Probable October 2018 rank - Team - Probable October 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Belgium | 1735 | 0 | 6,0 |
2 | France | 1734 | -1 | 5,0 |
3 | Brazil | 1669 | 0 | 6,0 |
4 | Croatia | 1643 | 0 | 9,0 |
5 | Uruguay | 1629 | 0 | -3,0 |
6 | Spain | 1609 | 3 | 12,0 |
7 | Portugal | 1605 | 0 | -1,0 |
8 | Switzerland | 1598 | 0 | 0,0 |
9 | England | 1597 | -3 | -15,0 |
10 | Denmark | 1591 | 0 | 10,0 |
11 | Argentina | 1573 | 0 | -2,0 |
12 | Chile | 1568 | 0 | 0,0 |
13 | Colombia | 1567 | 1 | 0,0 |
14 | Germany | 1562 | -2 | -6,0 |
15 | Mexico | 1550 | 0 | 0,0 |
16 | Sweden | 1549 | -1 | -1,0 |
17 | Netherlands | 1540 | 0 | 0,0 |
18 | Poland | 1538 | 0 | 1,0 |
19 | Wales | 1530 | 0 | -6,0 |
20 | Italy | 1526 | 0 | 0,0 |
21 | Peru | 1525 | 0 | 0,0 |
22 | Tunisia | 1515 | 1 | 12,0 |
23 | USA | 1510 | -1 | 0,0 |
24 | Austria | 1502 | 0 | 3,0 |
25 | Senegal | 1501 | 0 | 9,0 |
26 | Slovakia | 1498 | 0 | 7,0 |
27 | Romania | 1491 | 0 | 2,0 |
28 | Ukraine | 1489 | 1 | 6,0 |
29 | Venezuela | 1479 | 3 | 3,0 |
30 | Paraguay | 1477 | 1 | 0,0 |
31 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1476 | 3 | 8,0 |
32 | Iran | 1474 | 1 | 0,0 |
33 | Republic of Ireland | 1473 | -3 | -5,0 |
34 | Northern Ireland | 1472 | -6 | -15,0 |
35 | Serbia | 1463 | 0 | 0,0 |
36 | Costa Rica | 1460 | 1 | 0,0 |
37 | Iceland | 1455 | -1 | -6,0 |
38 | Scotland | 1453 | 1 | 5,0 |
39 | Turkey | 1449 | -1 | -7,0 |
40 | Montenegro | 1448 | 1 | 4,0 |
41 | Congo DR | 1447 | -1 | 0,0 |
42 | Greece | 1439 | 0 | 6,0 |
43 | Morocco | 1435 | 2 | 10,0 |
44 | Russia | 1433 | 2 | 10,0 |
45 | Australia | 1432 | -2 | 1,0 |
46 | Nigeria | 1431 | 2 | 16,0 |
47 | Bulgaria | 1428 | -3 | -2,0 |
48 | Cameroon | 1421 | 2 | 13,0 |
48 | Ghana | 1421 | 3 | 14,0 |
50 | Norway | 1420 | 2 | 15,0 |
51 | Czech Republic | 1406 | -4 | -12,0 |
52 | Burkina Faso | 1402 | 4 | 11,0 |
53 | Korea Republic | 1401 | 2 | 6,0 |
53 | Jamaica | 1401 | 0 | 0,0 |
55 | Hungary | 1400 | -6 | -9,0 |
56 | Japan | 1398 | -2 | 0,0 |
57 | Albania | 1384 | 0 | 1,0 |
58 | Ecuador | 1378 | 0 | 0,0 |
58 | Bolivia | 1378 | 0 | 0,0 |
58 | Egypt | 1378 | 6 | 14,0 |
61 | Finland | 1377 | -3 | -1,0 |
61 | Mali | 1377 | 2 | 12,0 |
63 | Slovenia | 1375 | -2 | -1,0 |
64 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1368 | 2 | 17,0 |
65 | Honduras | 1367 | -3 | -1,0 |
66 | Guinea | 1366 | -1 | 13,0 |
67 | Algeria | 1351 | 2 | 8,0 |
68 | Cape Verde Islands | 1350 | -1 | 0,0 |
69 | FYR Macedonia | 1345 | -1 | 1,0 |
70 | Saudi Arabia | 1339 | 1 | 2,0 |
71 | El Salvador | 1335 | 1 | 3,0 |
72 | Panama | 1334 | -2 | -5,0 |
73 | South Africa | 1333 | 0 | 8,0 |
73 | Zambia | 1333 | 2 | 17,0 |
75 | Syria | 1320 | -1 | -2,0 |
76 | China PR | 1317 | 0 | 4,0 |
77 | Belarus | 1315 | 3 | 11,0 |
78 | Canada | 1310 | 1 | 3,0 |
79 | Curacao | 1306 | 2 | 3,0 |
80 | Lebanon | 1305 | -3 | -3,0 |
80 | United Arab Emirates | 1305 | -3 | -3,0 |
82 | Uganda | 1293 | 1 | 2,0 |
83 | Oman | 1291 | 2 | 4,0 |
84 | Congo | 1289 | 0 | 0,0 |
85 | Gabon | 1288 | 2 | 14,0 |
86 | Luxembourg | 1287 | -4 | -5,0 |
87 | Cyprus | 1272 | -1 | -11,0 |
88 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1269 | 2 | 0,0 |
89 | Iraq | 1265 | 0 | -7,0 |
89 | Georgia | 1265 | 4 | 11,0 |
91 | Benin | 1264 | -3 | -9,0 |
92 | Kyrgyzstan | 1263 | -1 | -2,0 |
93 | Faroe Islands | 1258 | -1 | -3,0 |
94 | Qatar | 1247 | 0 | 0,0 |
95 | Israel | 1245 | -1 | -2,0 |
95 | Uzbekistan | 1245 | 1 | 0,0 |
97 | Estonia | 1244 | 1 | 4,0 |
98 | India | 1240 | -1 | -4,0 |
99 | Palestine | 1230 | 1 | 5,0 |
99 | Armenia | 1230 | 1 | 5,0 |
101 | Mauritania | 1225 | 2 | 8,0 |
102 | Vietnam | 1220 | 0 | 0,0 |
103 | Haiti | 1216 | 1 | 4,0 |
104 | Libya | 1210 | -5 | -16,0 |
104 | Kenya | 1210 | 3 | 6,0 |
106 | Azerbaijan | 1207 | 2 | 5,0 |
107 | Madagascar | 1200 | -1 | -5,0 |
108 | Korea DPR | 1196 | 1 | 0,0 |
109 | Niger | 1195 | -4 | -12,0 |
110 | Bahrain | 1188 | 2 | 7,0 |
111 | Jordan | 1184 | -1 | -5,0 |
112 | Namibia | 1180 | 4 | 10,0 |
113 | Central African Republic | 1170 | -2 | -17,0 |
114 | Philippines | 1169 | 0 | -3,0 |
115 | Zimbabwe | 1167 | 2 | 0,0 |
116 | Mozambique | 1162 | -3 | -13,0 |
117 | Kazakhstan | 1159 | 1 | -1,0 |
118 | Sierra Leone | 1158 | -4 | -14,0 |
119 | New Zealand | 1157 | 0 | 0,0 |
120 | Tajikistan | 1156 | 0 | 0,0 |
121 | Thailand | 1148 | 1 | 4,0 |
122 | Togo | 1144 | 1 | 5,0 |
123 | Chinese Taipei | 1139 | 0 | 0,0 |
124 | Guinea-Bissau | 1132 | -3 | -17,0 |
125 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1126 | 2 | 4,0 |
126 | Nicaragua | 1125 | 2 | 4,0 |
127 | Turkmenistan | 1120 | 3 | 0,0 |
128 | Latvia | 1119 | 3 | 3,0 |
129 | Lithuania | 1117 | -3 | -6,0 |
129 | Malawi | 1117 | -4 | -12,0 |
131 | Yemen | 1112 | 2 | 0,0 |
132 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1109 | 2 | 0,0 |
132 | Andorra | 1109 | -4 | -12,0 |
134 | Sudan | 1105 | -2 | -9,0 |
135 | Angola | 1101 | 0 | -7,0 |
136 | Kosovo | 1099 | 2 | 7,0 |
137 | Equatorial Guinea | 1091 | 4 | 5,0 |
138 | Tanzania | 1088 | 2 | -1,0 |
138 | Swaziland | 1088 | -2 | -13,0 |
140 | Myanmar | 1086 | -2 | -6,0 |
141 | Rwanda | 1080 | -4 | -13,0 |
142 | Solomon Islands | 1073 | 2 | 0,0 |
143 | Botswana | 1068 | -1 | -9,0 |
143 | Afghanistan | 1068 | 3 | 0,0 |
143 | Lesotho | 1068 | 2 | -2,0 |
146 | Hong Kong | 1066 | -3 | -10,0 |
147 | Guatemala | 1064 | 0 | 0,0 |
148 | Ethiopia | 1054 | 1 | -6,0 |
149 | Comoros | 1050 | 0 | -10,0 |
150 | Burundi | 1049 | -2 | -12,0 |
150 | Maldives | 1049 | 1 | 0,0 |
152 | Dominican Republic | 1045 | 0 | 5,0 |
153 | Suriname | 1040 | 0 | 5,0 |
154 | New Caledonia | 1032 | 0 | 0,0 |
155 | Liberia | 1022 | 0 | -1,0 |
155 | Mauritius | 1022 | 1 | 0,0 |
157 | Tahiti | 1020 | 0 | 0,0 |
158 | Kuwait | 1015 | 1 | 1,0 |
159 | Belize | 1010 | 1 | 6,0 |
160 | Indonesia | 1009 | 4 | 12,0 |
161 | South Sudan | 1005 | -3 | -14,0 |
162 | Nepal | 1001 | -2 | -3,0 |
163 | Vanuatu | 1000 | 0 | 0,0 |
163 | Barbados | 1000 | -1 | -3,0 |
165 | Singapore | 991 | 1 | 9,0 |
166 | Papua New Guinea | 984 | -1 | 0,0 |
167 | Fiji | 981 | 1 | 0,0 |
168 | Cambodia | 978 | 1 | -1,0 |
169 | St. Lucia | 977 | -3 | -5,0 |
170 | Malaysia | 975 | 1 | 3,0 |
171 | Grenada | 968 | -1 | -8,0 |
171 | Gambia | 968 | 0 | -4,0 |
173 | Moldova | 961 | 0 | 3,0 |
174 | Chad | 956 | 0 | 0,0 |
175 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 955 | 0 | 0,0 |
175 | Puerto Rico | 955 | 0 | 0,0 |
177 | Cuba | 954 | 2 | 8,0 |
178 | Dominica | 950 | -1 | -3,0 |
179 | Liechtenstein | 944 | -1 | -3,0 |
180 | Guyana | 943 | 2 | 6,0 |
181 | Laos | 942 | -2 | -4,0 |
182 | Bermuda | 940 | -1 | 0,0 |
183 | Macau | 925 | 1 | 0,0 |
184 | Aruba | 924 | 1 | 0,0 |
185 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 920 | 2 | 0,0 |
186 | Malta | 919 | -3 | -9,0 |
187 | Mongolia | 918 | -1 | -4,0 |
188 | Bhutan | 917 | 0 | 0,0 |
189 | American Samoa | 908 | 2 | 0,0 |
189 | Cook Islands | 908 | 2 | 0,0 |
191 | Guam | 907 | 2 | 0,0 |
191 | Bangladesh | 907 | 2 | 0,0 |
193 | Timor-Leste | 905 | -3 | -4,0 |
194 | Seychelles | 904 | -5 | -9,0 |
195 | Brunei Darussalam | 903 | 0 | 0,0 |
196 | Samoa | 896 | 0 | 0,0 |
196 | Djibouti | 896 | 0 | 0,0 |
198 | Sri Lanka | 890 | 1 | 0,0 |
198 | Pakistan | 890 | 1 | 0,0 |
200 | Gibraltar | 888 | -2 | -3,0 |
201 | US Virgin Islands | 887 | 0 | -2,0 |
202 | Cayman Islands | 873 | 0 | -5,0 |
203 | Tonga | 868 | 3 | 0,0 |
203 | Eritrea | 868 | 3 | 0,0 |
203 | Somalia | 868 | 3 | 0,0 |
206 | British Virgin Islands | 867 | -3 | -5,0 |
207 | Montserrat | 864 | -2 | -6,0 |
207 | Anguilla | 864 | -1 | -4,0 |
209 | San Marino | 862 | -5 | -9,0 |
210 | Bahamas | 858 | 0 | -4,0 |
211 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 855 | -1 | -7,0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
I could be wrong, but it seems to me moving up (or down) with this new system is going to be extremely hard.
ReplyDeleteHow about these European qualifying groups for the 2022 World Cup?
A - Belgium, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Georgia, Faeroe Islands
B - France, Bosnia, Serbia, Cyprus, Israel, San Marino
C - Croatia, Ukraine, Iceland, Luxembourg, Estonia
D - Spain, Romania, Scotland, Belarus, Armenia, Gibraltar
E - Portugal, Slovakia, Turkey, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Malta
F - England, Italy, Greece, Finland, Latvia, Liechtenstein
G - Denmark, Wales, Russia, Albania, Lithuania
H - Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Andorra, Moldova
I - Sweden, Netherlands, Norway, Czech Republic, Kosovo
Ouch! Only eight games left to improve your destiny.
Afghanistan-Myanmar match is cancelled
ReplyDeleteSo what ranking would Afghanistan be now
The match Myanmar - Afghanistan was already NOT included in the above probable ranking. See the match-list in probable results, the zero as first digit indicates that the match is not included in the calculation.
DeleteHi Ed,
ReplyDeleteYou know how the ELO site has a fixture list with a points transfer per game.
Do you think this is possible with the Fifa mechanism?
Not asking if you can do it (although that would be great). Asking with your understanding of the fifa model if its possible to get that level of detail around the points transfer per game.
Hey Unknown, you mean something like this ? :)
DeleteHey unknown, check out the points transfer per game at https://elofifa.blogspot.com/
DeleteHi Ed,
ReplyDeleteI was wondering what would be the current ranking if the new FIFA ranking system had been applied before World Cup 2014 when France was 18th, Croatia 19th and Belgium 11th. Which place would they have reached today after World Cup 2018 ?
And what if we go back to 2009 when Belgium was 70th in the ranking ? Would they have reached the top of the ranking ?
I'm wondering if the new system will evolve as slow as it seems it will be the case due to low K (I) factors.
October 2018 ranking is here : https://textuploader.com/dnx3h
ReplyDeleteLooking good, Michael.
DeleteI have a few differences:
Bulgaria was in September 44th with 1430 points, so diffs should be -1 positions and -2 pts.
Barbados has 999,59 points
Cuba has 953,77 points
St. Vincent has 954,68 points
Cayman Islands has 872,96 points
Bulgaria was at 1430.50 pts actually. My excel file rounded it up to 1431 ;)
DeleteI included 2 matches played end September appearing in Eloratings.net : Cuba-Cayman 5-0 and St Vincent-Barbados 1-1. Maybe they will not be included by FIFA though.
Indeed, Bulgaria's September ranking is a 'fine' example of FIFA's rounding method. To be even more precise Bulgaria had 1430,4969 in September, so rounded on two decimals 1430,50 and in their world that's 1430 :)
DeleteThose two matches are not included in FIFA's fixture list and that list is still leading, not the list on elo ratings.
Hello Ed and Michael, I also have a ranking here: http://elofifa.blogspot.com/ I´ve included points exchange of every game since June 4th. Michael, I also have Palestine with 1233 pts, unlike the website FCTables. They have Palestine with 1237 pts. I guess they did not calculate Palestine´s win after penalties (0.75 pts). What do you think?
DeleteIf you use excel, here´s a file I created where you just have to copy paste from the fifa fixtures results web site, and the formulas will do all the math, exchange points and rank teams. I´ll be happy to explain how it works. Take a look: https://1drv.ms/x/s!Anvei7RxJKLQkI5f0uF9TsgInaE7Vw
ReplyDeleteWhy is serraleon on positive move yet are banned and were dormant during the international week.
ReplyDeleteGreat post
ReplyDeleteThe author portrays distinctive football rankings, examinations the points and upsides and downsides of each positioning framework. One of the principle subjects of the article is to uncover the contrast between authority football appraisals and informal open positioning.
ReplyDeleteThat is so true.
DeleteI think it is not after the FIFA world cup 2018. I Think this ranking is before world cup 2018. Am i right?
ReplyDelete