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Friday, October 5, 2012

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 19 October 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results we could see Myanmar climb 36 spots, with Finland, Guyana, Albania, St. Kitts and Nevis, Cambodia, Laos, Belarus and Congo DR climbing more than 15.


Wales would tumble 32 spots to 89th. while Cyprus, Congo, Armenia and Grenada would drop at least 14 places.


In the top 50, Montenegro, Republic of Ireland  and Venezuela would drop 7 or more spots, while Serbia, Turkey, USA, Ukraine and Jamaica would climb 7 or more spots.
About Finland - I've received two comments announcing FIFA have reinstated Finland's 2012 Baltic Cup matches on the list of FIFA "A" matches. However, Finland's results page is unchanged.

As I mentioned in the preview, Thailand will fall to its worst ever raking, dropping to at least 144th - at worst 155th. Their previous worst ever ranking was 141st in April 2012. This doesn't depend on the probable results.

Probable November 2012 rank - Team - Probable November 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1619 0 8
2 Germany 1481 0 22
3 Argentina 1266 1 58
4 Portugal 1237 -1 -22
5 England 1220 0 24
6 Italy 1169 2 63
7 Uruguay 1134 0 -6
8 Netherlands 1128 -2 -13
9 Colombia 1110 0 8
10 Croatia 1078 1 55
11 Greece 1065 -1 36
12 Switzerland 1053 3 70
13 Russia 1002 -1 -12
14 Brazil 994 0 -7
15 Mexico 984 4 59
16 Côte d'Ivoire 974 0 23
17 France 945 -4 -66
18 Chile 925 -1 -23
19 Ecuador 860 1 -42
20 Czech Republic 858 2 21
21 Denmark 851 -3 -93
22 Algeria 827 2 25
23 Serbia 824 10 118
24 Sweden 791 -3 -68
25 USA 776 7 56
26 Mali 772 1 13
27 Japan 770 -4 -48
28 Turkey 767 8 78
29 Ghana 762 2 40
30 Korea Republic 758 -5 -18
31 Belgium 755 -1 32
32 Norway 732 -6 -32
33 Australia 719 1 17
34 Bosnia-Herzegovina 703 -5 -37
35 Ukraine 686 7 56
36 Republic of Ireland 682 -8 -75
37 Panama 673 6 48
38 Egypt 648 2 14
39 Zambia 646 2 15
40 Peru 645 -3 -36
41 Slovenia 629 -6 -65
42 Paraguay 627 -4 -38
43 Tunisia 620 2 0
44 Slovakia 619 4 11
45 Jamaica 605 7 22
46 Venezuela 600 -7 -35
47 Gabon 597 0 -13
48 Libya 593 5 15
49 Hungary 589 0 -4
50 Central African Republic 581 -1 -12
51 Bulgaria 571 4 6
52 Romania 557 -6 -62
53 Haiti 553 7 29
53 Nigeria 553 10 42
55 Poland 546 -1 -27
56 Iran 543 2 -6
56 Montenegro 543 -12 -80
58 Honduras 540 8 40
59 Scotland 533 -3 -23
60 Austria 526 -1 -2
61 Canada 523 0 7
62 Guinea 522 0 7
63 Cameroon 520 8 45
64 Cape Verde Islands 511 -13 -76
65 Finland 496 23 89
66 Albania 491 18 77
67 Trinidad and Tobago 490 10 48
68 Morocco 482 7 31
69 Sierra Leone 479 -2 -20
70 Belarus 478 17 68
71 Costa Rica 476 1 11
72 Senegal 471 -4 -21
73 Estonia 467 -4 -18
74 Georgia 464 -9 -37
75 Uzbekistan 460 -5 -19
76 Benin 457 -2 4
77 Israel 452 5 29
78 Angola 446 5 27
79 Armenia 444 -15 -59
80 Jordan 437 -2 -4
81 South Africa 430 -5 -18
82 Bolivia 424 -10 -41
82 China PR 424 3 11
84 Burkina Faso 423 7 31
84 Guatemala 423 -3 -8
86 El Salvador 422 -8 -19
87 Korea DPR 421 -1 10
88 Congo DR 416 15 71
89 Wales 407 -32 -144
90 Togo 406 3 29
91 New Zealand 404 1 14
92 Iraq 390 -12 -49
93 Uganda 385 -3 -9
94 Zimbabwe 383 -5 -13
95 Oman 380 0 10
96 Dominican Republic 368 6 22
97 Sudan 349 3 -2
98 Qatar 345 3 -5
99 Equatorial Guinea 340 6 12
100 Malawi 337 -4 -28
101 Lithuania 334 9 23
102 Liberia 333 -4 -24
103 Guyana 329 19 53
104 St. Kitts and Nevis 327 18 51
105 Lebanon 321 4 7
106 Mozambique 318 -7 -34
107 Kuwait 317 5 9
108 Iceland 314 -11 -48
109 Saudi Arabia 313 4 10
110 Congo 309 -16 -65
111 Botswana 299 9 22
112 United Arab Emirates 295 4 7
113 Bahrain 293 2 2
113 Ethiopia 293 5 9
115 FYR Macedonia 292 -11 -42
116 New Caledonia 288 -3 -15
117 Namibia 287 -9 -31
118 Chad 282 7 16
119 Antigua and Barbuda 281 -13 -43
119 Latvia 281 -1 -3
121 Azerbaijan 277 -10 -32
122 Northern Ireland 274 -5 -13
122 Rwanda 274 2 2
124 Puerto Rico 265 5 21
124 Suriname 265 6 22
126 Cyprus 258 -19 -63
127 Burundi 255 8 23
128 Kenya 248 0 -14
129 Sao Tome e Principe 240 3 0
130 Tanzania 237 2 -3
131 Bermuda 235 -11 -42
132 Nicaragua 233 6 23
133 Solomon Islands 227 8 25
134 Tajikistan 225 2 5
134 Turkmenistan 225 -9 -41
136 Niger 223 1 5
136 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 223 7 33
138 Vietnam 219 2 16
139 Tahiti 215 -12 -50
140 Moldova 198 5 11
141 Gambia 186 -10 -56
142 Belize 179 2 -9
142 Luxembourg 179 0 -12
142 Philippines 179 5 1
145 Thailand 177 -6 -29
146 Syria 172 4 3
147 Palestine 170 2 0
148 Grenada 166 -14 -68
148 Malta 166 5 10
148 Myanmar 166 36 106
151 Cuba 163 -5 -16
152 Barbados 158 0 0
153 Aruba 154 1 0
154 Dominica 151 2 5
154 Lesotho 151 4 16
156 Kazakhstan 150 -9 -28
157 Curacao 149 -6 -17
158 Liechtenstein 147 -3 -3
159 Faroe Islands 138 -1 3
160 Maldives 135 0 2
161 Hong Kong 134 -1 1
162 Yemen 131 -5 -10
163 Singapore 127 -1 1
164 Samoa 124 0 0
165 Afghanistan 121 1 -1
165 Fiji 121 2 0
167 India 116 1 2
167 Nepal 116 -2 -7
169 Bangladesh 114 0 2
169 Malaysia 114 -7 -12
171 Cambodia 110 18 68
172 Madagascar 106 -1 0
173 Indonesia 103 -3 -8
174 Vanuatu 99 -2 0
175 Guinea-Bissau 98 -2 0
175 Laos 98 18 60
177 Chinese Taipei 90 -1 10
178 Tonga 87 -4 0
179 American Samoa 85 -4 0
180 St. Lucia 80 5 25
181 Pakistan 72 -4 0
182 Guam 71 -4 0
183 Sri Lanka 68 -3 0
184 Bahamas 66 -3 0
184 Montserrat 66 -3 0
186 Mongolia 55 -1 0
187 Cayman Islands 51 -4 -14
188 US Virgin Islands 50 -9 -20
189 Eritrea 45 -2 0
190 Somalia 43 -2 0
191 Seychelles 39 -1 0
192 Papua New Guinea 38 1 0
193 Comoros 36 -3 -3
194 British Virgin Islands 34 1 0
195 Swaziland 30 -5 -9
196 Cook Islands 28 0 0
197 Brunei Darussalam 26 6 21
198 Macau 22 0 2
199 Kyrgyzstan 20 -1 0
199 South Sudan 20 -1 0
201 Djibouti 17 -4 -8
202 Andorra 13 -1 0
202 Mauritius 13 -1 0
204 Anguilla 4 0 0
205 Mauritania 3 0 0
206 Bhutan 0 1 0
206 San Marino 0 1 0
206 Timor-Leste 0 0 -2
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 1 0

33 comments:

  1. Thanks a lot Ed.

    A defeat of Côte d'Ivoire against Senegal in Dakar and a victory of Algeria against Libya in Blida will put Algeria as the top african teams in the first time in history. I can see Brazil dropping again and again until next June where they have the chance to gain some points from Copa America. Organizing the Fifa World Cup has become a nightmare to organizers.

    Playing just friendlies (match weight 1) for about three years will be harmful to any team. Another difficulty finding a strong opponent for a friendly is another part of the problem as everyone os concerned with World Cup Qualifiers. Poor Brazil.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Brahim, I think you're confused by all the "Ed"s around here.

      I'm Edgar, from Romania, the owner of the blog.

      The Ed you've been interacting with is from the Netherlands and is highly knowledgeable about the FIFA raking, UEFA coefficient (and transport planning issues :) ).

      Delete
    2. Then Sorry Edgar and thanks for again the good work.

      Delete
    3. I knew I should have adopted a different name, to keep things simple around here :D, But hey, it's just my name.

      No worries Brahim, you will get all the answers you need here on this site, from Edgar (or from me).

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    4. I don't have a problem either. I was thinking that Edgar and Ed are the same person. I have to account for this from this moment.

      I was the first person to report your ranking previews on Arab forums in 2009 (but people still think that Fifa manipulates the ranking and that there is no Maths behind). Your website is now very popular there.

      Delete
    5. Thanks Brahim - I do get lots of visits from kooora.com :)

      I saw some of the reactions. When Israel was high in the rankings some said it's a Sionist conspiracy. What are they saying now when Israel recently hit their lowest ever ranking? :)

      Delete
    6. They are relaxed now, for sure :). People usually evaluate teams on their performances on tournaments like World Cup or Continental Finals. They disregard good results at qualifiers and friendlies that are important as more games are played than in tournaments, but the point with Israel is that Israel couldn't qualify to the Euro or to the World Cup. I remember that they were close third in a tight group with Greece in WC2010.

      Algeria (I am Algerian) has a similar story now. Missing the last African Cup of Nations and being second behind Cote d'Ivoire is suprising to Arab observers. But Algeria performing very good within last year winning 7 games and losing a single game to deserve the current position.

      While filling the results for the last few year, I discovered a funny thing. Danmark highly ranked by Fifa loosing most of its friendly games even against moderate teams. I couldn't explain it. Still they perform extremely well at official games to achieve such a position.

      Delete
  2. Hi Edgar:

    Please amended Regulation: Place beat Algeria on Libya

    Will be arranged Algeria between 12 and 21 with 920 points

    If you lose against Ivory Coast, Senegal and Algeria beat Libya, Algeria will be the first Africa next month

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Edgar,
    any idea if the ranking points gained from AFF Suzuki Cup 2012 matches will be counted as friendlies or as competitive matches?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Andrew,

    these matches are considered friendlies for ranking calculations, because they have no qualifying purpose for the continental championship.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hey,
    Sudan lost their case and were punished with a 3:0 loss in the Sudan - Zambia game for fielding an ineligible player. That will probably heaviiy influence their points in the FIFA ranking

    ReplyDelete
  7. This WC-qualifier was played on June 2 2012.
    Sudan loses 49 FIFA points (14% of their current total) as a result of this decision. Zambia gains 41 FIFA points (if calculated with the ranking of October 2012) or 35 FIFA points (if calculated with the ranking of May 2012)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does Zambia get FIFA points for a 3:0 default win, despite not really playing?

      Delete
    2. Yes for sure, but FIFA will possibly use the October 2012 ranking to compute the points gained by Zambia instead of th May 2012 ranking. It is difficult to know this now until the November ranking is issued. This is going to Zambia ahead of Ghana in the group.

      Delete
    3. You're right Brahim. FIFA will most likely use the October ranking. However, the result hasn't been changed on FIFA.com as Sudan can appeal.

      Delete
  8. Massive problem for Ghana, who now has to win ALL their games to qualify from the group.

    ReplyDelete
  9. thanks for all the good work
    Algeria.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Edgar. Philippines just held Bahrain last night. Does it mean that Philippines will still earn points despite the draw because of higher ranking of Bahrain?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, since according to Elo the Azkals were expected to lose.

      Delete
  11. Hi! Please look again at FIFA page - the results of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland matches from Baltic Cup (1 and 3 June) have been restored. Best regards from Estonia!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know, other matches have also been restored.

      Delete
  12. With Japan's victory in the Stade de France, unless France can get something in Spain, they're really going to suffer in the next ranking...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Going to be a huge topple in points for Uruguay... They will drop to 10th/11th after today...

    ReplyDelete
  14. Devastation is coming for the top teams in Europe in the next ranking.

    Spain's draw with France will cost them 47pts, dropping to 1564.

    Germany's capitulation against Sweden will see them drop 38pts to a total of 1421.

    Portugal, who's poor performances have seen them drop to third in their group behind Israel, will plummet 81pts to 1178.

    Argentina profit big time from their two wins, gaining 141pts to go to a total of 1349, which will put them well clear in 3rd.

    England's failure in Poland means they can't take advantage of Portugal's plunge. They drop 29pts to 1167, just behind Portugal.

    Netherlands despite two victories drop 13pts to 1128.

    Uruguay have been destroyed on the pitch and the ranking. A drop of 93pts to 1047.

    Italy take advantage with two good wins, going up 63pts to 1169.

    Colombia's march continues with another two victories. +8pts to 1110.

    Greece down 25pts to 1004.

    Croatia up 55pts to 1078.

    Russia up 70pts to 1084. Capello has them clicking as I expected he would. Fools we have over here. Russia, 4 wins, 4 clean sheets.

    France drew in Spain, but still plummet 66pts to 945.

    Brazil down 7pts to 994. They have annihilated their last 3 opponents though. Are they starting to turn the corner?

    So let's see, top 20...

    1. Spain - 1564
    2. Germany - 1421
    3. Argentina - 1349
    4. Portugal - 1178
    5. Italy - 1169
    6. England - 1167
    7. Netherlands - 1128
    8. Colombia - 1110
    9. Russia - 1084
    10. Croatia - 1078
    11. Uruguay - 1047
    12. Greece - 1004
    13. Brazil - 994
    14. Mexico - 984
    15. Ivory Coast - 974
    16. Switzerland - 966
    17. Ecuador - 951
    18. France - 945
    19. Algeria - 907
    20. Belgium - 881 (+10!)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Brasil - Technically their last three opponents were Iraq, Japan and Argentina.

      Interesting to see Algeria in the top 20... can't really fathom that, while Zambia, Ghana or even Mali are way behind them... I gather Ghana's pathetic friendly track record influences their points average.

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    2. I was thinking about China for opponent three.

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    3. Algeria have a really strong 100% year.

      2-0 vs Central Africa (not sure if this one is in or not)
      1-0 vs Tunisia
      2-1 vs Gambia
      3-0 vs Niger
      4-0 vs Rwanda
      1-2 vs Mali
      4-1 vs Gambia
      1-0 vs Libya
      2-0 vs Libya

      7/8 wins, 5/6 competitive, 1 loss.

      Delete
    4. I believe the Central Africa match should drop for the next release. It was played Oct 2011.

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    5. Still... a good year regardless.

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