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Sunday, September 27, 2020

FIFA ranking: October 2020 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 22nd.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: October 2020 probable ranking

The upcoming October FIFA window will see plenty of action. CONMEBOL will finally start with their qualifying campaign for the World Cup 2022 and will play their first two match days. UEFA continues with match days 3 and 4 in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2021. Because the window is extended with 1 day for UEFA teams there is room for a third matchday which will be filled with the single-leg semi-finals of the four EURO 2021 qualifying play-off paths. Of the other 39 UEFA teams only Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan will not play a friendly on that day.

FIFA ranking: October 2020 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA October 2020 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

FIFA ranking: October 2020 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including October 18th, used to calculate the October 2020 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since September 14th, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

Saturday, September 26, 2020

CONMEBOL qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (september 2020)

This week CONMEBOL finally confirmed the plans for their World Cup qualifiers. They will start as expected next month with their 18 match days encompassing qualification. If they play two MD's per FIFA window they will also need the June 2021 window (one week before the start of their postponed Copa America) in order to be able to finish in March 2022. That seems not very desirable  and it remains to be seen if they maybe will follow the UEFA and divert their two June MD's to two other windows in 2021.

Thursday, September 10, 2020

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2020)

The first two matchdays in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 have been played last week in the September window.

After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

I've made 10.000 simulations of all the currently scheduled matches for UEFA teams to be played in the October and November windows. All probabilities in %.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 final preview

In the end only the first 2 match days in the UEFA Nations League 2020 group stage and one AFC-friendly for a total of 55 matches were played this window. But not to complain, I'm glad there's some NT-football again.

The prospects for the October and November window are still uncertain. UEFA will continue their schedule, but CONCACAF and AFC have again postponed all NT-activity, now until March next year. Further adaptations to their WC-qualifying formats seems inevitable or they have to revert to 3 matches in a FIFA-window, like UEFA does partially already.
Still no word from CONMEBOL. However, if they want to complete their qualifying format (requiring 18 MD's) in time, they should start no later than October. CAF has scheduled their first competitive matches for CAF Nations Cup qualification in November. No NT-activity in OFC this year.