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Friday, July 27, 2012

2018 FIFA World Cup: 3 years left until the preliminary draw

Next update: July/August 2013.

Assumption: same formats and schedule as for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.

Going the 2014 schedule, the 2018 FIFA World Cup preliminary draw will take place around 1 August 2015 and the FIFA ranking used to seed the teams from AFC, CAF and UEFA will be the July 2015 edition, while for the CONCACAF teams the March 2015 ranking will be used.

This means we already have 10% of the final formula (even more for CONCACAF teams), as the 0.2 time frame will close in a couple of days.

Mistake in the English FA work permit FIFA ranking averages

Last week I wrote about the UK work permit and a comment (I did say I have some very knowledgeable readers) made me realize a mistake I've made in my research - and this helped me find a mistake in the ranking produced by the English FA.

First of all, the English FA doesn't use the average FIFA ranking, but the ranking of the averages :)

Friday, July 20, 2012

FIFA Ranking: August 2012 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.

Only one match left: Guam - Macau.

This is how the points can change for these two teams:

Guam (L: 28, D: 35, W: 50)
Macau (L: 13, D: 22, W: 39)

Premier league work permit - non-EU ranking

I've heard a lot of people talking about the the work permit rules.

I took a look at the average rankings for this transfer window, the number of competitive matches in the last two years and the number of players each country had in the English Premier League last season - non-EU (European Union) countries only.

FIFA Women's Ranking: August 2012 preview

Next update: 10 August 2012 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 17 August.

Only 15 teams can still change their totals (11 of them will be at the Olympics).

The current rank shown in the next two tables is the current rank as of today - see the third table. That's why Brazil are 4th and not 5th as in the June ranking.

Friday, July 13, 2012

FIFA Ranking: Mano Menezes hoping against hope

Hoping against mathematics actually. Really, someone at CBF should take a look at the ranking procedure and explain it to Mr. Menezes, otherwise he's in for a surprise in the following months.

When asked last week about Brazil's fall out of the top 10, Mr. Menezes replied:

July 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Syria 132 66 66
Solomon Islands 174 131 43
Mauritania 202 162 40
Bulgaria 92 53 39
Fiji 161 122 39
New Caledonia 143 106 37
Cuba 150 113 37
Israel 82 48 34
Moldova 139 108 31
Eritrea 189 158 31

EURO 2012: Castrol Index Bottom 11

During the 2010 World Cup, I posted this after looking at the Castrol Index ranking and the heat maps.

Unfortunately, there were no heat maps for EURO 2012, but here's the bottom 11 (even if some players might be out of position):

Friday, July 6, 2012

FIFA Ranking: August 2012 preview

Next update: 3 August 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.

Only 3 matches left, all friendlies: South Sudan - Uganda, Guam - Macau and Jamaica - Liberia.

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (6 July 2012)

Next update: 21 September 2012.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (6 July 2012)

Next update: 21 September 2012

Include matches up to and including July 1st 2012.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.