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Friday, November 18, 2016

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding update

More info in this post.

The usual 10000 simulations - based on the current list of fixtures. Teams are sorted on average pot over the 10000 sims.

Pot 1: Jordan, Oman, Bahrain, Kyrgyzstan, Korea DPR, Philippines
Pot 2: India, Palestine, Tajikistan, Hong Kong, Turkmenistan, Vietnam
Pot 3: Maldives, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Chinese Taipei, Myanmar
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, Kuwait, Bhutan, Guam

Pots are pretty much settled - only the last two pot 3 spots still to fight for, with Chinese Taipei and Myanmar heavy favorites over Malaysia and Singapore.

Pot 4

100.00% - Kuwait
100.00% - Bhutan
100.00% - Guam
99.99% - Cambodia
89.55% - Singapore
70.03% - Malaysia
27.49% - Myanmar
12.94% - Chinese Taipei

Pot 3

100.00% - Lebanon
100.00% - Yemen
100.00% - Afghanistan
99.85% - Maldives
87.06% - Chinese Taipei
72.47% - Myanmar
29.97% - Malaysia
10.44% - Singapore
0.16% - Vietnam
0.04% - Turkmenistan
0.01% - Cambodia

Pot 2

100.00% - Palestine
100.00% - Tajikistan
100.00% - Hong Kong
99.98% - India
99.96% - Turkmenistan
99.84% - Vietnam
0.15% - Maldives
0.04% - Myanmar
0.02% - Philippines
0.01% - Singapore

Pot 1

100.00% - Jordan
100.00% - Oman
100.00% - Bahrain
100.00% - Kyrgyzstan
100.00% - Korea DPR
99.98% - Philippines
0.02% - India

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.


  1. if the match VIE_SYR still included, could it change something? VN could be in pot 2?

    1. No, only 15 extra points, not enough to overtake Korea DPR (last team in Pot 1 on average points).

  2. Why FIFA didn't include the match Vietnam win Syria 2-0 in May 2016 ?

    1. there would be at most 2 matches played on FIFA day (30 May - 7 June), so if the match had played in 29 May, it would have been counted.

  3. Replies
    1. A result is generated for each match based on Elo ratings of the teams involved. Repeat 10000 times.

    2. Could you give me 1 example, please !!!! Ex: Cambodia

  4. I will try to explain this as simple as possible.
    The number of goals each team scores in a match can be drawn out of a probability distribution. This distribution is based on the relative strength of both participants in the match, expressed in the elo home-team win expectancy. If you want to know more about this, see the ClubElo website.

    For each scheduled match you can draw a number out of the probability distribution for the number of goals scored in the match by the home-team and you can draw a number out of the probability distribution for the number of goals scored in the match by the away-team. This way you get a match-result for the match. And that for each scheduled match. One set of drawn results for all scheduled matches is called one simulation.
    Based on a set of drawn match-results a January 2017 ranking can be calculated which leads to certain teams ending in pot 1, certain teams ending in pot 2 etc.

    Each simulation of match-results of all scheduled matches can result in a different January 2017 ranking and thus in a different distribution of teams over the 4 pots.
    Finally, over all 10.000 simulation-results you can simply count for each team how many times they end in pot 1, how many times they end in pot 2 etc. And these are the probabilities Edgar presents in his post.

  5. It's was completely understand ,, Thank so much for you explanation.

  6. And could it have another last update ?

  7. or maybe AFC seedings as Play off Round ? Depend on Round 2 ranking