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Sunday, September 29, 2019

FIFA ranking: October 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA October 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: October 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 24th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: October 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including October 20th, used to calculate the October 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since September 16th, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: October 2019 probable ranking

Autumn, NT-football at it's best with each month a FIFA international match window and lots of important, possibly decisive qualifiers. Besides the (preparatory) friendlies and the final qualifier legs in the African Nations Championship 2020 mostly World Cup qualifiers in Asia (MD 3 and 4), preliminary qualifiers for AFCON 2021 in Africa, MD 3 and 4 in the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 and MD 7 and 8 of the EURO 2020 qualifiers.

Here is the probable October 2019 ranking, to be published on October 24th.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2019)

The first two matchdays for the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

The day before the first matches would be played CONCACAF announced that this tournament will also serve as qualification for the Gold Cup 2021. But hey, you don't hear me complaining, at least they announced it :)

Thursday, September 12, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (September 2019)

The first two match days of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (11 September 2019)

The matchdays five and six in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March) and MD4 (June).

FIFA ranking: September 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday September 19th.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between July 22nd and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-07-22 Djibouti - Somalia 1:0 (in Djibouti)
2019-08-14 Dominican Republic - Guatemala 0:0 (in Dominican Republic)
2019-08-28 Oman - Yemen 1:0 (in Oman)
2019-08-29 Chinese Taipei - Guam 3:0 (closed door match in Chinese Taipei)
2019-08-30 China PR - Myanmar 4:1 (closed door match in China PR)
2019-09-04 Burkina Faso - Libya 1:0 (in Morocco)
2019-09-08 Morocco - Burkina Faso 1:0 (in Morocco)

Included are all other friendlies, final part of the Indian Ocean Island Games, WAFF-cup, qualifiers for CHAN 2020 and of course all matches played in the September FIFA window: qualifiers for EURO, Gold Cup (aka CONCACAF Nations League) and World Cup (Asia and Africa). In total 221 matches count for this ranking.