Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Liga a II-a: Sezonul 2008-2009 (28 noiembrie 2007)

Iata cum ar arata Liga a II-a in sezonul viitor:

Seria I

Farul Constanta
Concordia Chiajna
Delta Tulcea
FC Botosani
Dinamo II Bucuresti
Sportul Studentesc Bucuresti
Petrolul Ploiesti
Forex Brasov
Dunarea Giurgiu
Prefab Modelu
Progresul Bucuresti
FCM Bacau
CSM Focsani
Cetatea Suceava
CSM Ramnicu Sarat
Juventus Bucuresti
CSM Ploiesti
Rova Rosiorii de Vede

Seria a II-a

Pandurii Targu Jiu

UTA Arad
Universitatea Cluj
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
Liberty Oradea
Muresul Deva
Jiul Petrosani
FC Drobeta Turnu Severin
FC Bihor Oradea
Unirea Alba Iulia
FCM Resita
Minerul Lupeni
Industria Sarmei Campia Turzii
Ariesul Turda
CFR Timisoara
International Curtea de Arges
CSM Sebes
Lotus Felix Sanmartin

Am considerat ca ar castiga barajul pentru Liga a II-a echipele cu cea mai buna medie de puncte pe meci. Am folosit clasamentele publicate de ProSport.


About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Monday, November 26, 2007

EURO 2012: The possible preliminary format

30 March 2009

Confirmed - sort of... See the update.

21 May 2008


The coefficient system was changed by UEFA: link.
______________________________________

There are 14 places available and 51 teams.

Regarding the format, here's some food for thought:


1. Platini doesn't like groups of seven and eight teams.

"I wasn't really happy with the format for the last qualifying competition with groups of seven and eight teams" said UEFA President Michel Platini.

2. UEFA tends to move towards groups with five or six teams. That's the format used for U21 qualifiers. See the regulations of the U21 championships:

Article 7.02:

The number of teams per group should not, in principle, be less then five or more than six.

3. With more groups, the differences among teams from one pot can be significant.

4. FAs don't really like the "worst second place stays home" scenario.

We might see six groups of six teams and three of five teams. The winners and best runners-up would qualify directly, while the rest of the second placed teams would go to a play-off.

Of course, there could be 9 groups of 5 teams and one of 6 teams, but in this case the two worst second place teams would miss the play-offs. I don't see it happening.

At the moment, UEFA's ranking for national teams is under review, but using the usual point average method, here's how the pots would look like (for Switzerland and Austria I used average from the 2006 WCQ - yes, I know it will not be used, but it helps to get a clearer picture):

Column order:

Rank - Country - PPG - Average goal difference - Average goals scored

1 Greece 2.583 1.250 2.083
2 Czech Republic 2.417 1.833 2.250
3 Croatia 2.417 1.667 2.333
4 Romania 2.417 1.583 2.167
5 Italy 2.417 1.083 1.833
6 Spain 2.333 1.250 1.917
7 Germany 2.250 2.333 2.917
8 France 2.167 1.667 2.083
9 Sweden 2.167 1.167 1.917
----------------------------------------
10 Netherlands 2.167 0.833 1.250
11 Bulgaria 2.083 0.917 1.500
12 Turkey 2.000 1.167 2.083
13 Russia 2.000 0.917 1.500
14 Scotland 2.000 0.750 1.750
15 Portugal 1.929 1.000 1.714
16 England 1.917 1.417 2.000
17 Norway 1.917 1.333 2.250
18 Israel 1.917 0.667 1.667
----------------------------------------
19 Switzerland 1.800 1.100 1.800
20 Serbia 1.714 0.786 1.571
21 Finland 1.714 0.429 0.929
22 Denmark 1.667 0.833 1.750
23 Northern Ireland 1.667 0.250 1.417
24 Austria 1.500 0.300 1.500
25 Ireland 1.417 0.250 1.417
26 Slovakia 1.333 0.833 2.750
27 Lithuania 1.333 -0.167 0.917
----------------------------------------
28 Belgium 1.286 -0.143 1.000
29 Wales 1.250 -0.083 1.500
30 Macedonia 1.167 0.000 1.000
31 Cyprus 1.167 -0.583 1.417
32 Belarus 1.083 -0.500 1.417
33 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.083 -0.500 1.333
34 Latvia 1.000 -0.167 1.250
35 Moldova 1.000 -0.583 1.000
36 Hungary 1.000 -0.917 0.917
----------------------------------------
37 Albania 0.917 -0.500 1.000
38 Slovenia 0.917 -0.583 0.750
39 Georgia 0.833 -0.250 1.333
40 Armenia 0.750 -0.750 0.333
41 Kazakhstan 0.714 -0.714 0.786
42 Iceland 0.667 -1.417 0.833
43 Estonia 0.583 -1.333 0.417
44 Liechtenstein 0.583 -1.917 0.750
45 Malta 0.417 -1.750 0.833
----------------------------------------
46 Azerbaijan 0.417 -1.833 0.500
47 Luxembourg 0.250 -1.750 0.167
48 Faroe Islands 0.000 -3.250 0.333
49 Andorra 0.000 -3.333 0.167
50 San Marino 0.000 -4.583 0.167
51 Montenegro

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Azerbaijan's November ranking revisited, is there a mistake?

This is the title of a post written by Zombie Z on Bert's Forum 2.

Basically, Azerbaijan got 26 "undeserved extra points" (going from 248 to 274) and leapfrogged Liechtenstein (261 points) for the last place in Pot 5.

Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino

For a very detailed analysis, read Zombie Z's post.

I will only add this to his words:

Column order

1. Month (of 2007)
2. FIFA Points
3. Points according to my calculations
4. Difference

May       297 301 -4
June 277 277 0
July 277 277 0
August 290 290 0
September 287 287 0
October 279 280 -1
November 274 248 26


As you can see November stands out, with 26 points.

When I first read Zombie Z's post, I remembered something Platini said in October:

"Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to avoid playing each other in future European Championship and World Cup qualifiers.

UEFA president Michel Platini said Wednesday it was a "mistake" to have Azerbaijan and Armenia - which have no diplomatic relations - in the same Euro 2008 qualifying group.

"
We will try that both teams never face each other again," said Platini, who was in Baku with FIFA president Sepp Blatter for the opening of the Azerbaijan soccer federation's new headquarters.

Armenia and Azerbaijan had back-to-back matches in Group A canceled in September after the two failed to agree on a neutral location. No points were given for the matches.

Both teams have failed to qualify for next year's European Championship in Austria and Switzerland, the IHT reports
."

With the extra 26 points, Azerbaijan was placed in the same pot with Armenia, thus avoiding each other in the draw.

Ironically, Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein were drawn together in Group 4. Now, even if FIFA admit their mistake (was there a mistake?) and switch the two countries, nothing would change.

Pure coincidence? I guess we will never know.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Friday, November 23, 2007

CM 2010: Urnele pentru preliminarii

Tragerea la sorti pentru preliminariile CM 2010 va avea loc la Durban, in Africa de Sud, duminica, 25 noiembrie 2007, de la ora 17:00 (ora Romaniei).

Urna 1: Italia, Spania, Germania, Cehia, Franta, Portugalia, Olanda, Croatia, Grecia
Urna 2: Anglia, Romania, Scotia, Turcia, Bulgaria, Rusia, Polonia, Suedia, Israel
Urna 3: Norvegia, Ucraina, Serbia, Danemarca, Irlanda de Nord, Irlanda, Finlanda, Elvetia, Belgia
Urna 4: Slovacia, Bosnia-Hertegovina, Ungaria, Moldova, Tara Galilor, Macedonia, Belarus, Lituania, Cipru
Urna 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Letonia, Islanda, Armenia, Austria, Kazahstan, Azerbaidjan
Urna 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxemburg, Muntenegru, Andorra, Insulele Feroe, San Marino

Romania in urna a doua. De mentionat ca am fi fost in prima urna daca obtineam macar un egal in Bulgaria...

Castigatoarele celor noua grupe se califica direct. Cele mai bune opt echipe de pe locul al doilea disputa baraj. Cea de-a noua ramane acasa.

1. Clasament FIFA

Italia, Romania, Norvegia, Slovacia, Georgia, Liechtenstein

Grecia, Romania, Belgia, Cipru, Azerbaidjan, San Marino

2. Clasament ELO

Italia, Romania, Elvetia, Slovacia, Austria, Muntenegru

Grecia, Romania, Irlanda de Nord, Moldova, Azerbaidjan, San Marino

3. Distanta

Portugalia, Romania, Irlanda de Nord/Irlanda, Tara Galilor, Islanda, Insulele Feroe

Grecia, Romania, Serbia, Moldova, Albania, Muntenegru

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 WCQ: The official pots

The November rankings are out -> link.

The only difference between the pots I posted yesterday is Azerbaijan switching pots with Liechtenstein. Of course, I'm pretty proud :) Take that BBC (ha!, they changed the text) and Mirror!

Pot 1: Italy, Spain, Germany, Czech Republic, France, Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Greece
Pot 2: England, Romania, Scotland, Turkey, Bulgaria, Russia, Poland, Sweden, Israel
Pot 3: Norway, Ukraine, Serbia, Denmark, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Finland, Switzerland, Belgium
Pot 4: Slovakia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Moldova, Wales, Macedonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Cyprus
Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

EURO 2008: UEFA ranking system under review

May 20, 2008: See the new coefficient system approved by UEFA -> link.
______________________________________

According to UEFA's professional football director Giorgio Marchetti, a UEFA review of its coefficient ranking system is underway for future EURO competitions -> link.

The current formula: (P1+P2)/(M1+M2)

It takes into account the number of points gained in the last two qualifying competitions (EURO and WC).

P - points, M - matches

Netherlands    2.417
Croatia 2.409
Italy 2.364
Czech Republic 2.333
Sweden 2.273
Romania 2.250
Germany 2.250
Portugal 2.192
Spain 2.182
Greece 2.167
Poland 2.167
France 2.091
Turkey 1.958
Russia 1.958


Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands
Pot 2: Croatia, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden
Pot 3: Romania, Germany, Portugal, Spain
Pot 4: Poland, France, Turkey, Russia





A couple of proposals

1. Use a weighted version of the current formula

(P1/M1 + 2*P2/M2)/

This would be the ranking:

Croatia        2.411
Italy 2.378
Czech Republic 2.361
Netherlands 2.333
Greece 2.306
Romania 2.306
Germany 2.250
Sweden 2.244
Spain 2.222
Poland 2.133
Portugal 2.119
France 2.111
Turkey 1.972
Russia 1.972


The pots:

Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Croatia
Pot 2: Italy, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Romania
Pot 3: Germany, Sweden, Spain, Poland
Pot 4: Portugal, France, Turkey, Russia

2. Use the latest FIFA rankings

Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Italy
Pot 2: Spain, Germany, Czech Republic, France
Pot 3: Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Romania
Pot 4 : Turkey, Sweden, Russia, Poland

3. Use the African Nations Cup system - results of the previous three EURO tournaments

7 points for the winner
5 points for the runner-up
3 points for losing semifinalists
2 points for losing quarter finalists
1 points for team eliminated in the group stage

Points for EURO 2004 multiplied by 3, EURO 2000 by 2, EURO 1996 by 1.

Ranking

Portugal       2 3 5 23
France 3 7 2 23
Greece - - 7 21
Netherlands 2 3 3 17
Czech Republic 5 1 3 16
Italy 1 5 1 14
Germany 7 1 1 12
Spain 2 2 1 9
Sweden - 1 2 8
Croatia 1 - 2 5
Romania - 2 1 5
Turkey - 2 1 5
Russia 1 - 1 4
Switzerland 1 - 1 4
Austria - - - 0
Poland - - - 0


The pots:

Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal
Pot 2 : France, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Germany, Spain, Sweden, Croatia
Pot 4: Romania, Turkey, Russia, Poland

4. Use a modified African Nations Cup system - results of the two previous EURO tournaments

After all, ACN takes place every two years, EURO - every four years and results from a tournament played 12 years ago have little relevance.

Ranking:

Greece         - 7 14
Portugal 3 5 13
France 7 2 11
Netherlands 3 3 9
Czech Republic 1 3 7
Italy 5 1 7
Sweden 1 2 5
Spain 2 1 4
Germany 1 1 3
Russia - 1 2
Croatia - 1 2
Switzerland - 1 2
Romania 2 - 2
Turkey 2 - 2
Austria - - 0
Poland - - 0


Pots:

Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal
Pot 2: France, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Sweden, Spain, Germany, Russia
Pot 4: Croatia, Romania, Turkey, Poland

5. Use a system similar with the one used by FIFA to determine the WC seeds

The formula: Ranking Points + Performance Points

Ranking Points

Using the rankings published in Dec 2005, Dec 2006 and Nov 2007, for each of the ranking sort the teams - the best gets 16 points, the worst 1. Add the three values and divide by 3.

Performance points

Using EURO 2000 and EURO 2004

Winner gets 16 points, losing finalist 15 points and so on. The losing quarter finalist with the worst over-all performance gets 9 points. Teams eliminated in the group stage are ranked on points, goal difference, goals scored. The first four get 5 points, the other 4 points.

The value for EURO 2004 is multiplied by 2, for EURO 2000 by 1. The total is divided by 3.

Ranking:

France         13.3 13.3 26.6
Netherlands 13.3 12.7 26
Portugal 14.3 11.7 26
Czech Republic 11 13.3 24.3
Italy 8.3 14 22.3
Spain 7.3 13 20.3
Greece 10.7 7.3 18
Germany 4.7 12 16.7
Sweden 8 7.7 15.7
Croatia 2.7 7.7 10.4
Turkey 3.7 6.3 10
Romania 3.3 5.3 8.6
Russia 3.3 3.7 7
Switzerland 2.7 3.3 6
Poland 0 3.7 3.7
Austria 0 1 1


The pots

Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, France
Pot 2: Netherlands, Portugal, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Spain, Germany, Sweden, Croatia
Pot 4: Turkey, Romania, Russia, Poland

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Differences between the published and the calculated values

Since everyone is asking for this, here you go:

These are the differences between the values published by FIFA in October and those calculated by me.

Country - FIFA values - My values - Difference

Italy              1387 1387 0
France 1271 1271 0
Germany 1245 1245 0
Spain 1226 1226 0
Netherlands 1207 1207 0
Portugal 1203 1203 0
Czech Republic 1174 1174 0
Croatia 1155 1155 0
England 1137 1137 0
Romania 1086 1086 0
Scotland 1049 1049 0
Greece 1034 1034 0
Russia 960 960 0
Poland 837 837 0
Norway 830 835 -5
Ukraine 828 816 12
Sweden 821 832 -11
Serbia 786 809 -23
Turkey 771 761 10
Denmark 769 759 10
Ireland 722 730 -8
Bulgaria 717 719 -2
Northern Ireland 716 720 -4
Israel 707 703 4
Switzerland 676 683 -7
Finland 667 672 -5
Bosnia-Herzegovina 630 622 8
Hungary 630 630 0
Slovakia 600 602 -2
Belgium 577 565 12
Cyprus 556 562 -6
Wales 521 513 8
Moldova 497 491 6
Albania 455 447 8
Georgia 447 439 8
Macedonia 423 421 2
Slovenia 422 416 6
Iceland 410 415 -5
Armenia 400 403 -3
Latvia 386 395 -9
Austria 382 369 13
Lithuania 380 372 8
Belarus 358 358 0
Azerbaijan 279 280 -1
Liechtenstein 262 264 -2
Kazakhstan 249 245 4
Estonia 211 214 -3
Malta 196 199 -3
Luxembourg 132 132 0
Montenegro 65 65 0
Andorra 61 63 -2
Faroe Islands 12 13 -1
San Marino 6 6 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.