CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24: 10.000 simulations (August 2023)

The upcoming September window starts a new edition of the CONCACAF Nations League. It will be the third edition and follows only one year after the previous one. It is used as qualification tournament for the Copa America 2024, the South American continental final tournament, which is in 2024 co-organized by CONCACAF (and hosted in the USA) and will be expanded to 16 teams, the 10 from CONMEBOL and 6 CONCACAF teams. It is still not clear if this is a one-off co-operation or the first of a real Americas Cup. Time will tell.

The structure of the Nations League is altered from 2022: League A now consists of 16 teams from which the top 4 according to the CONCACAF March 2023 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Canada) get a bye to the new quarter finals. The other 12 teams are grouped in two groups of 6 and play 2 home and 2 away matches against 4 selected opponents from the group in the September and October windows. After that the top 2 from each group also qualifies for the new home-and-away quarter finals which will be played in November.

The winners of the quarter finals qualify for the Final Four and for the Copa America 2024, the 4 losers play in two one-off 'play-in' matches in March 2024 for the remaining 2 CONCACAF berths in the Copa. The Final Four is also played in March 2024.

League B remains the same: 16 teams in 4 groups of 4 teams. League C consists of the remaining 9 teams in 3 groups of 3. These leagues play their last 2 match days in November.

Promotion and relegation between the leagues is reinstated in this edition: the numbers 5 and 6 in the two league A groups relegate to league B, while the 4 league B group winners get promoted to league A. 

The 4 league B group numbers 4 relegate to league C while the 3 league C group winners plus the best number 2 get promoted to league B.

The composition of the quarter finals follows strict rules:

4th seed - best ranked group winner

3rd seed - next ranked group winner

2nd seed - best ranked group number 2

1st seed - next ranked group number 2

The order of the 4 seeds will be based on the CONCACAF November 2023 ranking. As I'm not able to calculate the CONCACAF ranking on the fly during a simulation, I will assume for the following simulations that the order of the seeds remains the same as in the latest July ranking: so Mexico as 1st seed, USA next, then Canada and 4th seed is Costa Rica.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):

group A-1
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Panama	56,37	18,57	11,94	6,70	4,25	2,17	1,90
El Salvador	12,91	25,27	19,69	17,22	13,87	11,04	3,27
Guatemala	11,08	14,16	15,60	20,54	21,18	17,44	3,79
Trinidad and Tobago	6,49	16,19	21,73	17,62	18,33	19,64	3,84
Martinique	7,79	16,02	16,44	21,04	18,81	19,90	3,87
Curacao	5,36	9,79	14,60	16,88	23,56	29,81	4,33
group A-2
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Jamaica	38,61	21,60	18,66	13,05	5,38	2,70	2,33
Honduras	22,80	32,15	24,36	12,46	6,55	1,68	2,53
Haiti	22,11	17,95	19,10	21,64	12,93	6,27	3,04
Suriname	12,10	17,88	20,49	22,63	14,92	11,98	3,46
Cuba	3,72	8,54	11,33	17,76	31,80	26,85	4,46
Grenada	0,66	1,88	6,06	12,46	28,42	50,52	5,18
group B-1
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Guadeloupe	63,73	25,81	9,58	0,88	1,48
St. Kitts and Nevis	24,35	41,42	29,36	4,87	2,15
St. Lucia	11,74	30,07	48,73	9,46	2,56
St. Maarten	0,18	2,70	12,33	84,79	3,82
group B-2
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Nicaragua	56,01	29,84	10,86	3,29	1,61
Dominican Republic	32,60	40,60	18,98	7,82	2,02
Barbados	8,04	19,42	42,41	30,13	2,95
Montserrat	3,35	10,14	27,75	58,76	3,42
group B-3
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
French Guyana	64,24	23,96	8,91	2,89	1,50
Bermuda	21,32	37,72	23,83	17,13	2,37
Belize	7,95	19,78	35,39	36,88	3,01
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	6,49	18,54	31,87	43,10	3,12
group B-4
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Guyana	39,82	32,01	22,02	6,15	1,95
Antigua and Barbuda	34,39	33,24	23,93	8,44	2,06
Puerto Rico	23,64	28,18	36,11	12,07	2,37
Bahamas	2,15	6,57	17,94	73,34	3,62
group C-1
team	1st	2nd	3rd	avg
Bonaire	63,28	28,75	7,97	1,45
St. Martin	30,58	50,83	18,59	1,88
Anguilla	6,14	20,42	73,44	2,67
group C-2
team	1st	2nd	3rd	avg
Aruba	67,07	27,26	5,67	1,39
Cayman Islands	27,38	53,21	19,41	1,92
US Virgin Islands	5,55	19,53	74,92	2,69
group C-3
team	1st	2nd	3rd	avg
Dominica	76,70	19,98	3,32	1,27
Turks and Caicos Islands	19,30	58,75	21,95	2,03
British Virgin Islands	4,00	21,27	74,73	2,71

The probabilities for the teams in the league A groups to qualify for the quarter finals by position in the final ranking for both group winners and for both group numbers two. Also their total probability to qualify for the quarters is given in the last column:

team	best nr 1	other nr 1	best nr 2	other nr 2	total
Panama	31,13	25,24	8,50	10,07	74,94
Jamaica	21,29	17,32	12,63	8,97	60,21
Honduras	12,89	9,91	21,67	10,48	54,95
Haiti	10,77	11,34	9,98	7,97	40,06
El Salvador	5,88	7,03	12,35	12,92	38,18
Suriname	6,55	5,55	11,31	6,57	29,98
Guatemala	3,70	7,38	4,36	9,80	25,24
Martinique	2,27	5,52	4,88	11,14	23,81
Trinidad and Tobago	2,69	3,80	7,48	8,71	22,68
Curacao	1,59	3,77	2,89	6,90	15,15
Cuba	1,04	2,68	3,33	5,21	12,26
Grenada	0,20	0,46	0,62	1,26	2,54
placed in quarter final against	CRC	CAN	USA	MEX

The probabilities to win in the quarter finals (and qualify for the Final Four and the Copa America 2024). Also in square brackets the probability to win a quarter final, given a team qualified from the league A group stage:

team	QF-CRC	QF-CAN	QF-USA	QF-MEX	total
Mexico	0,00	0,00	0,00	81,50	81,50
USA	0,00	0,00	75,67	0,00	75,67
Canada	0,00	62,10	0,00	0,00	62,10
Costa Rica	47,31	0,00	0,00	0,00	47,31
Panama	21,14	13,57	3,65	3,60	41,96	[55,99]
Jamaica	12,13	7,68	4,05	2,43	26,29	[43,66]
Honduras	5,57	3,03	5,30	1,48	15,38	[27,99]
Haiti	5,24	4,17	2,90	1,73	14,04	[35,05]
El Salvador	2,56	2,39	3,15	2,49	10,59	[27,74]
Guatemala	1,65	2,58	1,15	2,08	7,46	[29,56]
Martinique	0,91	1,34	0,87	1,74	4,86	[20,41]
Suriname	1,75	1,08	1,18	0,66	4,67	[15,58]
Trinidad and Tobago	0,91	1,01	1,34	1,13	4,39	[19,36]
Curacao	0,54	0,73	0,38	0,78	2,43	[16,04]
Cuba	0,28	0,32	0,33	0,37	1,30	[10,60]
Grenada	0,01	0,00	0,03	0,01	0,05	[1,97]

The probabilities to qualify for the Copa America 2024, directly as a winner of a quarter final or as a winner of a 'play-in' in March. in square brackets the probability to win a play-in, given a team lost in the quarter finals. In the last column the total probability to qualify for the Copa America.

team	from QF	from play-in		total
Mexico	81,50	17,29	[93,46]	98,79
USA	75,67	21,20	[87,14]	96,87
Canada	62,10	28,40	[74,93]	90,50
Costa Rica	47,31	35,79	[67,93]	83,10
Panama	41,96	21,73	[65,89]	63,69
Jamaica	26,29	17,94	[52,89]	44,23
Honduras	15,38	13,88	[35,08]	29,26
Haiti	14,04	11,07	[42,54]	25,11
El Salvador	10,59	8,47	[30,70]	19,06
Guatemala	7,46	6,63	[37,29]	14,09
Martinique	4,86	4,74	[25,01]	9,60
Suriname	4,67	4,18	[16,52]	8,85
Trinidad and Tobago	4,39	4,27	[23,35]	8,66
Curacao	2,43	2,53	[19,89]	4,96
Cuba	1,30	1,67	[15,24]	2,97
Grenada	0,05	0,21	[8,43]	0,26

And for the title in the Final Four in March 2024:

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mexico	31,72	42,20	3,26	4,32
USA	27,95	13,58	29,05	5,09
Canada	22,67	17,12	17,94	4,37
Panama	8,78	7,51	10,81	14,86
Costa Rica	3,62	7,18	17,55	18,96
Jamaica	2,45	4,61	6,83	12,40
Haiti	0,74	1,95	3,46	7,89
Honduras	0,73	2,19	3,57	8,89
El Salvador	0,52	1,30	2,64	6,13
Guatemala	0,36	1,00	1,75	4,35
Martinique	0,16	0,43	0,90	3,37
Trinidad and Tobago	0,14	0,38	0,88	2,99
Suriname	0,09	0,25	0,85	3,48
Curacao	0,04	0,22	0,37	1,80
Cuba	0,03	0,08	0,14	1,05
Grenada	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,05

Finally the promotion/relegation probabilities:

Promotion
From league B to A	as group winner
French Guyana	64,24
Guadeloupe	63,73
Nicaragua	56,01
Guyana	39,82
Antigua and Barbuda	34,39
Dominican Republic	32,60
St. Kitts and Nevis	24,35
Puerto Rico	23,64
Bermuda	21,32
St. Lucia	11,74
Barbados	8,04
Belize	7,95
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	6,49
Montserrat	3,35
Bahamas	2,15
St. Maarten	0,18
From league C to B	as group winner or best nr 2
Dominica	86,45
Aruba	79,18
Bonaire	74,87
St. Martin	48,20
Cayman Islands	46,10
Turks and Caicos Islands	38,57
Anguilla	10,01
US Virgin Islands	8,96
British Virgin Islands	7,66
Relegation
From league A to B	as group nrs 5 or 6
Grenada	78,94
Cuba	58,65
Curacao	53,37
Martinique	38,71
Guatemala	38,62
Trinidad and Tobago	37,97
Suriname	26,90
El Salvador	24,91
Haiti	19,20
Honduras	8,23
Jamaica	8,08
Panama	6,42
From league B to C	as group nr 4
St. Maarten	84,79
Bahamas	73,34
Montserrat	58,76
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	43,10
Belize	36,88
Barbados	30,13
Bermuda	17,13
Puerto Rico	12,07
St. Lucia	9,46
Antigua and Barbuda	8,44
Dominican Republic	7,82
Guyana	6,15
St. Kitts and Nevis	4,87
Nicaragua	3,29
French Guyana	2,89
Guadeloupe	0,88

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.