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Friday, October 19, 2012

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 preview (II)

Next update: 2 November 2012.

11 matches left before 3 November, the deadline I think FIFA will use. A couple of 2013 Gold Cup qualifiers in the Caribbean and a couple of friendlies in Vietnam.The results of these matches will not affect the top 90.

On 9 October, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee has declared the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying match Sudan-Zambia of 2 June 2012 to be lost by forfeit by Sudan (0-3), but the result still appears as 2-0 win for Sudan. However, for my calculations I have used the 0-3 result.



Minimum/maximum points and lowest/highest possible ranking for the teams involved in these matches:


Dominican Republic 327 406 105 91
Guyana 264 329 129 104
Puerto Rico 248 313 132 111
Turkmenistan 219 254 140 128
Vietnam 188 238 143 132
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 179 296 145 117
Curacao 134 308 163 115
Malaysia 127 142 164 157
Laos 87 146 177 157
St. Lucia 33 278 197 122

In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the minimum possible.



Russia replace Uruguay in the top 10.

Best movers:

30 - Niger
27 - Myanmar
21 - Bolivia and FYR Macedonia

Worst movers:

-20 - Congo
-19 - Cyprus
-18 - Armenia and Sudan

Best movers in the top 50:

19 - Hungary
15 - Bulgaria
14 - Iran

Worst movers in the top 50:

-14 - Slovenia
-13 - Ukraine
-9 - Republic of Ireland, Serbia and Venezuela

Four teams will improve their best ever rankings:

Algeria (19 - 24 in October 2012)
Haiti (57 - 60 in October 2012)
St. Kitts and Nevis (106 to 104 - 108 in July 2004)
Philippines (145 to 142 - 147 in October 2012)
Timor-Leste (187 to 186 - 197 in December 2008)
Ecuador (17 - 17 in September 2012)
Anguilla (205 - 205 in July 2006)
Thailand (153 to 151 - 141 in April 2012)
Hong Kong (173 to 171 - 169 in December 2011)
Eritrea (192 to 191 - 190 in September 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (200 - 198 in October 2012)
South Sudan (200 - 199 in August 2012)
Djibouti (202 - 201 in December 2004)
Mauritania (206 - 205 in October 2012)

Zambia replace Egypt as Africa's 5th team.

Haiti replace Honduras as CONCACAF's 5th team.

Colombia and Uruguay switch places, with Los Cafeteros now 2nd in South America. Ecuador replace Chile as CONMEBOL's 5th team.

Italy replace Netherlands in the top 5, with Gli Azzurri now 4th. England drop to 5th in Europe.

November 2012 rank - Team - November 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1564 0 -47
2 Germany 1421 0 -38
3 Argentina 1349 1 141
4 Portugal 1178 -1 -81
5 Italy 1169 3 63
6 England 1167 -1 -29
7 Netherlands 1128 -1 -13
8 Colombia 1110 1 8
9 Russia 1084 3 70
10 Croatia 1078 1 55
11 Uruguay 1047 -4 -93
12 Greece 1004 -2 -25
13 Brazil 994 1 -7
14 Mexico 984 5 59
15 Côte d'Ivoire 974 1 23
16 Switzerland 966 -1 -17
17 Ecuador 951 3 49
18 France 938 -5 -73
19 Algeria 907 5 105
20 Belgium 881 10 158
21 Chile 853 -4 -95
22 Denmark 851 -4 -93
23 Sweden 826 -2 -33
24 Japan 810 -1 -8
25 Czech Republic 806 -3 -31
26 Norway 778 0 14
27 USA 776 5 56
28 Mali 772 -1 13
29 Ghana 762 2 40
30 Hungary 753 19 160
31 Bosnia-Herzegovina 746 -2 6
32 Korea Republic 728 -7 -48
33 Australia 719 1 17
34 Zambia 698 7 67
35 Montenegro 691 9 68
36 Paraguay 690 2 25
37 Republic of Ireland 682 -9 -75
38 Romania 669 8 50
39 Turkey 639 -3 -50
40 Bulgaria 627 15 62
40 Egypt 627 0 -7
42 Serbia 626 -9 -80
43 Slovakia 619 5 11
44 Iran 611 14 62
44 Peru 611 -7 -70
46 Panama 609 -3 -16
46 Tunisia 609 -1 -11
48 Venezuela 600 -9 -35
49 Slovenia 593 -14 -101
50 Jamaica 586 2 3
51 Bolivia 585 21 120
52 Central African Republic 581 -3 -12
52 Gabon 581 -5 -29
54 Poland 579 0 6
55 Ukraine 575 -13 -55
56 Honduras 572 10 72
57 Haiti 553 3 29
57 Nigeria 553 6 42
59 Libya 545 -6 -33
60 Canada 526 1 10
61 Sierra Leone 521 6 22
62 Cameroon 520 9 45
63 Cape Verde Islands 511 -12 -76
64 Costa Rica 509 8 44
65 Georgia 499 0 -2
66 Wales 497 -9 -54
67 Albania 496 17 82
68 Austria 492 -9 -36
69 Uzbekistan 490 1 11
70 Scotland 488 -14 -68
71 Guinea 485 -9 -30
72 Morocco 482 3 31
73 Togo 479 20 102
74 Belarus 478 13 68
75 Senegal 471 -7 -21
76 Guatemala 467 5 36
77 Benin 457 -3 4
78 Israel 452 4 29
79 Angola 446 4 27
79 Trinidad and Tobago 446 -2 4
81 Korea DPR 445 5 34
82 Armenia 444 -18 -59
83 FYR Macedonia 431 21 97
84 Estonia 430 -15 -55
84 South Africa 430 -8 -18
86 Oman 428 9 58
87 China PR 424 -2 11
88 Burkina Faso 423 3 31
89 Jordan 420 -11 -21
90 Finland 411 -2 4
91 New Zealand 404 1 14
92 El Salvador 402 -14 -39
93 Equatorial Guinea 397 12 69
94 Iceland 392 3 30
95 Iraq 390 -15 -49
96 Uganda 385 -6 -9
97 Zimbabwe 383 -8 -13
98 Congo DR 360 5 15
99 Northern Ireland 356 18 69
100 Malawi 337 -4 -28
101 Ethiopia 333 17 49
102 New Caledonia 330 11 27
102 Qatar 330 -1 -20
104 Dominican Republic 327 -2 -19
104 St. Kitts and Nevis 327 18 51
106 Niger 324 31 106
107 Latvia 322 11 38
108 United Arab Emirates 320 8 32
109 Kuwait 318 3 10
109 Mozambique 318 -10 -34
111 Lebanon 313 -2 -1
111 Saudi Arabia 313 2 10
113 Liberia 312 -15 -45
114 Congo 309 -20 -65
115 Botswana 299 5 22
115 Namibia 299 -7 -19
117 Lithuania 296 -7 -15
118 Sudan 288 -18 -63
119 Chad 282 6 16
120 Antigua and Barbuda 281 -14 -43
121 Rwanda 280 3 8
122 Azerbaijan 277 -11 -32
123 Bahrain 270 -8 -21
124 Suriname 265 6 22
125 Guyana 264 -3 -12
126 Cyprus 258 -19 -63
127 Burundi 255 8 23
128 Kenya 248 0 -14
128 Puerto Rico 248 1 4
130 Moldova 241 15 54
131 Sao Tome e Principe 240 1 0
132 Tanzania 237 0 -3
133 Bermuda 235 -13 -42
134 Nicaragua 233 4 23
135 Tajikistan 225 1 5
136 Turkmenistan 219 -11 -47
137 Tahiti 215 -10 -50
138 Kazakhstan 200 9 22
139 Cuba 198 7 19
140 Vietnam 188 0 -15
141 Gambia 186 -10 -56
142 Philippines 184 5 6
143 Belize 179 1 -9
143 Luxembourg 179 -1 -12
143 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 179 0 -11
146 Syria 172 4 3
147 Palestine 168 2 -2
148 Grenada 166 -14 -68
148 Malta 166 5 10
148 Solomon Islands 166 -7 -36
151 Thailand 160 -12 -46
152 Barbados 158 0 0
153 Aruba 154 1 0
154 Dominica 151 2 5
155 Myanmar 149 29 89
156 Liechtenstein 147 -1 -3
157 Lesotho 140 1 5
158 Faroe Islands 138 0 3
159 Maldives 135 1 2
160 Curacao 134 -9 -32
161 Yemen 131 -4 -10
162 Malaysia 127 0 1
162 Singapore 127 0 1
164 Indonesia 124 6 13
164 Samoa 124 0 0
166 Afghanistan 121 0 -1
166 Fiji 121 1 0
168 India 116 0 2
168 Nepal 116 -3 -7
170 Bangladesh 114 -1 2
171 Hong Kong 108 -11 -25
172 Madagascar 106 -1 0
173 Vanuatu 99 -1 0
174 Guinea-Bissau 98 -1 0
175 Chinese Taipei 90 1 10
176 Laos 87 17 49
176 Tonga 87 -2 0
178 American Samoa 85 -3 0
179 Pakistan 72 -2 0
180 Guam 71 -2 0
181 Sri Lanka 68 -1 0
182 Bahamas 66 -1 0
182 Montserrat 66 -1 0
184 Swaziland 56 6 17
185 Mongolia 55 0 0
186 Brunei Darussalam 52 17 47
186 Timor-Leste 52 20 50
188 Cayman Islands 51 -5 -14
189 US Virgin Islands 50 -10 -20
190 Cambodia 49 -1 7
191 Eritrea 45 -4 0
192 Somalia 43 -4 0
193 Seychelles 39 -3 0
194 Papua New Guinea 38 -1 0
195 Comoros 36 -5 -3
196 British Virgin Islands 34 -1 0
197 St. Lucia 33 -12 -22
198 Cook Islands 28 -2 0
199 Macau 22 -1 2
200 Kyrgyzstan 20 -2 0
200 South Sudan 20 -2 0
202 Djibouti 17 -5 -8
203 Andorra 13 -2 0
203 Mauritius 13 -2 0
205 Anguilla 4 -1 0
206 Mauritania 3 -1 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

40 comments:

  1. Hi Edgar

    I have a hypotecial question. Côte d'Ivoire wins Africa Cup of Nations 2013, and qualify for the World Cup 2014, is it than possible that Côte d'Ivoire reach up to top 7 in FIFA World Rankings in December 2013 when the draw for the World Cup 2014 will be held? The reason why I ask is because there was also a Africa Cup of Nations in 2012, so Côte d'Ivoire have a chance of scoring alot "unusally" points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes you will lol , but wait to pas first tour ( algeria) and win the africa cup of nation loll

      Delete
  2. Hi there Jákup (if my guess is not completely off).

    Here's my answer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for a very good answer :) I hope you will inform the FA of Côte d'Ivoire of this possibility (don't know if they are aware of it). It could be fantastic for African football to get a one seeded team to the World Cup.

      Thanks for the fantastic job you are doing

      Regards
      Jákup

      Delete
  3. Algeria is Rising UP, Glory For ALGERIA

    ReplyDelete
  4. For Zambia, does their match against Uganda this month actually count as a penalty shootout win? I know they won the shootout, but the lost the match and only got to the shootout because they won their previous match.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And supposedly using the tool, Uganda only get a draw even though they won the match. It's lunacy, and has come up before. Absolute lunacy. The two teams were equal and had to be seperated by penalties, yet Zambia get 5pts and Uganda get 1, when it should just be 3 each.

      Delete
    2. And I don't know if I'm right, but I think if the order of legs was reversed, Uganda would get 4pts and Zambia would get 2pts.

      Delete
    3. You are completely right Lorric, it's lunacy.

      That's why UEFA had an amendment in their EURO 2012 regulations with regard to penalty shoot-outs in qualifying play-offs. The PSO explicitly did not count for the calculation of the UEFA country coefficient.
      FIFA is not there yet, but I hope they will see the light soon.

      Delete
    4. It particularly annoys me with it being Uganda that suffers, as they are a team on the cusp of qualifying and that could hurt their chances undeservedly. Last cycle they were a goal away, this time a penalty shootout away from qualifying at the expense of the defending champion. I think they deserve to qualify, and this victory should have boosted them into contention for a top seed for the next qualifying cycle, which I think I deserve, given the inconsistency of African teams, two narrowest of margin failures to qualify is good enough to be top seeded in my book. Now they'll probably miss out.

      Delete
    5. *which I think THEY deserve*

      England is my team, not Uganda :)

      Delete
    6. It is FIFA that should be called to account to explain themselves.

      Delete
    7. Thanks Edgar, that is what seemed to be happening as ugly as it seems to me. As Ed said - lunacy!

      Delete
  5. Haiti in top 60??!! They are not even in final 12 of Concacaf WCQ/second last round Concacaf!?!?

    ReplyDelete
  6. PHILIPPINES is moving UP :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. PHILIPPINES AGAIN MAKES HISTORY.....FUTURE SUZUKI CUP CHAMPIONS

    ReplyDelete
  8. For Thailand, You get 160 points, I get 171 and FIFA gets 177. Is there some games moved from ranking or what?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I found my mistake and I see Thailand-Laos is moved, ok.

      Delete
  9. Hi Edgar!
    Colombia's sudden jump into top 10 spurred me into calculating alternative rankings (by Tobcoach's precedent :) )

    (btw, this is for October rankings)
    100%-100%-100%-100%
    3279 esp 1
    2818 ned 6
    2777 ger 2
    2497 bra 14
    2417 eng 5
    2358 arg 4
    2327 por 3
    2280 uru 7
    2107 ita 8
    2050 sui 15
    1999 cro 11
    1995 ivo 16
    1965 gre 10
    1944 chi 17
    1925 fra 13
    1923 rus 12
    1822 col 9

    50%-50%-100%-100%
    2379 esp 1
    2070 ger 2
    1937 ned 6
    1822 por 3
    1764 eng 5
    1702 uru 7
    1694 arg 4
    1670 ita 8
    1642 bra 14
    1543 cro 11
    1510 gre 10
    1500 fra 13
    1496 rus 12
    1487 sui 15
    1478 col 9

    25%-50%-75%-100%
    1891 esp 1
    1692 ger 2
    1484 por 3
    1312 arg 4
    1311 ned 6
    1307 uru 7
    1301 eng 5
    1251 ita 8
    1182 col 9
    1158 gre 10
    1142 cro 11
    1126 fra 13
    1102 rus 12
    1049 den 18
    1046 chi 17
    1040 ivo 16
    1037 bra 14

    And this made me think of another alternative way:
    What if the results from the big tournaments WOULDN'T AGE?

    Could you calculate rankings with those results always staying 100%?
    Also, perhaps, with the last continental championship results staying 100%, while the WC would be 50%?

    Maybe that would be that ideal mix of valuing both the most important achievements - those at big tournaments - and the most recent form.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Vietnam 188 points, means Vietnam will lose Turkmenistan, Laos and Malaysia ??

    ReplyDelete
  11. I have recalculated the FIFA ranking by taking into account only games from the last 12 months. Surprisingly Spain is just third as Columbia despite their excellent performance at the previous Euro, friendlies and WC qualifiers. Argentina is taking the lead with a large margin ahead of Germany coming second despite their Euro semi-final. Columbia and Ecuador make it three teams from Latin America in the top 5. In Africa, Algeria take the lead over Côte d'Ivoire while Central African Republic make a surprising 18th position advancing the unlucky Dutch at the Euro and the WC host Brazil coming just 29th. (there might be errors vwith point totals for France and Italy.)

    1 ARG 810
    2 GER 751
    3 ESP 730
    3 COL 730
    5 ECU 685
    5 POR 646
    6 RUS 607
    7 ENG 602
    8 ITA 580
    9 CRO 579
    10 BEL 550
    11 MEX 547
    12 ALG 540
    13 CZE 521
    14 CIV 520
    15 MLI 510
    16 SUI 501
    17 GRE 471
    18 BOL 462
    19 FRA 446
    20 CTA 443
    21 BUL 434
    22 URU 414
    23 ZAM 413
    24 USA 407
    25 CGO 401
    26 GHA 398
    27 NED 397
    28 HUN 396
    29 ROU 391
    29 BRA 391
    31 CHI 375
    31 HAI 358
    32 SWE 349
    33 GAB 346
    34 MNE 345
    35 JPN 344
    36 TUN 336
    37 POL 334
    37 DEN 334
    39 KOR 333
    39 EQG 332
    40 NOR 323
    41 BEN 320
    42 PAR 314
    43 PAN 312
    44 LBY 311
    45 UKR 306
    46 IRN 305
    47 TRI 303
    48 BIH 300
    49 CAN 298
    50 HON 296

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A few differences in my file (though not complete):
      ESP: 764
      ITA: 619
      MLI: 535
      FRA: 460
      ZAM: 478 (what do you have for the 2-Jun-12 match vs Sudan and how many points in the Oct match vs Uganda?)

      Delete
    2. As for Argentina being the top, there are a few reasons-
      1) Argentina's friendlies have been against much higher ranked countries (and the one highly ranked team Spain had a friendly ended in England winning). Argentina's weakest was against a #16 Switzerland.

      2) Argentina had draws against the right teams in qualifiers - the lower ranked teams. They drew with their two lowest ranked teams in qualifiers. Compare this to Spain who just dropped points against France - their highest ranked team in qualifying.

      3) The extra friendly Spain played in September nearly canceled out their advantage in importance factor (average of 1.97 vs 1.95, without the friendly it is 2.03 and with a qualifier it is 2.06) that came with the continental final.

      Delete
  12. Ryan, Brahim

    some small remarks:
    - FRA should have 452 points in November. Their friendlies against Iceland and Serbia last May are finally included but with match points based on the October ranking.
    - CGO 401? I arrive at 240. I don't quite see where this big difference comes from. Their total FIFA points in November is 309....
    - LBY should have 305 points in November. Their friendly against Sudan (August 26th) is finally included but match points are based on October ranking.
    - Same goes for TRI and CAN, their mutual friendly (August 15th) is finally included but with match points based on October ranking: TRI 259 points and CAN 300 points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ryan,

      Thanks for the remarks. I have few issues with a number of teams. I agree on your analysis why Argentina advance Spain and other top teams.

      Can you make a simulation for the last 12 months by just including official games? Brazil didn't play any official games after Copa America in July 2011.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the information Ed (and cjeagle below)!

      Delete
    3. Brahim - What are you meaning by simulation? Are you just wanting a FIFA rating without including friendlies? As you mentioned, Brazil is not easy to work with due to their lack of qualifiers.

      Delete
    4. Brahim - to add, what would you done with the countries that have not had five qualifiers/continental finals matches (UEFA teams that didn't participate in the play-off/Euro 2012 last year as well as a few of the CAF teams)?

      Delete
    5. Yes, the rule says that dividing by 5 even if number of games is less than five. Probably we should use 3 as divisor.

      Simulation often means running a large number of runs, but I mean here a single run excluding friendlies for the last year.

      Delete
    6. Brhim,
      The top 75 countries in the Oct FIFA rankings (not including Brazil/South Africa) with their ratings from this year based solely on qualifiers or continental championships.
      ESP 1178.44
      GER 1122.56
      ARG 1025.36
      BEL 993.13
      ITA 887.10
      SUI 849.38
      POR 821.82
      COL 814.64
      RUS 798.00
      ZAM 782.99
      MEX 779.90
      CRO 767.44
      ECU 737.50
      CZE 726.06
      ENG 710.75
      ROU 675.00
      CIV 665.60
      HUN 646.88
      GRE 636.19
      ALG 626.73
      BUL 621.88
      NOR 620.00
      FRA 589.14
      MLI 576.24
      NED 570.00
      GAB 550.24
      USA 536.07
      BOL 523.57
      SWE 496.50
      GHA 494.07
      URU 493.21
      TUN 484.18
      VEN 469.29
      BIH 467.92
      CHI 454.29
      UZB 453.04
      JAM 449.53
      HAI 447.15
      CTA 442.54
      JPN 441.06
      IRN 432.15
      DEN 429.83
      EGY 417.10
      PAN 414.54
      POL 404.33
      SRB 386.25
      MNE 384.00
      NGA 380.91
      LBY 380.86
      UKR 379.50
      CRC 378.77
      AUS 378.09
      BEN 374.64
      KOR 373.49
      HON 372.17
      SLE 364.78
      CAN 353.65
      GUI 337.98
      PAR 333.21
      TRI 304.92
      GEO 302.50
      SVK 301.88
      CMR 299.46
      MAR 289.08
      IRL 277.50
      PER 273.21
      WAL 270.00
      TUR 259.58
      CPV 256.93
      AUT 176.67
      SVN 174.38
      SCO 163.13
      ARM 152.50
      EST 135.42
      SEN 113.64

      For reference, South Africa is below using three as the divisor in spite of only two matches and Brazil is below with just their friendlies:
      RSA 104.63
      BRA 391.47

      Delete
  13. Kuwait's match against the Philippines in October has been removed by FIFA per this AFC bulletin:

    "This match was not authorised by the AFC in accordance with the FIFA regulations governing international matches."

    Earlier FIFA removed also Kuwait`s friendly against Syria on 11. October (1-1) for same reason.

    So you might need to adjust your rankings for the affected countries.

    ReplyDelete
  14. thanks for the info!

    This is beneficial to the Philippines: they jump from 184 to 193 points. Kuwait remains on 318 points.

    ReplyDelete
  15. How does that affect the November FIFA rankings in terms of the range the Philippines might end up so far?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe it will be between 141 - 144 (as opposed to 143 - 145). St. Vincent and the Grenadines have passed them with the victory on Sunday.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Ryan. Either way it will be the highest FIFAranking that the Philippines will have achieved. St Vincent and Grenadines win also pushed back the Philippines one ranking down in the ELO rankings as well.

      Delete
    3. 143rd now after the Kuwait loss was accepted by FIFA.

      Delete
  16. Colombian fans: be prepared!! In the December rankings, Colombia could rise to new hights. Without prediction of the games to come, Colombia could be as high as 4th in the rankings.

    Colombia still has a friendly game against Brazil to play on Nov 14th, and that could turn around the rankings big time, because all the big countries play friendly games.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Apparently there has been a retraction by FIFA and they are now authorizing the Philippine-Kuwait match again as they listed the match as an A match in the latest lists:

    FIFA clarified that the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), which is also under FIFA, has authorized the match.

    "We were just informed now that AFC authorized this match. So it will be back a A-match. We apologize for that," FIFA told the Azkals’ official website.


    This means that game’s result will affect the ratings of Kuwait and the Philippines in the FIFA world rankings for November.




    ReplyDelete
  18. Finland's Baltic Cup results are now shown at Fifa.com so they will be included in the next rankings

    http://www.fifa.com/associations/association=fin/fixturesresults/gender=m/index.html#

    ReplyDelete