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Sunday, January 29, 2023

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (January 2023)

Now the schedule for the UEFA Nations League 2023 Final Four is drawn, it's time to focus on the qualification for the EURO 2024 in Germany. There were 10 qualification groups drawn in October last year, 7 groups with 5 teams and 3 groups with 6 teams for a total of 53 participating teams. Germany as host is qualified automatically and Russia is banned for obvious reasons. Inexplicably, Belarus was allowed to participate though.

Thursday, January 5, 2023

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable ranking

Yes, you read it correctly, FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February, even if there are three tournaments played to a finish this January:

  • the South-East Asian Championship 2023 started already in December with the group stage. Tomorrow the semi-finals start. Both semi-finals and final are played over home-and-away legs;
  • the Gulf Cup 2023 starts tomorrow in Iraq;
  • the African Nations Championship 2023 starts next week in Algeria. For African NT-teams consisting of players playing in domestic leagues only. Matches in this tournament will count for the FIFA ranking, not for the elo rating though.

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 213 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including March 28th, used to calculate the April 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

For the already played matches the match result and the exchanged points are given. 

For the scheduled matches the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team are given. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.