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Friday, October 19, 2012

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 preview (II)

Next update: 2 November 2012.

11 matches left before 3 November, the deadline I think FIFA will use. A couple of 2013 Gold Cup qualifiers in the Caribbean and a couple of friendlies in Vietnam.The results of these matches will not affect the top 90.

On 9 October, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee has declared the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying match Sudan-Zambia of 2 June 2012 to be lost by forfeit by Sudan (0-3), but the result still appears as 2-0 win for Sudan. However, for my calculations I have used the 0-3 result.

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (19 October 2012)

Next update: November 2012.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (19 October 2012)

Next update: October 2012

Includes matches up to and including 17 October 2012.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Best teams to play against on 14 November

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings for the matches still to be played before the November 2012 FIFA ranking deadline.

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for an OFC opponent.

Of the top 20 best teams to play against only 8 are still available for the 14 November FIFA match date.

I'm not 100% (thus I can't take the credit for it), but one of teams is no longer available because of a list of ideal opponents I sent to certain FA.

2013 African Cup of Nations qualifying simulations

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Chances of qualification:

98.03% - Congo DR
97.75% - Mali
95.32% - Nigeria
95.20% - Ghana
93.63% - Tunisia
93.00% - Côte d'Ivoire
91.32% - Guinea

October 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Syria 150 82 68
South Sudan 198 132 66
Fiji 167 117 50
Mauritania 205 164 41
China PR 85 48 37
Finland 88 53 35
Latvia 118 83 35
Moldova 145 112 33
Indonesia 170 140 30
Papua New Guinea 193 163 30

Friday, October 5, 2012

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 19 October 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results we could see Myanmar climb 36 spots, with Finland, Guyana, Albania, St. Kitts and Nevis, Cambodia, Laos, Belarus and Congo DR climbing more than 15.

Wales would tumble 32 spots to 89th. while Cyprus, Congo, Armenia and Grenada would drop at least 14 places.

In the top 50, Montenegro, Republic of Ireland  and Venezuela would drop 7 or more spots, while Serbia, Turkey, USA, Ukraine and Jamaica would climb 7 or more spots.

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 preview

Next update: 19 October 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 November.

Two second round groups of the Caribbean Championship qualifiers will also take place in October, but I don't have the exact dates. However, they are scheduled after 19 October (my next update).

Spain still safe in first place. Even if they lose to Belarus and France, Germany would still be three points behind them even with wins against the Republic of Ireland and Sweden.

Thailand will fall to its worst ever raking, dropping to at least 144th - at worst 155th. Their previous worst ever ranking was 141st in April 2012.