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Friday, October 21, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA (July vs. October 2011)

This is what actually happened using the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams.

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Group A: Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Scotland, Macedonia, Wales
Group B: Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia, Malta
Group C: Germany, Sweden, Republic of Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan
Group D: Netherlands, Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia, Andorra
Group E: Norway, Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus, Iceland
Group F: Portugal, Russia, Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg
Group G: Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia, Liechtenstein
Group H: England, Montenegro, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, San Marino
Group I: Spain, France, Belarus, Georgia, Finland

What would have happened had FIFA postponed the draw to October?

Wales would have jumped from Pot 6 to Pot 3.
Armenia would have jumped from Pot 5 to Pot 3.
Denmark would have climbed from Pot 2 to Pot 1.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Republic of Ireland and Switzerland would have climbed from Pot 3 to Pot 2.
Estonia would have climbed from Pot 5 to Pot 4.
Iceland and Luxembourg would have climbed from Pot 6 to Pot 5.

Norway would have dropped from Pot 1 to Pot 2.
Montenegro, Slovakia and Slovenia would have dropped from Pot 2 to Pot 3.
Belarus and Ukraine would have dropped from Pot 3 to Pot 4.
Bulgaria, Lithuania and Northern Ireland would have dropped from Pot 4 to Pot 5.
Cyprus, Faroe Islands and Moldova would have dropped from Pot 5 to Pot 6.

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, England, Greece, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia
Pot 2: Russia, Sweden, France, Switzerland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Norway, Republic of Ireland, Turkey
Pot 3: Slovenia, Hungary, Belgium, Israel, Montenegro, Slovakia, Wales, Armenia, Czech Republic
Pot 4: Scotland, Romania, Ukraine, Estonia, Belarus, Poland, Georgia, Albania, Austria
Pot 5: Bulgaria, Latvia, Finland, Northern Ireland, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg
Pot 6: Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Group A: Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Israel, Poland, Iceland, Cyprus
Group B: Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Scotland, Bulgaria, Malta
Group C: Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Albania, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein
Group D: Netherlands, Norway, Czech Republic, Romania, Finland, Andorra
Group E: Denmark, Serbia, Slovenia, Belarus, Northern Ireland, Moldova
Group F: England, France, Hungary, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan
Group G: Croatia, Turkey, Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania, Faroe Islands
Group H: Italy, Sweden, Armenia, Austria, FYR Macedonia, San Marino
Group I: Spain, Russia, Wales, Ukraine, Latvia

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.


  1. Very interesting.

    Wales (and everyone that drew them) will be gutted to have got them as a bottom seed.

  2. Goes to show that it doesn't really matter which pot you're in. The group you've put Wales in if they were in pot 3 is much harder than the pot 6 one.

  3. It mattered for Norway. I think our chances would have been around 10 % of going through from the 'new' group, while in the old group it's about 50/50.

    Also, the Wales group is made artificially hard by the host penalty to Ukraine.

  4. thank god not them im english!

  5. september ranking would be epic!

  6. did you know that gibraltar will be members of uefa by june 2012 !

    according to gfa

  7. I found it strange that Norway were seeded in the top spot because they have not qualified for a major tournament since Euro 2000.

    1. They've got good results in both friendlies and recent qualifiers (before the World Cup draw).