Here's the expected ranking given the expected results posted earlier today.
Updated 2025-10-05 07:33 UTC taking into account the awarded match (0-3) between South Africa and Lesotho from 2025-03-21.
Pos Country Rnk Pts +/- +/-
1 Spain 1880.76 0 5.39
2 France 1875.21 0 4.29
3 Argentina 1872.43 0 2.11
4 England 1824.37 0 3.92
5 Portugal 1790.50 0 10.95
6 Brazil 1768.89 0 7.30
7 Netherlands 1759.96 0 5.79
8 Belgium 1752.25 0 12.71
9 Croatia 1722.61 0 8.41
10 Italy 1717.15 0 7.08
11 Germany 1712.91 1 8.63
12 Morocco 1710.22 -1 3.95
13 Colombia 1695.81 0 3.71
14 Mexico 1692.43 0 4.05
15 United States 1678.40 1 8.36
16 Uruguay 1677.56 -1 3.91
17 Switzerland 1666.08 0 17.79
18 Senegal 1650.61 0 5.39
19 Denmark 1641.29 1 13.65
20 Japan 1640.30 -1 -0.17
21 Iran 1626.66 0 4.04
22 Austria 1611.98 0 10.12
23 South Korea 1593.88 0 0.68
24 Ecuador 1579.81 0 -8.23
25 Australia 1579.11 0 -4.38
26 Türkiye 1570.18 1 14.47
27 Ukraine 1555.36 1 12.30
28 Canada 1554.54 -2 -3.50
29 Panama 1540.54 0 10.84
30 Norway 1539.84 1 13.61
31 Serbia 1532.51 3 11.61
32 Egypt 1525.66 3 6.48
33 Poland 1523.84 3 6.54
34 Sweden 1521.75 -2 -2.87
35 Russia 1520.95 -2 -0.79
36 Wales 1519.07 -6 -10.02
37 Algeria 1510.26 1 9.52
38 Slovakia 1507.87 4 16.01
39 Czechia 1497.00 0 -3.29
40 Costa Rica 1496.05 7 14.92
41 Nigeria 1495.40 4 11.53
42 Paraguay 1493.20 -5 -7.82
43 Hungary 1492.42 -2 0.24
44 Scotland 1491.93 -1 6.85
45 Côte d'Ivoire 1491.78 -1 7.88
46 Tunisia 1491.23 0 8.21
47 Greece 1485.21 -7 -9.51
48 Qatar 1473.80 5 20.15
49 Peru 1469.31 0 0.00
50 Cameroon 1466.47 2 11.05
51 Venezuela 1464.32 -2 -0.69
52 Slovenia 1462.67 -2 -0.29
53 Mali 1455.54 2 9.71
54 Romania 1455.13 -3 -7.72
55 Uzbekistan 1450.31 -1 -3.00
56 Chile 1441.66 0 0.00
57 South Africa 1440.05 -2 -8.62
58 Iraq 1428.69 0 6.50
59 Saudi Arabia 1427.37 0 6.72
60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1421.32 0 13.72
61 Ireland 1401.18 0 3.66
62 Burkina Faso 1397.65 2 12.28
63 Jordan 1395.54 -1 4.20
64 Jamaica 1391.82 4 14.60
65 North Macedonia 1390.85 -2 2.36
66 Honduras 1384.02 -1 0.04
67 United Arab Emirates 1379.94 0 0.08
68 Cape Verde Islands 1376.37 2 13.16
69 Albania 1371.67 -3 -8.98
70 Georgia 1365.92 -2 -11.40
71 Finland 1360.27 0 1.56
72 Ghana 1356.67 3 15.83
73 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1353.79 0 9.54
74 Northern Ireland 1341.67 -2 -14.31
75 Iceland 1332.34 -1 -10.75
76 Gabon 1329.91 3 15.85
77 Israel 1324.57 -1 -12.83
78 Bolivia 1324.55 -1 -7.69
79 Montenegro 1322.78 0 8.73
80 Guinea 1317.72 1 18.23
81 Oman 1300.11 -3 -20.23
82 Zambia 1293.32 3 20.32
83 Uganda 1287.75 -1 0.14
84 New Zealand 1275.60 -1 -8.35
85 Syria 1272.71 7 13.40
86 Curaçao 1271.12 -2 -11.30
87 Haiti 1268.03 0 -1.20
88 Angola 1267.19 1 -1.53
88 Bahrain 1267.16 0 -1.57
90 Equatorial Guinea 1266.34 5 17.66
91 Bulgaria 1263.07 -5 -8.46
92 El Salvador 1260.57 -2 -7.18
93 Benin 1259.39 0 2.09
94 China 1249.06 0 0.00
95 Kosovo 1247.47 -4 -14.63
96 Guatemala 1241.22 2 10.49
97 Thailand 1235.36 4 13.17
98 Luxembourg 1232.28 -2 -10.33
99 Palestine 1230.55 0 0.00
100 Trinidad and Tobago 1229.31 2 8.32
101 Mozambique 1227.53 -4 -6.51
102 Tajikistan 1220.21 2 14.05
103 Belarus 1212.55 -3 -10.99
104 Armenia 1204.70 -1 -14.85
105 Kyrgyzstan 1201.22 0 0.00
106 Comoros 1192.40 -1 -9.43
107 Tanzania 1188.70 0 -10.75
108 Namibia 1187.36 1 3.56
109 Kenya 1185.55 2 3.91
110 Lebanon 1184.68 3 12.38
111 Vietnam 1183.62 3 13.70
112 Madagascar 1181.22 -4 -6.38
113 Mauritania 1179.20 -3 -4.08
114 Libya 1178.00 -2 -1.57
115 Gambia 1162.12 0 -3.81
116 Malaysia 1161.53 7 13.30
117 Sudan 1157.11 -1 -6.44
118 Kazakhstan 1155.72 0 -2.33
119 Togo 1152.85 1 1.77
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Niger 1149.78 -4 -10.54
122 Sierra Leone 1149.10 0 -1.01
123 Indonesia 1144.73 -4 -13.21
124 Azerbaijan 1142.25 -1 -5.84
125 Zimbabwe 1138.31 0 4.56
126 Estonia 1134.75 3 7.55
127 India 1133.57 7 19.78
128 Guinea-Bissau 1132.73 2 5.92
129 Malawi 1130.34 -3 -3.26
130 Cyprus 1125.11 -2 -2.99
131 Congo 1118.36 2 -1.41
131 Rwanda 1118.09 -4 -15.41
133 Surinam 1111.06 -2 -14.15
134 Nicaragua 1107.02 -2 -13.76
135 Turkmenistan 1102.09 3 14.13
136 Kuwait 1100.38 0 0.00
137 Latvia 1096.70 0 7.89
138 Central African Republic 1083.57 2 2.21
139 Faroe Islands 1082.58 -3 -11.88
140 Philippines 1081.44 3 15.09
141 Dominican Republic 1073.54 1 -0.91
142 Botswana 1072.06 -3 -15.21
143 Hong Kong 1065.04 4 17.68
144 Burundi 1060.22 -3 -16.83
145 Lithuania 1055.58 0 -9.76
146 Liberia 1048.03 -2 -17.58
147 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
148 New Caledonia 1042.62 3 3.07
149 St. Kitts and Nevis 1041.53 0 0.00
150 Yemen 1040.13 4 18.88
151 Lesotho 1039.95 2 5.85
152 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
153 Fiji 1035.11 0 0.00
154 Ethiopia 1030.76 -6 -15.66
155 Puerto Rico 1020.07 0 -0.37
156 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
157 Afghanistan 1015.66 4 16.78
158 Moldova 1007.70 -2 -11.51
159 Eswatini 998.40 0 -11.65
160 Singapore 993.56 -2 -19.78
161 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
162 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
163 Myanmar 990.75 -3 -13.40
164 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
165 Grenada 981.47 3 3.07
166 Cuba 980.01 1 -0.33
167 Malta 979.26 -1 -3.17
168 Bermuda 977.10 -3 -11.62
169 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
170 South Sudan 966.20 -1 -10.36
171 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 962.77 1 0.34
172 Maldives 954.53 -1 -14.05
173 Taiwan 947.64 0 -13.17
174 Andorra 942.93 0 -11.75
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Chad 913.87 -2 -11.95
178 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
179 Nepal 909.32 -3 -13.70
180 Belize 903.40 1 -1.05
181 Mauritius 902.78 -2 -9.47
182 Dominica 901.37 0 0.00
183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
184 Brunei 881.74 -1 -18.88
185 Bangladesh 881.56 -1 -17.68
186 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
187 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
188 Laos 877.05 -3 -13.30
189 Bhutan 876.56 -3 -12.38
190 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
195 Djibouti 847.89 -2 -8.02
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.17 0 -8.59
197 Timor Leste 840.27 -2 -15.09
198 Sri Lanka 838.17 0 -14.13
199 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
200 Gibraltar 823.35 1 -3.84
200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
202 Somalia 818.59 0 -6.17
203 Pakistan 812.63 -3 -16.78
204 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.33 -1 -7.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 802.09 -2 -6.39
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 765.41 0 -3.09
210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00
211 San Marino 727.77 0 -5.46
How will the South Africa's forfeit loss to Lesotho be treated with respect to ranking points?
ReplyDeleteOh, I hadn’t seen that yet. South Africa will be deducted points, and as it is a few rankings ago it’ll probably be a case of some fewer points deducted than we would normally see if past cases are anything to go by. Will factor that in and regenerate the expected ranking.
DeleteSo only the points for Lesotho and South Africa will be readjusted before the October window starts? The points of teams who played them in between March and September will not be readjusted? I guess what I'm asking is, does FIFA go back in the time and pretends that Lesotho won the game back in March, and readjusts the whole table with new point exchanges that would have happened had this indeed been the case?
DeleteWell, I've been doing this calculation for many, many years, and I have never seen ranking data of other teams in between getting adjusted. I guess while this would be logical, it would mean that an already published ranking would be changed so that's probably why they don't do that. So I'm assuming, and have always assumed, with the ranking data matching apart from like very small number differences many digits after the decimal point, that only the teams involved get adjusted. But unless FIFA publishes something about it we'll never know.
Delete