CAF decided to use the April FIFA ranking to seed the continental showpiece, contrary to the previous CAF-tournaments.
Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
The group results, ordered by average group position:
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Group D is a strong group. As always in Africa lots of groups where teams have very even probabilities to advance. Senegal's group C seems like a lucky draw. In group A a hard fight for second place after Egypt can be anticipated.
Round of 16
Senegal | 92,76 |
Nigeria | 92,53 |
Tunisia | 87,75 |
Morocco | 86,10 |
Ghana | 85,22 |
Egypt | 83,79 |
Cameroon | 83,16 |
Mali | 76,17 |
Cote d'Ivoire | 74,50 |
Algeria | 73,21 |
South Africa | 70,41 |
Guinea | 68,46 |
Congo DR | 67,83 |
Uganda | 59,04 |
Zimbabwe | 58,73 |
Benin | 57,78 |
Mauritania | 53,10 |
Burundi | 52,78 |
Kenya | 51,43 |
Madagascar | 51,31 |
Angola | 50,45 |
Tanzania | 46,10 |
Guinea-Bissau | 40,71 |
Namibia | 36,68 |
Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)
Senegal | 71,32 | [76,89] | |
Nigeria | 66,05 | [71,38] | |
Morocco | 62,08 | [72,10] | |
Egypt | 61,04 | [72,85] | |
Ghana | 53,14 | [62,36] | |
Cameroon | 50,60 | [60,85] | |
Tunisia | 46,94 | [53,49] | |
Cote d'Ivoire | 43,56 | [58,47] | |
South Africa | 37,99 | [53,96] | |
Congo DR | 37,80 | [55,73] | |
Uganda | 34,50 | [58,43] | |
Algeria | 33,11 | [45,23] | |
Zimbabwe | 28,61 | [48,71] | |
Mali | 27,39 | [35,96] | |
Guinea | 26,61 | [38,87] | |
Benin | 20,40 | [35,31] | |
Burundi | 15,48 | [29,33] | |
Kenya | 14,11 | [27,44] | |
Madagascar | 13,62 | [26,54] | |
Tanzania | 12,03 | [26,10] | |
Mauritania | 11,91 | [22,43] | |
Angola | 11,18 | [22,16] | |
Namibia | 10,52 | [28,68] | |
Guinea-Bissau | 10,01 | [24,59] |
Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)
Senegal | 49,55 | [69,48] | |
Nigeria | 45,23 | [68,48] | |
Morocco | 39,49 | [63,61] | |
Egypt | 32,72 | [53,60] | |
Ghana | 28,31 | [53,27] | |
Cameroon | 25,10 | [49,60] | |
Tunisia | 23,72 | [50,53] | |
Cote d'Ivoire | 22,43 | [51,49] | |
South Africa | 18,14 | [47,75] | |
Uganda | 17,02 | [49,33] | |
Congo DR | 16,95 | [44,84] | |
Algeria | 12,90 | [38,96] | |
Zimbabwe | 11,46 | [40,06] | |
Guinea | 10,76 | [40,44] | |
Mali | 10,75 | [39,25] | |
Benin | 6,64 | [32,55] | |
Burundi | 5,31 | [34,30] | |
Madagascar | 4,76 | [34,95] | |
Kenya | 4,37 | [30,97] | |
Tanzania | 3,53 | [29,34] | |
Mauritania | 2,87 | [24,10] | |
Angola | 2,76 | [24,69] | |
Namibia | 2,74 | [26,05] | |
Guinea-Bissau | 2,49 | [24,88] |
Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)
Senegal | 35,30 | [71,24] | |
Morocco | 26,06 | [65,99] | |
Nigeria | 25,11 | [55,52] | |
Egypt | 16,38 | [50,06] | |
Tunisia | 13,24 | [55,82] | |
Ghana | 12,63 | [44,61] | |
Cote d'Ivoire | 11,39 | [50,78] | |
Cameroon | 10,94 | [43,59] | |
South Africa | 8,32 | [45,87] | |
Uganda | 7,49 | [44,01] | |
Congo DR | 6,63 | [39,12] | |
Algeria | 5,26 | [40,78] | |
Mali | 4,34 | [40,37] | |
Zimbabwe | 3,57 | [31,15] | |
Guinea | 3,27 | [30,39] | |
Benin | 1,88 | [28,31] | |
Burundi | 1,51 | [28,44] | |
Kenya | 1,40 | [32,04] | |
Madagascar | 1,35 | [28,36] | |
Tanzania | 0,96 | [27,20] | |
Namibia | 0,88 | [32,12] | |
Mauritania | 0,80 | [27,87] | |
Angola | 0,66 | [23,91] | |
Guinea-Bissau | 0,63 | [25,30] |
Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)
Senegal | 22,66 | [64,19] | |
Morocco | 15,20 | [58,33] | |
Nigeria | 14,30 | [56,95] | |
Egypt | 8,20 | [50,06] | |
Tunisia | 6,26 | [47,28] | |
Ghana | 5,92 | [46,87] | |
Cote d'Ivoire | 5,29 | [46,44] | |
Cameroon | 4,62 | [42,23] | |
Uganda | 3,23 | [43,12] | |
South Africa | 2,94 | [35,34] | |
Congo DR | 2,30 | [34,69] | |
Algeria | 2,10 | [39,92] | |
Mali | 1,43 | [32,95] | |
Zimbabwe | 1,30 | [36,41] | |
Guinea | 1,11 | [33,94] | |
Benin | 0,66 | [35,11] | |
Burundi | 0,55 | [36,42] | |
Madagascar | 0,46 | [34,07] | |
Kenya | 0,37 | [26,43] | |
Namibia | 0,29 | [32,95] | |
Tanzania | 0,25 | [26,04] | |
Guinea-Bissau | 0,22 | [34,92] | |
Mauritania | 0,20 | [25,00] | |
Angola | 0,14 | [21,21] |
The FIFA-ranking of July shall probably be used to seed the draw for the first round of CAF qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar, to be played in September. FIFA has decided to postpone the publication of their July ranking with one week to July 25th to accommodate the complete AFCON 2019.
The average position amongst African teams in the July 2019 FIFA-ranking:
Last time around the first qualification round consisted of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams.
The average position amongst African teams in the July 2019 FIFA-ranking:
Senegal | 1,495 |
Tunisia | 2,543 |
Nigeria | 4,234 |
Morocco | 4,687 |
Ghana | 5,654 |
Congo DR | 6,573 |
Cameroon | 7,266 |
Egypt | 7,774 |
Burkina Faso | 8,998 |
Cote d'Ivoire | 9,999 |
Mali | 10,741 |
Algeria | 12,172 |
Guinea | 12,603 |
South Africa | 12,767 |
Cape Verde Islands | 14,508 |
Uganda | 15,725 |
Zambia | 16,337 |
Gabon | 18,293 |
Benin | 19,077 |
Congo | 19,508 |
Niger | 22,714 |
Mauritania | 23,745 |
Libya | 23,801 |
Zimbabwe | 24,476 |
Kenya | 24,851 |
Madagascar | 25,025 |
---- seeded in 1st round | |
Central African Republic | 26,617 |
Namibia | 27,842 |
Sierra Leone | 28,587 |
Mozambique | 29,918 |
Guinea-Bissau | 30,199 |
Angola | 30,859 |
Togo | 33,296 |
Malawi | 34,236 |
Tanzania | 34,809 |
Sudan | 35,955 |
Burundi | 36,205 |
Rwanda | 37,534 |
Lesotho | 39,202 |
Equatorial Guinea | 40,202 |
---- unseeded in 1st round | |
Eswatini | 40,300 |
Comoros | 41,754 |
Botswana | 42,922 |
Ethiopia | 44,000 |
Liberia | 45,000 |
Mauritius | 46,000 |
Gambia | 47,000 |
South Sudan | 48,000 |
Chad | 49,000 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 50,000 |
Seychelles | 51,000 |
Djibouti | 52,000 |
Eritrea | 53,000 |
Somalia | 54,000 |
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Hi ed
ReplyDeletehow many fifa points if Malaysia win vs timor laste...the first round of Asian world cup qualification
With two wins Malaysia gains 10,4 plus 10,0 = 20,4 pts for a new total of 1007 points in the June ranking.
ReplyDeleteThanks for info.
Deletethanks Ed
ReplyDeleteHEY MATE IF ALGERIA WIN AFICAN CUP AND WIN ALL GAMES TO FINAL
ReplyDeleteHOW MUCH HE WILL GAIN ,?
Hi Ed, I'm having trouble coming up with the ranking calculation of Oman's last two games. The last two opponents were Afghanistan on March 20th and Singapore on March 23rd.
ReplyDeleteThank you
Never mind I figured out the calculation.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Looking at group A, it is unlogical for me, that zimbabwe has a lower chance of becomming the group winner than uganda, but uganda has also the bigger chance of ending up in the last place.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIf Egypt reached the semi final of AFCON, will it be surely from top 5 teams before world Cup qualifiers seedings?
ReplyDelete