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Saturday, June 24, 2023

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (June 2023)

Last week the match days three and four of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. And see here for the simulation results after the first two match days.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.


First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Scotland

59,13

38,70

2,08

0,09

0,00

1,43

Spain

39,81

53,27

5,67

1,25

0,00

1,68

Norway

0,46

3,75

54,43

40,30

1,06

3,38

Georgia

0,60

4,28

37,53

56,40

1,19

3,53

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,29

1,96

97,75

4,97

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

France

94,52

5,39

0,09

0,00

0,00

1,06

Netherlands

4,70

75,19

15,77

4,34

0,00

2,20

Greece

0,77

16,03

61,63

21,57

0,00

3,04

Republic of Ireland

0,01

3,39

22,51

73,97

0,12

3,71

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,12

99,88

5,00

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

England

87,93

10,97

1,10

0,00

0,00

1,13

Italy

8,05

53,93

36,31

1,71

0,00

2,32

Ukraine

4,02

34,89

59,68

1,41

0,00

2,58

North Macedonia

0,00

0,21

2,91

84,19

12,69

4,09

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

12,69

87,31

4,87

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Croatia

89,16

9,59

1,11

0,14

0,00

1,12

Turkey

10,03

81,09

8,04

0,83

0,01

2,00

Wales

0,48

5,40

44,47

46,28

3,37

3,47

Armenia

0,33

3,90

45,73

47,31

2,73

3,48

Latvia

0,00

0,02

0,65

5,44

93,89

4,93

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Czech Republic

76,36

18,50

5,03

0,11

0,00

1,29

Poland

13,83

52,83

31,62

1,52

0,20

2,21

Albania

9,79

28,13

55,98

5,69

0,41

2,59

Moldova

0,02

0,47

6,51

76,49

16,51

4,09

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,07

0,86

16,19

82,88

4,82

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Belgium

72,56

26,09

1,34

0,01

0,00

1,29

Austria

26,39

62,62

10,87

0,12

0,00

1,85

Sweden

1,05

11,01

78,37

8,26

1,31

2,98

Estonia

0,00

0,26

7,43

59,84

32,47

4,25

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,02

1,99

31,77

66,22

4,64

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Serbia

60,63

36,61

2,65

0,11

0,00

1,42

Hungary

38,59

53,69

7,52

0,20

0,00

1,69

Montenegro

0,76

9,13

74,72

12,84

2,55

3,07

Bulgaria

0,02

0,52

12,30

72,98

14,18

4,01

Lithuania

0,00

0,05

2,81

13,87

83,27

4,80

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Denmark

53,01

32,20

12,62

2,04

0,13

0,00

1,64

Finland

35,21

36,16

19,03

8,99

0,61

0,00

2,04

Slovenia

9,82

24,40

45,84

16,52

3,42

0,00

2,79

Kazakhstan

1,86

6,75

19,98

62,24

9,17

0,00

3,70

Northern Ireland

0,10

0,49

2,53

10,21

86,66

0,01

4,83

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

99,99

6,00

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Switzerland

83,80

14,47

1,65

0,07

0,01

0,00

1,18

Romania

12,07

51,49

31,29

4,50

0,65

0,00

2,30

Israel

4,03

32,46

51,78

9,42

2,27

0,04

2,74

Kosovo

0,08

0,89

8,46

41,40

42,56

6,61

4,45

Belarus

0,02

0,69

6,73

41,80

44,05

6,71

4,49

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,09

2,81

10,46

86,64

5,84

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Portugal

98,36

1,62

0,02

0,00

0,00

0,00

1,02

Slovakia

1,62

66,61

25,01

6,00

0,76

0,00

2,38

Luxembourg

0,02

23,63

40,07

22,68

13,60

0,00

3,26

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

5,62

22,27

45,33

26,74

0,04

3,93

Iceland

0,00

2,52

12,63

25,98

58,82

0,05

4,41

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,08

99,91

6,00


Scotland stayed on track for qualification by beating a 1-0 leading Norway in the last ten minutes. Greece won at home against the Republic of Ireland and could make life a nuisance for the Netherlands in Autumn, especially regarding the shown level of the Dutch in the Nations League Final Four.

Ukraine and Italy will fight it out for spot 2 in group C behind a rampant England. Wales collapsed at home against Armenia and couldn't impress at Turkey either. They are probably the biggest loser of this window in terms of throwing away their qualification chances.

Poland experienced a surprise loss against Moldova which ruined their first place aspirations in group E. They will have to fence off Albania for second. Austria had an excellent window with a draw away at leader Belgium and a win against direct opponent for second place Sweden.

With a lot of draws group G remains in the same modus with Serbia and Hungary on track to qualification. In a close group H Finland won against Slovenia, while leader Denmark only managed a draw with Slovenia. Nothing cemented yet in this group.

In groups I and J Switzerland and Portugal are cruising to first place. Romania and Israel fight for second in group I. In group J Bosnia-Herzegovina lost at home against direct opponent Luxembourg so Slovakia and Luxembourg now the main candidates for second place there.


The probabilities for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2024, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2024 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. UNL group winners are indicated with 'gw' and the league letter.

In the last column you can find the difference in Qtot (in %-points) compared to the simulation results after MD2.


team - grp

Qdirect

po-semi

po-final

po-win

Qtot

diff

Germany (host)

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Portugal - J

99,98

0,02

0,02

0,01

99,99

0,16

France - B

99,91

0,09

0,07

0,03

99,94

0,11

England - C

98,90

1,10

0,93

0,67

99,57

0,13

Croatia - D (gw-A)

98,75

1,25

1,17

0,75

99,50

0,60

Belgium - F

98,65

1,35

1,15

0,75

99,40

0,05

Switzerland - I

98,27

1,72

1,28

0,64

98,91

-0,52

Scotland - A (gw-B)

97,83

2,17

1,65

1,06

98,89

12,47

Serbia - G (gw-B)

97,24

2,76

2,17

1,50

98,74

0,15

Spain - A (gw-A)

93,08

6,92

6,54

4,14

97,22

1,56

Czech Republic - E

94,86

5,09

3,46

1,45

96,31

3,06

Hungary - G

92,28

7,72

5,78

2,29

94,57

1,17

Turkey - D (gw-C)

91,12

8,88

3,05

1,74

92,86

40,44

Austria - F

89,01

10,80

6,89

3,00

92,01

20,86

Netherlands - B (gw-A)

79,89

20,11

19,24

12,03

91,92

-5,39

Denmark - H

85,21

14,78

11,98

5,82

91,03

1,59

Italy - C (gw-A)

61,98

38,02

36,16

26,78

88,76

-1,06

Finland - H

71,37

28,63

14,07

7,20

78,57

15,88

Poland - E

66,66

33,26

23,31

8,75

75,41

-18,79

Ukraine - C

38,91

61,05

47,48

34,91

73,82

8,93

Slovakia - J

68,23

0,00

0,00

0,00

68,23

31,31

Romania - I

63,56

0,00

0,00

0,00

63,56

1,63

Greece - B (gw-C)

16,80

83,20

75,88

44,01

60,81

8,99

Israel - I (gw-B)

36,49

63,51

38,29

15,30

51,79

10,25

Georgia - A (gw-C)

4,88

95,12

85,90

44,94

49,82

2,48

Slovenia - H

34,22

35,79

12,51

5,94

40,16

-20,93

Albania - E

37,92

1,83

0,34

0,11

38,03

20,58

Norway - A

4,21

76,72

43,97

27,19

31,40

-17,37

Luxembourg - J

23,65

71,30

11,28

3,01

26,66

16,92

Bosnia-Herzegovina - J (gw-B)

5,62

94,38

48,30

16,31

21,93

-29,05

Wales - D

5,88

91,61

45,49

14,70

20,58

-48,85

Kazakhstan - H (gw-C)

8,61

91,39

18,52

4,46

13,07

7,71

Sweden - F

12,06

0,01

0,01

0,01

12,07

-27,51

Montenegro - G

9,89

0,19

0,02

0,00

9,89

-2,15

Iceland - J

2,52

94,69

16,68

4,75

7,27

-13,69

Republic of Ireland - B

3,40

17,87

7,35

3,25

6,65

-6,16

Armenia - D

4,23

0,00

0,00

0,00

4,23

3,46

Kosovo - I

0,97

8,02

1,19

0,51

1,48

-7,74

Azerbaijan - F

0,02

41,30

4,07

1,26

1,28

0,68

Estonia - F (gw-D)

0,26

86,56

3,69

0,66

0,92

-1,61

Belarus - I

0,71

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,71

-2,03

Bulgaria - G

0,54

0,75

0,11

0,07

0,61

-0,56

Northern Ireland - H

0,59

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,59

-4,31

Moldova - E

0,49

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,49

0,30

North Macedonia - C

0,21

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,21

-2,19

Faroe Islands - E

0,07

0,04

0,00

0,00

0,07

-0,77

Lithuania - G

0,05

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,05

-0,12

Latvia - D (gw-D)

0,02

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

-0,55

Cyprus - A

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,10

Andorra - I

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,02

Gibraltar - B

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein - J

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta - C

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino - H

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00




A preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:

Non-qualified group winners from leagues C to A:

From league C: Georgia (33), Greece (34), Kazakhstan (36).
From league B: Israel (17), Bosnia-Herzegovina (18)
From league A: all group winners qualify directly.

The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:

from league A: Wales (16)
from league B: Ukraine (22), Iceland (23), Norway (24), Slovenia (25)
from league C: Luxembourg (37)
from league D: Estonia (49)

So we have:
League D 1 team: 1 group-winner
League C 4 teams: 3 group-winners and 1 non group-winner
League B 6 teams: 2 group-winners and 4 non group-winners
League A 1 team: 1 non group-winner

This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

path C:

Georgia - Luxembourg

Greece - Kazakhstan


path B:

Israel - draw from Iceland/Norway/Slovenia

Bosnia-Herzegovina - draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Norway


path A:

Wales - Estonia

draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Norway - draw from Iceland/Norway/Slovenia



Finally a preview of the pots for the draw of the final EURO 2024 tournament. 

Each of the four pots will contain 6 teams. Germany as host will be in pot 1, the other 20 directly qualified teams are seeded in pots, based on the overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking. The three play-off path winners are always seeded in pot 4.

The teams are ordered by average overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking position, weighted with the probability to qualify (direct or via play-offs):


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

Germany

100,00

0

0

0

Portugal

88,93

9,86

1,09

0,11

France

82,81

14,47

2,63

0,03

England

72,72

20,05

6,08

0,72

Croatia

54,51

35,98

7,56

1,45

Belgium

46,44

37,01

14,47

1,48

---------------------------

Switzerland

31,71

53,12

10,28

3,80

Czech Republic

23,31

53,63

16,24

3,13

Scotland

25,36

42,04

27,48

4,01

Serbia

20,67

42,52

28,59

6,96

Spain

16,41

36,23

34,62

9,96

Hungary

11,20

31,12

37,82

14,43

---------------------------

Denmark

1,02

52,31

20,34

17,36

Austria

9,68

23,43

44,87

14,03

Netherlands

3,05

18,46

48,28

22,13

Turkey

1,56

12,58

59,61

19,11

Italy

3,99

16,27

38,16

30,34

Finland

3,01

32,72

21,12

21,72

---------------------------

Poland

0,11

15,35

35,50

24,45

Ukraine

1,29

7,43

25,86

39,24

Romania

0,94

12,04

21,21

29,37

Slovakia

0,38

1,96

18,25

47,64

Greece

0,23

1,44

10,48

48,66

Israel

0,07

4,39

11,05

36,28

Albania

0,50

9,66

17,34

10,53

Georgia

0

0,61

2,31

46,90

Slovenia

0,03

9,88

12,06

18,19

Norway

0

0,46

1,85

29,09

Luxembourg

0

0,04

3,74

22,88

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

0

0,42

21,51

Wales

0

0,48

2,93

17,17

Sweden

0,02

1,23

7,70

3,12

Kazakhstan

0,03

1,84

2,01

9,19

Montenegro

0,02

0,81

4,51

4,55

Iceland

0

0

0,01

7,26

Republic of Ireland

0

0,01

1,23

5,41

Armenia

0

0,33

1,84

2,06

Kosovo

0

0,08

0,22

1,18

Azerbaijan

0

0

0

1,28

Estonia

0

0

0,03

0,89

Belarus

0

0,02

0,01

0,68

Northern Ireland

0

0,10

0

0,49

Bulgaria

0

0,02

0,09

0,50

Moldova

0

0,02

0,05

0,42

North Macedonia

0

0

0,06

0,15

Faroe Islands

0

0

0

0,07

Lithuania

0

0

0

0,05

Latvia

0

0

0

0,02

Cyprus

0

0

0

0

Andorra

0

0

0

0

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0

Malta

0

0

0

0

San Marino

0

0

0

0




About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. Not sure to be happy or sad for Estonia. On one hand they're almost certainly guaranteed a spot in the playoff, on the other hand they could be a *tad* overmatched

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should be happy. In semifinal EST will play againt Poland and they'll win.

      Delete