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Wednesday, October 24, 2018

The new FIFA calculation: a brief comparative analysis

To get some more numerical insight in the effects of the new calculation method I've calculated the last 8 years of matches counting for the FIFA-ranking with the new calculation method.

Starting values for all matches from May 24th 2010 were determined, based on the May 2010 FIFA ranking positions, in the same way as was done by FIFA last Summer: the first team gets 1600 points (number one Brazil's actual FIFA rating at the time was 1611), the next team gets 4 points less. Teams on the same position get the same starting value.
All International Match Calendar windows from 2010 onwards were determined to correctly apply the I-factor of 10 for friendlies falling inside such a window.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

2021 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding

Since I've been asked about it:

Only two play-offs are to be played in November 2018 to complete the 12-team field for the U-21 EURO 2019. Those play-offs are held between Greece and Austria and between Poland and Portugal.

These four play-off matches will count for the coefficient ranking used to seed the U-21's for the draw of the qualification for the U-21 EURO 2021 next December/January. I couldn't find an announcement of the appointed host for this tournament yet.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Matchdays 3 and 4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.

The July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Here is an update after MD3 and MD4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

FIFA ranking: October 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday October 25th.

Best movers:
8 - Gibraltar
7 - Zimbabwe, Namibia

Worst movers:
-9 - Mozambique
-6 - Northern Ireland, Libya, Hungary, Congo DR

Saturday, October 6, 2018

FIFA ranking: October 2018 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2018 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 25th.

Lots of matches to be played this International Match Calendar window: 167 matches are scheduled with 136 currently in FIFA's fixture list. 
Most of the UEFA and CONMEBOL/CONCACAF friendlies are still to be incorporated though.

FIFA ranking: October 2018 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA October 2018 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

FIFA ranking: October 2018 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2018 ranking, to be published on October 25th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 136 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list. A total of 167 matches is scheduled to be played until October 16th.

FIFA ranking: October 2018 probable results

Here are the results of all currently scheduled matches until October 16th, used to calculate the October 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.