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Friday, October 19, 2012

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (19 October 2012)

Next update: October 2012

Includes matches up to and including 17 October 2012.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 ranking. We now have 50% of the final formula - only the last time frame still to be completed.

1 Spain 787
2 Germany 744
3 Argentina 683
4 Portugal 595
5 Italy 586
6 England 585
7 Netherlands 573
8 Russia 547
8 Uruguay 547
10 Colombia 542
11 Croatia 538
12 Greece 511
13 Mexico 481
14 Côte d'Ivoire 480
15 Switzerland 468
16 France 465
17 Ecuador 461
18 Belgium 457
19 Brazil 454
20 Algeria 434

Italy replace Uruguay in the list of seeds.

Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be:  Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Portugal, Italy, England and the Netherlands.

Top 3 teams by confederation:

AFC: Japan (24), Korea Republic (30), Australia (33)
CAF: Côte d'Ivoire (14), Algeria (20), Ghana (27)
CONCACAF: Mexico (13), USA (34), Panama (43)
CONMEBOL: Argentina (3), Uruguay (8), Colombia (10)
OFC: New Zealand (87), New caledonia (103), Tahiti (137)
UEFA: Spain (1), Germany (2), Portugal (4)


  1. Hi Edgar,
    Could you please post the breakdown of each team by year?
    And if you can, please post it from now on, on the final update on each month too...


    1. I meant breakdown by time frame...

    2. Will do starting with the November update.

    3. Thank you very much!

    4. Amir, you have that (well, not exactly, but close enough) on

  2. Question from here

    "Hi Edgar

    I have a hypotecial question. Côte d'Ivoire wins Africa Cup of Nations 2013, and qualify for the World Cup 2014, is it than possible that Côte d'Ivoire reach up to top 7 in FIFA World Rankings in December 2013 when the draw for the World Cup 2014 will be held? The reason why I ask is because there was also a Africa Cup of Nations in 2012, so Côte d'Ivoire have a chance of scoring alot "unusally" points."

    Answer: Yes it's quite possible, but they need to handle their friendlies very carefully. It also depends on what opponents will they have at the 2013 AFCON.

    1. The answer is Yes. This is a chance to Côte d'Ivoire to be seeded for the World Cup 2014. With two successive AFCON in 2012 and 2013, this will raise African teams doing well in the next tournament. I think that the top 20 you gave can change a lot with the next 12 months as the coming games will count 50% of the total points. But honestly I don't see any African team deserving to be seeded. Ghana with reaching the quarter finals and loosing by penalties after missing a last-minute qualification penalty in extra-time are reasonably the team that deserve being seeded if any. But Ghana need to win all games as Zambia have big chances to take the points from Sudan.

      Have Portugal been seeded for World Cup before or had never this chance? I see France missing while Russia is a short way from being seeded especially after the excellent start at the qualifiers.

  3. Also remember that the AFCON 2013 winner gets to play the confed cup, so a good performance their by Ghana or Cote d'Ivoire could shoot them into a high position in the rankings.

    And for deserving it... If they get the points than Cote d'Ivoire or Ghana deserve it no less than Russia, Argentina, England, Portugal or Colombia...

  4. What does it mean that we have 50% of the final formula? Sorry for my ignorance. Thanks you.

    1. The ratings are based on a 20%-30%-50%-100% weighting. Since we have the 20%, 30%, and 50% time periods, we have half of the weighted value (though it is roughly 3/4 of the matches, due to the weightings, it is less).

    2. Thank you Ryan. I think I now understand :P

  5. @Brahim

    Portugal have never been seeded for the FIFA World Cup draw.


    Thanks for answering!