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Wednesday, August 20, 2014

August 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the August FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent

The most popular opponent for the month of July were again Sierra Leone - best opponent for 51 teams. However, Aruba (46) and Iceland (44) were not far behind.

Best teams to play against in September

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these results, Antigua and Barbuda, and Guyana expected to climb more than 50 spots, while Guatemala and Dominican Republic are expected to climb more than 40. Macedonia, Venezuela and Luxembourg will drop around 30 places.

In the top 50, Cape Verde Islands, Bulgaria and Wales would be the best movers, while Venezuela, Sierra Leone and Slovakia would be the worst movers.

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the September 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Quite a busy month - 138 matches.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

36 - Namibia
31 - Rwanda
29 - Wales
25 - Saudi Arabia
24 - Cuba
21 - Tahiti
18 - Israel
15 - Benin
13 - Antigua and Barbuda
10 - Equatorial Guinea
10 - New Caledonia

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Signed on as FIFA ranking consultant

On Monday, I signed a fancy 4-page contract to provide consultancy services to a football association. Since the contract also has a confidentiality clause, I'm not allowed to go into details about this association. I shall call it Amplistan.

The negotiations took 1167 days since they first contacted me until the signing of the contract. Mind you, there have been wars shorter than these negotiations. I had lost all hope at one point, but God sometimes answers prayers when you least expect Him to.

AFCON qualifiers: CAF not following their own regulations

Equatorial Guinea used an ineligible player (Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta) in both legs of the AFCON 2015 first round against Mauritania.

Mauritania won the first leg 1-0 and lost the return leg 3-0.

Looking at article 36 of the AFCON regulations (2012 version):

Friday, August 8, 2014

FIFA Ranking: August 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 August.

Two issues regarding AFCON 2015 qualifiers - I haven't been able to find the regulations and got no reply from CAF.

1. Equatorial Guinea were disqualified for using an ineligible player, but the matches against Mauritania were not awarded 3 - 0.
2. Seychelles withdrew, but there's no decision regarding the result of their home match vs. Sierra Leone. If the match is awarded 3 - 0 to Sierra Leone, they will climb to 43rd.