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Wednesday, March 27, 2024

FIFA ranking: April 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the April ranking next Thursday April 4th. I expect the cancelled Asian World Cup qualifier between Korea DPR and Japan in Pyongyang to be awarded 0:3 to Japan and to be included into this ranking.

With regard to the continental final tournaments this Summer the final qualification berths were divided as follows:

- Poland, Ukraine and debutant Georgia qualified for the EURO;

- Samoa qualified for the OFC Nations Cup;

- Costa Rica and debutant Canada qualified for the Copa America.

The US of A won for the third consecutive time the CONCACAF Nations League Final Four.

Saturday, March 9, 2024

FIFA ranking: April 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 4th. A very diverse offering of matches in the upcoming March window:

- match days 3 and 4 in the groups for AFC World Cup 2026 qualification;

- CONCACAF World Cup 2026 qualification starts with the stage 1 home-and-away play-offs between the 4 lowest ranked CONCACAF teams;

- the three qualification play-off paths for the EURO 2024 with two one-off semi finals and a final in each path;

- the two one-off qualification play-offs for the Copa America 2024, played in the USA;

- a three-team qualifier group for the OFC Nations Cup 2024, played in Tonga;

- qualification for the AFCON 2025 starts with preliminary play-offs between the eight lowest ranked African teams;

- the Final Four in the CONCACAF Nations League 2024, played in the USA;

- the two-legged play-off between Lithuania and Gibraltar, deciding which team remains in league C and which team relegates to league D of the UEFA Nations League 2024/25;

- lots of friendlies, both singularly scheduled and in tournament form, with the prototype of the new FIFA Series staged in 4 countries.

FIFA ranking: April 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 161 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including March 31st, used to calculate the April 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since February 12th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (March 2024)

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 only Asia continues their group stage in the upcoming March window. Africa and South America have a break until respectively June and September. 

North and Central America and the Caribbean will start their qualification campaign with a first stage this March, consisting of two home-and-away play-offs between the four lowest ranked teams. The two winners will progress to stage 2 and join the 28 teams who got a bye, in a group stage with a single round robin format, starting in June. The draw for the first two stages was staged last January with a seeding based on the December 2023 ranking.

Saturday, March 2, 2024

UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (March 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's the fifth and last in this series of simulation reports: Europe.

The UEFA EURO 2024 will be hosted by Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.

Qualified already are 21 teams (the host plus the group numbers one and two of ten qualification groups). The final 3 berths are determined this March in three play-off paths, in two one-off semi finals and a final per path. Compared to the EURO 2020 qualification play-offs league D no longer has it's own path, which I consider a logical thing to do.