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Wednesday, September 13, 2023

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

Last week the match days five and six of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2 and after MD4.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

FIFA ranking: September 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday September 21st. This final preview contains 165 matches, out of 182 matches played since July 17th.


Eritrea played their last official match 4 years ago in September 2019. They are excluded from the ranking from now on, until they have played again. Eritrea is participating in African qualifying for the World Cup 2026, with the first round scheduled for November.

Sunday, September 3, 2023

CAF qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

The match schedule for the group stage matches in African qualification for the World Cup 2026 is finally released, so now I'm able to simulate the process. The format is very simple: all 54 African teams are divided in 9 groups of 6 teams and the 9 group winners qualify for the World Cup.

The 4 best ranked group runners-up will qualify for a play-off, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a one-off final to determine the CAF representation in the IPO. The seeding for this play-off is unknown yet. It could be a completely free draw, or seeding according to the prevailing FIFA ranking or to the ranking of the 4 participants based on group results and then 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.

This play-off will be played anyway in November 2025.