2026 World Cup Qualifying Rest of the World 10000 Simulations

So what can we expect for the remainder of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers as they stand now (see also the separate detailed post specifically for CONMEBOL).

AFC

For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the fourth round, and not to qualify.

Group A

Iran                  98.92%    1.08%    0.00%
Uzbekistan            67.96%   31.92%    0.12%
United Arab Emirates  27.82%   71.23%    0.95%
Qatar                  5.21%   85.13%    9.66%
Kyrgyzstan             0.09%    7.54%   92.37%
North Korea            0.00%    3.10%   96.90%

Group B

South Korea           97.77%    2.23%    0.00%
Iraq                  71.31%   28.26%    0.43%
Jordan                27.59%   69.22%    3.19%
Oman                   2.83%   66.93%   30.24%
Palestine              0.40%   20.28%   79.32%
Kuwait                 0.10%   13.08%   86.82%

Group C

South Korea          100.00%    0.00%    0.00%
Australia             59.43%   33.99%    6.58%
Saudi Arabia          16.14%   50.44%   33.42%
China                 10.87%   40.31%   48.82%
Bahrain                9.68%   46.95%   43.37%
Indonesia              3.88%   28.31%   67.81%

CAF

For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to be in contention to qualify for one of the four runner-up spots for the intercontinental playoffs (4 best runners-up, to be confirmed by CAF/FIFA following Eritrea's withdrawal), and not to qualify.

Group A

Egypt          90.58%    8.05%    1.37%
Burkina Faso    6.86%   56.36%   36.78%
Guinea Bissau   1.65%   20.86%   77.49%
Sierra Leone    0.79%   13.00%   86.21%
Ethiopia        0.11%    1.59%   98.30%
Djibouti        0.01%    0.14%   99.85%

Group B

Senegal        76.39%   18.02%    5.59%

DR Congo       15.76%   49.38%    5.37%

Sudan           7.68%   29.17%   63.15%

Togo            0.15%    2.55%   97.30%

Mauritania      0.02%    0.69%   99.29%

South Sudan     0.0%     0.19%   99.81%

Group C

South Africa   54.98%   24.62%   20.40%

Benin          18.39%   26.74%   54.87%

Nigeria        17.60%   28.05%   54.35%

Rwanda          6.99%   14.42%   78.59%

Lesotho         1.49%    3.82%   94.69%

Zimbabwe        0.55%    2.35%   97.10%

Group D

Cameroon       66.17%   22.06%   11.77%

Cape Verde     20.10%   36.76%   43.14%

Angola          9.20%   25.05%   65.75%

Libya           4.38%   15.49%   80.13%

Lesotho         0.15%    0.57%   99.28%

Zimbabwe        0.00%    0.38%   99.93%

Group E

Morocco        98.00%    1.78%    0.22%

Tanzania        1.43%   60.57%   38.00%

Niger           0.46%   16.08%   83.46%

Zambia          0.06%   14.09%   85.85%

Congo           0.05%    7.48%   92.47%

Eritrea         0.00%    0.00%  100.00%

Group F

Côte d’Ivoire  76.31%   20.42%    3.27%

Gabon          20.94%   58.86%   20.20%

Burundi         1.41%    7.64%   90.95%

Kenya           1.19%   10.56%   88.25%

Gambia          0.15%    2.49%   97.36%

Seychelles      0.00%    0.03%   99.97%

Group G

Algeria        71.61%   18.45%    9.94%

Mozambique     13.19%   32.19%   54.62%

Guinea          8.75%   27.23%   64.02%

Uganda          5.26%   17.55%   77.19%

Botswana        1.19%    4.55%   94.26%

Somalia         0.00%    0.03%   99.97%

Group H

Tunisia        77.30%   19.03%    3.67%

Equatorial G   19.57%   55.77%   24.66%

Malawi          1.57%   11.42%   87.01%

Namibia         1.28%   11.76%   86.96%

Liberia         0.28%    1.99%   97.73%

Sâo Tomé and P  0.00%    0.03%   99.97%

Group I

Ghana          50.03%   25.50%   24.47%

Mali           21.17%   29.57%   49.26%

Comoros        19.82%   25.40%   54.78%

Madagascar      7.99%   16.08%   75.93%

Central Afr R   0.98%    3.45%   95.97%

Chad            0.01%    0.00%   99.99%

CONCACAF

We cannot say very much yet about eventual qualifiers yet as there's still one round to go after this before those are determined, but here's likelihood of countries that will make the next round from where group winners will qualify for the finals, and the likelihood of not making it to that round.

Group A

Honduras           98.82%    1.18%

Cayman Islands     42.06%   57.94%

Cuba               31.96%   68.04%

Bermuda            18.03%   81.97%

Antigua and Barb    9.13%   90.87%

Group B

Costa Rica         99.25%    0.75%

Trinidad and Tob   66.99%   33.01%

St. Kitts and Nv   28.43%   71.57%

Grenada             5.23%   94.77%

Bahamas             0.10%   99.90%

Group C

Haiti              97.20%    2.80%

Curaçao            96.22%    3.78%

St. Lucia           4.42%   95.58%

Aruba               1.99%   98.01%

Barbados            0.17%   99.83%

Group D

Panama             98.79%    1.21%

Nicaragua          82.33%   17.67%

Guyana             18.86%   81.14%

Montserrat          0.02%   99.98%

Belize              0.00%  100.00%

Group E

Jamaica            95.31%    4.69%

Guatemala          84.88%   15.12%

Dominic Rep        19.81%   80.19%

Dominica            0.00%  100.00%

Br Virgin Isl       0.00%  100.00%

Group F

El Salvador        76.29%   23.71%

Surinam            72.86%   27.14%

Puerto Rico        49.53%   50.47%

St. Vincent & G     1.07%   98.93%

Anguilla            0.25%   99.75%

CONMEBOL

See separate earlier post, but repeated here in the same format as the others. Again, this shows the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs, and not to qualify.

Argentina     100.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Uruguay        99.56%   0.42%   0.44%   

Brazil         99.14%   0.77%   0.86%

Colombia       98.88%   1.01%   1.12%

Ecuador        95.99%   3.56%   4.01%

Paraguay       76.95%  17.24%  23.05%

Venezuela      16.55%  36.82%  83.45%

Bolivia         7.64%  21.24%  92.36%

Chile           3.19%   9.81%  96.81%

Peru            2.10%   9.13%  97.90%

OFC

For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs, and not to qualify.

New Zealand     51.85%  19.32%  28.83%
New Caledonia   17.64%  34.21%  48.15%
Tahiti          15.71%  32.44%  70.26%
Fiji            15.45%  14.03%  70.52%

UEFA

I've only simulated groups so far where all teams are known so far below. While I have predicted the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League quarter finals in another post, I think the numbers will differ depending on which nation will eventually qualify. So I'll only predict those groups after the matches in March 2025. Again, for each country I show the likelihood to quality directly, to qualify for the playoffs, and not to qualify.

Group B*

Switzerland      48.69%   29.56%   21.75%

Sweden           30.26%   34.34%   35.40%

Slovenia         18.49%   27.89%   53.62%

Kosovo            2.56%    8.21%   89.23%

* group only starts in September 2025, so rankings can still change and therefore also these probabilities. Don't take this as definitive yet, it just gives an indication for now.

Group H

Austria          55.98%   29.90%   14.12%

Romania          32.63%   40.49%   26.88%

Bosnia and Herz   9.77%   22.70%   67.53%

Cyprus            1.62%    6.75%   91.63%

San Marino        0.00%    0.16%   99.84%

Group J

Belgium          70.68%   22.17%    7.15%

Wales            21.79%   48.89%   29.32%

North Macedonia   6.49%   22.87%   70.64%

Kazakhstan        1.04%    5.98%   92.98%

Liechtenstein     0.00%    0.09%   99.91%

Group K

England          82.20%   14.96%    2.84%

Serbia           13.35%   53.29%   33.36%

Albania           4.26%   27.82%   49.86%

Latvia            0.15%    3.06%   96.79%

Andorra           0.04%    0.87%   99.09%

The remainder of the groups are to be simulated once the groups are known following the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League quarter finals and playoffs. Right now there's still plenty of points for grabs, so it doesn't make much sense to predict those until after the matches in March 2025.

Qualifiers

So what does that mean in terms of qualifiers as they're currently predicted?

AFC (8)

1   Iran

2   Uzbekistan

3   South Korea

4   Iraq

5   Japan

6   Australia

7/8 Two from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and China (TBD).

CAF (9)

1  Egypt
2  Senegal
3  South Africa
4  Cameroon
5  Morocco
6  Côte d’Ivoire
7  Algeria
8  Tunisia
9  Ghana

CONCACAF (6)

1  United States

2  Mexico

3  Canada

4  Third Round Group A Winner (TBD)

5  Third Round Group B Winner (TBD)

6  Third Round Group C Winner (TBD)

CONMEBOL (6)

1  Argentina

2  Uruguay

3  Brazil

4  Colombia

5  Ecuador

6  Paraguay

OCEANIA (1)

1  New Zealand

UEFA (16)

1  Group A Winner (TBD)

2  Switzerland

3  Group C Winner (TBD)

4  Group D Winner (TBD)

5  Group E Winner (TBD)

6  Group F Winner (TBD)

7  Group G Winner (TBD)

8  Austria

9  Group I Winner (TBD)

10 Belgium

11 England

12 Group L Winner (TBD)

13 Playoff winner (TBD)

14 Playoff winner (TBD)

15 Playoff winner (TBD)

16 Playoff winner (TBD)

Intercontinental Playoffs (2)

AFC:        One from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and China.

CAF:        One from Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Benin, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Gabon, Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea and Mali.

CONCACAF 1: TBD

CONCACAF 2: TBD

CONMEBOL:   Venezuela

OFC:        New Caledonia

2026 World Cup Qualifying CONMEBOL 10000 Simulations

Probably the most interesting simulation for the qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is the CONMEBOL situation at the moment. So given that 60 of the 30 matches have been played so far, who is likely to qualify outright in one of the top 6 positions and which country is most likely to end up playing in the Intercontinental qualifying? Well, let's answer that straight away. With 10000 simulations, these are the predicted qualifiers if we trust the simulation based on current ranking points. A little word of warning though, this could still differ if any countries play any matches in between, but it is not likely to have any significant effect though... And before you ask, yes, this takes into account matches already played as well as Ecuador's 3 point deduction.

To qualify (directly), and likely position at end of qualifying

Argentina 100.00%

Uruguay    99.56%

Brazil     99.14%

Colombia   98.88%

Ecuador    95.99%

Paraguay   76.95%

-----------------

Venezuela  16.55% -> intercontinental playoffs

-----------------

Bolivia     7.64%

Chile       3.19%

Peru        2.10%

Not to qualify (directly)

Peru       97.90%

Chile      96.81%

Bolivia    92.36%

Venezuela  83.45%

Paraguay   23.05%

Ecuador     4.01%

Colombia    1.12%

Brazil      0.86%

Uruguay     0.44%

Argentina   0.00%

And here's the likelihood for finishing in a specific position:

First Place

Argentina  81.73%

Uruguay     9.60%

Brazil      3.87%

Colombia    3.43%

Ecuador     1.30%

Paraguay    0.07%

Venezuela   0.00%

Bolivia     0.00%

Chile       0.00%

Peru        0.00%

Second Place

Uruguay    36.80%

Brazil     22.54%

Colombia   18.90%

Argentina  11.91%

Ecuador     8.51%

Paraguay    1.31%

Venezuela   0.03%

Bolivia     0.00%

Chile       0.00%

Peru        0.00%

Third Place

Uruguay   26.97%

Brazil    25.86%

Colombia  24.88%

Ecuador   14.58%

Argentina  4.20%

Paraguay   3.31%

Venezuela  0.15%

Bolivia    0.05%

Chile      0.00%

Peru       0.00%

Fourth Place

Colombia   26.90%

Brazil     23.06%

Ecuador    23.45%

Uruguay    15.90%

Paraguay    7.97%

Argentina   1.68%

Venezuela   0.80%

Bolivia     0.17%

Chile       0.06%

Peru        0.01%

Fifth Place

Ecuador    33.60%

Colombia   19.04%

Brazil     18.11%

Paraguay   16.43%

Uruguay     8.23%

Venezuela   2.57%

Bolivia     1.03%

Argentina   0.46%

Chile       0.35%

Peru        0.18%

Sixth Place

Paraguay   47.86%

Ecuador    14.55%

Venezuela  13.00%

Bolivia     6.39%

Colombia    5.73%

Brazil      5.70%

Chile       2.78%

Uruguay     2.06%

Peru        1.91%

Argentina   0.02%

Seventh Place

Venezuela  36.82%

Bolivia    21.24%

Paraguay   17.24%

Chile       9.81%

Peru        9.13%

Ecuador     3.56%

Colombia    1.01%

Brazil      0.77%

Uruguay     0.42%

Argentina   0.00%

Eighth Place

Bolivia    30.03%

Venezuela  25.94%

Chile      22.02%

Peru       16.50%

Paraguay    4.90%

Ecuador     0.42%

Brazil      0.09%

Colombia    0.08%

Uruguay     0.02%

Argentina   0.00%

Ninth Place

Chile      31.93%

Peru       28.48%

Bolivia    24.75%

Venezuela  13.93%

Paraguay    0.85%

Colombia    0.03%

Ecuador     0.03%

Brazil      0.00%

Uruguay     0.00%

Argentina   0.00%

Tenth Place

Peru       43.79%

Chile      33.05%

Bolivia    16.34%

Venezuela   6.76%

Paraguay    0.06%

Ecuador     0.00%

Colombia    0.00%

Brazil      0.00%

Uruguay     0.00%

Argentina   0.00%

2024/2025 CONCACAF Nations League 10000 Simulations

So for the CONCACAF Nations League it's a bit simpler, as there's just semis, a 3rd/4th place playoff and a final. No real surprises here, but again, neither the United States nor Mexico are in top form recently, so certainly chances for Canada and even Panama to upset the balance. Here's the numbers:

4th

Panama        35.28%
Canada        33.09%

Mexico        17.77%

United States 13.86%

3rd

Panama        28.58%
Canada        28.00%

United States 22.28%

Mexico        21.14%

Final

United States 63.86%

Mexico        61.09%

Canada        38.91%

Panama        36.14%

Runner-up

Mexico        30.62%

United States 26.41%

Canada        22.17%

Panama        20.80%

Winner

United States 37.45%

Mexico        30.47%

Canada        16.74%

Panama        15.34%

2024/2025 UEFA Nations League 10000 Simulations

So hereby posting simulations for the UEFA Nations League quarter finals and subsequent finals tournament that will be hosted by the winner of the Italy v Germany match-up.

Note that these are based on software, not on opinion!

Quarter Final Losers

Croatia     67.20%

Denmark     65.58%

Netherlands 61.18%

Germany     54.37%

Italy       45.63%

Spain       38.82%

Portugal    34.42%

France      32.80%

Semi Finalist

France      67.20%

Portugal    65.58%

Spain       61.18%

Italy       54.37%

Germany     45.63%

Netherlands 38.82%

Denmark     34.42%

Croatia     32.80%

3rd/4th Place Playoff

Portugal    32.35%

France      31.52%

Spain       27.84%

Italy       25.13%

Germany     21.51%

Denmark     21.01%

Netherlands 20.76%

Croatia     19.88%

4th

Portugal    17.29%

Denmark     13.85%

Italy       13.00%

France      12.74%

Germany     11.74%

Spain       10.81%

Croatia     10.72%

Netherlands  9.85%

3rd

France      18.78%

Spain       17.03%

Portugal    15.06%

Italy       12.13%

Netherlands 10.91%

Germany      9.77%

Croatia      9.16%

Denmark      7.16%

Final

France      35.68%

Spain       33.34%

Portugal    33.23%

Italy       29.24%

Germany     24.12%

Netherlands 18.06%

Denmark     13.41%

Croatia     12.92%

Runner-up

Portugal    18.11%

Italy       15.38%

France      14.33%

Spain       13.87%

Germany     13.53%

Denmark      9.17%

Netherlands  8.47%

Croatia      7.14%

Winner

France      21.35%

Spain       19.47%

Portugal    15.12%

Italy       13.86%

Germany     10.59%

Netherlands  9.59%

Croatia      5.78%

Denmark      4.24%

The one thing I can say about these numbers is that the current/latest FIFA ranking obviously has a major influence because this uses its "win expectancy". For each round there's a slight variation in the order of the countries, but it is clear that France and Spain are the favorites in terms of these numbers. That is also the case with the bookmakers, although with them Germany has better odds but that's also because the FIFA rankings take time to change, so don't take into account trends that there may be. We all know that Germany is getting stronger lately, and that Belgium is dropping down the rankings for example.

So this represents the start of the simulations for me. I'll see if my current software also works for the CONCACAF Nations League and any other tournaments, although it doesn't make sense yet to run anything too far in the future because there might still be variance in the rankings, and not all matches are currently known.

Simulations and Penalties...

A belated Happy New Year to everyone. So as avid readers of this blog will know, I have been working on simulating tournaments or parts of them in the past few weeks and I'm very close to publishing this. I ran several 10000 iteration simulations given Ed's hints he gave on this page: http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/12/simulation-of-scheduled-football-matches.html over the weekend and the results are interesting. One thing that wasn't mentioned in the calculations but was mentioned in the comments below it was what to do with penalty shoot-outs where these are needed. Confusingly the conversation was between Ed and Ed. So before reading these comments I started thinking that I wanted to work out a better model than what I had assumed initially, that the higher-ranked team at the time of the match (working out changes in points for each match rather than using the FIFA ranking from before the tournament) would also win the match on penalties. This of course renders a winner, but certainly isn't totally representative because as "Ed" (not the Ed who ran the site) pointed out, this skews the results perhaps by as much as 5%. Actually, yesterday and today I analyzed all penalty shoot-out matches and came up with the following.

Considering all matches for which we have a FIFA ranking (from July 1993) which have required penalty shootouts, 508 to be exact, 53.5% were won by the higher-ranked team. This increases to 60.2% (123 matches) if we actually only look at matches following the 2018 FIFA ranking revamp which started using the more credible ELO ratings. While these numbers perhaps aren't enough to base statistical models on, they do show that there is a significant likelihood that the "better" team will win a penalty shootout. Ed (the one who ran the site) worked out that 56.9% were won by the better team.

I also wanted to look at whether removing friendly matches or matches played in very minor tournaments like the King's Cup or Carlsberg Cup made a difference. For this we have 355 matches with 53.0% being won by the higher-ranked team, and 56.9% being won by the higher-ranked team using only matches played following the 2018 revamp (102 matches).

Then I also looked at whether there was any difference between teams playing at home or when the matches was played at a neutral venue, because I think if we looked at that as well it would make for a more accurate model. So for neutral matches (including the friendly and minor tournaments matches), the numbers are 57.9% since 1993, and 62.0% since 2018.

The most interesting numbers came from the matches where a home team was involved. For these, the higher-ranked team only won 48.2% considering all matches, with the lower-ranked team therefore winning 51.8% of the time. That's not significant in itself, but differs quite substantially considering all or just the neutral matches. Perhaps this can be attributed to the added pressure of performing in front of your home crowd which makes missing even more significant. Those were numbers though for all matches since 1993, a time period when the rankings weren't considered to be very good, so we should take that with a pinch of salt. For the numbers for matches since the 2018 ranking took effect, the results are 56.8% for the higher-ranked home team, 43.2% for the lower-ranked home team.

So in the next few days I'll consider what I'll do for the matches requiring penalties, and then I should be able publish my first simulations, probably first for the UEFA Nations League quarter finals which I currently use to simulate with, and the CONCACAF Nations League.

So watch this space!

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Quarter Finals & Playoffs

So having spent some of my spare time improving my software to predict matches without needing to interact with it, here's the predictions for the UEFA Nations League Quarter Finals and playoff matches.

The "number" columns are:

• importance (25 for Quarter Finals, 15 for playoffs)
• win (1)/draw (X)/loss (2)
• expected result (FIFA)
• points for team 1 win (invert for loss points for team 2)
• points for team 1 draw (invert for draw points for team 2)
• points for team 1 loss (invert for win points for team 2)
• if applicable, points for penalty win team 1
• if applicable, points for penalty win team 2

League A

2025-03-20 NED - ESP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.40  15.00   2.50 -10.00

2025-03-23 ESP - NED UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.62   9.54  -2.96 -15.46   3.29   9.21

Predicted winner: Spain

2025-03-20 CRO - FRA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.34  16.40   3.90  -8.60

2025-03-23 FRA - CRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.67   8.23  -4.27 -16.77   1.98  10.52

Predicted Winner: France

2025-03-20 DEN - POR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.36  15.88   3.38  -9.12

2025-03-23 POR - DEN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.65   8.72  -3.78 -16.28   2.47  10.03

Predicted Winner: Portugal

2025-03-20 ITA - GER UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 X  0.53  11.84  -0.66 -13.16

2025-03-23 GER - ITA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 X  0.47  13.13   0.63 -11.87   6.88   5.62

Predicted Winner: Italy (on Penalties)

League A/B Promotion/Relegation

2025-03-20 TUR - HUN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.52   7.22  -0.28  -7.78

2025-03-23 HUN - TUR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.48   7.77   0.27  -7.23   4.02   3.48

Predicted Winner: Türkiye (on penalties) => Türkiye promoted to League A, Hungary relegated to League B

2025-03-20 UKR - BEL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.33  10.06   2.56  -4.94

2025-03-23 BEL - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.68   4.81  -2.69 -10.19   1.06   6.44

Predicted Winner: Belgium => Belgium remain in League A, Ukraine remain in League B

2025-03-20 AUT - SRB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.57   6.42  -1.08  -8.58

2025-03-23 SRB - AUT UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.42   8.76   1.26  -6.24   5.01   2.49

Predicted Winner: Austria => Austria promoted to League A, Serbia relegated to League B

2025-03-20 GRE - SCO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.51   7.36  -0.14  -7.64

2025-03-23 SCO - GRE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.49   7.63   0.13  -7.37   3.88   3.62

Predicted Winner: Greece (on penalties) => Greece promoted to League A, Scotland relegated to League B

League B/C Promotion/Relegation

2025-03-20 KVX - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.37   9.40   1.90  -5.60

2025-03-23 ISL - KVX UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.64   5.45  -2.05  -9.55   1.70   5.80

Predicted Winner: Iceland => Iceland promoted to League B, Kosovo relegated to League C

2025-03-20 BUL - IRL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.41   8.91   1.41  -6.09

2025-03-23 IRL - BUL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.61   5.92  -1.58  -9.08   2.17   5.33

Predicted Winner: Ireland => Ireland remain in League B, Bulgaria remain in League C

2025-03-20 ARM - GEO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.37   9.51   2.01  -5.49

2025-03-23 GEO - ARM UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.64   5.35  -2.15  -9.65   1.60   5.90

Predicted Winner: Georgia => Georgia remain in League B, Armenia remain in League C

2025-03-20 SVK - SVN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.53   7.04  -0.46  -7.96

2025-03-23 SVN - SVK UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.47   7.95   0.45  -7.05   4.20   3.30

Predicted Winner: Slovakia (on penalties) => Slovakia promoted to League B, Slovenia relegated to League C

So for the 2026 World Cup qualifying we should see Spain in Group E, Netherlands in Group G, Portugal in Group F, Denmark in Group C, France in Group D, Croatia in Group L, Italy in Group A and Germany in Group I.

FIFA Ranking - 2024 Review

So I thought with the 2026 World Cup UEFA qualifying draw scheduled for next week that it would be interesting to look at points and position changes comparing the last ranking of 2023 to the expected 2024 end of year ranking. What does it tell us in terms about teams that have gained and lost points, and therefore which are the teams to draw, and which are the teams to avoid for the top seeded teams.

The first thing to notice is Spain's rise. Of course, their 2023 ranking was somewhat low. They're one of the biggest gainers in terms on points, only beaten by Angola that gained more points (128 v 120).

Top 10 points gainers:

Pos Country                           +/- Prv +/-

 85 Angola                         128.43 115  30
  3 Spain                          120.63   8   5
 64 Jordan                         103.28  87  23
 58 Uzbekistan                      79.67  68  10
 56 Iraq                            76.88  63   7
124 Indonesia                       74.29 146  22
 10 Germany                         72.57  16   6
147 Fiji                            72.56 168  21
 89 New Zealand                     72.36 104  15
 57 South Africa                    71.79  66   9

Bottom 10 biggest losers (points):

Pos Country                           +/- Prv +/-

115 Vietnam                        -73.17  94 -21

127 India                          -67.18 102 -25

 77 Ghana                          -63.67  61 -16

148 Solomon Islands                -62.73 132 -16

161 Antigua and Barbuda            -61.69 142 -19

 52 Tunisia                        -58.81  28 -24

  8 Belgium                        -57.84   4  -4

128 Congo                          -47.15 112 -16

120 Guinea-Bissau                  -46.11 103 -17

 69 Finland                        -39.78  59 -10

Top 10 position gainers:

Pos Country                           +/- Prv +/-

 85 Angola                         128.43 115  30
 64 Jordan                         103.28  87  23
124 Indonesia                       74.29 146  22
147 Fiji                            72.56 168  21
 31 Canada                          62.20  48  17
 97 Thailand                        54.43 113  16
103 Comoros                         52.54 119  16
 89 New Zealand                     72.36 104  15
 96 Mozambique                      51.99 111  15
106 Tanzania                        44.14 120  14

Bottom 10 biggest losers (position):

Pos Country                           +/- Prv +/-

127 India                          -67.18 102 -25

 52 Tunisia                        -58.81  28 -24

115 Vietnam                        -73.17  94 -21

161 Antigua and Barbuda            -61.69 142 -19

120 Guinea-Bissau                  -46.11 103 -17

128 Congo                          -47.15 112 -16

148 Solomon Islands                -62.73 132 -16

 77 Ghana                          -63.67  61 -16

 90 China                          -33.11  79 -11

165 Taiwan                         -33.36 154 -11

So that certainly makes Angola the team of the year, but probably the biggest smiles are for Spain and Germany who look like they're in a strong position not only for the 2026 World Cup UEFA qualifiers but also for  2024/2025 Nations League. Looking over their shoulders will be Belgium who were the #1 team in February 2022 and have now dropped to #8 spot. Others to note are the US and Mexico, both down 4 positions just 1.5 years away from the start of the 2026 World Cup on home soil, while the other hosts Canada are rising fast, up 17 positions to #31. So Germany and Spain will be the teams to avoid for pot 2 teams as they look certain to top their groups. In terms of pot 2 teams, Türkiye and Wales will be the first teams pot 1 teams will hope to avoid based on points gained. Others include Greece, Romania and Slovakia.

In terms of the surprise teams of the year I would highlight Jordan and Comoros both of whom seem to be playing above their status at present.

Anyway, here's the complete list showing the 2024/2023 points, the difference in points, the position in 2023 ("Prv") and the difference in ranking.

Pos Country                        2024    2023       +/- Prv +/-

  1 Argentina                      1867.25 1855.20  12.05   1   0

  2 France                         1859.78 1845.44  14.34   2   0

  3 Spain                          1853.27 1732.64 120.63   8   5

  4 England                        1813.81 1800.05  13.76   3  -1

  5 Brazil                         1775.85 1784.09  -8.24   5   0

  6 Portugal                       1756.12 1745.06  11.06   6   0

  7 Netherlands                    1747.55 1745.48   2.07   6  -1

  8 Belgium                        1740.62 1798.46 -57.84   4  -4

  9 Italy                          1731.51 1718.82  12.69   9   0

 10 Germany                        1703.79 1631.22  72.57  16   6

 11 Uruguay                        1695.91 1666.00  29.91  11   0

 12 Colombia                       1694.45 1655.29  39.16  14   2

 13 Croatia                        1691.59 1717.57 -25.98  10  -3

 14 Morocco                        1688.18 1661.69  26.49  13  -1

 15 Japan                          1652.79 1620.19  32.60  17   2

 16 United States                  1645.48 1665.27 -19.79  12  -4

 17 Senegal                        1637.25 1594.31  42.94  20   3

 18 Iran                           1635.31 1565.08  70.23  21   3

 19 Mexico                         1627.40 1652.70 -25.30  15  -4

 20 Switzerland                    1625.16 1613.44  11.72  18  -2

 21 Denmark                        1611.49 1601.31  10.18  19  -2

 22 Austria                        1589.84 1546.10  43.74  24   2

 23 South Korea                    1585.45 1550.65  34.80  23   0

 24 Ecuador                        1560.13 1519.20  40.93  32   8

 25 Ukraine                        1554.94 1553.35   1.59  22  -3

 26 Australia                      1544.15 1539.22   4.93  25  -1

 27 Sweden                         1540.20 1530.19  10.01  26  -1

 28 Türkiye                        1537.24 1505.28  31.96  37   9

 29 Wales                          1534.39 1521.88  12.51  29   0

 30 Hungary                        1517.57 1525.13  -7.56  27  -3

 31 Canada                         1515.96 1453.76  62.20  48  17

 32 Serbia                         1514.28 1517.43  -3.15  34   2

 33 Egypt                          1513.48 1518.91  -5.43  33   0

 34 Russia                         1512.32 1498.84  13.48  38   4

 35 Poland                         1510.62 1520.24  -9.62  30  -5

 36 Panama                         1504.38 1475.62  28.76  41   5

 37 Algeria                        1495.85 1520.26 -24.41  30  -7

 38 Romania                        1494.20 1472.73  21.47  43   5

 39 Greece                         1489.88 1453.95  35.93  47   8

 40 Peru                           1488.42 1512.68 -24.26  35  -5

 41 Slovakia                       1486.19 1465.73  20.46  45   4

 42 Czechia                        1484.88 1494.04  -9.16  39  -3

 43 Norway                         1484.44 1472.36  12.08  44   1

 44 Nigeria                        1482.23 1474.44   7.79  42  -2

 45 Scotland                       1480.24 1506.89 -26.65  36  -9

 46 Côte d'Ivoire                  1478.47 1447.65  30.82  49   3

 47 Venezuela                      1475.71 1447.20  28.51  50   3

 48 Qatar                          1474.60 1407.30  67.30  58  10

 49 Cameroon                       1471.49 1463.06   8.43  46  -3

 50 Chile                          1469.44 1489.82 -20.38  40 -10

 51 Mali                           1466.10 1445.60  20.50  51   0

 52 Tunisia                        1464.42 1523.23 -58.81  28 -24

 53 Paraguay                       1458.26 1430.73  27.53  53   0

 54 Costa Rica                     1454.99 1437.57  17.42  52  -2

 55 Slovenia                       1454.25 1427.84  26.41  54  -1

 56 Iraq                           1442.86 1365.98  76.88  63   7

 57 South Africa                   1428.87 1357.08  71.79  66   9

 58 Uzbekistan                     1424.93 1345.26  79.67  68  10

 59 Saudi Arabia                   1406.56 1421.06 -14.50  56  -3

 60 Ireland                        1400.22 1399.60   0.62  60   0

 61 Democratic Republic of Congo   1395.77 1356.67  39.10  67   6

 62 Jamaica                        1390.85 1421.54 -30.69  55  -7

 63 United Arab Emirates           1385.57 1364.46  21.11  64   1

 64 Jordan                         1375.91 1272.63 103.28  87  23

 65 Albania                        1375.57 1382.69  -7.12  62  -3

 66 Burkina Faso                   1373.76 1411.01 -37.25  57  -9

 67 North Macedonia                1368.96 1362.17   6.79  65  -2

 68 Georgia                        1362.21 1312.45  49.76  77   9

 69 Finland                        1361.53 1401.31 -39.78  59 -10

 70 Iceland                        1355.10 1338.39  16.71  71   1

 71 Northern Ireland               1349.58 1333.17  16.41  72   1

 72 Cape Verde Islands             1328.51 1329.80  -1.29  73   1

 73 Montenegro                     1326.76 1342.64 -15.88  70  -3

 74 Bosnia and Herzegovina         1326.69 1343.32 -16.63  69  -5

 75 Honduras                       1325.93 1313.80  12.13  76   1

 76 Israel                         1322.25 1323.43  -1.18  75  -1

 77 Ghana                          1320.52 1384.19 -63.67  61 -16

 78 Guinea                         1311.88 1290.01  21.87  80   2

 79 Bolivia                        1308.58 1284.55  24.03  85   6

 80 Oman                           1307.90 1324.89 -16.99  74  -6

 81 Bahrain                        1305.52 1277.29  28.23  86   5

 82 Bulgaria                       1301.04 1289.90  11.14  81  -1

 83 El Salvador                    1300.81 1306.14  -5.33  78  -5

 84 Gabon                          1297.87 1289.52   8.35  82  -2

 85 Angola                         1296.48 1168.05 128.43 115  30

 86 Haiti                          1287.75 1262.50  25.25  89   3

 87 Zambia                         1279.24 1284.55  -5.31  84  -3

 88 Uganda                         1270.42 1245.08  25.34  91   3

 89 New Zealand                    1269.83 1197.47  72.36 104  15

 90 China                          1266.38 1299.49 -33.11  79 -11

 91 Curaçao                        1264.78 1262.48   2.30  89  -2

 92 Equatorial Guinea              1256.20 1268.43 -12.23  88  -4

 92 Luxembourg                     1256.42 1285.41 -28.99  83  -9

 94 Syria                          1251.31 1245.27   6.04  91  -3

 95 Benin                          1250.98 1225.10  25.88  97   2

 96 Mozambique                     1232.70 1180.71  51.99 111  15

 97 Thailand                       1231.18 1176.75  54.43 113  16

 98 Belarus                        1226.31 1232.80  -6.49  95  -3

 99 Kosovo                         1219.82 1202.77  17.05 101   2

100 Armenia                        1219.15 1237.15 -18.00  93  -7

101 Palestine                      1215.87 1217.60  -1.73  99  -2

102 Trinidad and Tobago            1214.81 1228.05 -13.24  96  -6

103 Comoros                        1208.99 1156.45  52.54 119  16

104 Tajikistan                     1203.08 1195.07   8.01 105   1

105 Guatemala                      1201.34 1189.98  11.36 108   3

106 Tanzania                       1199.33 1155.19  44.14 120  14

107 Kyrgyzstan                     1194.19 1224.14 -29.95  98  -9

108 Kenya                          1189.65 1181.92   7.73 110   2

109 Mauritania                     1183.15 1195.25 -12.10 105  -4

110 Kazakhstan                     1180.18 1215.16 -34.98 100 -10

111 Namibia                        1179.27 1168.38  10.89 115   4

112 Lebanon                        1170.33 1192.58 -22.25 107  -5

113 North Korea                    1166.70 1168.12  -1.42 115   2

114 Sudan                          1165.41 1128.74  36.67 128  14

115 Madagascar                     1162.02 1187.63 -25.61 109  -6

115 Vietnam                        1162.41 1235.58 -73.17  94 -21

117 Azerbaijan                     1158.70 1174.22 -15.52 114  -3

118 Libya                          1158.03 1155.23   2.80 120   2

119 Togo                           1152.18 1165.74 -13.56 118  -1

120 Guinea-Bissau                  1151.72 1197.83 -46.11 103 -17

121 Zimbabwe                       1151.06 1144.56   6.50 124   3

122 Niger                          1145.96 1127.75  18.21 129   7

123 Estonia                        1142.53 1149.70  -7.17 122  -1

124 Indonesia                      1138.30 1064.01  74.29 146  22

125 Rwanda                         1136.06 1107.04  29.02 133   8

126 Gambia                         1134.69 1140.06  -5.37 126   0

127 India                          1133.62 1200.80 -67.18 102 -25

128 Congo                          1132.65 1179.80 -47.15 112 -16

129 Sierra Leone                   1132.06 1138.53  -6.47 127  -2

130 Cyprus                         1131.32 1143.42 -12.10 125  -5

131 Malawi                         1129.31 1149.40 -20.09 123  -8

132 Malaysia                       1117.99 1122.87  -4.88 130  -2

133 Nicaragua                      1114.28 1104.26  10.02 134   1

134 Kuwait                         1107.15 1098.07   9.08 136   2

135 Central African Republic       1102.23 1121.34 -19.11 131  -4

136 Botswana                       1098.85 1064.50  34.35 145   9

137 Faroe Islands                  1096.88 1102.10  -5.22 135  -2

138 Surinam                        1096.60 1071.85  24.75 143   5

139 Burundi                        1087.26 1086.62   0.64 139   0

140 Latvia                         1084.11 1097.84 -13.73 137  -3

141 Dominican Republic             1083.36 1040.77  42.59 151  10

142 Lithuania                      1069.96 1086.93 -16.97 138  -4

143 Turkmenistan                   1065.42 1078.25 -12.83 141  -2

144 St. Kitts and Nevis            1064.99 1057.05   7.94 147   3

145 Liberia                        1063.04 1024.11  38.93 153   8

146 Ethiopia                       1059.94 1068.79  -8.85 144  -2

147 Fiji                           1053.82  981.26  72.56 168  21

148 Solomon Islands                1050.84 1113.57 -62.73 132 -16

149 Philippines                    1049.92 1086.17 -36.25 140  -9

150 Lesotho                        1046.76 1047.27  -0.51 148  -2

151 Moldova                        1045.59 1022.60  22.99 155   4

152 New Caledonia                  1034.30 1008.92  25.38 159   7

153 Tahiti                         1031.47  999.48  31.99 163  10

154 Guyana                         1030.60 1018.14  12.46 157   3

155 Hong Kong                      1028.75 1042.93 -14.18 150  -5

156 Afghanistan                    1025.00 1017.68   7.32 158   2

157 Puerto Rico                    1022.83 1007.19  15.64 160   3

158 Eswatini                       1015.25 1045.88 -30.63 149  -9

159 Yemen                          1014.54 1027.94 -13.40 152  -7

160 Singapore                      1011.66 1020.50  -8.84 156  -4

161 Antigua and Barbuda            1010.97 1072.66 -61.69 142 -19

162 Maldives                       1001.39 1003.48  -2.09 161  -1

163 Cuba                            994.43  980.65  13.78 169   6

164 Vanuatu                         991.67  980.33  11.34 170   6

165 Taiwan                          990.57 1023.93 -33.36 154 -11

166 Bermuda                         988.19  972.36  15.83 171   5

167 St. Lucia                       985.72  988.67  -2.95 167   0

168 Malta                           983.95  967.29  16.66 172   4

169 Myanmar                         982.15 1000.46 -18.31 162  -7

170 South Sudan                     973.55  989.29 -15.74 166  -4

171 Andorra                         971.54  998.00 -26.46 164  -7

172 St. Vincent and the Grenadines  961.92  953.47   8.45 173   1

173 Papua New Guinea                961.12  990.61 -29.49 165  -8

174 Grenada                         955.44  950.99   4.45 174   0

175 Nepal                           939.20  948.05  -8.85 175   0

176 Chad                            935.41  920.37  15.04 181   5

177 Barbados                        933.29  943.80 -10.51 178   1

178 Belize                          925.02  918.68   6.34 182   4

179 Mauritius                       923.46  944.95 -21.49 177  -2

180 Cambodia                        917.51  931.47 -13.96 179  -1

181 Montserrat                      914.25  946.08 -31.83 176  -5

182 Bhutan                          904.06  913.02  -8.96 184   2

183 Dominica                        900.00  922.25 -22.25 180  -3

184 Brunei                          899.87  870.63  29.24 194  10

185 Bangladesh                      898.81  916.75 -17.94 183  -2

186 Laos                            886.84  889.62  -2.78 189   3

187 American Samoa                  883.17  890.97  -7.80 188   1

188 Mongolia                        879.75  889.16  -9.41 190   2

189 São Tomé and Príncipe           878.09  888.94 -10.85 191   2

190 Cook Islands                    877.53  897.30 -19.77 185  -5

191 Djibouti                        877.37  881.18  -3.81 192   1

192 Samoa                           876.41  896.78 -20.37 186  -6

193 Macao                           872.55  896.62 -24.07 187  -6

194 Cayman Islands                  866.71  851.19  15.52 198   4

195 Aruba                           858.00  879.32 -21.32 193  -2

196 Eritrea                         855.56  855.56  -0.00 197   1

197 Gibraltar                       848.58  840.80   7.78 202   5

198 Timor Leste                     846.81  843.40   3.41 201   3

199 Pakistan                        842.59  856.54 -13.95 195  -4

200 Tonga                           835.64  856.18 -20.54 196  -4

201 Sri Lanka                       832.80  822.03  10.77 205   4

202 Seychelles                      831.19  845.53 -14.34 200  -2

203 Somalia                         829.81  845.66 -15.85 199  -4

204 Liechtenstein                   821.71  833.01 -11.30 204   0

205 Guam                            818.59  821.91  -3.32 206   1

206 Bahamas                         818.58  835.81 -17.23 203  -3

207 Turks and Caicos Islands        803.98  818.57 -14.59 207   0

208 British Virgin Islands          780.30  807.57 -27.27 208   0

209 US Virgin Islands               779.71  796.78 -17.07 209   0

210 Anguilla                        769.31  785.69 -16.38 210   0

211 San Marino                      747.42  741.61   5.81 211   0