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Saturday, February 24, 2024

Copa America 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number four in this series of simulation reports: North, Central and South America.


The Copa America 2024 was initially intended as the continental championship of South America, edition number 48 of this oldest continental championship in the football world. However, in January 2023 a new strategic partnership was signed between CONMEBOL and CONCACAF and with that came a second combined 'Copa of the Americas' (after the Copa America Centenario in 2016). Again 6 CONCACAF teams (besides the 10 CONMEBOL members) were able to qualify for the tournament. It will be hosted by the United States. It is yet unknown if this one is the first of a combined Americas Cup from now on.

Sunday, February 18, 2024

OFC Cup of Nations 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number three in this series of simulation reports: Oceania.


The OFC Cup of Nations 2024 is the first continental final tournament in 8 years. The 2020 edition was first postponed and later in 2021 completely cancelled because of the strict COVID-19 measures in the Pacific island area. New Zealand was appointed to host that version.


The 2024 version now is hosted in Vanuatu and will be played from 15 to 30 June 2024. A separate qualification stage in March is played in Tonga between the four lowest ranked OFC-nations in the December 2023 ranking. This to decide one team that qualifies for the group stage proper.

Of the 4 lowest ranked teams American Samoa withdrew, so a single round robin group stage is played between Samoa, Cook Islands and host Tonga.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

FIFA ranking: February 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the February ranking this Thursday February 15th. The Asian and African Cup of Nations, played last month in Qatar and Cote d'Ivoire respectively, both left their mark on this ranking.

The Asian Cup was won by host Qatar yesterday for a second consecutive time. In the final against Jordan they needed three penalties (all correctly given, according to people who saw the match) to win 3:1.

The African Cup (with a buck load of surprises throughout the month) will see the final tonight between host Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change in the ranking:


 

CIV

 

NGA

result

pts

pos

 

pts

pos

CIV win

1494,515

39

1522,195

28

CIV PSO win

1484,515

42

1522,195

28

NGA PSO win

1474,515

44

1530,298

27

NGA win

1472,618

45

1540,298

26


Elo predicts a draw after extra time with the host prevailing after a penalty shoot-out.

Saturday, January 6, 2024

FIFA ranking: February 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable February 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday February 15th. No upcoming international window, but instead two continental championships in Asia and Africa to be played until then. The Asian Cup of Nations 2023 and the African Cup of Nations 2023, both originally scheduled for last summer, will start next weekend. A large batch of preparatory friendlies is already underway.

FIFA ranking: February 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 151 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including February 11th, used to calculate the February 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 18th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

FIFA ranking: December 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish the December ranking next Thursday December 21st. This final preview contains 11 matches, out of 14 matches played since November 27th: the complete knock-out stage of the Pacific Games 2023 and one friendly. 

I expect both forfeited knock-out matches of the Cook Islands to be included. They apparently had to leave the Solomon Islands after the two matches in the group stage and didn't participate in the play-offs for the 5th place in the competition.


One other friendly Colombia - Mexico is scheduled for coming Saturday and it will be included also. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change:

 

COL

MEX

result

pts

pos

pts

pos

COL win

1655,29

14

1652,70

15

draw

1652,79

15

1655,20

14

MEX win

1650,29

15

1657,70

14


Elo predicts a Colombia win.

Saturday, December 9, 2023

Asian Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number two in this series of simulation reports: Asia.


The Asian Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Qatar. Just as with the World Cup last year the tournament couldn't be played in the Qatari Summer because it's much too hot there in that time of the year. So the continental showpiece had to be moved back to January 2024. That gave Qatar the opportunity to participate 'as guest' (or rather as the generous tournament sponsor who bought their berth) in the Gold Cup 2023 in the USA last July.