EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (10 June 2011)

Next update: 12 August 2011 

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

The qualifying format is already known: 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

Rank - Team - Points

1 Netherlands        25755
 2 Spain              25525
 3 Germany            24627
 4 Italy              21455
 5 England            20264
 6 Sweden             20148
 7 Greece             19554
 8 Russia             19309
 9 Croatia            18961
---------------------------
10 Slovakia           18906
11 Portugal           18524
12 Ireland            18226
13 Denmark            18152
14 Ukraine            17951
15 Israel             16815
16 Montenegro         16671
17 Czech Republic     16631
18 Norway             16606
---------------------------
19 Slovenia           16523
20 Hungary            16221
21 Bosnia-Herzegovina 16151
22 Turkey             15764
23 Belarus            15622
24 Serbia             15524
25 Belgium            14360
26 Switzerland        14201
27 Northern Ireland   13841
---------------------------
28 Romania            13741
29 Finland            13601
30 Austria            13458
31 Poland             12751
32 Bulgaria           12681
33 Albania            12597
34 Scotland           12388
35 Armenia            12074
36 Latvia             11964
---------------------------
37 Georgia            11623
38 Lithuania          11390
39 Estonia            11336
40 Moldova            10414
41 Macedonia          10242
42 Cyprus              9631
43 Kazakhstan          8587
44 Faroe Islands       8565
45 Azerbaijan          8467
---------------------------
46 Liechtenstein       8310
47 Wales               8020
48 Iceland             7735
49 Luxembourg          7019
50 Malta               5573
51 Andorra             5240
52 San Marino          4597

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (10 June 2011)

Next update: 1 July 2011

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:

 

1	Spain	1341
2	Netherlands	1204
3	Germany	998
4	Japan	943
5	Brazil	880
6	Australia	847
7	Portugal	838
8	England	805
9	Korea Republic	791
10	Argentina	778
11	Italy	770
12	Côte dIvoire	764
13	Croatia	740
14	Egypt	715
15	France	700
16	Uruguay	685
17	Israel	671
17	Russia	671
19	USA	669
20	Greece	665
20	Ghana	665

Mexico are 24th.

Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Australia, Portugal and England

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Final draw coefficients (10 June 2011)

Next update: 12 August 2011

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 final draw will take into account results from:

EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

Hosts Poland (23806) and Ukraine (28029) will be seeded for the final draw, along with 2008 winners, Spain, if they qualify.


Best movers:

4 - Belarus
3 - Denmark, Ireland and Romania
2 - Sweden and Kazakhstan

Worst movers:

3 - Czech Republic, Serbia and Austria
2 - France, Norway, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Luxembourg

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

 1  1 Spain              38366
 2  2 Netherlands        36999
 3  3 Germany            36686
 4  5 Italy              30257
 5  4 England            29963
 6  7 Russia             29051
 7  6 Croatia            29043
 8  8 Greece             28375
 9 10 Portugal           28077
10 12 Sweden             27955
11  9 France             27228
12 15 Denmark            26554
13 14 Slovakia           26334
14 11 Czech Republic     25956
15 16 Israel             25762
16 13 Serbia             25135
17 20 Ireland            24943
18 17 Turkey             24801
19 18 Switzerland        24695
20 21 Slovenia           24463
21 19 Norway             24068
22 22 Hungary            23250
23 23 Finland            23073
24 24 Bosnia-Herzegovina 23038
25 28 Romania            22528
26 25 Bulgaria           22339
27 31 Belarus            22298
28 26 Northern Ireland   21839
29 30 Montenegro         21344
30 27 Austria            21266
31 29 Scotland           20926
32 32 Belgium            20918
33 33 Latvia             20365
34 34 Lithuania          19306
35 35 Albania            17604
36 36 Macedonia          17224
37 37 Wales              17057
38 38 Cyprus             16761
39 39 Estonia            16654
40 40 Georgia            16202
41 41 Armenia            15966
42 42 Moldova            15262
43 45 Kazakhstan         14338
44 43 Iceland            13892
45 44 Azerbaijan         13390
46 47 Liechtenstein      12680
47 48 Faroe Islands      12315
48 46 Luxembourg         12065
49 49 Malta              10319
50 50 Andorra             8707
51 51 San Marino          7962

If the teams with the best coefficient qualify the final draw pot would look like this:

Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: France, Denmark, Slovakia, Czech Republic

Russia replace Croatia in the second pot.
Sweden replace France in the third pot.
Denmark replace Serbia in the fourth pot.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: July 2011 ranking without friendlies (UEFA)

By request for Amir.

These are not the pots that will be used. See this post for the pots.

Obviously, Ukraine and Poland would suffer. France and Montenegro still in Pot 2. Russia would replace Norway in Pot 1.

1 Netherlands              2353
 2 Spain                    2307
 3 Germany                  1845
 4 England                  1585
 5 Italy                    1577
 6 Portugal                 1414
 7 Greece                   1255
 8 Russia                   1252
 9 Croatia                  1248
--------------------------------
10 Denmark                  1246
11 Slovakia                 1232
12 Norway                   1231
13 France                   1179
14 Sweden                   1139
15 Serbia                   1075
16 Montenegro               1059
17 Switzerland              1050
18 Republic of Ireland      1013
--------------------------------
19 Slovenia                 1001
20 Turkey                    946
21 Israel                    920
22 Czech Republic            905
23 Bosnia-Herzegovina        846
24 Belarus                   826
25 Northern Ireland          802
26 Belgium                   778
27 Bulgaria                  752
--------------------------------
28 Romania                   739
29 Hungary                   735
30 Lithuania                 688
31 Austria                   624
32 Latvia                    604
33 Armenia                   571
34 Albania                   564
35 Estonia                   556
36 Georgia                   548
--------------------------------
37 Finland                   546
38 Scotland                  543
39 Moldova                   465
40 Ukraine                   441
41 Cyprus                    435
42 Azerbaijan                320
43 FYR Macedonia             314
44 Faroe Islands             310
45 Liechtenstein             308
--------------------------------
46 Poland                    250
47 Iceland                   232
48 Kazakhstan                209
49 Luxembourg                195
50 Wales                     181
51 Malta                      29
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

The friendlies only table

1 Spain                     681
 2 Netherlands               598
 3 Norway                    584
 4 France                    583
 5 Croatia                   538
 6 Ukraine                   524
 7 England                   521
 8 Germany                   482
 9 Serbia                    479
10 Sweden                    477
11 Poland                    447
12 Republic of Ireland       434
13 Greece                    432
14 Turkey                    429
15 Portugal                  410
16 Italy                     393
17 Montenegro                369
18 Czech Republic            353
19 Romania                   341
20 Denmark                   325
21 Hungary                   317
22 Georgia                   313
23 Switzerland               302
24 Belgium                   301
25 Belarus                   298
26 Estonia                   286
27 Wales                     283
28 Bulgaria                  279
29 Albania                   272
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina        268
31 Slovenia                  264
32 Scotland                  244
33 Lithuania                 227
34 Russia                    223
35 FYR Macedonia             217
36 Finland                   195
37 Luxembourg                174
38 Israel                    166
39 Moldova                   164
40 Cyprus                    163
41 Austria                   162
42 Azerbaijan                159
43 Slovakia                  155
44 Iceland                   149
45 Kazakhstan                117
46 Malta                     103
47 Liechtenstein              79
47 Latvia                     79
49 Armenia                    75
50 Northern Ireland           66
51 Faroe Islands              30
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 June 2011)

Next update: 10 June 2011.

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (3 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (3 June 2011)

Bosnia-Herzegovina's suspension has been lifted and FIFA confirmed they will be using the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams.

12 teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Spain, Netherlands, Germany and England in Pot 1.
Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia in Pot 2.
Andorra, Kazakhstan, Malta, Liechtenstein and San Marino in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Wales won against Northern Ireland and have turned the tables on Iceland, replacing them in Pot 5. They are now favorites to avoid Pot 6, needing Denmark to win against Iceland tomorrow in Reykjavik.

Wales's win has also condemned Malta, Liechtenstein to San Marino to Pot 6.

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots (no change from last time). In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Latvia, Moldova, Poland, Wales
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (3 June 2011)

Spain: 100.00% in Pot 1
Netherlands: 100.00% in Pot 1
Germany: 100.00% in Pot 1
England: 100.00% in Pot 1
Italy: 99.97% in Pot 1, 0.03% in Pot 2
Croatia: 96.22% in Pot 1, 3.78% in Pot 2
Portugal: 86.52% in Pot 1, 13.48% in Pot 2
Norway: 81.41% in Pot 1, 18.59% in Pot 2
Greece: 74.62% in Pot 1, 25.38% in Pot 2
Montenegro: 52.86% in Pot 2, 47.14% in Pot 1
France: 90.77% in Pot 2, 9.23% in Pot 1
Russia: 95.11% in Pot 2, 4.89% in Pot 1
Denmark: 100.00% in Pot 2
Slovenia: 100.00% in Pot 2
Serbia: 100.00% in Pot 2
Sweden: 95.78% in Pot 2, 4.22% in Pot 3
Slovakia: 93.00% in Pot 2, 7.00% in Pot 3
Turkey: 72.45% in Pot 2, 27.55% in Pot 3
Belgium: 77.17% in Pot 3, 22.82% in Pot 2, 0.01% in Pot 4
Switzerland: 85.83% in Pot 3, 14.17% in Pot 2
Israel: 98.49% in Pot 3, 1.51% in Pot 2
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 76.90% in Pot 3, 22.94% in Pot 4, 0.16% in Pot 2
Republic of Ireland: 99.88% in Pot 3, 0.11% in Pot 2, 0.01% in Pot 4
Czech Republic: 99.98% in Pot 3, 0.02% in Pot 4
Ukraine: 99.52% in Pot 3, 0.48% in Pot 4
Belarus: 74.16% in Pot 3, 25.84% in Pot 4
Hungary: 70.91% in Pot 3, 29.09% in Pot 4
Bulgaria: 64.82% in Pot 4, 35.18% in Pot 3
Romania: 86.32% in Pot 4, 12.49% in Pot 3, 1.19% in Pot 5
Albania: 87.96% in Pot 4, 12.04% in Pot 3
Lithuania: 91.55% in Pot 4, 8.45% in Pot 3
Georgia: 96.22% in Pot 4, 3.78% in Pot 3
Armenia: 53.71% in Pot 5, 42.78% in Pot 4, 3.51% in Pot 3
Austria: 54.56% in Pot 4, 42.56% in Pot 5, 2.88% in Pot 3
Latvia: 68.45% in Pot 5, 31.52% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 3
Estonia: 91.67% in Pot 5, 8.31% in Pot 4, 0.02% in Pot 3
Finland: 87.82% in Pot 5, 12.17% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Scotland: 99.85% in Pot 4, 0.15% in Pot 5
Northern Ireland: 97.95% in Pot 4, 2.05% in Pot 5
Poland: 70.33% in Pot 5, 29.67% in Pot 4
Moldova: 91.10% in Pot 5, 8.90% in Pot 4
FYR Macedonia: 91.99% in Pot 5, 7.99% in Pot 4, 0.02% in Pot 6
Azerbaijan: 96.82% in Pot 5, 2.14% in Pot 6, 1.04% in Pot 4
Cyprus: 100.00% in Pot 5
Wales: 52.21% in Pot 5, 47.79% in Pot 6
Iceland: 64.04% in Pot 6, 35.96% in Pot 5
Faroe Islands: 87.51% in Pot 6, 12.49% in Pot 5
Luxembourg: 98.50% in Pot 6, 1.50% in Pot 5
Kazakhstan: 100.00% in Pot 6
Liechtenstein: 100.00% in Pot 6
Malta: 100.00% in Pot 6
Andorra: 100.00% in Pot 6
San Marino: 100.00% in Pot 6

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (3 June 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
99.97% - Italy
96.22% - Croatia
86.52% - Portugal
81.41% - Norway
74.62% - Greece
47.14% - Montenegro
9.23% - France
4.89% - Russia

Pot 2

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Slovenia
100.00% - Serbia
95.78% - Sweden
95.11% - Russia
93.00% - Slovakia
90.77% - France
72.45% - Turkey
52.86% - Montenegro
25.38% - Greece
22.82% - Belgium
18.59% - Norway
14.17% - Switzerland
13.48% - Portugal
3.78% - Croatia
1.51% - Israel
0.16% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.11% - Republic of Ireland
0.03% - Italy

Pot 3

99.98% - Czech Republic
99.88% - Republic of Ireland
99.52% - Ukraine
98.49% - Israel
85.83% - Switzerland
77.17% - Belgium
76.90% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
74.16% - Belarus
70.91% - Hungary
35.18% - Bulgaria
27.55% - Turkey
12.49% - Romania
12.04% - Albania
8.45% - Lithuania
7.00% - Slovakia
4.22% - Sweden
3.78% - Georgia
3.51% - Armenia
2.88% - Austria
0.03% - Latvia
0.02% - Estonia
0.01% - Finland

Pot 4

99.85% - Scotland
97.95% - Northern Ireland
96.22% - Georgia
91.55% - Lithuania
87.96% - Albania
86.32% - Romania
64.82% - Bulgaria
54.56% - Austria
42.78% - Armenia
31.52% - Latvia
29.67% - Poland
29.09% - Hungary
25.84% - Belarus
22.94% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
12.17% - Finland
8.90% - Moldova
8.31% - Estonia
7.99% - FYR Macedonia
1.04% - Azerbaijan
0.48% - Ukraine
0.02% - Czech Republic
0.01% - Republic of Ireland
0.01% - Belgium

Pot 5

100.00% - Cyprus
96.82% - Azerbaijan
91.99% - FYR Macedonia
91.67% - Estonia
91.10% - Moldova
87.82% - Finland
70.33% - Poland
68.45% - Latvia
53.71% - Armenia
52.21% - Wales
42.56% - Austria
35.96% - Iceland
12.49% - Faroe Islands
2.05% - Northern Ireland
1.50% - Luxembourg
1.19% - Romania
0.15% - Scotland

Pot 6

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Liechtenstein
100.00% - Malta
100.00% - Andorra
100.00% - San Marino
98.50% - Luxembourg
87.51% - Faroe Islands
64.04% - Iceland
47.79% - Wales
2.14% - Azerbaijan
0.02% - FYR Macedonia

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.