Next update: July/August 2014.
The preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place in Saint Petersburg on either 24 or 25 July 2015.
Assumption: same formats used for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.
Based on the 2014 preliminary draw, the FIFA ranking used to seed the
teams from AFC, CAF and UEFA will be the July 2015 edition, while for
the CONCACAF teams the March 2015 ranking will be used.
This means we already have 25% of the final formula (even more for CONCACAF teams), as the 0.3 time frame closed a couple of days ago. See previous update.
Friday, July 26, 2013
July 2013: Recommended friendly impact
The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the July FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.
The most popular opponent for the month of June is Central African Republic - the best opponent for no less than 106 teams.
Of the top 20, only Germany, Portugal, Uruguay, England, Russia and Mexico would have gained points. Of these only England would have climbed in the rankings - 2 spots by defeating Denmark. Despite losing 3 points by winning the hypothetical friendly against Croatia, Brazil would have climbed one spot, overtaking their opponents.
The most popular opponent for the month of June is Central African Republic - the best opponent for no less than 106 teams.
Of the top 20, only Germany, Portugal, Uruguay, England, Russia and Mexico would have gained points. Of these only England would have climbed in the rankings - 2 spots by defeating Denmark. Despite losing 3 points by winning the hypothetical friendly against Croatia, Brazil would have climbed one spot, overtaking their opponents.
Friday, July 19, 2013
FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable ranking (II)
FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
At least three teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Bosnia-Herzegovina (13 - 14 in July 2013)
Dominican Republic (at least 89 - 90 in July 2013)
Philippines (141 - 143 in November 2012)
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
At least three teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Bosnia-Herzegovina (13 - 14 in July 2013)
Dominican Republic (at least 89 - 90 in July 2013)
Philippines (141 - 143 in November 2012)
FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable results (II)
Here are the probable results used for the August 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
FIFA Ranking: August 2013 preview (II)
FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
92 - Cameroon
49 - El Salvador
40 - Ecuador
33 - Trinidad and Tobago
33 - Suriname
31 - Lebanon
30 - Botswana
25 - Dominican Republic
24 - Vanuatu
22 - Turkmenistan
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
92 - Cameroon
49 - El Salvador
40 - Ecuador
33 - Trinidad and Tobago
33 - Suriname
31 - Lebanon
30 - Botswana
25 - Dominican Republic
24 - Vanuatu
22 - Turkmenistan
July 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Fiji | 191 | 122 | 69 |
| Syria | 143 | 83 | 60 |
| South Sudan | 198 | 139 | 59 |
| Korea DPR | 112 | 58 | 54 |
| Vanuatu | 189 | 144 | 45 |
| Kuwait | 110 | 72 | 38 |
| Gambia | 164 | 128 | 36 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 180 | 147 | 33 |
| Eritrea | 196 | 164 | 32 |
| Papua New Guinea | 197 | 165 | 32 |
Friday, July 12, 2013
FIFA Ranking: Excel file with FIFA points since March 2009
For all those looking to kick-start their FIFA ranking calculations, Jeroen (one of visitors of this blog) has provided an Excel file with all the FIFA match points since March 2009.
Enjoy!
Enjoy!
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