FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 November.
Two second round groups of the Caribbean Championship qualifiers will also take place in October, but I don't have the exact dates. However, they are scheduled after 19 October (my next update).
Spain still safe in first place. Even if they lose to Belarus and France, Germany would still be three points behind them even with wins against the Republic of Ireland and Sweden.
Thailand will fall to its worst ever raking, dropping to at least 144th - at worst 155th. Their previous worst ever ranking was 141st in April 2012.
Most points dropped (best case scenario):
-68 - Grenada
-56 - Gambia
-42 - Bermuda
-29 - Thailand
-20 - US Virgin Islands
-19 - Netherlands
-18 - Namibia
-18 - Slovenia
-14 - Cayman Islands
-10 - Yemen
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
29 - Haiti
23 - Burundi
23 - Nicaragua
22 - Dominican Republic
22 - Botswana
22 - Suriname
21 - Puerto Rico
16 - Chad
15 - Congo DR
12 - Equatorial Guinea
October 2012 rank - Country - October 2012 points - Minimum points - Maximum points
1 | Spain | 1611 | 1486 | 1619 |
2 | Germany | 1459 | 1305 | 1481 |
3 | Portugal | 1259 | 1164 | 1300 |
4 | Argentina | 1208 | 1093 | 1349 |
5 | England | 1196 | 1115 | 1220 |
6 | Netherlands | 1141 | 1019 | 1128 |
7 | Uruguay | 1140 | 1047 | 1268 |
8 | Italy | 1106 | 1010 | 1169 |
9 | Colombia | 1102 | 935 | 1110 |
10 | Greece | 1029 | 892 | 1065 |
11 | Croatia | 1023 | 940 | 1078 |
12 | Russia | 1014 | 905 | 1084 |
13 | France | 1011 | 907 | 1060 |
14 | Brazil | 1001 | 931 | 994 |
15 | Switzerland | 983 | 845 | 1053 |
16 | Côte d'Ivoire | 951 | 918 | 974 |
17 | Chile | 948 | 853 | 1070 |
18 | Denmark | 944 | 821 | 1032 |
19 | Mexico | 925 | 883 | 984 |
20 | Ecuador | 902 | 774 | 1032 |
21 | Sweden | 859 | 764 | 897 |
22 | Czech Republic | 837 | 753 | 858 |
23 | Japan | 818 | 770 | 850 |
24 | Algeria | 802 | 788 | 907 |
25 | Korea Republic | 776 | 728 | 819 |
26 | Norway | 764 | 662 | 871 |
27 | Mali | 759 | 725 | 772 |
28 | Republic of Ireland | 757 | 651 | 806 |
29 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 740 | 641 | 832 |
30 | Belgium | 723 | 647 | 881 |
31 | Ghana | 722 | 714 | 762 |
32 | USA | 720 | 682 | 776 |
33 | Serbia | 706 | 643 | 824 |
34 | Australia | 702 | 642 | 719 |
35 | Slovenia | 694 | 506 | 702 |
36 | Turkey | 689 | 639 | 830 |
37 | Peru | 681 | 584 | 766 |
38 | Paraguay | 665 | 596 | 800 |
39 | Venezuela | 635 | 565 | 669 |
40 | Egypt | 634 | 613 | 648 |
41 | Zambia | 631 | 633 | 674 |
42 | Ukraine | 630 | 564 | 686 |
43 | Panama | 625 | 578 | 673 |
44 | Montenegro | 623 | 543 | 691 |
45 | Tunisia | 620 | 562 | 647 |
46 | Romania | 619 | 557 | 801 |
47 | Gabon | 610 | 581 | 630 |
48 | Slovakia | 608 | 542 | 797 |
49 | Central African Republic | 593 | 581 | 698 |
49 | Hungary | 593 | 507 | 753 |
51 | Cape Verde Islands | 587 | 511 | 650 |
52 | Jamaica | 583 | 542 | 642 |
53 | Libya | 578 | 551 | 677 |
54 | Poland | 573 | 523 | 644 |
55 | Bulgaria | 565 | 514 | 852 |
56 | Scotland | 556 | 488 | 782 |
57 | Wales | 551 | 362 | 675 |
58 | Iran | 549 | 508 | 611 |
59 | Austria | 528 | 426 | 526 |
60 | Haiti | 524 | 553 | 553 |
61 | Canada | 516 | 487 | 612 |
62 | Guinea | 515 | 485 | 522 |
63 | Nigeria | 511 | 498 | 553 |
64 | Armenia | 503 | 444 | 624 |
65 | Georgia | 501 | 464 | 675 |
66 | Honduras | 500 | 457 | 635 |
67 | Sierra Leone | 499 | 479 | 604 |
68 | Senegal | 492 | 471 | 579 |
69 | Estonia | 485 | 399 | 536 |
70 | Uzbekistan | 479 | 440 | 501 |
71 | Cameroon | 475 | 433 | 569 |
72 | Bolivia | 465 | 379 | 675 |
72 | Costa Rica | 465 | 427 | 509 |
74 | Benin | 453 | 457 | 457 |
75 | Morocco | 451 | 439 | 482 |
76 | South Africa | 448 | 413 | 467 |
77 | Trinidad and Tobago | 442 | 349 | 490 |
78 | El Salvador | 441 | 402 | 547 |
78 | Jordan | 441 | 413 | 485 |
80 | Iraq | 439 | 390 | 484 |
81 | Guatemala | 431 | 402 | 541 |
82 | Israel | 423 | 343 | 452 |
83 | Angola | 419 | 395 | 446 |
84 | Albania | 414 | 372 | 573 |
85 | China PR | 413 | 424 | 424 |
86 | Korea DPR | 411 | 392 | 421 |
87 | Belarus | 410 | 352 | 666 |
88 | Finland | 407 | 352 | 496 |
89 | Zimbabwe | 396 | 383 | 437 |
90 | Uganda | 394 | 364 | 428 |
91 | Burkina Faso | 392 | 342 | 423 |
92 | New Zealand | 390 | 358 | 404 |
93 | Togo | 377 | 370 | 479 |
94 | Congo | 374 | 309 | 388 |
95 | Oman | 370 | 357 | 427 |
96 | Malawi | 365 | 337 | 421 |
97 | Iceland | 362 | 314 | 597 |
98 | Liberia | 357 | 333 | 432 |
99 | Mozambique | 352 | 318 | 386 |
100 | Sudan | 351 | 341 | 365 |
101 | Qatar | 350 | 312 | 413 |
102 | Dominican Republic | 346 | 368 | 368 |
103 | Congo DR | 345 | 360 | 416 |
104 | FYR Macedonia | 334 | 292 | 588 |
105 | Equatorial Guinea | 328 | 340 | 397 |
106 | Antigua and Barbuda | 324 | 281 | 455 |
107 | Cyprus | 321 | 258 | 622 |
108 | Namibia | 318 | 281 | 299 |
109 | Lebanon | 314 | 321 | 321 |
110 | Lithuania | 311 | 271 | 547 |
111 | Azerbaijan | 309 | 277 | 434 |
112 | Kuwait | 308 | 306 | 318 |
113 | New Caledonia | 303 | 246 | 297 |
113 | Saudi Arabia | 303 | 283 | 313 |
115 | Bahrain | 291 | 266 | 293 |
116 | United Arab Emirates | 288 | 283 | 344 |
117 | Northern Ireland | 287 | 274 | 520 |
118 | Ethiopia | 284 | 274 | 333 |
118 | Latvia | 284 | 228 | 444 |
120 | Bermuda | 277 | 235 | 235 |
120 | Botswana | 277 | 299 | 361 |
122 | Guyana | 276 | 264 | 456 |
122 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 276 | 261 | 489 |
124 | Rwanda | 272 | 268 | 286 |
125 | Chad | 266 | 282 | 282 |
125 | Turkmenistan | 266 | 219 | 275 |
127 | Tahiti | 265 | 215 | 317 |
128 | Kenya | 262 | 248 | 274 |
129 | Puerto Rico | 244 | 265 | 265 |
130 | Suriname | 243 | 265 | 265 |
131 | Gambia | 242 | 186 | 186 |
132 | Sao Tome e Principe | 240 | 240 | 240 |
132 | Tanzania | 240 | 237 | 237 |
134 | Grenada | 234 | 166 | 166 |
135 | Burundi | 232 | 255 | 255 |
136 | Tajikistan | 220 | 225 | 225 |
137 | Niger | 218 | 223 | 312 |
138 | Nicaragua | 210 | 233 | 233 |
139 | Thailand | 206 | 177 | 177 |
140 | Vietnam | 203 | 183 | 266 |
141 | Solomon Islands | 202 | 202 | 289 |
142 | Luxembourg | 191 | 179 | 400 |
143 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 190 | 179 | 296 |
144 | Belize | 188 | 179 | 179 |
145 | Moldova | 187 | 156 | 329 |
146 | Cuba | 179 | 163 | 358 |
147 | Kazakhstan | 178 | 150 | 452 |
147 | Philippines | 178 | 179 | 209 |
149 | Palestine | 170 | 154 | 170 |
150 | Syria | 169 | 172 | 172 |
151 | Curacao | 166 | 134 | 308 |
152 | Barbados | 158 | 158 | 158 |
153 | Malta | 156 | 166 | 389 |
154 | Aruba | 154 | 154 | 154 |
155 | Liechtenstein | 150 | 147 | 331 |
156 | Dominica | 146 | 151 | 151 |
157 | Yemen | 141 | 131 | 131 |
158 | Faroe Islands | 135 | 138 | 665 |
158 | Lesotho | 135 | 129 | 151 |
160 | Hong Kong | 133 | 108 | 134 |
160 | Maldives | 133 | 135 | 135 |
162 | Malaysia | 126 | 114 | 142 |
162 | Singapore | 126 | 115 | 127 |
164 | Samoa | 124 | 124 | 124 |
165 | Nepal | 123 | 116 | 116 |
166 | Afghanistan | 122 | 121 | 121 |
167 | Fiji | 121 | 121 | 121 |
168 | India | 114 | 116 | 123 |
169 | Bangladesh | 112 | 114 | 114 |
170 | Indonesia | 111 | 103 | 125 |
171 | Madagascar | 106 | 106 | 106 |
172 | Vanuatu | 99 | 99 | 99 |
173 | Guinea-Bissau | 98 | 98 | 98 |
174 | Tonga | 87 | 87 | 87 |
175 | American Samoa | 85 | 85 | 85 |
176 | Chinese Taipei | 80 | 90 | 90 |
177 | Pakistan | 72 | 72 | 124 |
178 | Guam | 71 | 71 | 71 |
179 | US Virgin Islands | 70 | 50 | 50 |
180 | Sri Lanka | 68 | 68 | 68 |
181 | Bahamas | 66 | 66 | 66 |
181 | Montserrat | 66 | 66 | 66 |
183 | Cayman Islands | 65 | 51 | 51 |
184 | Myanmar | 60 | 63 | 166 |
185 | Mongolia | 55 | 55 | 55 |
185 | St. Lucia | 55 | 33 | 278 |
187 | Eritrea | 45 | 45 | 45 |
188 | Somalia | 43 | 43 | 43 |
189 | Cambodia | 42 | 49 | 153 |
190 | Comoros | 39 | 36 | 36 |
190 | Seychelles | 39 | 39 | 39 |
190 | Swaziland | 39 | 30 | 82 |
193 | Laos | 38 | 37 | 141 |
193 | Papua New Guinea | 38 | 38 | 38 |
195 | British Virgin Islands | 34 | 34 | 34 |
196 | Cook Islands | 28 | 28 | 28 |
197 | Djibouti | 25 | 17 | 17 |
198 | Kyrgyzstan | 20 | 20 | 20 |
198 | Macau | 20 | 22 | 22 |
198 | South Sudan | 20 | 20 | 20 |
201 | Andorra | 13 | 13 | 361 |
201 | Mauritius | 13 | 13 | 13 |
203 | Brunei Darussalam | 5 | 0 | 103 |
204 | Anguilla | 4 | 4 | 270 |
205 | Mauritania | 3 | 3 | 3 |
206 | Timor-Leste | 2 | 0 | 103 |
207 | Bhutan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
207 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 375 |
207 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hi Edgar. There is at least one error in your preview limits for Algeria. A win of Algeria over Libya will give Algeria a total of 907 instead of 920 (I use my own feeling in the probable results rather than the Elo ratings formula). I also confirmed this using the Fifa prediction tool. I am not sure about the other countries, I have to check those later tonight or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThanks Brahim!
DeleteYou're right. I changed something in my program a couple of days ago - I was trying to compute the probable 2014 WC seeds. It's fixed now.
I think that Algeria will win the match against Libya and gathered up 920 points and thus would make a lot in the standings next month
ReplyDeleteI just realized this - Haiti will be dropping to four matches in the last year (from six) and STILL be gaining points!
ReplyDeleteA good time to play against Haiti.
Delete