World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

2018 FIFA World Cup simulations

100000 simulations. For the impact of the draw, see here.

First the average group stage points.

2018 World Cup: Impact of the draw

Simulations using the actual draw can be found here.

I've simulated 100000 times the draw and the whole tournament.

Here's how the draw changed the probabilities of advancing out of the group stage:

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (6 October 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the third match day (5 September 2017). Kyrgyz Republic bounce back and replace Myanmar in the list of teams most likely to qualify.

FIFA Ranking: October 2017 preview

Had no time last week, so here it goes. 104 matches. Very important ranking for the World Cup, as FIFA will use it to determine all the pots, not just Pot 1.

My apologies to fans of teams already eliminated, but we'll focus first on those teams still in the running.

FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October ranking

It finally happened. I must admit I wasn't expecting this, but it's good news. Especially since this will increase the number of FAs looking to improve their ranking :) Perhaps it will finally get FIFA to change the ranking algorithm.

I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.

2018 World Cup simulations (8 September 2017)

It seems while I was climbing to 1750m in the mountains, all sort of things happened. One of the most amusing was this call to arms from one of the blog readers. Ed was kind enough to answer in detail and here's the usual update of the sims.

I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.

UEFA Nations League seeding simulations (8 September 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations. The coefficient will not include the play-offs.

Hats off to Finland for playing fair!

FIFA Ranking: September 2017 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 September. 127 matches left.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (14 July 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the second match day (13 June 2017). Great improvement for Myanmar and Philippines. On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Singapore stumbled and lost momentum.

FIFA Ranking: August 2017 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 10 August. Of course, the CONCACAF Gold Cup is the big event this month and there are some CHAN qualifiers and the final matches of the 2017 COSAFA Cup.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.

2017 CONCACAF Gold Cup simulations

The Gold Cup kicks off today.

The usual 10000 simulations.

2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.

Previous simulations (31 March 2017).

UEFA Nations League seeding simulations

The usual 10000 simulations.

The usual update without sims can be found here.

League D

FIFA Ranking: July 2017 preview

Overdue, I know (so I've been told by e-mail). With deadlines at work and end of school year events for my kids, there's little time for the blog these days.

Anyway, FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 July.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (21 April 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the first match day. Great improvement for India.

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.

FIFA Ranking: April 2017 preview

Next update: 31 March 2017

125 matches left [Sim results at the end].

Brazil will be the next No. 1 if they win against Uruguay (away) and Paraguay (at home). However, the odds are not in their favor. Argentina (home vs. Chile, away to Bolivia) were 1st in 57.95% of the 10000 simulations I ran, with Brazil with only 42.05%. Of course, Elo ratings don't take into account high altitude.