In case you hadn't noticed, the World Cup in Qatar is to be played next month. The tournament was already 10 years ago assigned to a country without any football tradition. It is proven in the meantime that a large part of FIFA's Executive Committee, that would choose the hosts for the two upcoming tournaments in 2018 and 2022 in a closed voting session, was bribed with large amounts of money and other privileges (one only has to think about Platini's son and his sudden career moves).
In this June window the qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar (to start in November this year) should finally come to a conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic plus the Russian war in Ukraine disrupted much on a global scale. It also caused havoc in the original qualification schedules of the confederations for this tournament. It caused severe delays and a final tournament draw taking place in April, even before the qualification process was properly completed.
I'm still unsure as to why FIFA decided to this schedule of events. There must be some totally football unrelated, probably commercial and for FIFA very profitable reasons behind this. At least, a fair draw was not their top priority, because also the decision to seed the three at the time of the draw unknown participants (one UEFA play-off path A winner and two interconfederational play-off winners) in pot 4, regardless of the ranking of the participating teams in each play-off was -to some degree- unfair and even contradictory to their own regulations.
The January window and all but the final weekend in the AFCON 2022 has been played. Compared to the last simulations made in November last year the following changes in the simulated match schedule are made:
The November window has been played. The decisions in the UEFA and CAF qualification groups are known now. Furthermore, yesterday the draw for the UEFA play-offs and the pairing of confederations in the interconfederational play-offs was made.
In two days time also the draw for the OFC qualification groups will be made. It seems the complete qualification for Oceania will be staged in Qatar in the March 2022 window.
Only the draw date for the CAF play-offs, said to be revealed last Thursday, is not made public yet. Now also the date of January 26th (in the middle of AFCON 2022) circulates. This date is important because it indicates which FIFA ranking will be used to seed the ten remaining teams. By the way, it's complete nonsense to compile a ranking while in the midst of a continental final tournament.
Just like in 2018 WC qualification CAF can't perform a straightforward final round draw with a set draw date and published procedures in advance. The powers that be in Africa still have a firm grasp on CAF decisions and are obviously still able to manipulate such decisions for their own good. This time it seems Egypt tries to get seeded by all means, not to much avail as you will read further on.
Also there are ongoing investigations into possible match-fixing against South Africa (vs. Ghana) and into possible substitution rule violation against Benin (vs. Congo DR) on the last match day. So I fear the last word isn't said about this at all. Anyway, sigh...
The October window is completed. Time to update the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.
Denmark and Germany are already qualified. Several teams underlined their ambitions. Some others made mistakes that could be costly. Below you can see all the consequences in terms of chances to qualify.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).
See here for an explanation and schedule of the qualification process and the simulation results after the September window.
All confederations except OFC are now busy with their main group qualification stage.
The draw for the Asian third qualification round for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar has been made some weeks ago. This is the final group stage with two groups of 6 teams. The ten group matches will be played between September and March next year.
Numbers one and two from each group qualify for Qatar. The two numbers three play a single-legged play-off in June 2022 to determine the Asian number five which will play an interconfederational play-off (also in June 2022) against an opponent from a yet unknown confederation (the CONCACAF 4th, the CONMEBOL 5th or the OFC 1st).
The situation in the second round of AFC qualifying has changed somewhat with the withdrawal after 6 match days of North Korea and the decision of AFC/FIFA to annul their matches and disregard the matches against the group number 5 in all other groups when determining the group runners-up table. Remember that -besides the 8 group winners- the top 4 of the group runners-up qualify for the third and final qualification round (or top 5 if Qatar is a group winner or belongs to the top 4 group runners-up).
Furthermore 4 matches have already been played between the last simulations in January this year and today, in which Qatar and Saudi Arabia won and Japan already secured passage to the third round as group winner. These simulations were made today (June 5th), right before the Saudi Arabia - Yemen match.
Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:
This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.
The first three match days in European qualification for the World Cup 2022 have been played last March. In this qualification there are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.
In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.
And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule, but Dublin and Bilbao are no longer venues because of the local strict COVID measures conflicting with the requirement of UEFA to play at least with some fans in the stands. Their matches are relocated to St. Petersburg (group matches Dublin), London (round of 16 Dublin) and Seville (group matches Bilbao).
Africa's qualification process for the World Cup next year in Qatar is not too complicated but (as usual) with little margin for error:
Although the match schedule for the second qualifying round is still not officially confirmed, nor by FIFA, nor by CAF, the first two group matches are scheduled for the upcoming June window next month. Don't know why it's taking them this long to publish a simple match schedule, when the draw for this round was already more than a year ago...
The European teams will have a busy schedule this year. The qualification groups for the World Cup 2022 in 10 MD's will start in March and be played to a finish in November. There are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.
In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.
And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule and in the same 12 venues, spread across Europe. Last November the last four participants (Hungary, Slovakia, Scotland and North Macedonia) came through the qualification finals.
Only a single match was played in the Asian qualification for the World Cup last year. The last four match days of the second round are rescheduled now for the coming March and June windows. After the Summer round three, consisting of 2 groups of 6 teams, will commence. The 12 qualified teams will be put in 6 pots of two. Which FIFA ranking (June or July) is used for seeding is yet unknown, because the publication schedule for 2021 is not yet published.
The AFC managed to keep the same qualification format. The matches for round three are now scheduled from September until March 2022. And the next step -where the Asian number 5 is determined between the two group numbers 3- is scheduled in June 2022 as a single match now. In that same June window the interconfederational play-offs (with the Asian number 5) are staged.
CONMEBOL started with their World Cup qualifiers. They played 4 MD's in October and November last year.
Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete qualifying campaign for CONMEBOL teams, including the complete Copa America 2021 (now scheduled for this June) along the road -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:
This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.
This week CONMEBOL finally confirmed the plans for their World Cup qualifiers. They will start as expected next month with their 18 match days encompassing qualification. If they play two MD's per FIFA window they will also need the June 2021 window (one week before the start of their postponed Copa America) in order to be able to finish in March 2022. That seems not very desirable and it remains to be seen if they maybe will follow the UEFA and divert their two June MD's to two other windows in 2021.
