Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
The group results, ordered by average group position:
|
Group C is a true group of death, with some opportunities for Curacao. The other top-seeds should have an easy ride to the knock-out phase.
Quarter finals
|
Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)
USA | 72,57 | [77,12] | |
Mexico | 69,19 | [79,87] | |
Costa Rica | 56,15 | [61,12] | |
Panama | 51,23 | [76,22] | |
Canada | 25,72 | [46,59] | |
Haiti | 23,92 | [35,78] | |
Honduras | 23,00 | [37,12] | |
Jamaica | 21,06 | [34,00] | |
El Salvador | 17,84 | [33,26] | |
Martinique | 13,59 | [36,61] | |
Trinidad and Tobago | 9,31 | [30,95] | |
Cuba | 5,38 | [25,56] | |
Nicaragua | 3,51 | [16,22] | |
Curacao | 3,49 | [15,54] | |
Bermuda | 2,54 | [12,93] | |
Guyana | 1,50 | [17,42] |
Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)
Mexico | 52,07 | [75,26] | |
USA | 38,37 | [52,87] | |
Costa Rica | 27,61 | [49,17] | |
Panama | 25,16 | [49,11] | |
Honduras | 11,80 | [51,30] | |
Jamaica | 10,32 | [49,00] | |
El Salvador | 9,21 | [51,63] | |
Canada | 8,21 | [31,92] | |
Haiti | 6,76 | [28,26] | |
Trinidad and Tobago | 3,48 | [37,38] | |
Martinique | 3,38 | [24,87] | |
Curacao | 1,25 | [35,82] | |
Cuba | 0,88 | [16,36] | |
Nicaragua | 0,71 | [20,23] | |
Guyana | 0,41 | [27,33] | |
Bermuda | 0,38 | [14,96] |
Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)
Mexico | 31,10 | [59,73] | |
USA | 18,37 | [47,88] | |
Panama | 13,86 | [55,09] | |
Costa Rica | 12,42 | [44,98] | |
Honduras | 5,23 | [44,32] | |
Jamaica | 4,78 | [46,32] | |
El Salvador | 4,29 | [46,58] | |
Canada | 3,19 | [38,86] | |
Haiti | 2,76 | [40,83] | |
Trinidad and Tobago | 1,45 | [41,67] | |
Martinique | 1,44 | [42,60] | |
Curacao | 0,48 | [38,40] | |
Cuba | 0,23 | [26,14] | |
Nicaragua | 0,21 | [29,58] | |
Guyana | 0,15 | [36,59] | |
Bermuda | 0,04 | [10,53] |
The average position amongst CONCACAF-teams in the July 2019 FIFA-ranking:
Mexico | 1,339 |
USA | 1,793 |
Costa Rica | 3,005 |
Jamaica | 4,622 |
Honduras | 5,213 |
El Salvador | 6,211 |
Panama | 6,459 |
Canada | 8,131 |
Curacao | 8,669 |
Trinidad and Tobago | 10,014 |
Haiti | 10,550 |
Antigua and Barbuda | 12,127 |
Nicaragua | 13,236 |
St. Kitts and Nevis | 13,635 |
Guatemala | 15,003 |
Suriname | 16,014 |
Dominican Republic | 17,040 |
Barbados | 18,230 |
Belize | 19,250 |
St. Lucia | 20,607 |
Grenada | 21,830 |
Guyana | 23,125 |
Bermuda | 23,140 |
Dominica | 23,514 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 24,514 |
Cuba | 24,665 |
Puerto Rico | 26,067 |
Aruba | 28,000 |
Montserrat | 29,000 |
US Virgin Islands | 30,000 |
Cayman Islands | 31,000 |
British Virgin Islands | 32,000 |
Turks and Caicos Islands | 33,000 |
Anguilla | 34,000 |
Bahamas | 35,000 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
If group C is a "group of death" - not one team is in the top 50 in the FIFA rankings - CONCACAF is in a lot of trouble. At least having some qualifying is a step in the right direction. However, I'm looking forward this summer: U-20 WC, UEFA Nations League finals, Euro 2020 qualifying, Women WC, UEFA U-21 championship.
ReplyDeletethanks Ed
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