Showing posts with label CONCACAF Nations League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CONCACAF Nations League. Show all posts

Friday, March 21, 2025

2024/2025 CONCACAF Nations League 10000 Simulations (update 21 March 2025)

Quite an upset overnight, but also not that surprising given recent performance, the USA will be competing for 3rd/4th place while Panama will be contesting the final against Mexico. But that's exactly what the FIFA ranking shows, it shows a more historical ranking rather than current form which is more short term.

Third/Fourth Place

United States 65.12%
Canada        34.88%

Winner/Runner Up

Mexico        60.84%
Panama        39.16%



Friday, January 17, 2025

2024/2025 CONCACAF Nations League 10000 Simulations

So for the CONCACAF Nations League it's a bit simpler, as there's just semis, a 3rd/4th place playoff and a final. No real surprises here, but again, neither the United States nor Mexico are in top form recently, so certainly chances for Canada and even Panama to upset the balance. Here's the numbers:

Fourth Place

Panama        35.28%
Canada        33.09%
Mexico        17.77%
United States 13.86%

Third Place

Panama        28.58%
Canada        28.00%
United States 22.28%
Mexico        21.14%

Final

United States 63.86%
Mexico        61.09%
Canada        38.91%
Panama        36.14%

Runner-up

Mexico        30.62%
United States 26.41%
Canada        22.17%
Panama        20.80%

Winner

United States 37.45%
Mexico        30.47%
Canada        16.74%
Panama        15.34%


Saturday, August 3, 2024

CONCACAF Nations League 2024/25: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the first simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CONCACAF Nations League 2024-2025, played until March next year.


The CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 is the fourth edition of the CNL and will have the same format as the previous edition, played only a year ago:

- league A consists of 16 teams, with the top 4 (according to the CONCACAF ranking of March 2024: Mexico, USA, Panama and Canada) receiving a bye to the quarterfinals. The other 12 teams were drawn on May 6th in two groups of 6, where they will play 4 matches (2 home and 2 away) in a pre-determined schedule against some other group opponents. The numbers one and two from each group play the home-and-away quarter finals against one of the four top dogs in November. The quarter final winners qualify for the Final Four, to be played in March 2025.

- league B consists of 16 teams in 4 groups of 4. They will play a double round-robin against all other group opponents in the September, October and November windows.

- league C consists of the remaining 9 CONCACAF members. They will play in 3 groups of 3 in a double round-robin, with 3 match days in each of the September and October windows.

The matches per FIFA window in leagues B and C will be played in centralized venues to minimize the chance of travelling problems in the Caribbean region.

Monday, August 28, 2023

CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24: 10.000 simulations (August 2023)

The upcoming September window starts a new edition of the CONCACAF Nations League. It will be the third edition and follows only one year after the previous one. It is used as qualification tournament for the Copa America 2024, the South American continental final tournament, which is in 2024 co-organized by CONCACAF (and hosted in the USA) and will be expanded to 16 teams, the 10 from CONMEBOL and 6 CONCACAF teams. It is still not clear if this is a one-off co-operation or the first of a real Americas Cup. Time will tell.

Friday, May 27, 2022

CONCACAF Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

The second edition of the CONCACAF Nations League starts in this June window. All 41 CONCACAF-members participate and are drawn in three leagues:

  • league A has 4 groups of 3 teams
  • league B has 4 groups of 4 teams
  • league C has 1 group of 4 teams and 3 groups of 3 teams

There are 4 match days in June and 2 in March next year. The four group winners in league A qualify for the Final Four in June 2023.

There is also promotion/relegation between the leagues: the winners of the groups in leagues B and C are promoted while the numbers last in each group in league A and B relegate. The draw of the groups was in April and seeded based on the CONCACAF ranking.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:

  • a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
  • the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
  • a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
  • the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.

This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2019)

Match days three and four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.
See here for more information about the qualification process for the Gold Cup 2021 and the results after MD2.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2019)

The first two matchdays for the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

The day before the first matches would be played CONCACAF announced that this tournament will also serve as qualification for the Gold Cup 2021. But hey, you don't hear me complaining, at least they announced it :)

Sunday, July 21, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (July 2019)

Let's focus on the CONCACAF Nations League 2020. 

This competition will be played for the first time on six matchdays this Autumn, with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals and a final) in March next year. The composition of the leagues was determined in a qualification phase. The groups within the leagues were drawn last March.


There are 3 leagues, A - C. Each league consists of 4 groups. League A has three teams per group, league B has four teams per group. League C has 1 group of four and 3 groups of three teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away.

Sunday, November 25, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (20 October)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the second match day.
Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (24 November)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the third match day. The match British Virgin Islands - Bonaire was postponed to a later date.

Simulation results after the first and second match day can be found respectively here and here.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (15 September)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the first match day (match Martinique - British Virgin Islands still to be played).
Simulation results from before the start of qualification can be found here.

Monday, July 23, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

In this qualifying phase 34 teams each play four matches, two at home and two away. For the draw of these matches the teams were placed in 2 pots of 8 teams and 2 pots of 9 teams, according to a new ranking for CONCACAF teams. This ranking is also established in an elo-like way (like the new FIFA ranking) but so poorly documented that I didn't even tried to calculate it.