FIFA will publish the next ranking only on August 12th. This means that all matches played in the extended June window for World Cup qualifying in AFC, CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, together with the CONCACAF Nations League Finals and all friendlies, plus all matches from three complete continental final tournaments (EURO, Copa America and Gold Cup) all will count for this ranking.
Here is a second preview of the probable August 2021 ranking.
Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including August 1st, used to calculate the August 2021 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.
Also the already played matches since May 24th, (probably) counting for the August ranking, are presented.
The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA is given for each match in %.
FIFA will publish the next ranking only on August 12th. This means that all matches played in the extended June window for World Cup qualifying in AFC, CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, together with the CONCACAF Nations League Finals and all friendlies, plus all matches from three complete continental final tournaments (EURO, Copa America and Gold Cup) all will count for this ranking. In total this August ranking will include around 355 matches.
A lot of changes are to be expected. Here is the current ranking, after the round of 16 in the EURO 2021 and the group phase of the Copa America. Just as a reminder: teams can't lose points in knock-out matches of final tournaments.
FIFA will publish the next ranking only on August 12th. This means that all matches played in the extended June window for World Cup qualifying in AFC, CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, together with the CONCACAF Nations League Finals and all friendlies, plus all matches from three complete continental final tournaments (EURO, Copa America and Gold Cup) all will count for this ranking. Movements in the ranking should be guaranteed, one would think.
Here is the probable August 2021 ranking.
Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including August 1st, used to calculate the August 2021 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.
Also the already played matches since May 24th, (probably) counting for the August ranking, are presented.
The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA is given for each match in %.
The situation in the second round of AFC qualifying has changed somewhat with the withdrawal after 6 match days of North Korea and the decision of AFC/FIFA to annul their matches and disregard the matches against the group number 5 in all other groups when determining the group runners-up table. Remember that -besides the 8 group winners- the top 4 of the group runners-up qualify for the third and final qualification round (or top 5 if Qatar is a group winner or belongs to the top 4 group runners-up).
Furthermore 4 matches have already been played between the last simulations in January this year and today, in which Qatar and Saudi Arabia won and Japan already secured passage to the third round as group winner. These simulations were made today (June 5th), right before the Saudi Arabia - Yemen match.
Next Thursday May 27th FIFA publishes the May ranking. Since the March window no matches are played. Only for coming Sunday (the last day before the deadline of the May ranking) two matches are scheduled. Both are friendlies and it's not even certain they will count for the ranking.
It beats me why FIFA decided to publish a ranking while it could be easily foreseen that only a few friendlies could be included. In the months of April and May the domestic competitions finish in Europe and there simply is no room to play NT-football.
And then the contrast with the next ranking. For the next August ranking already 338 matches are scheduled, including three continental final tournaments, a bunch of World Cup qualifiers and plenty of (preparatory) friendlies.
