Copa America 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number four in this series of simulation reports: North, Central and South America.

The Copa America 2024 was initially intended as the continental championship of South America, edition number 48 of this oldest continental championship in the football world. However, in January 2023 a new strategic partnership was signed between CONMEBOL and CONCACAF and with that came a second combined 'Copa of the Americas' (after the Copa America Centenario in 2016). Again 6 CONCACAF teams (besides the 10 CONMEBOL members) were able to qualify for the tournament. It will be hosted by the United States. It is yet unknown if this one is the first of a combined Americas Cup from now on.

CONMEBOL qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

CONMEBOL started with their World Cup qualifiers. They played 4 MD's in October and November last year.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete qualifying campaign for CONMEBOL teams, including the complete Copa America 2021 (now scheduled for this June) along the road -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

CONMEBOL qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (september 2020)

This week CONMEBOL finally confirmed the plans for their World Cup qualifiers. They will start as expected next month with their 18 match days encompassing qualification. If they play two MD's per FIFA window they will also need the June 2021 window (one week before the start of their postponed Copa America) in order to be able to finish in March 2022. That seems not very desirable  and it remains to be seen if they maybe will follow the UEFA and divert their two June MD's to two other windows in 2021.

Copa America 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Last week was the draw for the Copa America 2020, to be played from June 12th to July 12th next year in Argentina and Colombia. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Copa America 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

On January 24th was the draw for the Copa America 2019, played from June 14th to July 7th in Brazil. This is the last time in the somewhat awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 and the two best numbers 3 qualify for the quarter finals.
Next year in 2020 already the Copa America will be expanded to 16 teams and from then be held in the same 4-year cycle as the EURO.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

2016 Copa América Centenario sims

The usual 10000 simulations.

First the average points in the group stage.

FIFA "A" match status: Double standard?

As you know, Mexico and Costa Rica will participate in the Copa America as guests. They won't be sending full strength squads however.

FMF's website uses the term "Selection Sub-22" for their team. Same thing for Costa Rica: they will send their "Seleccion Preolimpica" to the Copa America.

FIFA have recently removed Mexico's pre-Copa America friendlies from their list of results. However, the Copa America matches involving Mexico and Costa Rica are still on FIFA.com.

When Côte d'Ivoire sent their CHAN team to the 2010 CECAFA Cup, their matches weren't included in the FIFA Ranking. Same for South Africa (Developmental XI) and Angola (U-20) in the 2008 and 2009 COSAFA Cup.

So I assume FIFA are including Mexico's and Costa Rica's games because Copa America is a continental championship, while the CECAFA and COSAFA cups are only regional tournaments of little international importance.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Combined Copa America possible in the future

Last week, Chuck Blazer (CONCACAF general secretary) said that “four or five years ago” there were talks involving potential sponsors about a 10/6 super-tournament, but that idea was rejected at the time.

Still, Blazer didn’t discard the idea for the future. “Other configurations might lend themselves to being possible,” he said. “Economic parameters would need to be met. The Gold Cup is the main source of revenue to support the youth programs and competitions that we do. If we did [a Copa Américas], we would have to see how it would replace what currently exists.”

Full article on Grant Wahl's SI.com blog.

O Globo jumped the gun (or maybe they know more) and announced that the 2015 Copa America could feature 10 teams from CONMEBOL and 6 from CONCACAF.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.