2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (6 October 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the third match day (5 September 2017). Kyrgyz Republic bounce back and replace Myanmar in the list of teams most likely to qualify.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (14 July 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the second match day (13 June 2017). Great improvement for Myanmar and Philippines. On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Singapore stumbled and lost momentum.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (21 April 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the first match day. Great improvement for India.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims

10000 simulations - before and after the draw.

First, remember the pots:

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding

Guam have pulled out of the competition citing financial issues. Nepal, winners of the inaugural AFC Solidarity Cup, will take Guam's place in the draw.

Kuwait have been given until 11 January to sort their issues with FIFA. If they fail, a draw will be used to determine their replacement, although I would have expected AFC to name Macau (Solidarity Cup runners-up) to be named as stand-by team. [Update: Macau will be the stand-by team according to a letter from AFC]

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding update

More info in this post.

The usual 10000 simulations - based on the current list of fixtures. Teams are sorted on average pot over the 10000 sims.

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding simulations

The draw for the 3rd round will take place on 18 January 2017. This has been announced by Tajik FA and Kyrgyz FA. This is all very nice.

Regarding the seeding criteria, I only have a comment on Facebook (by the Tajikistan FA), stating FIFA ranking will be used. Even so, I have to assume it will be the January 2017 FIFA ranking.

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC sims (18 December 2015)

Two weeks late, I know :)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 14 December 2015. And assuming Myanmar - Kuwait will finally be played on 19 March 2016 (currently there's no information from FIFA regarding's this match).

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format:

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC second round simulations (23 October 2015)

By request.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 22 October 2015. And assuming Kuwait manage to fix their issues in time for the November qualifier vs. Myanmar.

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format :

2018 FIFA World Cup (AFC): Minimum travel groups

Some AFC teams are worried about the travel they will face in the group stage.

I dusted off my minimum travel groups code used for the EURO 2016 draw and here's what came out.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Second round pots

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

With no matches left before the deadline, the pots are set.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (27 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Yemen have advanced, after a 0 - 0 vs. Pakistan played in Bahrain.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Only one spot left - it will be either Pakistan or Yemen - as the return leg was rescheduled because of the Lahore church bombings.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)

As explained earlier, AFC have told me they will use the most recent FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw.

With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying: AFC draw dates and seeding leaked

As usual with AFC, it's very hard to get information regarding their competitions. In 7 years, they have replied only once to my e-mails.

However, the United Arab Emirates FA have posted the draw dates on their website. Use Google Translate if your Arabic grasp is lacking.

AFC announce major competition changes

A bit of old news.

AFC announced on 24 January 2013 they will be making major changes to the AFC Asian Cup and FIFA World Cup qualification.

Here's the most important part.