Football Rankings: September 2025

Saturday, September 20, 2025

2026 World Cup Seeding Pots (update 20 September 2025)

So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like. There might of course be minor changes from friendly matches that will still be planned for October/November 2025.

NOTE 1: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted 23 October 2025 ranking. That ranking follows on from the 18 September 2025 ranking.

Pos Country Points +/- +/-

1 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92

2 France 1882.22 0 7.01

3 Argentina 1872.43 0 0.00

4 England 1834.23 0 9.87

5 Portugal 1797.38 0 6.88

6 Brazil 1768.93 0 0.00

7 Netherlands 1768.67 0 8.71

8 Belgium 1755.18 0 2.93

9 Croatia 1729.04 0 6.43

10 Italy 1727.15 0 10.00

11 Germany 1724.20 0 11.30

12 Morocco 1710.22 0 0.00

13 Colombia 1697.47 0 1.66

14 Mexico 1693.44 0 3.01

15 United States 1681.62 0 3.23

16 Switzerland 1679.16 1 13.08

17 Uruguay 1677.72 -1 0.16

18 Denmark 1654.26 2 12.96

19 Senegal 1650.61 0 0.00

20 Japan 1646.15 -1 2.25

21 Iran 1626.66 0 0.00

22 Austria 1621.88 0 9.86

23 South Korea 1596.47 0 2.62

24 Ecuador 1583.90 0 2.09

25 Australia 1579.11 0 0.00

26 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01

27 Canada 1558.93 1 4.39

28 Ukraine 1557.43 -1 2.07

29 Panama 1552.98 0 12.44

30 Norway 1535.74 0 -4.10

31 Serbia 1530.36 0 -2.15

31 Wales 1530.07 5 11.01

33 Egypt 1525.66 0 0.00

34 Russia 1524.71 1 3.76

35 Poland 1519.42 -2 -4.42

36 Costa Rica 1513.24 4 17.19

37 Sweden 1511.61 -3 -10.14

38 Algeria 1510.26 0 0.00

39 Hungary 1508.72 3 16.31

40 Slovakia 1506.37 -2 -1.50

41 Czechia 1499.23 -2 2.23

42 Nigeria 1495.14 0 0.00

43 Greece 1491.79 4 6.58

44 Côte d'Ivoire 1491.78 0 0.00

45 Tunisia 1491.23 0 0.00

46 Paraguay 1483.20 0 -6.40

47 Scotland 1482.85 -4 -9.08

48 Qatar 1473.80 0 0.00

49 Slovenia 1471.29 3 8.63

50 Peru 1469.50 -1 0.18

51 Romania 1468.07 3 11.45

52 Cameroon 1466.47 0 0.00

53 South Africa 1459.90 0 0.00

54 Venezuela 1459.14 -3 -4.13

55 Mali 1455.54 0 0.00

56 Uzbekistan 1450.31 0 0.00

57 Chile 1437.72 0 -3.94

58 Iraq 1428.69 0 0.00

59 Saudi Arabia 1427.37 0 0.00

60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1421.32 0 0.00

61 Jamaica 1410.14 3 18.32

62 Burkina Faso 1397.65 0 0.00

63 Jordan 1395.54 0 0.00

64 Ireland 1386.51 -3 -14.67

65 North Macedonia 1383.79 0 -7.06

66 Honduras 1380.61 0 -3.41

67 United Arab Emirates 1379.94 0 0.00

68 Cape Verde Islands 1376.37 0 0.00

69 Georgia 1372.88 1 6.95

70 Albania 1372.00 -1 0.33

71 Finland 1366.61 0 6.33

72 Ghana 1356.67 0 0.00

73 Northern Ireland 1351.36 1 9.69

74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1337.21 -1 -16.58

75 Israel 1332.82 2 8.25

76 Iceland 1332.74 -1 0.40

77 Gabon 1329.91 0 0.00

78 Montenegro 1321.53 1 -1.24

79 Bolivia 1319.68 -1 -4.88

80 Guinea 1317.72 0 0.00

81 Oman 1300.11 0 0.00

82 Zambia 1293.32 0 0.00

83 Uganda 1287.75 0 0.00

84 Syria 1276.36 1 3.65

85 New Zealand 1271.59 -1 -4.01

86 Haiti 1269.46 1 1.42

87 Curaçao 1267.63 -1 -3.48

88 Angola 1267.19 0 0.00

88 Bahrain 1267.16 0 0.00

90 Equatorial Guinea 1266.34 0 0.00

91 El Salvador 1263.16 1 2.59

92 Benin 1259.38 0 0.00

93 China 1249.06 0 0.00

94 Bulgaria 1247.19 -3 -15.88

95 Guatemala 1244.57 1 3.36

96 Thailand 1239.84 1 4.47

97 Kosovo 1235.90 -2 -11.57

98 Palestine 1230.55 0 0.00

99 Mozambique 1227.53 0 0.00

100 Trinidad and Tobago 1227.52 0 -1.79

101 Tajikistan 1224.93 1 4.72

102 Luxembourg 1212.80 -4 -19.48

103 Belarus 1202.09 0 -10.46

104 Kyrgyzstan 1201.22 0 0.00

105 Armenia 1196.18 -1 -8.52

106 Comoros 1192.40 0 0.00

107 Lebanon 1190.64 3 5.95

108 Vietnam 1189.51 3 5.89

109 Tanzania 1188.70 0 0.00

110 Namibia 1187.36 0 0.00

111 Kenya 1185.55 0 0.00

112 Madagascar 1181.22 0 0.00

113 Mauritania 1179.20 0 0.00

114 Libya 1178.00 0 0.00

115 Malaysia 1168.41 1 6.88

116 Gambia 1162.12 0 0.00

117 Sudan 1157.11 0 0.00

118 Kazakhstan 1153.42 0 -2.30

119 Togo 1152.85 0 0.00

120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00

121 Niger 1149.78 0 0.00

122 Sierra Leone 1149.10 0 0.00

123 Indonesia 1144.73 0 0.00

124 India 1140.46 3 6.89

125 Zimbabwe 1138.19 0 0.00

126 Azerbaijan 1132.77 -2 -9.48

127 Guinea-Bissau 1132.73 0 0.00

128 Malawi 1130.34 0 0.00

128 Estonia 1130.27 -2 -4.44

130 Cyprus 1121.85 0 -3.26

131 Rwanda 1118.42 0 0.00

131 Congo 1118.36 0 0.00

133 Turkmenistan 1110.99 2 8.90

134 Kuwait 1100.38 0 0.00

135 Surinam 1092.68 -2 -18.38

136 Nicaragua 1091.82 -2 -15.20

137 Philippines 1090.95 3 9.51

138 Latvia 1090.25 -1 -6.44

139 Central African Republic 1083.57 0 0.00

140 Faroe Islands 1080.61 -1 -1.97

141 Hong Kong 1075.84 2 10.80

142 Dominican Republic 1073.54 0 0.00

143 Botswana 1072.06 0 0.00

144 Burundi 1060.22 0 0.00

145 Lithuania 1051.43 0 -4.14

146 Yemen 1048.83 4 8.70

147 Liberia 1048.03 0 0.00

148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00

149 New Caledonia 1042.62 0 0.00

150 St. Kitts and Nevis 1041.53 0 0.00

151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00

152 Fiji 1035.11 0 0.00

153 Ethiopia 1030.76 0 0.00

154 Lesotho 1020.14 0 0.00

154 Puerto Rico 1020.07 0 0.00

156 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00

157 Afghanistan 1015.06 0 -0.60

158 Moldova 999.05 0 -7.15

159 Eswatini 998.40 0 0.00

160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00

161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00

162 Myanmar 991.35 1 0.60

163 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00

164 Singapore 982.77 -4 -10.80

165 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00

166 Grenada 978.40 0 0.00

167 Malta 971.78 -1 -7.48

168 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00

169 South Sudan 966.20 0 0.00

170 Bermuda 964.06 -2 -13.04

171 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 962.43 0 0.00

172 Maldives 945.02 0 -9.51

173 Taiwan 938.74 0 -8.90

174 Andorra 937.26 0 -5.67

175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00

176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00

177 Chad 913.87 0 0.00

178 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00

179 Belize 904.45 0 0.00

180 Mauritius 902.78 0 0.00

181 Nepal 902.44 -2 -6.88

182 Dominica 901.37 0 0.00

183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00

184 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00

185 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00

186 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00

187 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95

188 Bangladesh 874.67 -3 -6.89

189 Laos 871.16 -1 -5.89

190 Bhutan 867.86 -1 -8.70

191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00

192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00

193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00

194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00

195 Djibouti 847.89 0 0.00

196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.17 0 0.00

197 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00

198 Timor Leste 835.55 -1 -4.72

199 Sri Lanka 833.70 -1 -4.47

200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00

201 Somalia 818.59 0 0.00

202 Gibraltar 818.42 -2 -4.94

203 Pakistan 808.98 0 -3.65

204 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00

205 Seychelles 805.33 0 0.00

206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00

207 Liechtenstein 799.97 0 -2.13

208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00

209 British Virgin Islands 768.50 0 0.00

210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00

211 San Marino 725.89 0 -1.88

From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:

1) United States (certain, hosts)

2) Mexico (certain, hosts)

3) Canada (certain, hosts)

4) Spain (UEFA Group E Winner)

5) France (UEFA Group D Winner)

6) Argentina (CONMEBOL #1)

7) England (UEFA Group K Winner)

8) Portugal (UEFA Group F Winner)

9) Brazil (CONMEBOL #5)

10) Netherlands (UEFA Group G Winner)

11) Belgium (UEFA Group J Winner)

13) Croatia (UEFA Group L Winner)

Second seeds would then be:

13) Germany (UEFA Group A Winner)

14) Morocco (CAF Group E Winner)

15) Colombia (CONMEBOL #3)

16) Switzerland (UEFA Group B Winner)

17) Uruguay (CONMEBOL #4)

18) Denmark (UEFA Group C Winner)

19) Senegal (CAF Group B Winner)

20) Japan (AFC Group C Winner)

21) Iran (AFC Group A Winner)

22) Austria (UEFA Group H Winner)

23) South Korea (AFC Group B Winner)

24) Ecuador (CONMEBOL #2)

Third seeds would then be:

25) Australia (AFC Group C Runner Up)

26) Panama (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)

27) Norway (UEFA Group I Winner)

28) Egypt (CAF Group A Winner)

29) Algeria (CAF Group G Winner)

30) Côte d'Ivoire (CAF Group F Winner)

31) Tunisia (CAF Group H Winner)

32) Paraguay (CONMEBOL #6)

33) Qatar (if they qualify as AFC Fourth Round Group Winner)

34) South Africa (CAF Group C Winner)

35) Uzbekistan (AFC Group A Runner Up)

36) Saudi Arabia (if they qualify as AFC Fourth Round Group Winner)

Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):

- Jordan (AFC Group B Runner Up)

- Cape Verde Islands (CAF Group D Winner)

- Ghana (CAF Group I Winner)

- New Zealand (Oceania Winner)

- 4 x UEFA Playoff Winners (assuming the highest ranked teams of the November 2025 ranking: Italy? Türkiye? Ukraine? Serbia? With Wales, Poland, Sweden and Hungary being the next highest ranked teams)

- 2 x CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner (assuming the highest ranked teams, two from: Jamaica? Honduras? Costa Rica? El Salvador? Curaçao? Haiti? Surinam?)

- 0 x AFC qualifier (assuming Qatar and Saudi Arabia win their respective groups and will therefore be seeded in the third group above, otherwise from: Iraq? United Arab Emirates? Oman? Indonesia?)

- 2 x Intercontinental Playoff Winners

Notable changes are of course that Croatia are now predicted to make it as one of the top seeds, with Germany dropping to pot 2, Ecuador reaching pot 2 and Australia dropping to pot 3.

2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 20 September 2025)

Qualifying Groups

Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.

In Group A Germany still wins the group the most times, but it's percentage is down a whopping 20% following their loss to Slovakia, while the latter's percentage to win the group has now doubled.

In Group B Switzerland's chances to qualify directly has increased significantly with Sweden's loss away to Kosovo.

In Group C both Denmark and Scotland's chances are now higher with Greece's percentage dropping after their home loss to Denmark.

In Group D France is now almost certain to take the group with Iceland and Ukraine vying for the playoff spot.

In Group E Spain is obviously favorite now following their big win away to Türkiye, with the latter now likely destined for the playoffs.

In Group F Portugal is now odds on favorite to take the automatic qualifying spot, with Hungary likely to end up in the playoffs.

In Group G the changes are minimal with the Netherlands expected to win their remaining games except maybe away to Poland, but with a superior goal difference they could even afford to lose that match in November.

In Group H Austria's chances to take the automatic qualifying spot have increased significantly with Bosnia and Herzegovina like to qualify for the playoffs. Romania should also make the playoffs via the Nations League system.

In Group I Norway just keeps on winning so that's increased their chances, with Italy not being able to afford to slip up and not only requiring a win in their final game at home to Norway, but having to score big in all their remaining matches to not be destined for the playoffs once more.

In Group J Belgium are still favorite to take the automatic qualifying spot, with Wales looking to make the playoffs either as runner up or via the Nations League system.

In Group K it should be clear sailing for England with Serbia likely to take the playoff spot.

In Group L Croatia's chances are increasing to take the automatic qualifying spot, with Czechia likely destined for the playoffs.

NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.

Group A

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Germany 49.57% 40.56% 8.52% 1.35% 50.43% 73.42% 26.58%

Slovakia 46.69% 43.09% 8.97% 1.25% 43.09% 55.75% 44.25%

Northern Ireland 2.94% 13.29% 65.34% 18.43% 95.62% 14.24% 85.76%

Luxembourg 0.80% 3.06% 17.17% 78.97% 3.06% 1.18% 98.82%

Group B

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Switzerland 82.76% 12.63% 3.96% 0.65% 12.63% 87.66% 12.34%

Sweden 9.14% 34.13% 34.56% 22.17% 90.83% 36.30% 63.70%

Slovenia 5.23% 32.71% 31.85% 30.21% 32.71% 13.57% 86.43%

Kosovo 2.87% 20.53% 29.63% 46.97% 20.53% 4.58% 95.42%

Group C

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Denmark 60.68% 28.72% 9.70% 0.90% 28.85% 71.82% 28.18%

Scotland 23.11% 38.57% 35.83% 2.49% 38.95% 32.34% 67.66%

Greece 15.95% 31.49% 48.46% 4.10% 31.49% 25.58% 74.42%

Belarus 0.26% 1.22% 6.01% 92.51% 1.22% 0.46% 99.54%

Group D

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

France 97.10% 2.79% 0.09% 0.02% 2.90% 98.78% 1.22%

Iceland 1.47% 42.57% 45.25% 10.71% 42.57% 6.74% 93.27%

Ukraine 1.41% 52.47% 39.79% 6.33% 52.47% 19.07% 80.93%

Azerbaijan 0.02% 2.17% 14.87% 82.94% 2.17% 0.11% 99.89%

Group E

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Spain 94.84% 4.65% 0.50% 0.01% 5.16% 98.12% 1.88%

Türkiye 3.98% 68.23% 22.03% 5.76% 68.23% 27.21% 72.79%

Georgia 1.12% 22.05% 60.71% 16.12% 22.05% 4.53% 95.47%

Bulgaria 0.06% 5.07% 16.76% 78.11% 5.07% 0.46% 99.54%

Group F

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Portugal 95.08% 4.32% 0.53% 0.07% 4.92% 97.38% 2.62%

Hungary 3.05% 55.14% 25.18% 16.63% 55.38% 19.25% 80.75%

Ireland 1.27% 20.05% 40.87% 37.81% 20.05% 5.17% 94.83%

Armenia 0.60% 20.49% 33.42% 45.49% 20.49% 1.88% 98.12%

Group G

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Netherlands 90.50% 8.72% 0.78% 0.00% 0.00% 8.73% 95.03% 4.97%

Poland 9.16% 82.09% 8.73% 0.02% 0.00% 82.09% 32.15% 67.85%

Finland 0.34% 9.15% 89.08% 1.34% 0.09% 9.15% 1.74% 98.26%

Lithuania 0.00% 0.04% 1.18% 80.09% 18.69% 0.04% 0.00% 100.00%

Malta 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 18.55% 81.22% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Group H

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Austria 88.98% 10.19% 0.83% 0.00% 0.00% 10.19% 92.32% 7.68%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 10.34% 67.15% 21.99% 0.52% 0.00% 67.15% 18.57% 81.43%

Romania 0.68% 22.58% 73.85% 2.89% 0.00% 99.32% 20.98% 79.02%

Cyprus 0.00% 0.08% 3.33% 96.18% 0.41% 0.08% 0.01% 99.99%

San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 99.59% 15.19% 0.03% 99.97%

Group I

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Norway 76.38% 23.21% 0.41% 0.00% 0.00% 23.62% 83.14% 16.86%

Italy 23.13% 70.64% 6.19% 0.04% 0.00% 70.69% 57.86% 42.14%

Israel 0.49% 6.15% 93.12% 0.24% 0.00% 6.28% 1.27% 98.73%

Estonia 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 90.14% 9.58% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Moldova 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.58% 90.42% 59.18% 0.99% 99.01%

Group J

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Belgium 84.35% 12.52% 3.13% 0.00% 0.00% 12.58% 91.00% 9.00%

Wales 9.60% 51.38% 38.99% 0.03% 0.00% 90.40% 35.14% 64.86%

North Macedonia 6.05% 36.10% 57.31% 0.54% 0.00% 93.93% 19.53% 80.47%

Kazakhstan 0.00% 0.00% 0.57% 97.77% 1.66% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.66% 98.34% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Group K

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

England 98.63% 1.35% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 1.37% 99.43% 0.57%

Serbia 1.22% 70.63% 26.39% 1.75% 0.01% 70.75% 23.11% 76.89%

Albania 0.15% 27.72% 70.09% 2.04% 0.00% 27.72% 4.23% 95.77%

Latvia 0.00% 0.30% 3.31% 88.38% 8.01% 0.30% 0.02% 99.98%

Andorra 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 7.83% 91.98% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Group L

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual

Croatia 88.07% 11.87% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 11.87% 93.47% 6.53%

Czechia 11.93% 87.70% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 88.07% 34.38% 65.62%

Montenegro 0.00% 0.32% 74.07% 25.61% 0.00% 0.32% 0.00% 100.00%

Faroe Islands 0.00% 0.11% 25.50% 74.37% 0.02% 0.11% 0.01% 99.99%

Gibraltar 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 99.98% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Playoffs

Likelihood

The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs. So the chances of Sweden, Poland, Türkiye, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany and Iceland are up significantly. San Marino, Finland, Luxembourg and Montenegro's chances to reach the playoffs are now much lower.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round. And then in brackets are the old percentage from June 2025, and finally the change since last time).

                      FRnk  Grp  Playoff     Prev   Change
Romania                 51    H   99.32%  (92.91%   +6.41%)
Northern Ireland        72    A   95.62%  (88.57%   +7.05%)
North Macedonia         63    J   93.93%  (91.40%   +2.53%)
Sweden                  32    B   90.83%  (68.88%  +21.95%)
Wales                   30    J   90.40%  (86.40%   +4.00%)
Czechia                 39    L   88.07%  (84.89%   +3.18%)
Poland                  36    G   82.09%  (56.00%  +26.09%)
Serbia                  34    K   70.75%  (68.80%   +1.95%)
Italy                   10    I   70.69%  (60.06%  +10.63%)
Türkiye                 27    E   68.23%  (48.21%  +20.02%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina  73    H   67.15%  (45.20%  +21.95%)
Moldova                156    I   59.18%  (66.37%   -7.19%)
Hungary                 41    F   55.38%  (44.21%  +11.17%)
Ukraine                 28    D   52.47%  (56.12%   -3.65%)
Germany                 12    A   50.43%  (31.25%  +19.18%)
Slovakia                42    A   43.09%  (42.62%   +0.47%)
Iceland                 74    D   42.57%  (24.27%  +18.03%)
Scotland                43    C   38.95%  (33.35%   +5.60%)
Slovenia                50    B   32.71%  (28.29%   +4.42%)
Greece                  40    C   31.49%  (32.46%   -0.97%)
Denmark                 20    C   28.85%  (29.38%   -0.53%)
Albania                 66    K   27.72%  (19.46%   +8.26%)
Norway                  31    I   23.62%  (31.67%   -8.05%)
Georgia                 68    E   22.05%  (22.22%   -0.17%)
Kosovo                  91    B   20.53%   (8.19%  +12.34%)
Armenia                103    F   20.49%   (9.66%  +10.83%)
Ireland                 61    F   20.05%  (26.51%   -6.46%)
San Marino             210    H   15.19%  (26.69%  -11.50%)
Switzerland             17    B   12.63%  (30.16%  -17.53%)
Belgium                  8    J   12.58%  (16.11%   -3.53%)
Croatia                  9    L   11.87%  (14.77%   -2.90%)
Austria                 22    H   10.19%  (19.50%   -9.31%)
Finland                 71    G    9.15%  (34.86%  -25.71%)
Netherlands              7    G    8.73%   (8.71%   +0.02%)
Israel                  76    I    6.28%  (10.18%   -3.90%)
Spain                    1    E    5.16%  (18.96%  -13.80%)
Bulgaria                86    E    5.07%  (14.63%   -9.56%)
Portugal                 5    F    4.92%  (28.13%  -23.21%)
Luxembourg              96    A    3.06%  (19.22%  -16.16%)
France                   2    D    2.90%  (15.60%  -12.70%)
Azerbaijan             124    D    2.17%   (6.24%   -4.07%)
England                  4    K    1.37%   (8.76%   -7.39%)
Belarus                100    C    1.22%   (7.00%   -5.78%)
Montenegro              80    L    0.32%  (15.03%  -14.71%)
Latvia                 137    K    0.30%   (3.68%   -3.38%)
Faroe Islands          136    L    0.11%   (0.73%   -0.62%)
Cyprus                 128    H    0.08%   (1.48%   -1.40%)
Lithuania              145    G    0.04%   (0.56%   -0.52%)
Andorra                174    K    0.00%   (0.03%   -0.03%)
Estonia                129    I    0.00%   (0.14%   -0.14%)
Gibraltar              200    L    0.00%   (0.00%    0.00%)
Kazakhstan             118    J    0.00%   (1.44%   -1.44%)
Liechtenstein          204    J    0.00%   (0.00%    0.00%)
Malta                  166    G    0.00%   (0.04%   -0.04%)

Results

The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Los-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.

NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                       FRnk Grp  Win-Fin  Lose-Fi  Win-Sem  Los-Sem  Playoff
Spain                     1   E   63.57%   17.83%   81.40%   18.60%    5.16%
England                   4   K   58.39%   18.25%   76.64%   23.36%    1.37%
France                    2   D   57.93%   20.69%   78.62%   21.38%    2.90%
Belgium                   8   J   52.86%   23.69%   76.55%   23.45%   12.58%
Netherlands               7   G   51.89%   24.74%   76.63%   23.37%    8.73%
Italy                    10   I   49.13%   25.51%   74.64%   25.36%   70.69%
Germany                  12   A   47.29%   24.27%   71.56%   28.44%   50.43%
Portugal                  5   F   46.75%   25.81%   72.56%   27.44%    4.92%
Croatia                   9   L   45.49%   27.97%   73.46%   26.54%   11.87%
Switzerland              17   B   38.80%   29.14%   67.93%   32.07%   12.63%
Denmark                  20   C   38.61%   29.01%   67.63%   32.37%   28.85%
Türkiye                  27   E   34.05%   30.02%   64.06%   35.94%   68.23%
Ukraine                  28   D   33.66%   31.48%   65.14%   34.86%   52.47%
Austria                  22   H   32.78%   28.26%   61.04%   38.96%   10.19%
Serbia                   34   K   30.94%   31.60%   62.54%   37.46%   70.75%
Greece                   40   C   30.58%   30.52%   61.10%   38.90%   31.49%
Sweden                   32   B   29.90%   26.58%   56.48%   43.52%   90.83%
Hungary                  41   F   29.25%   29.97%   59.23%   40.77%   55.38%
Norway                   31   I   28.62%   29.42%   58.04%   41.96%   23.62%
Wales                    30   J   28.25%   27.40%   55.65%   44.35%   90.40%
Poland                   36   G   28.01%   29.95%   57.96%   42.04%   82.09%
Slovenia                 50   B   25.50%   27.45%   52.95%   47.05%   32.71%
Czechia                  39   L   25.49%   28.98%   54.47%   45.53%   88.07%
Scotland                 43   C   23.70%   27.27%   50.96%   49.04%   38.95%
Slovakia                 42   A   21.03%   25.46%   46.48%   53.52%   43.09%
Romania                  51   H   20.44%   23.72%   44.16%   55.84%   99.32%
Ireland                  61   F   19.45%   22.09%   41.55%   58.45%   20.05%
Belarus                 100   C   16.39%   18.03%   34.43%   65.57%    1.22%
Georgia                  68   E   15.46%   22.40%   37.87%   62.13%   22.05%
Finland                  71   G   15.30%   21.53%   36.83%   63.17%    9.15%
Albania                  66   K   14.72%   24.13%   38.85%   61.15%   27.72%
North Macedonia          63   J   14.35%   21.93%   36.28%   63.72%   93.93%
Cyprus                  128   H   12.50%    0.00%   12.50%   87.50%    0.08%
Israel                   76   I   12.42%   21.34%   33.76%   66.24%    6.28%
Luxembourg               96   A   12.42%   19.61%   32.03%   67.97%    3.06%
Iceland                  74   D   12.36%   20.41%   32.77%   67.23%   42.57%
Bosnia and Herzegovina   73   H   12.26%   20.01%   32.27%   67.73%   67.15%
Northern Ireland         72   A   11.82%   20.92%   32.73%   67.27%   95.62%
Faroe Islands           136   L    9.09%   27.27%   36.36%   63.64%    0.11%
Kosovo                   91   B    8.33%   17.58%   25.91%   74.09%   20.53%
Bulgaria                 86   E    7.89%   18.93%   26.82%   73.18%    5.07%
Latvia                  137   K    6.67%   13.33%   20.00%   80.00%    0.30%
Armenia                 103   F    6.25%   16.50%   22.74%   77.26%   20.49%
Azerbaijan              124   D    4.15%   14.29%   18.43%   81.57%    2.17%
Moldova                 156   I    1.67%   10.05%   11.73%   88.27%   59.18%
San Marino              210   H    0.20%   2.30%     2.50%   97.50%   15.19%
Lithuania               145   G    0.00%   25.00%   25.00%   75.00%    0.04%
Montenegro               80   L    0.00%   21.88%   21.88%   78.13%    0.32%
Malta                   166   G      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Estonia                 129   I      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Kazakhstan              118   J      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Liechtenstein           204   J      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Andorra                 174   K      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Gibraltar               200   L      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%Not sure what happened to Malta in this simulation run, out of 4 times that they qualified, they won the final once and lost the final once, which is very surprising...
Overall Qualifying
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify. In brackets are previous percentages from June 2025, and the change since then).
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                      FRnk Grp     Qual  NotQual     Prev   Change
England                  4   K   99.43%    0.57%  (95.94%   +3.49%)
France                   2   D   98.78%    1.22%  (93.83%   +4.95%)
Spain                    1   E   98.12%    1.88%  (91.98%   +6.14%)
Portugal                 5   F   97.38%    2.62%  (85.56%  +11.82%)
Netherlands              7   G   95.03%    4.97%  (94.15%   +0.88%)
Croatia                  9   L   93.47%    6.53%  (88.42%   +5.05%)
Austria                 22   H   92.32%    7.68%  (78.60%  +13.72%)
Belgium                  8   J   91.00%    9.00%  (86.64%   +4.36%)
Switzerland             17   B   87.66%   12.34%  (60.57%  +27.09%)
Norway                  31   I   83.14%   16.86%  (75.33%   +7.81%)
Germany                 12   A   73.42%   26.58%  (82.76%   -9.34%)
Denmark                 20   C   71.82%   28.18%  (61.85%   +9.97%)
Italy                   10   I   57.86%   42.14%  (61.23%   -3.37%)
Slovakia                42   A   55.75%   44.25%  (33.17%  +22.58%)
Sweden                  32   B   36.30%   63.70%  (50.57%  -14.27%)
Wales                   30   J   35.14%   64.86%  (38.85%   -3.71%)
Czechia                 39   L   34.38%   65.62%  (35.05%   -0.67%)
Scotland                43   C   32.34%   67.66%  (30.19%   +2.15%)
Poland                  36   G   32.15%   67.85%  (25.15%   +7.00%)
Türkiye                 27   E   27.21%   72.79%  (30.05%   -2.84%)
Greece                  40   C   25.58%   74.42%  (33.72%   -8.14%)
Serbia                  34   K   23.11%   76.89%  (28.85%   -5.74%)
Romania                 51   H   20.98%   79.02%  (28.29%   -7.31%)
North Macedonia         63   J   19.53%   80.47%  (18.76%   +0.77%)
Hungary                 41   F   19.25%   80.75%  (32.36%  -13.11%)
Ukraine                 28   D   19.07%   80.93%  (30.61%  -11.54%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina  73   H   18.57%   81.43%  (25.48%   -6.91%)
Northern Ireland        72   A   14.24%   85.76%  (13.71%   +0.53%)
Slovenia                50   B   13.57%   86.43%  (24.00%  -10.43%)
Iceland                 74   D    6.73%   93.27%   (6.50%   +0.23%)
Ireland                 61   F    5.17%   94.83%  (12.83%   -7.66%)
Kosovo                  91   B    4.58%   95.42%   (3.47%   +1.11%)
Georgia                 68   E    4.53%   95.47%   (6.80%   -2.27%)
Albania                 66   K    4.23%   95.77%   (3.40%   +0.83%)
Armenia                103   F    1.88%   98.12%   (2.21%   -0.33%)
Finland                 71   G    1.74%   98.26%   (6.45%   -4.71%)
Israel                  76   I    1.27%   98.73%   (2.36%   -1.09%)
Luxembourg              96   A    1.18%   98.82%   (7.30%   -6.12%)
Moldova                156   I    0.99%   99.01%   (1.25%   -0.26%)
Belarus                100   C    0.46%   99.54%   (2.68%   -2.22%)
Bulgaria                86   E    0.46%   99.54%   (3.47%   -3.01%)
Azerbaijan             124   D    0.11%   99.89%   (0.56%   -0.45%)
San Marino             210   H    0.03%   99.97%   (0.02%   +0.01%)
Latvia                 137   K    0.02%   99.98%   (0.15%   -0.13%)
Cyprus                 128   H    0.01%   99.99%   (0.26%   -0.25%)
Faroe Islands          136   L    0.01%   99.99%   (0.10%   -0.09%)
Andorra                174   K    0.00%  100.00%   (0.00%   +0.00%)
Estonia                129   I    0.00%  100.00%   (0.02%   -0.02%)
Gibraltar              200   L    0.00%  100.00%   (0.00%    0.00%)
Kazakhstan             118   J    0.00%  100.00%   (0.24%   -0.24%)
Liechtenstein          204   J    0.00%  100.00%   (0.00%    0.00%)
Lithuania              145   G    0.00%  100.00%   (0.03%   -0.03%)
Malta                  166   G    0.00%  100.00%   (0.01%   -0.01%)
Montenegro              80   L    0.00%  100.00%   (4.22%   -4.22%)

2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF 10000 Simulations (update 20 September 2025)

Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round. In Group A, Panama is still favored to qualify for the finals, but their chances have dropped given their results to date, with El Salvador and Surinam's chances having increased, the latter most significantly. In Group B Jamaica's chances have increased quite a bit, and Curaçao's position in second place has strengthened. In Group C Costa Rica's chances have dropped substantially with Honduras going the other way.

Group A

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Panama 56.65% 24.62% 13.20% 5.53%

El Salvador 20.55% 25.61% 31.38% 22.46%

Surinam 14.01% 28.39% 29.38% 28.22%

Guatamala 8.79% 21.38% 26.04% 43.79%

Group B

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Jamaica 73.02% 21.66% 5.18% 0.14%

Curaçao 22.80% 50.50% 24.19% 2.51%

Trinidad and Tobago 3.99% 24.56% 54.06% 17.39%

Bermuda 0.19% 3.28% 16.57% 79.96%

Group C

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Honduras 43.00% 31.71% 19.80% 5.49%

Costa Rica 40.69% 31.43% 22.26% 5.62%

Haiti 13.81% 27.72% 35.82% 22.65%

Nicaragua 2.50% 9.14% 22.12% 66.24%

So it still looks like Panama and Jamaica will qualify for the finals, but it's too close to call between Honduras and Costa Rica. The race for the Intercontinental playoffs looks to be between El Salvador/Surinam, Curaçao and Honduras/Costa Rica.

2026 World Cup Qualifying CAF 10000 Simulations (update 20 September 2025)

Here's the simulations for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying for CAF. With just two match windows left only Morocco and Tunisia have qualified, so there's a lot to play for. For Cape Verde Islands fans there's certainly a lot of nail-biting left to do, but it looks like this time will be their best chance ever, having been close before.

Group A

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Egypt 98.79% 1.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Burkina Faso 1.21% 93.29% 5.45% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%

Sierra Leone 0.00% 5.47% 82.07% 12.41% 0.05% 0.00%

Guinea-Bissau 0.00% 0.03% 12.17% 79.04% 8.76% 0.00%

Ethiopia 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 8.50% 90.66% 0.53%

Djibouti 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 99.47%

Group B

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Senegal 91.58% 8.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Democratic Rep of Congo 8.41% 87.52% 4.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Sudan 0.01% 4.06% 93.15% 2.75% 0.03% 0.00%

Togo 0.00% 0.00% 2.44% 74.46% 20.90% 2.20%

Mauritania 0.00% 0.00% 0.34% 20.14% 67.37% 12.15%

South Sudan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.65% 11.70% 85.65%

Group C

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

South Africa 96.84% 3.06% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Benin 2.28% 48.12% 38.03% 11.57% 0.00% 0.00%

Nigeria 0.80% 45.56% 44.02% 8.86% 0.76% 0.00%

Rwanda 0.08% 3.26% 17.67% 77.61% 1.38% 0.00%

Lesotho 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 1.96% 57.18% 40.68%

Zimbabwe 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 40.68% 59.32%

Group D

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Cape Verde Islands 88.87% 8.44% 2.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Cameroon 8.22% 78.82% 12.22% 0.74% 0.00% 0.00%

Libya 2.91% 12.45% 78.60% 6.04% 0.00% 0.00%

Angola 0.00% 0.29% 6.49% 92.82% 0.40% 0.00%

Mauritius 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 85.50% 14.10%

Eswatini 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.10% 85.90%

Group E

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth

Morocco 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Tanzania 0.00% 41.18% 34.18% 20.54% 4.10%

Niger 0.00% 31.26% 33.65% 22.52% 12.57%

Zambia 0.00% 19.98% 21.25% 36.42% 22.35%

Congo 0.00% 7.58% 10.92% 20.52% 60.98%

Group F

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth

Côte d'Ivoire 83.82% 16.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Gabon 16.18% 83.82% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Gambia 0.00% 0.00% 52.82% 36.85% 10.33% 0.00%

Burundi 0.00% 0.00% 27.20% 35.33% 37.47% 0.00%

Kenya 0.00% 0.00% 19.98% 27.82% 52.20% 0.00%

Seychelles 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Group G

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Algeria 97.43% 2.18% 0.39% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Uganda 1.79% 38.21% 49.80% 10.20% 0.00% 0.00%
Mozambique 0.78% 56.19% 34.42% 8.61% 0.00% 0.00%
Guinea 0.00% 3.35% 13.90% 65.43% 17.32% 0.00%
Botswana 0.00% 0.07% 1.49% 15.76% 82.68% 0.00%
Somalia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Group H

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Tunisia 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Namibia 0.00% 85.72% 13.43% 0.85% 0.00% 0.00%
Liberia 0.00% 6.84% 23.71% 37.18% 32.27% 0.00%
Equatorial Guinea 0.00% 4.73% 31.68% 27.58% 36.01% 0.00%
Malawi 0.00% 2.71% 31.18% 34.39% 31.72% 0.00%
São Tomé and Príncipe 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Group I

Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Ghana 91.79% 8.15% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Comoros 5.77% 28.05% 30.23% 35.95% 0.00% 0.00%
Madagascar 2.44% 44.75% 25.53% 27.28% 0.00% 0.00%
Mali 0.00% 19.05% 44.18% 36.77% 0.00% 0.00%
Central African Republic 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 97.33% 2.67%
Chad 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.67% 97.33%
So that all means that we'll likely see Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cape Verde Islands, Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria and Ghana join Morocco and Tunisia at the finals. For the runner up positions I don't have my software configured to work that out (yet) but Gabon are assured a place at least if they don't win their group. With Bolivia pipping Venezuela against the odds in South America I'm not going to say anything as there's too many combinations possible still.