CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the second simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification.

The CAF Nations Cup 2025 will be played next year in Morocco. Once again the original scheduling of the AFCON in the Summer needs adjustment. This time it's not the expected weather conditions in the host country, but FIFA's expanded Club World Championship next Summer that's forcing the reschedule. The 'normal' alternative (January/February 2026) was further compromised because of the expansion of the league stage of UEFA's Champions League and Europa League with two extra match days ultimo January. The final dates were after ample deliberations therefore set to December 21st 2025 to January 18th 2026.

African Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. To kick off a series of simulation reports I start with Africa.

The African Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Ivory Coast. Much to the delight of several European top clubs, who otherwise would miss quite a few African top players from mid December to mid February during an important part of their domestic competition, CAF had already in 2019 decided to schedule the AFCON from that moment on in June instead of the usual month of January. 

However, with assigning the tournament to a tropical country (again), it became clear very soon that, just like the previous edition in Cameroon, the continental showpiece in 2023 had to be moved back to January 2024 due to unfavorable climatic conditions in the tropical Summer. Conditions really nobody could foresee...

CAF Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

This June window the group stage starts in the qualification for the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire in June next year. In March preliminary play-offs were played to wittle the 54 entered African teams down to 48. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams starts with two matchdays in June, two in September and two in March next year. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.

African Cup of Nations 2022 simulations (December 2021)

The African Cup of Nations 2021 was initially scheduled for June 2021 in Cameroon, but soon moved back to January 2021 due to unfavourable climatic conditions in this time of the year. Then the COVID-19 pandemic forced a postponement of this tournament to January 2022. 

Now it  seems ready to be played. Proper preparation for the participating teams is still hampered though by COVID-19: most teams stay in homeland training camps and only a few preparatory friendlies are played next week before the continental showpiece kicks off on Sunday January 9th in Cameroon.

It has the same format as the AFCON 2019 in Egypt with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.

Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (January 2021)

Last November match days 3 and 4 of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 were played. The AFCON 2021 will be played in Cameroon, but is already postponed to January 2022. The last two matchdays will be played next March. The top 2 from each of the 12 groups qualifies for the 24-team AFCON 2021. Cameroon as host plays the qualifiers but is of course already certain of qualification. From their group F only one highest ranked other team qualifies, besides Cameroon.

Subsequently from May until October this year the second round of World Cup qualifying for CAF-teams will be played in 10 groups of 4 teams. The draw for this group stage was already a year ago in Cairo, but still no official schedule of matches is published by CAF/FIFA.

The third qualification round to decide the 5 African representatives in Qatar is staged for November this year. It consists of 5 two-legged play-offs between the 10 group winners.

Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (October 2019)

This November the first two match days of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played, in 12 groups of 4 teams. The group stage is played to a finish in Autumn 2020.
In between, in March and June 2020, the first two match days will be played of the second round of African qualifying for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This is also a group stage consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams.

The exact date for the draw of the WCq group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the November 2019 ranking will be used to seed the draw for this group stage.

2019 CAF Nations Cup: 10000 simulations

Next month the last match day of qualifying for the CAF Nations Cup 2019 (Egypt this Summer) will be played. Already 14 teams are qualified, another 10 berths to play for. Here are the results of 10000 simulations of this match day. The results will also determine the seeding for the draw of the final tournament, based on the CAF NT ranking. 

AFCON 2017: Seeding for the final draw

I must be getting old or perhaps my interest regarding football is quickly diminishing. I forgot about the 2017 AFCON qualification - it finished at the start of September.

The draw will take place on 19 October 2016.

2015 Africa Cup of Nations simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

3.32% - Cameroon vs. Côte d'Ivoire
3.18% - Algeria vs. Ghana
2.64% - Algeria vs. Côte d'Ivoire
2.62% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ghana
2.29% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. South Africa
2.24% - Ghana vs. Senegal
2.02% - Algeria vs. Senegal
1.99% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Tunisia
1.98% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Senegal
1.92% - Ghana vs. Tunisia

AFCON qualifiers: CAF not following their own regulations

Equatorial Guinea used an ineligible player (Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta) in both legs of the AFCON 2015 first round against Mauritania.

Mauritania won the first leg 1-0 and lost the return leg 3-0.

Looking at article 36 of the AFCON regulations (2012 version):

AFCON 2015 qualifiers: Official format and seeding

CAF have announced the format for the 2015 AFCON qualifiers last week. See the press release (PDF file).

As for the qualifiers' draw, it shall be held Sunday, April 27th 2014 in Cairo, Egypt. The qualifiers shall be played in the format of several preliminary rounds, as well as a group phase with seven groups consisting of four teams each. The two top teams of each group will then directly qualify for the Orange AFCON 2015, along with the 3rd place winners of the seven groups.

2015 Africa Cup of Nations seeding for the qualifying and final draws

The qualifying draw for the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations (hosted by Morocco) will take place in South Africa in January/February 2014 during the African Nations Championship.

There will be a preliminary round to reduce the field to 48 teams - for this round, the FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams.

The for group stage draw, the CAF rankings will be used for seeding.

The winner from each of the 12 groups will qualify for a place in the final tournament in Morocco along with the 3 best second placed teams.

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF qualifying format to be changed?

In May 2013, CAF announced the qualifying format for the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations (hosted by Morocco).

With all the 2014 FIFA match dates used for the 2015 qualifiers, it means the preliminaries for the 2017 ACN and 2018 World Cup will only start in 2015. The preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place on 24 or 25 July 2015.

CAF can't use the 2010 WCQ system because back then the World Cup and the Nations Cup where held in the same year.

CAF EXCO decisions: 2014 WCQ and 2015 AFCON details

Source: CAFOnline.com

The CAF Executive Committee also confirmed the dates of the final phase of the upcoming Orange Africa Cup of Nations - Morocco 2015 to be held from Saturday January 17th to Saturday February 07th 2015. The qualifiers will include two (2) phases, one preliminary phase in July / August to reduce the engaged teams to 48, and a group phase made of 12 groups of 4 teams each, whereby the top of each group as well as the best 3 runners up will qualify to the final phase.

2013 African Cup of Nations qualifying simulations

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Chances of qualification:

98.03% - Congo DR
97.75% - Mali
95.32% - Nigeria
95.20% - Ghana
93.63% - Tunisia
93.00% - Côte d'Ivoire
91.32% - Guinea

2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (7 September 2012)

An update of the February 2012 post.

The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).

Points are awarded in this fashion:

7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage

Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.

2013 African Cup of Nations qualifiers: Seeding for the final round draw (24 February 2012)

The first round is scheduled for 29 February and 15 June. Egypt vs. Central African Republic will be played on 15 and 24 June.

According to El Watan, the CAF Ranking will be used to seed the teams. What does "CAF Ranking" mean? Is it something like the one used for the final tournament draw? Then we're looking at this ranking. However, seeing CAF's sudden interest about the FIFA Ranking procedure, maybe they will use the July 2012 FIFA ranking to seed the teams for the second round draw.

Here's the July 2012 FIFA ranking - with remaining matches counted as defeats:

* - 2012 AFCON teams will enter the qualifiers in the second round

Rank - Team - Points

1 Côte d'Ivoire *          893
 2 Ghana *                  672
 3 Mali *                   597
 4 Zambia *                 595
 5 Gabon *                  581
 6 Libya *                  531
 7 Tunisia *                522
 8 Algeria                  469
 9 Egypt                    463
10 Nigeria                  440
11 Cameroon                 421
12 Morocco *                413
13 Senegal *                410
14 Guinea *                 403
15 Burkina Faso *           386
16 Angola *                 382
17 Sierra Leone             364
18 Cape Verde Islands       334
19 Uganda                   324
20 Zimbabwe                 299
21 Malawi                   286
22 Niger *                  282
22 Sudan *                  282
24 Togo                     280
25 Botswana *               269
26 Mozambique               264
27 Equatorial Guinea *      261
28 Rwanda                   233
29 Namibia                  232
30 Central African Republic 222
31 Benin                    220
32 Gambia                   214
33 Chad                     196
33 Kenya                    196
33 Congo DR                 196
36 Tanzania                 191
37 Congo                    189
38 Liberia                  181
39 Burundi                  162
40 Ethiopia                 157
41 Madagascar               115
42 Guinea-Bissau            103
43 Sao Tome e Principe       94
44 Seychelles                46

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (24 February 2012)

CAF Ranking system

The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).

Points are awarded in this fashion:

7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage

Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.

If two or more teams have the same total, they will be ranked on the total number of points (3 for a win, 1 for a loss).

Rank - Team - ACN 2008 - ACN 2010 - ACN 2012 - Total

1	Zambia	1	2	7	26
2	Ghana	3	5	3	22
3	Côte d'Ivoire	3	2	5	22
4	Egypt	7	7	0	21
5	Mali	1	1	3	12
6	Tunisia	2	1	2	10
7	Cameroon	5	2	0	9
8	Angola	2	2	1	9
9	Gabon	0	1	2	8
10	Nigeria	2	3	0	8
11	Sudan	1	0	2	7
12	Algeria	0	3	0	6
13	Equatorial Guinea	0	0	2	6
14	Guinea	2	0	1	5
15	Burkina Faso	0	1	1	5
16	Morocco	1	0	1	4
17	Senegal	1	0	1	4
18	Libya	0	0	1	3
19	Benin	1	1	0	3
20	Niger	0	0	1	3
21	Botswana	0	0	1	3
22	Malawi	0	1	0	2
23	Mozambique	0	1	0	2
24	Togo	0	1	0	2
25	South Africa	1	0	0	1
26	Namibia	1	0	0	1

If the top 15 teams in the February 2012 FIFA ranking qualify, these will be the pots:

Pot 1: South Africa, Zambia, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire
Pot 2: Egypt, Mali, Tunisia, Cameroon
Pot 3: Gabon, Nigeria, Algeria, Guinea
Pot 4: Morocco, Senegal, Libya, Sierra Leone

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Something happening in the Gulf of Guinea

In Africa, all eyes are on Equatorial Guinea's achievement (and rightly so). The Equatoguineans (or well, the football players mainly born outside of the country) managed to qualify for the quarterfinals, eliminating Senegal in the process and will climb at least 33 places, from their current ranking of 151st.

However, another nation from the Gulf of Guinea is also making waves. Sao Tome and Principe (population: 163,000), have eliminated Lesotho (population: 2,067,000) in the first round of the 2013 Africa Cup of nations qualifiers after winning 1 - 0 in Sao Tome and getting a goalless draw in Maseru.

They will climb 28 places to 168th, their best ever ranking. Their previous record was 179th in August 2000. Just a quick reminder, Sao Tome have played no games between 16 November 2003 and 11 November 2011.

The Santomeans will now face Sierra Leone in the next round: 29 February at home and 15 June in Freetown.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2013 Africa Cup of Nations: A look at the qualification

In September 2010, CAF announced the qualifying system for the 2013 edition.

Countries that do not qualify for the Orange CAN Gabon – Equatorial Guinea 2012 will play a first round eliminatory, with direct elimination, with a view to finding fifteen teams. The period from 15 January 2012 to 15 February 2012 was chosen for this first round.

If Libya South Africa doesn’t qualify for the Orange CAN 2012, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will play home and away play-off and the winner will participate in the second round qualifiers.

I doubt they will trim the field to 15 teams during that period. Most likely it will be only a preliminary round. Here's why.Looking at the CAF 2014 World Cup calendar and at FIFA's match dates for 2012, you'll notice there are two conspicuous double match dates available for CAF: 7-11 September and 12-16 October.

There are 37 teams that didn't qualify for the 2012 edition. With South Africa hosting the 2013 event, that leaves 36 teams. Of course, that doesn't mean all 36 will want to play in the 2013 preliminaries.

The preliminary round should involve the bottom 12 teams in the FIFA rankings to trim the field to 30 teams.

Probably the second round will be in September, with the final round scheduled for October.

In 2010, the draw took place at the 2010 CAF Super Cup, on 20 February 2010. Next year this event is scheduled for 24-26 February, with the February 2012 FIFA Ranking set to be published on 15 February.


Looking at the intermediate February 2012 ranking, this is how the qualification could look:

Preliminary round

Pot 1: Guinea-Bissau, Swaziland, Madagascar, Lesotho, Seychelles, Comoros
Pot 2: Mauritius, Somalia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Djibouti, Sao Tome e Principe

Second round

Pot 1: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Zimbabwe, Algeria, Malawi, Cameroon, Uganda, Gambia, Central African Republic, Togo, Benin, Mozambique, Rwanda
Pot 2: Kenya, Tanzania, Congo DR, Ethiopia, Liberia, Congo, Namibia, Burundi, Chad plus six winners from the previous round.

Final round

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Libya, Guinea, Mali, Tunisia, Angola, Zambia, Morocco, Niger, Botswana, Sudan and the winner of Gabon/Equatorial Guinea
Pot 2: 15 winners from the previous round

It's quite possible to see matches like Côte d'Ivoire vs. Egypt, Ghana vs. Nigeria, Senegal vs. Cameroon or Morocco vs. Algeria in the final round.

This could be a disaster for CAF - and the sales of TV rights. In order to protect their flagship competition, CAF might create four pots in the final round.

Pot 1: Top 8 from the 2012 edition
Pot 2: the remaining 7 teams
Pot 3: Top 7 from the February 2012 FIFA ranking
Pot 4: the other 8 teams

and draw Pot 1 vs. Pot 4 and Pot 2 vs. Pot 3.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.