EURO 2016 sims (5 February 2016)

I actually ran the sims last Friday, but had no time to format the data.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula to run 10000 simulations.

EURO 2016 play-off sims and comparison with previous sims

From an Elo rating point of view, 3 of the 4 EURO 2016 play-offs are extremely balanced.

Sweden (1723) vs. Denmark (1723)
Norway (1638) vs. Hungary (1632)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1728) vs. Republic of Ireland (1720)
Ukraine (1788) vs. Slovenia (1598)

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (11 September 2015)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 September 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (24 July 2015)

Finally found the time to for this.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 23 July 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (3 July 2015)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (17 April 2015)

Long overdue post. And it's quite long.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 15 April 2015.

Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (28 November 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (24 October 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (19 September 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (5 September 2014)

Updated to include the 10000 points - thanks Ed.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

I've already included the 2016 campaign. That's why for instance Germany have only 31135 points.

EURO 2016: Minimum travel groups

Remember the EURO 2016 regulations leaked by the Romanian FA?

There were some principles no longer found in the latest regulations:

b) Venues with climate risk

 - Stadiums belonging to FAs from countries with cold winters are in this category
 - In a group there will be at most 3 teams from countries with cold winters. There are two subcategories: Very cold winter (Finland, Faroe Islands, Norway and Russia) and Cold winter (Andorra, Belarus, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Sweden and Ukraine).

UEFA EURO 2016 official qualifying draw pots

Source: UEFA.com

Pot 1: Spain (holders), Germany, Netherlands, Italy, England, Portugal, Greece, Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pot 2: Ukraine, Croatia, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Ireland
Pot 3: Serbia, Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Norway, Slovakia, Romania, Austria, Poland
Pot 4: Montenegro, Armenia, Scotland, Finland, Latvia, Wales, Bulgaria, Estonia, Belarus
Pot 5: Iceland, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania, Moldova, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Cyprus
Pot 6: Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Malta, Andorra, San Marino, Gibraltar

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding info

There have been some changes in the coefficient calculation as noticed by Ed and peeotreck.

First of all the bonus point were tweaked. Second, the calculation for national associations that have hosted a final tournament in the reference period was changed.

In the case of an association that has hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament during one of the reference periods as mentioned under Annex B.1.2 and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the most recent qualifying competition in which the association has taken part are used.

UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying format officially confirmed

Not by UEFA, but by the Romanian FA.

Original article in Romanian. Main points below.

Assuming all 53 FAs will participate - there will be 8 groups of 6 teams and one of 5 teams.

The teams will be split in 6 pots according to the UEFA coefficient. This list doesn't appear in the FRF article, is based on my calculations.

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (22 November 2013)

This is the final ranking that will be used for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw. It will take place in Nice on 23 February 2014.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (25 October 2013)

Next update: November 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

UEFA considering Nations League competition

In a bid to make international football more attractive, UEFA is a looking at a Nations League competition.

The idea, floated at executive committee meetings that preceded aUefa meeting in Dubrovnik last month, would see Uefa using existing dates for friendlies in the international calendar to launch a new league involving all 54 member nations.

Uefa sources have told the Guardian that the idea was one of several floated at the meeting as part of a discussion about how to improve the attractiveness of international football from 2018 onwards. The Uefa executive committee will now examine the idea in more detail before deciding whether to adopt it.

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (20 September 2013)

Next update: October 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

10000 sims on the road to Brazil (13 September 2013)

More info in the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Here's the outcome:

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations (13 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

I know the EURO 2016 qualifying format will most likely change, but since I already had the code in place, here are the updated simulations.

Pot 6:

100% - Andorra
100% - San Marino
100% - Malta
100% - Faroe Islands
99.99% - Liechtenstein
82.74% - Luxembourg
73.57% - Kazakhstan
43.16% - Cyprus
0.54% - Azerbaijan