haiti World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.16 21.09 8.59 -3.91
2025-06-07 Austria v Romania World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.60 10.11 -2.39 -14.89
2025-06-07 Bahamas v Costa Rica World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.08 23.09 10.59 -1.91
2025-06-07 Belize v Panama World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.09 22.72 10.22 -2.28
2025-06-07 Bosnia & Herzegovina v San Marino World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.91 2.20 -10.30 -22.80
2025-06-07 British Virgin Isl v Jamaica World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.09 22.86 10.36 -2.14
2025-06-07 Canada v Ukraine Friendly 2025 10 X 0.47 5.27 0.27 -4.73
2025-06-07 Cayman Islands v Honduras World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.14 21.54 9.04 -3.46
2025-06-07 Denmark v Northern Ireland Friendly 2025 10 1 0.74 2.63 -2.37 -7.37
2025-06-07 Djibouti v São Tomé & Príncipe Friendly 2025 10 X 0.50 4.99 -0.01 -5.01
2025-06-07 Finland v Netherlands World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.18 20.46 7.96 -4.54
2025-06-07 Greece v Slovakia Friendly 2025 10 X 0.51 4.88 -0.12 -5.12
2025-06-07 Latvia v Azerbaijan Friendly 2025 10 2 0.44 5.56 0.56 -4.44
2025-06-07 Malta v Lithuania World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.41 14.78 2.28 -10.22
2025-06-07 Mexico v Switzerland Friendly 2025 10 X 0.52 4.79 -0.21 -5.21
2025-06-07 Mozambique v Mauritius COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.77 2.28 -2.72 -7.72
2025-06-07 New Zealand v Côte d'Ivoire Friendly 2025 10 2 0.31 6.85 1.85 -3.15
2025-06-07 South Africa v Zimbabwe COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.75 2.49 -2.51 -7.51
2025-06-07 United States v Türkiye Friendly 2025 10 1 0.59 4.08 -0.92 -5.92
2025-06-08 Angola v Lesotho COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.72 2.83 -2.17 -7.17
2025-06-08 Democratic Republic Congo v Madagascar Friendly 2025 10 1 0.71 2.85 -2.15 -7.15
2025-06-08 Georgia v Cape Verde Islands Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.72 -0.28 -5.28
2025-06-08 Germany v France UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 2 0.37 15.67 3.17 -9.33 9.42 3.17 3.08 0.00
2025-06-08 Namibia v Malawi COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.56 4.40 -0.60 -5.60
2025-06-08 Portugal v Spain UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 2 0.40 14.99 2.49 -10.01 8.74 2.49 3.76 0.00
2025-06-09 Belgium v Wales World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.69 7.85 -4.65 -17.15
2025-06-09 Cameroon v Equatorial Guinea Friendly 2025 10 1 0.69 3.09 -1.91 -6.91
2025-06-09 Comoros v Botswana COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.59 4.07 -0.93 -5.93
2025-06-09 Croatia v Czechia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.94 -4.56 -17.06
2025-06-09 Estonia v Norway World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.20 19.88 7.38 -5.12
2025-06-09 Faroe Islands v Gibraltar World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.72 7.11 -5.39 -17.89
2025-06-09 Gabon v Liberia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.72 2.78 -2.22 -7.22
2025-06-09 Guinea-Bissau v Burundi Friendly 2025 10 X 0.54 4.63 -0.37 -5.37
2025-06-09 Italy v Moldova World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.94 1.62 -10.88 -23.38
2025-06-09 Kazakhstan v North Macedonia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.32 17.02 4.52 -7.98
2025-06-09 Kosovo v Comoros Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.66 -0.34 -5.34
2025-06-09 Liechtenstein v Scotland Friendly 2025 10 2 0.07 9.29 4.29 -0.71
2025-06-09 Madagascar v Eswatini COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.63 3.71 -1.29 -6.29
2025-06-09 Montenegro v Armenia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.61 3.87 -1.13 -6.13
2025-06-09 Morocco v Benin Friendly 2025 10 1 0.85 1.48 -3.52 -8.52
2025-06-09 Uganda v Gambia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.63 3.68 -1.32 -6.32
2025-06-10 Afghanistan v Syria Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.28 17.99 5.49 -7.01
2025-06-10 Argentina v Colombia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.69 7.86 -4.64 -17.14
2025-06-10 Azerbaijan v Hungary Friendly 2025 10 2 0.21 7.92 2.92 -2.08
2025-06-10 Bangladesh v Singapore Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.41 14.82 2.32 -10.18
2025-06-10 Belarus v Russia Friendly 2025 10 2 0.26 7.43 2.43 -2.57
2025-06-10 Bolivia v Chile World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.35 16.18 3.68 -8.82
2025-06-10 Brazil v Paraguay World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.77 5.74 -6.76 -19.26
2025-06-10 Brunei v Bhutan Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 X 0.49 12.72 0.22 -12.28
2025-06-10 Canada v Côte d'Ivoire Friendly 2025 10 X 0.54 4.60 -0.40 -5.40
2025-06-10 Chad v Djibouti Friendly 2025 10 1 0.56 4.43 -0.57 -5.57
2025-06-10 China v Bahrain World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.48 12.97 0.47 -12.03
2025-06-10 Costa Rica v Trinidad and Tobago World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.70 7.38 -5.12 -17.62
2025-06-10 Cuba v Bermuda World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.49 12.67 0.17 -12.33
2025-06-10 Denmark v Lithuania Friendly 2025 10 1 0.89 1.13 -3.87 -8.87
2025-06-10 Dominican Republic v Dominica World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.66 8.62 -3.88 -16.38
2025-06-10 El Salvador v Surinam World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.96 -4.54 -17.04
2025-06-10 England v Senegal Friendly 2025 10 1 0.67 3.28 -1.72 -6.72
2025-06-10 Finland v Poland World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.35 16.30 3.80 -8.70
2025-06-10 Greece v Bulgaria Friendly 2025 10 1 0.68 3.19 -1.81 -6.81
2025-06-10 Guyana v Montserrat World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.61 9.83 -2.67 -15.17
2025-06-10 Haiti v Curaçao World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.52 11.92 -0.58 -13.08
2025-06-10 Honduras v Antigua and Barbuda World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.78 5.55 -6.95 -19.45
2025-06-10 Hong Kong v India Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.41 14.66 2.16 -10.34
2025-06-10 Iran v North Korea World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.87 3.16 -9.34 -21.84
2025-06-10 Jamaica v Guatemala World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.67 8.27 -4.23 -16.73
2025-06-10 Japan v Indonesia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.88 2.89 -9.61 -22.11
2025-06-10 Jordan v Iraq World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.50 12.61 0.11 -12.39
2025-06-10 Kyrgyzstan v United Arab Emirates World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.36 16.10 3.60 -8.90
2025-06-10 Laos v Nepal Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.45 13.83 1.33 -11.17
2025-06-10 Latvia v Albania World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.26 18.62 6.12 -6.38
2025-06-10 Luxembourg v Ireland Friendly 2025 10 2 0.36 6.40 1.40 -3.60
2025-06-10 Malaysia v Vietnam Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.44 13.99 1.49 -11.01
2025-06-10 Mexico v Türkiye Friendly 2025 10 1 0.59 4.06 -0.94 -5.94
2025-06-10 Mozambique v Zimbabwe COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.58 4.23 -0.77 -5.77
2025-06-10 Netherlands v Malta World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.95 1.15 -11.35 -23.85
2025-06-10 New Zealand v Ukraine Friendly 2025 10 2 0.26 7.44 2.44 -2.56
2025-06-10 Northern Ireland v Iceland Friendly 2025 10 X 0.51 4.87 -0.13 -5.13
2025-06-10 Pakistan v Myanmar Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.35 16.15 3.65 -8.85
2025-06-10 Palestine v Oman World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.42 14.41 1.91 -10.59
2025-06-10 Panama v Nicaragua World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.82 4.53 -7.97 -20.47
2025-06-10 Peru v Ecuador World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.42 14.51 2.01 -10.49
2025-06-10 Philippines v Tajikistan Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.37 15.84 3.34 -9.16
2025-06-10 Puerto Rico v St. Vincent & Gren World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.84 -0.66 -13.16
2025-06-10 Romania v Cyprus World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.79 5.26 -7.24 -19.74
2025-06-10 San Marino v Austria World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.04 24.08 11.58 -0.92
2025-06-10 Saudi Arabia v Australia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.24 2.74 -9.76
2025-06-10 Serbia v Andorra World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.90 2.47 -10.03 -22.53
2025-06-10 Slovakia v Israel Friendly 2025 10 1 0.64 3.62 -1.38 -6.38
2025-06-10 Slovenia v Bosnia & Herzegovina Friendly 2025 10 1 0.61 3.93 -1.07 -6.07
2025-06-10 South Africa v Mauritius COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.89 1.14 -3.86 -8.86
2025-06-10 South Korea v Kuwait World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.86 3.40 -9.10 -21.60
2025-06-10 Sri Lanka v Taiwan Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.36 16.01 3.51 -8.99
2025-06-10 St. Kitts & Nevis v Grenada World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.58 10.48 -2.02 -14.52
2025-06-10 St. Lucia v Barbados World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.65 -0.85 -13.35
2025-06-10 Sweden v Algeria Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.74 -0.26 -5.26
2025-06-10 Timor Leste v Maldives Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.36 15.94 3.44 -9.06
2025-06-10 Tunisia v Guinea Friendly 2025 10 1 0.67 3.35 -1.65 -6.65
2025-06-10 Turkmenistan v Thailand Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.35 16.27 3.77 -8.73
2025-06-10 United States v Switzerland Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.73 -0.27 -5.27
2025-06-10 Uruguay v Venezuela World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.89 -4.61 -17.11
2025-06-10 Uzbekistan v Qatar World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.50 12.50 0.00 -12.50
2025-06-10 Yemen v Lebanon Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.35 16.19 3.69 -8.81
2025-06-10 Zambia v Sudan Friendly 2025 10 1 0.60 3.99 -1.01 -6.01
2025-06-10 Zimbabwe v Niger Friendly 2025 10 X 0.51 4.87 -0.13 -5.13
2025-06-11 Botswana v Zambia COSAFA Cup 2025 5 2 0.32 3.38 0.88 -1.62
2025-06-11 Malawi v Angola COSAFA Cup 2025 5 2 0.35 3.27 0.77 -1.73
2025-06-11 Namibia v Lesotho COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.64 1.79 -0.71 -3.21
2025-06-13 Angola v Madagascar COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.62 1.91 -0.59 -3.09 0.66 -0.59 1.84 0.59
2025-06-13 South Africa v Zambia COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.65 1.75 -0.75 -3.25 0.50 -0.75 2.00 0.75
2025-06-14 Mexico v Dominican Republic CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.90 3.59 -13.91 -31.41
2025-06-15 Costa Rica v Surinam CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.80 6.83 -10.67 -28.17
2025-06-15 Haiti v Saudi Arabia CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.38 21.58 4.08 -13.42
2025-06-15 South Africa v Angola COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.65 1.74 -0.76 -3.26 0.49 -0.76 2.01 0.76
2025-06-15 United States v Trinidad and Tobago CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.84 5.72 -11.78 -29.28
2025-06-15 Zambia v Madagascar COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.62 1.90 -0.60 -3.10 0.65 -0.60 1.85 0.60
2025-06-16 Jamaica v Guatemala CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.68 11.10 -6.40 -23.90
2025-06-17 Canada v Honduras CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.67 11.42 -6.08 -23.58
2025-06-17 Curaçao v El Salvador CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 X 0.46 18.90 1.40 -16.10
2025-06-18 Costa Rica v Dominican Republic CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.82 6.34 -11.16 -28.66
2025-06-18 Surinam v Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.10 31.37 13.87 -3.63
2025-06-19 Trinidad and Tobago v Haiti CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.44 19.51 2.01 -15.49
2025-06-19 United States v Saudi Arabia CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.70 10.35 -7.15 -24.65
2025-06-20 Guatemala v Panama CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.21 27.51 10.01 -7.49
2025-06-21 Curaçao v Canada CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.26 25.83 8.33 -9.17
2025-06-21 Honduras v El Salvador CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 X 0.52 16.86 -0.64 -18.14
2025-06-22 Dominican Republic v Surinam CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 X 0.49 17.93 0.43 -17.07
2025-06-22 Mexico v Costa Rica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.66 11.79 -5.71 -23.21
2025-06-22 Saudi Arabia v Trinidad and Tobago CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.70 10.64 -6.86 -24.36
2025-06-22 United States v Haiti CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.81 6.78 -10.72 -28.22
2025-06-23 Canada v El Salvador CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.71 9.99 -7.51 -25.01
2025-06-23 Honduras v Curaçao CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.56 15.28 -2.22 -19.72
2025-06-24 Panama v Jamaica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.62 13.41 -4.09 -21.59 2025-06-28 Canada v Jamaica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.66 13.78* -6.22* -26.22* 3.78 0.00 16.22 6.22 2025-06-28 Mexico v Saudi Arabia CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.71 11.47* -8.53* -28.53* 1.47 0.00 18.53 8.53 2025-06-29 Panama v Honduras CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.68 12.69* -7.31* -27.31* 2.69 0.00 17.31 7.31 2025-06-29 United States v Costa Rica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.69 12.49* -7.51* -27.51* 2.49 0.00 17.51 7.51 2025-07-02 Mexico v Panama CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.62 15.36* -4.64* -24.64* 5.36 0.00 14.64 4.64 2025-07-02 United States v Canada CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.61 15.76* -4.24* -24.24* 5.76 0.00 14.24 4.24
2025-07-06 United States v Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 X-PW 0.51 19.73* -0.27* -20.27* 9.73 0.00 10.27 0.27
Column information:
I = Importance
R = Result
WExp = (FIFA) Win Expectancy
Pts1 = Points exchanged for team 1, inverse for team 2
Win = Points gained if team 1 wins, inverse for team 2 (loss) Draw = Points gained in case of draw, inverse for team 2 Loss = Points gained if team 1 loses, inverse for team 2 (win)
PW1/2 = Penalty win for team 1/2
PL21/2 = Penalty loss for team 1/2
X-PW = A draw, but team 1 expected to win penalty shoot-out (based on FIFA ranking win expectancy)
X-PL = A draw, but team 1 expected to lose penalty shoot-out (based on FIFA ranking win expectancy)
* = Losing team cannot lose points, but points are left as indication for team 2 (inverse it though!)

Sunday, April 27, 2025

2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 27 April 2025)

Qualifying Groups

With this post I've now also included the playoffs in the simulation, and as such I can give a total qualifying percentage for each country.

NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.

Group A

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Germany                 69.34%  21.27%   7.18%   2.21%  30.66%  82.40%  17.60%
Slovakia                21.05%  43.53%  23.50%  11.92%  43.53%  31.96%  68.04%
Luxembourg               5.73%  19.23%  30.96%  44.08%  19.23%   7.62%  92.38%
Northern Ireland         3.88%  15.97%  38.36%  41.79%  85.02%  13.45%  86.55%

Group B

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Switzerland             49.54%  29.26%  16.42%   4.78%  29.26%  61.00%  39.00%
Sweden                  29.88%  34.12%  26.39%   9.61%  69.47%  49.20%  50.80%
Slovenia                17.91%  27.98%  35.98%  18.13%  27.98%  24.29%  75.71%
Kosovo                   2.67%   8.64%  21.21%  67.48%   8.64%   3.39%  96.61%

Group C

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Denmark                 50.54%  28.87%  16.80%   3.79%  29.59%  62.06%  37.94%
Greece                  24.19%  32.74%  31.54%  11.53%  32.74%  33.00%  67.00%
Scotland                23.11%  31.74%  33.02%  12.13%  33.09%  32.01%  67.99%
Belarus                  2.16%   6.65%  18.64%  72.55%   6.65%   2.77%  97.23%

Group D

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
France                  83.99%  13.62%   2.24%   0.15%  16.01%  93.92%   6.08%
Ukraine                 12.81%  55.54%  24.78%   6.96%  55.45%  32.27%  67.73%    
Iceland                  2.78%  24.33%  49.06%  23.83%  24.33%   6.52%  94.48%
Azerbaijan               0.42%   6.60%  23.92%  69.06%   6.60%   0.80%  99.20%

Group E

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Spain                   81.56%  14.62%   3.24%   0.58%  18.44%  92.38%   7.62%
Türkiye                 12.67%  49.19%  25.61%  12.53%  49.19%  29.21%  70.79%
Georgia                  3.67%  21.34%  38.58%  36.41%  21.34%   6.71%  93.29%
Bulgaria                 2.10%  14.85%  32.57%  50.48%  14.85%   3.73%  96.27%

Group F

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Portugal                72.00%  20.53%   6.13%   1.34%  28.00%  86.50%  13.50%
Hungary                 18.31%  43.70%  27.38%  10.61%  44.01%  32.12%  67.88%
Ireland                  8.06%  26.54%  41.13%  24.27%  26.54%  12.66%  87.34%
Armenia                  1.63%   9.23%  25.36%  63.78%   9.23%   2.42%  97.58%

Group G

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Netherlands             73.50%  21.89%   4.33%   0.28%   0.00%  22.08%  84.34%  15.66%
Poland                  22.38%  56.02%  19.93%   1.64%   0.03%  56.06%  37.92%  62.08%
Finland                  4.04%  21.06%  63.26%  10.82%   0.82%  21.06%   7.47%  92.53%
Lithuania                0.07%   0.84%   9.58%  58.72%  30.79%   0.84%   0.11%  99.89%
Malta                    0.01%   0.19%   2.90%  28.54%  68.36%   0.19%   0.01%  99.99%

Group H

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Austria                 56.65%  25.08%  15.55%   2.69%   0.03%  25.08%  65.36%  34.64%
Bosnia and Herzegovina  24.63%  38.85%  32.20%   4.20%   0.12%  38.85%  28.56%  71.44%
Romania                 18.05%  32.59%  39.06%  10.19%   0.11%  81.84%  36.90%  63.10%
Cyprus                   0.67%   3.45%  13.04%  79.66%   3.18%   3.45%   0.82%  99.18%
San Marino               0.00%   0.03%   0.15%   3.26%  96.56%  25.01%   0.01%  99.99%

Group I

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Italy                   68.49%  27.16%   3.74%   0.59%   0.02%  27.32%  81.91%  18.09%
Norway                  29.61%  58.44%  10.19%   1.75%   0.01%  70.39%  45.51%  54.49%
Israel                   1.62%  10.37%  58.37%  24.37%   5.27%  10.52%   2.87%  97.13%
Estonia                  0.28%   3.84%  23.81%  59.00%  13.07%   3.84%   0.47%  99.53%
Moldova                  0.00%   0.19%   3.89%  14.29%  81.63%  61.15%   1.17%  98.83%

Group J

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Belgium                 71.03%  20.88%   7.03%   1.05%   0.01%  21.16%  81.64%  18.36%
Wales                   22.48%  51.24%  22.34%   3.91%   0.03%  77.52%  45.65%  54.35%
North Macedonia          5.73%  23.17%  51.29%  19.59%   0.22%  91.77%  16.84%  83.16%
Kazakhstan               0.76%   4.71%  19.31%  73.06%   2.16%   4.71%   1.08%  98.92%
Liechtenstein            0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   2.39%  97.58%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%

Group K

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
England                 88.03%  10.91%   1.04%   0.02%   0.00%  11.97%  94.18%   5.82%
Serbia                   9.87%  54.47%  28.42%   6.63%   0.61%  54.95%  26.86%  73.14%
Albania                  2.04%  30.52%  51.65%  14.88%   0.91%  30.52%   6.73%  93.27%
Latvia                   0.06%   3.99%  17.85%  66.86%  11.24%   3.99%   0.18%  99.82%
Andorra                  0.00%   0.11%   1.04%  11.61%  87.24%   0.11%   0.00% 100.00%

Group L

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Croatia                 64.61%  26.23%   8.55%   0.59%   0.02%  26.66%  76.31%  23.69%
Czechia                 27.04%  47.62%  23.98%   1.36%   0.00%  72.96%  43.04%  56.96%
Montenegro               8.25%  25.33%  60.15%   6.10%   0.17%  25.33%  11.54%  88.46%
Faroe Islands            0.10%   0.78%   6.78%  73.58%  18.76%   0.78%   0.13%  99.87%
Gibraltar                0.00%   0.04%   0.54%  18.37%  81.05%   0.04%   0.00% 100.00%

Playoffs

Likelihood

The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round.

                       FRnk Grp  Playoff
North Macedonia 67 J 91.77%
Northern Ireland 71 A 85.02%
Romania 45 H 81.84%
Wales 29 J 77.52%
Czechia 39 L 72.96%
Norway 38 I 70.39%
Sweden 28 B 69.47%
Moldova 154 I 61.15%
Poland 34 G 56.06%
Ukraine 25 D 55.45%
Serbia 31 K 54.95%
Türkiye 27 E 49.19%
Hungary 37 F 44.01%
Slovakia 46 A 43.53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 38.85%
Scotland 44 C 33.09%
Greece 40 C 32.74%
Germany 10 A 30.66%
Albania 66 K 30.52%
Denmark 21 C 29.59%
Switzerland 20 B 29.26%
Portugal 7 F 28.00%
Slovenia 51 B 27.98%
Italy 9 I 27.32%
Croatia 11 L 26.66%
Ireland 60 F 26.54%
Montenegro 73 L 25.33%
Austria 22 H 25.08%
San Marino 210 H 25.01%
Iceland 74 D 24.33%
Netherlands 6 G 22.08%
Georgia 68 E 21.34%
Belgium 8 J 21.16%
Finland 69 G 21.06%
Luxembourg 91 A 19.23%
Spain 2 E 18.44%
France 3 D 16.01%
Bulgaria 85 E 14.85%
England 4 K 11.97%
Israel 78 I 10.52%
Armenia 102 F 9.23%
Kosovo 97 B 8.64%
Belarus 98 C 6.65%
Azerbaijan 119 D 6.60%
Kazakhstan 113 J 4.71%
Latvia 138 K 3.99%
Estonia 121 I 3.84%
Cyprus 129 H 3.45%
Lithuania 143 G 0.84%
Faroe Islands 141 L 0.78%
Malta 169 G 0.19%
Andorra 173 K 0.11%
Gibraltar 196 L 0.04%
Liechtenstein 205 J 0.00%

Results

The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Lose-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.

NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                       FRnk Grp  Win-Fin  Lose-Fi  Win-Sem Lose-Sem  Playoff
France 3 D 62.02% 20.36% 82.39% 17.61% 16.01%
Spain 2 E 58.68% 21.26% 79.93% 20.07% 18.44%
Portugal 7 F 51.79% 23.93% 75.71% 24.29% 28.00%
England 4 K 51.38% 25.65% 77.03% 22.97% 11.97%
Belgium 8 J 50.14% 27.74% 77.88% 22.12% 21.16%
Italy 9 I 49.12% 26.39% 75.51% 24.49% 27.32%
Netherlands 6 G 49.09% 27.22% 76.31% 23.69% 22.08%
Croatia 11 L 43.89% 28.69% 72.58% 27.42% 26.66%
Germany 10 A 42.60% 25.93% 68.53% 31.47% 30.66%
Switzerland 20 B 39.17% 29.46% 68.63% 31.37% 29.26%
Denmark 21 C 38.93% 29.64% 68.57% 31.43% 29.59%
Ukraine 25 D 35.09% 30.60% 65.70% 34.30% 55.45%
Austria 22 H 34.73% 31.02% 65.75% 34.25% 25.08%
Türkiye 27 E 33.62% 31.53% 65.16% 34.84% 49.19%
Hungary 37 F 31.38% 31.29% 62.67% 37.33% 44.01%
Serbia 31 K 30.92% 30.61% 61.53% 38.47% 54.95%
Wales 29 J 29.89% 28.29% 58.18% 41.82% 77.52%
Sweden 28 B 27.81% 27.65% 55.46% 44.54% 69.47%
Poland 34 G 27.72% 31.81% 59.53% 40.47% 56.06%
Greece 40 C 26.91% 30.33% 57.24% 42.76% 32.74%
Scotland 44 C 26.90% 27.92% 54.82% 45.18% 33.09%
Slovakia 46 A 25.06% 29.47% 54.54% 45.46% 43.53%
Romania 45 H 23.03% 25.94% 48.97% 51.03% 81.84%
Slovenia 51 B 22.80% 25.70% 48.50% 51.50% 27.98%
Norway 38 I 22.59% 28.11% 50.70% 49.30% 70.39%
Czechia 39 L 21.93% 26.15% 48.08% 51.92% 72.96%
Ireland 60 F 17.33% 25.06% 42.39% 57.61% 26.54%
Finland 69 G 16.29% 21.04% 37.32% 62.68% 21.06%
Iceland 74 D 15.37% 21.50% 36.87% 63.13% 24.33%
Albania 66 K 15.37% 23.30% 38.66% 61.34% 30.52%
Georgia 68 E 14.25% 21.09% 35.33% 64.67% 21.34%
Montenegro 73 L 12.99% 19.86% 32.85% 67.15% 25.33%
North Macedonia 67 J 12.11% 20.89% 33.00% 67.00% 91.77%
Israel 78 I 11.88% 21.01% 32.89% 67.11% 10.52%
Northern Ireland 71 A 11.26% 21.09% 32.35% 67.65% 85.02%
Bulgaria 85 E 10.98% 19.73% 30.71% 69.29% 14.85%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 10.12% 19.90% 30.01% 69.99% 38.85%
Luxembourg 91 A 9.83% 19.08% 28.91% 71.09% 19.23%
Belarus 98 C 9.17% 18.65% 27.82% 72.18% 6.65%
Armenia 102 F 8.56% 16.58% 25.14% 74.86% 9.23%
Kosovo 97 B 8.33% 19.56% 27.89% 72.11% 8.64%
Kazakhstan 113 J 6.79% 17.62% 24.42% 75.58% 4.71%
Azerbaijan 119 D 5.76% 17.42% 23.18% 76.82% 6.60%
Estonia 121 I 4.95% 17.71% 22.66% 77.34% 3.84%
Lithuania 143 G 4.76% 7.14% 11.90% 88.10% 0.84%
Cyprus 129 H 4.35% 16.81% 21.16% 78.84% 3.45%
Faroe Islands 141 L 3.85% 16.67% 20.51% 79.49% 0.78%
Latvia 138 K 3.01% 13.28% 16.29% 83.71% 3.99%
Moldova 154 I 1.91% 10.24% 12.15% 87.85% 61.15%
San Marino 210 H 0.04% 2.20% 2.24% 97.76% 25.01%
Andorra 173 K 0.00% 9.09% 9.09% 90.91% 0.11%
Gibraltar 196 L 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.04%
Malta 169 G 0.00% 15.79% 15.79% 84.21% 0.19%
Liechtenstein 205 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%

Overall Qualifying

This table is interesting because it shows the relative randomness of the group draw and the effect of using the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League Overall Ranking, giving Moldova and San Marino bigger changes to qualify. Other notables include Bosnia and Herzegovina and Luxembourg whose chances are currently higher than would be expected, and for countries like Ukraine, Türkiye and Israel the chances are smaller.

NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify.

NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

FRnk Grp Qual NotQual
England 4 K 94.18% 5.82%
France 3 D 93.92% 6.08%
Spain 2 E 92.38% 7.62%
Portugal 7 F 86.50% 13.50%
Netherlands 6 G 84.34% 15.66%
Germany 10 A 82.40% 17.60%
Italy 9 I 81.91% 18.09%
Belgium 8 J 81.64% 18.36%
Croatia 11 L 76.31% 23.69%
Austria 22 H 65.36% 34.64%
Denmark 21 C 62.06% 37.94%
Switzerland 20 B 61.00% 39.00%
Sweden 28 B 49.20% 50.80%
Wales 29 J 45.65% 54.35%
Norway 38 I 45.51% 54.49%
Czechia 39 L 43.04% 56.96%
Poland 34 G 37.92% 62.08%
Romania 45 H 36.90% 63.10%
Greece 40 C 33.00% 67.00%
Ukraine 25 D 32.27% 67.73%
Hungary 37 F 32.12% 67.88%
Scotland 44 C 32.01% 67.99%
Slovakia 46 A 31.96% 68.04%
Türkiye 27 E 29.21% 70.79%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 28.56% 71.44%
Serbia 31 K 26.86% 73.14%
Slovenia 51 B 24.29% 75.71%
North Macedonia 67 J 16.84% 83.16%
Northern Ireland 71 A 13.45% 86.55%
Ireland 60 F 12.66% 87.34%
Montenegro 73 L 11.54% 88.46%
Luxembourg 91 A 7.62% 92.38%
Finland 69 G 7.47% 92.53%
Albania 66 K 6.73% 93.27%
Georgia 68 E 6.71% 93.29%
Iceland 74 D 6.52% 93.48%
Bulgaria 85 E 3.73% 96.27%
Kosovo 97 B 3.39% 96.61%
Israel 78 I 2.87% 97.13%
Belarus 98 C 2.77% 97.23%
Armenia 102 F 2.42% 97.58%
Moldova 154 I 1.17% 98.83%
Kazakhstan 113 J 1.08% 98.92%
Cyprus 129 H 0.82% 99.18%
Azerbaijan 119 D 0.80% 99.20%
Estonia 121 I 0.47% 99.53%
Latvia 138 K 0.18% 99.82%
Faroe Islands 141 L 0.13% 99.87%
Lithuania 143 G 0.11% 99.89%
Malta 169 G 0.01% 99.99%
San Marino 210 H 0.01% 99.99%
Andorra 173 K 0.00% 100.00%
Gibraltar 196 L 0.00% 100.00%
Liechtenstein 205 J 0.00% 100.00%