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Tuesday, June 6, 2023

FIFA ranking: July 2023 probable ranking

The July 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday July 20th, will only be the second ranking of 2023. It seems FIFA decided from now on to publish a ranking only after a NT window has been completed. In this case, immediately following the June window, the Gold Cup will be played so the publication was delayed a bit more to mid July to be able to include that continental final tournament.


In the upcoming June window the following tournaments will be played, besides a lot of friendlies:

  • the inaugural Central Asian Nations Cup in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan;
  • matchday 5 in the group stage of the African Cup of Nations 2023 qualification;
  • the Final Four of the UEFA Nations League in the Netherlands;
  • the Final Four of the CONCACAF Nations League in the USA;
  • the final qualification round for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023, three paths of semi final and final play-offs to determine the last three participants for the final tournament which will start one week later;
  • matchdays 3 and 4 in the group stage of the UEFA EURO 2024 qualification;
  • the South Asian Championship in India;
  • the CONCACAF Gold Cup in the USA (with 1 match in Canada);
  • the COSAFA Cup in South Africa (no match schedule published yet, a schedule for the group stage matches has been assumed to be able to compile this preview).

Here is the probable July 2023 ranking. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 222 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 235 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Jul.

team

pts Jul.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1843,73

0

2,80

2

France

1843,54

0

5,09

3

Brazil

1838,37

0

4,16

4

Belgium

1800,96

0

8,43

5

England

1797,37

0

4,94

6

Netherlands

1754,91

0

23,68

7

Croatia

1730,02

0

0

8

USA

1728,47

5

74,70

9

Italy

1720,30

-1

6,64

10

Portugal

1718,44

-1

11,22

11

Spain

1689,84

-1

6,99

12

Mexico

1689,63

3

57,76

13

Morocco

1685,42

-2

7,63

14

Switzerland

1673,62

-2

9,38

15

Germany

1655,09

-1

7,67

16

Uruguay

1633,13

0

1,84

17

Senegal

1615,01

1

1,80

18

Colombia

1615,00

-1

-2,08

19

Denmark

1609,87

0

15,34

20

Japan

1590,91

0

2,32

21

Peru

1561,25

0

0,05

22

Poland

1557,06

1

3,30

23

Iran

1557,03

1

3,80

24

Serbia

1551,78

1

10,26

25

Sweden

1546,81

-3

-11,89

26

Wales

1542,94

0

3,99

27

Tunisia

1541,72

1

5,96

28

Korea Republic

1539,26

-1

3,25

29

Ukraine

1537,43

1

7,39

30

Australia

1530,45

-1

-2,34

31

Hungary

1516,76

2

12,52

32

Austria

1515,86

0

7,62

33

Chile

1511,31

-2

-0,01

34

Algeria

1511,18

0

6,99

35

Costa Rica

1509,71

4

18,59

36

Egypt

1508,71

-1

8,04

37

Scotland

1508,01

-1

7,49

38

Czech Republic

1503,58

0

8,54

39

Russia

1495,53

-2

0

40

Canada

1488,30

7

45,64

41

Ecuador

1486,57

0

8,44

42

Nigeria

1486,48

-2

5,68

43

Turkey

1472,56

0

6,86

44

Norway

1470,75

0

6,98

45

Cameroon

1468,47

-3

-1,74

46

Cote d'Ivoire

1458,53

-1

8,58

47

Paraguay

1442,63

1

1,98

48

Greece

1441,06

4

8,05

49

Mali

1438,01

4

7,26

50

Slovakia

1434,66

1

0,89

51

Burkina Faso

1431,56

-1

-2,35

52

Romania

1431,48

-6

-13,10

53

Republic of Ireland

1426,26

-4

-10,05

54

Saudi Arabia

1421,46

0

0

55

Finland

1419,47

1

14,16

56

Panama

1418,34

2

19,11

57

Venezuela

1417,19

-2

6,72

58

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1406,21

-1

3,17

59

Ghana

1403,63

1

7,62

60

Jamaica

1394,99

3

13,12

61

Qatar

1388,12

0

-0,49

62

Northern Ireland

1386,17

0

0,24

63

Slovenia

1378,54

-4

-19,93

64

Iceland

1365,29

0

-3,74

65

Albania

1357,39

3

12,44

66

North Macedonia

1350,45

-1

-12,62

67

South Africa

1348,90

-1

-1,18

68

Iraq

1345,21

-1

-2,63

69

Oman

1341,35

4

7,81

70

Cape Verde Islands

1337,27

1

0,22

71

United Arab Emirates

1336,28

1

0

72

Montenegro

1331,06

-3

-12,22

73

Uzbekistan

1329,60

1

11,24

74

Congo DR

1325,11

-4

-13,50

75

Israel

1323,81

3

16,40

76

Bulgaria

1315,24

0

-0,50

77

Georgia

1312,54

0

1,03

78

Gabon

1310,25

4

13,51

79

China PR

1304,78

2

6,80

80

Guinea

1296,75

-1

-9,17

81

Bolivia

1295,09

2

-1,33

82

Jordan

1291,34

2

-1,92

83

Haiti

1290,44

4

14,48

84

El Salvador

1286,71

-9

-31,59

85

Bahrain

1282,05

0

0

86

Zambia

1276,38

0

-4,14

87

Curacao

1270,60

1

-1,66

88

Honduras

1259,25

-8

-41,13

89

Uganda

1250,32

0

-6,98

90

Syria

1246,62

0

-0,13

91

Luxembourg

1242,53

0

-3,25

92

Benin

1235,63

0

-4,82

93

Vietnam

1233,23

2

3,54

94

Palestine

1233,02

-1

-6,17

95

Armenia

1228,17

2

4,09

96

Equatorial Guinea

1226,83

-2

-5,95

97

Kyrgyzstan

1220,87

-1

-4,57

98

Lebanon

1210,63

1

7,89

99

India

1209,88

2

9,22

100

Kenya

1207,17

2

6,99

101

Kosovo

1204,69

6

18,43

102

Namibia

1202,02

4

11,53

103

New Zealand

1200,78

-3

-0,28

104

Mauritania

1192,81

1

-1,47

105

Congo

1190,63

-2

-7,26

106

Belarus

1187,28

-8

-22,89

107

Guatemala

1182,78

9

18,14

108

Estonia

1179,39

0

-3,11

109

Thailand

1179,32

5

7,44

110

Guinea-Bissau

1178,93

3

6,63

111

Tajikistan

1177,04

-2

-5,20

112

Madagascar

1173,59

-2

-7,62

113

Kazakhstan

1173,24

-1

-3,81

114

Korea DPR

1169,96

1

0

115

Trinidad and Tobago

1167,71

-11

-29,90

116

Cyprus

1163,95

-5

-15,50

117

Angola

1161,69

1

3,12

118

Gambia

1159,82

2

8,83

119

Mozambique

1156,87

0

2,23

120

Sierra Leone

1156,11

-3

-5,68

121

Central African Republic

1146,00

1

0,31

122

Azerbaijan

1143,22

2

0,97

123

Tanzania

1138,79

7

12,90

124

Zimbabwe

1138,56

2

0

125

Malawi

1135,01

2

0,37

126

Sudan

1134,10

2

1,48

127

Libya

1130,75

-6

-15,07

128

Niger

1129,67

-5

-12,90

129

Togo

1128,38

0

-1,43

130

Faroe Islands

1126,30

-5

-12,68

131

Comoros

1107,57

0

-4,32

132

Antigua and Barbuda

1107,51

1

0

133

Philippines

1105,61

3

7,94

134

Rwanda

1101,96

1

1,29

135

Solomon Islands

1097,61

-1

-6,00

136

Latvia

1095,62

-4

-14,93

137

Malaysia

1091,57

1

9,44

138

Turkmenistan

1087,35

-1

-7,85

139

Suriname

1086,07

2

10,35

140

Kuwait

1080,17

3

8,25

141

Ethiopia

1074,01

1

1,02

142

St. Kitts and Nevis

1073,28

-3

-8,12

143

Eswatini

1068,05

1

-1,84

144

Burundi

1060,06

1

-9,65

145

Lithuania

1057,79

1

-10,74

146

Nicaragua

1053,00

-6

-26,17

147

Liberia

1049,94

1

0

148

Hong Kong

1049,78

-1

-7,25

149

Botswana

1049,43

3

12,12

150

Indonesia

1047,46

-1

1,32

151

Lesotho

1045,59

-1

-0,43

152

Dominican Republic

1036,74

-1

-1,39

153

Maldives

1024,54

1

-0,18

154

Andorra

1022,30

-1

-8,22

155

Yemen

1020,37

2

0

156

Afghanistan

1020,32

-1

-2,72

157

Singapore

1014,78

1

0,74

158

Chinese Taipei

1013,23

-2

-7,79

159

Papua New Guinea

1003,28

0

-4,18

160

Myanmar

1000,26

0

1,85

161

New Caledonia

995,58

0

0

162

Tahiti

995,11

0

0

163

Vanuatu

986,39

1

-0,26

164

South Sudan

984,53

-1

-8,83

165

Barbados

981,73

2

-2,32

166

Guyana

980,61

4

4,80

167

Fiji

980,48

1

0

168

St. Lucia

978,91

1

0

169

Cuba

975,34

-4

-10,86

170

Puerto Rico

975,05

-4

-10,36

171

Malta

967,89

1

-4,90

172

Bermuda

966,27

1

0

173

Moldova

965,69

-2

-7,22

174

Nepal

955,53

0

-7,57

175

Cambodia

952,97

1

4,38

176

Grenada

948,27

-1

-12,13

177

Belize

939,96

0

0

178

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

938,28

0

0

179

Montserrat

938,02

0

0

180

Mauritius

931,00

0

-1,02

181

Chad

930,22

0

0

182

Macau

913,68

0

-4,25

183

Dominica

904,88

3

0

184

Mongolia

903,76

-1

-7,98

185

Bhutan

900,60

0

-5,76

186

American Samoa

900,27

1

0

187

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

900,07

-3

-6,63

188

Laos

899,58

0

0

189

Cook Islands

899,33

0

0

190

Samoa

894,26

0

0

191

Brunei Darussalam

891,12

0

0

192

Bangladesh

879,21

0

-4,67

193

Djibouti

868,30

0

-6,75

194

Tonga

861,81

0

0

195

Timor-Leste

860,45

1

0

196

Cayman Islands

859,83

2

0

197

Seychelles

856,62

0

-3,51

198

Eritrea

855,56

2

0

199

Pakistan

854,95

-4

-6,23

200

Somalia

854,72

1

0

201

Bahamas

852,87

2

0

202

Gibraltar

851,64

-1

-3,08

203

Aruba

850,88

1

0

204

Liechtenstein

848,78

-5

-6,99

205

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,39

0

0

206

Guam

838,33

0

0

207

Sri Lanka

825,25

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

816,59

0

0

209

British Virgin Islands

804,11

0

0

210

Anguilla

785,69

0

0

211

San Marino

753,11

0

-6,01



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

12 comments:

  1. Hi Ed. Will Tonga be removed from the ranking this month? I suppose they would be reinserted after the pacific games in december.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Andrea, well spotted! That could certainly be the case. Tonga's last match, counting for the FIFA ranking, was played in July 2019 in the South Pacific Games. And teams that haven't played a match in 4 years are removed from the ranking.
    The same goes by the way for American Samoa and Samoa.

    Other teams with last included matches played in 2019:
    Eritrea september 2019
    Korea DPR november 2019

    ReplyDelete
  3. These rankings should be pretty influential, as they'll be the basis for the draw for several confederations' qualifying tournaments. So this last window of games could be relatively influential for a number of countries that could jump into the next pot for seedings

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ed, FIFA seem to have published a June 2023 ranking anyway... do you have any idea what the deal is here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for this info! Indeed, they have published an intermediate June ranking, out of the blue!

      I suspect it is specifically published for the African draw of their qualification campaign for WC 2026, scheduled on July 12th. They could not use the official July ranking then for seeding because it isn't available at that moment and should have based the seeding on the last available April ranking. But that ranking didn't incorporate the complete MD5 of AFCON 2023 qualifying that was played this June.

      Now, with this choice they obviously neglect the matches played for the COSAFA Cup 2023, starting July 5th to July 16th. These matches have a small I-factor of only 5 anyway.

      Delete
  5. FIFA RANKING no matches UZBEK-Iran, Oman-KYRGIZ ???

    ReplyDelete
  6. As far as I can see in a quick glance FIFA has excluded all matches played after June 20th: so no matches for Gold Cup or South Asian Championship are included in this intermediate ranking. Furthermore, (indeed) the final and third place match of the Central Asian Nations Cup are excluded (these matches were played on the 20th) and also the final of the friendly Intercontinental Cup between India and Lebanon on the 18th is excluded.
    I assume these matches will be included in the official July ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hello there, Ed. I just cant seem to figure out why Jamaica lost 14 points according to June rankings. I've tried to calculate it myself, and estimated it too using your "probable results" post, and they should only lose around 11 points max from the losses against Qatar and Jordan. Jamaica also didn't play any other matches before that. Where are those three points losses come from?

    ReplyDelete
  8. I've got the same problem. Jamaica lost to Qatar and Jordan which cost them 11 points. I don't seee where the other three points come from.

    Also, it seems that FIFA also excluded the Germany vs Ukraine on June 11th. Someone mentioned on Twitter that it might be because FIFA's international match calendar says "maximum two games per window", but I doubt that's the reason. Mexico, for example, played three games before the window (USA, Guatemala and Cameroon) and two in the window (USA and Panama). It would be weird if FIFA said "you can only play two games, if you play more, they won't count; but you can play as many games as you want outside the window and those will count".

    If anyone knows why that GER vs UKR was excluded, please let us know.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Kyrgyzstan 3–0 (Awarded) Afghanistan ,The match was abandoned in the 97th minute with Kyrgyzstan leading 1–0 after Afghanistan walked off and refused to continue. The match was awarded 3–0 to Kyrgyzstan . this is CAFA's decisions, not FIFA. friendly match (forfeited) does it counts? Qatar-New Zealand Match was abandoned at halftime,no forfeited,not included?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Qatar vs New Zealand was not included.

    ReplyDelete
  11. After a more thorough research I see the following differences between FIFA's intermediate June ranking and my calculated intermediate result with all matches up until June 20th included in this intermediate ranking.

    FIFA excluded and I included:
    2023-06-10 Panama - Nicaragua 3:2 friendly in Panama;
    2023-06-12 Germany - Ukraine 3:3 friendly in Germany (don't know the reason why but I can't imagine 'a max. 2 friendly matches per window'-rule);
    2023-06-13 Curacao - Puerto Rico 0:0 friendly in USA (was played behind closed doors, although essentially that's not a formal reason to exclude);
    2023-06-14 Congo DR - Uganda 1:0 friendly in Cameroon;
    2023-06-14 Lesotho - Togo 0:2 friendly in South Africa;
    2023-06-14 Mozambique - Malawi 1:1 friendly in Mozambique.

    Matches that FIFA for now excluded but I expect to be included after all in the July ranking, because earlier matches in these tournaments were already included in the June ranking:
    2023-06-18 India - Lebanon 2:0 final in friendly tournament (Intercontinental Cup) in India;
    2023-06-20 Oman - Kyrgyzstan 1:0 3rd place play-off Central Asian Nations Cup in Uzbekistan;
    2023-06-20 Uzbekistan - Iran 0:1 final Central Asian Nations Cup in Uzbekistan.

    FIFA included and I excluded:
    2023-06-11 Djibouti - Kenya (3:0) friendly tournament in Mauritius (Kenya didn't show up, awarded 3:0 to DJI);
    2023-06-15 Kuwait - Sudan 2:1 friendly in Egypt.

    Other remarks:
    2023-06-11 Kyrgyzstan - Afghanistan 3:0 Central Asian Nations Cup group stage (abandoned by AFG at 1:0 at 97th minute, awarded 3:0 to KGZ) is included;
    2023-06-19 Qatar - New Zealand 0:1 friendly (abandoned by NZL at half time because of racial abuse) is excluded.

    The friendly Jamaica - Trinidad and Tobago (0:1 played on 2023-03-11) was excluded from the April ranking but now included in the June ranking after all. This is done by calculating the exchanged points for this now included friendly with the starting points of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago on the moment this decision to include was taken (let's say, at the start of the June window, because I don't know the exact date). The exchanged points (from Jamaica to Trinidad and Tobago) are 3.349. The first matches of both teams in the June window (2023-06-11 friendly GUA-TRI 0:1 and 2023-06-15 friendly QAT-JAM 2:1) are then calculated with adapted starting points.

    With these adaptations FIFA's published intermediate ranking can be approached best. I don't say 'can be matched exactly' because I still have 0.01 differences for 4 teams (Mexico, Uruguay, Guatemala and Ethiopia) that I can't find a reasonable explanation for, but I decided to accept that.

    ReplyDelete