2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.

Previous simulations (31 March 2017).

UEFA Nations League seeding simulations

The usual 10000 simulations.

The usual update without sims can be found here.

League D

FIFA Ranking: July 2017 preview

Overdue, I know (so I've been told by e-mail). With deadlines at work and end of school year events for my kids, there's little time for the blog these days.

Anyway, FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 July.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.

UEFA Nations League update (16 June 2017)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.